Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (22 May 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	119 km/h	0.2 m	137 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	21 May 2024 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	21 May 2024 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	21 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

705 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania	8,722

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 May 2024 00:00	112	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	18 May 2024 06:00	162	110 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
9	18 May 2024 12:00	329	50 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
10	18 May 2024 18:00	229	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	125	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	161	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	230	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	21 May 2024 06:00	136	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	21 May 2024 12:00	171	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	21 May 2024 18:00	225	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Kipini, Kenya. This height is estimated for 22 May 2024 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 May 2024 00:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 18:45	Mida	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 18:45	Watamu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 18:45	Malindi	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 18:45	Kilifi	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 18:45	Takaungu	Kenya	0.2
	22 May 2024 00:00	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 18:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 04:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Matsangoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Rasini	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Kisima Chande	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Gazi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Ukunda	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Tiwi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:30	Miperani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:30	Konde	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:30	Kiuyu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Mtwapa	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Kijipwa	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Kijangwani	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Pate	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Siyu	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:00	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	24 May 2024 15:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 21:45	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 21:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 01:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Waa	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Mkunguni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Mwandoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Mombasa	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:45	Mto Panga	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 22:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 00:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 07:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	22 May 2024 07:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.