Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	122 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 May 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	122 km/h	0.2 m	201 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1064 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	294	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	291	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	19 May 2024 06:00	831	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mkadini, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 19 May 2024 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 May 2024 11:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:45	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:45	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 08:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:15	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:15	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 11:15	Fumba	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 06:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:15	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:45	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:45	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:30	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:30	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 07:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 07:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Kililana	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:30	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 09:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 09:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 07:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:15	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:00	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:00	Hidio	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:00	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Waa	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Mkunguni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Mwandoni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Mombasa	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Mto Panga	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Mtwapa	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.