Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Seychelles, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (16 May 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	90 km/h	0.3 m	473 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

Up to 30 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Seychelles, Madagascar	29,340	+
	Seychelles	21
	Madagascar	29,318

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 May 2024 18:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	16,973	+
	Seychelles	21
	Madagascar	16,951
50-100 mm	Madagascar	186,743

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 May 2024 18:00	1621	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 16 May 2024 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:30	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:30	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:30	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:30	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.3
	16 May 2024 21:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 19:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	16 May 2024 22:15	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:30	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:30	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Somanga	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:15	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 23:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 20:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kilale	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 22:15	Tanga	Tanzania	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ampondrahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 19:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:15	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:00	Rasini	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 21:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 21:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 20:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:45	Ambolobozokely	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 23:00	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:45	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Lotsohina	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 19:00	Ambatonjanahary	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:15	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 22:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Ampasimaleotra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 18:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.