Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	101 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (22 May 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	101 km/h	0.2 m	485 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania	183

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	294	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	201	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	19 May 2024 12:00	323	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	19 May 2024 18:00	295	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	20 May 2024 00:00	399	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	20 May 2024 06:00	470	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	20 May 2024 12:00	383	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	20 May 2024 18:00	448	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	21 May 2024 00:00	625	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 May 2024 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 May 2024 21:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 21:45	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 21:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 21:45	Ampandrabe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 21:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 08:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	21 May 2024 08:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:45	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	23 May 2024 10:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 11:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 17:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 09:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:45	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:15	Kilifi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:15	Takaungu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:15	Matsangoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Rasini	Kenya	0.1
	23 May 2024 10:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.