Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	115 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (19 May 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	115 km/h	0.3 m	291 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Seychelles	01

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	294	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	19 May 2024 00:00	1064	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 May 2024 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 May 2024 01:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	19 May 2024 01:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 02:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	19 May 2024 02:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	19 May 2024 02:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 04:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 04:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 04:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 05:15	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 01:45	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	19 May 2024 00:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:15	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:30	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:30	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Napito	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:15	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:45	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:45	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:30	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:15	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:30	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:30	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:45	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:45	Metapa	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:30	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:00	Dzamandzar	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 01:45	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
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