Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

21 May 2024 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 May 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	94 km/h	0.2 m	396 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 May 2024 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 May 2024 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 May 2024 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	20 May 2024 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	21 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	21 May 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Madagascar	506,239	+
	Tanzania	502,705
	Other countries	02
	Madagascar	3,531

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	275	60 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
6	18 May 2024 12:00	447	150 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
7	19 May 2024 00:00	482	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	418	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 May 2024 00:00	267	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	20 May 2024 12:00	550	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	21 May 2024 00:00	588	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	21 May 2024 12:00	448	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Other countries, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 May 2024 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 16:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 15:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:15	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Waa	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mkunguni	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mwandoni	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mombasa	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mto Panga	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mtwapa	Kenya	0.2
	23 May 2024 13:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kawi	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kipara	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Msasani	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kutani	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 22:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 19:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 15:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 15:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 15:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 15:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 16:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Ukunda	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Tiwi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:45	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:45	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Kisima Chande	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Gazi	Kenya	0.1
	23 May 2024 12:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:45	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	22 May 2024 14:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 14:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Kitambula	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:30	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	23 May 2024 13:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 May 2024 13:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	23 May 2024 12:45	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Chokaningayo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Kiuyu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:45	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:15	Kilifi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:15	Takaungu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 18:15	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 15:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 12:45	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Kijipwa	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:15	Kijangwani	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Matsangoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Mida	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 13:00	Watamu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 13:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	22 May 2024 13:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	23 May 2024 13:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 14:15	Kililana	Kenya	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.