Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (18 May 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	119 km/h	0.4 m	294 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.4 m	1064 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	17 May 2024 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1064 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Seychelles	02

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	473	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	420	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 May 2024 12:00	211	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 May 2024 18:00	1385	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 18:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	18 May 2024 18:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	18 May 2024 18:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	18 May 2024 18:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	18 May 2024 21:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 18:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	18 May 2024 21:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 21:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 21:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 20:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 20:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 20:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 18:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 21:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 21:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 21:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 19:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 23:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:00	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:45	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:30	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:00	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:00	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 23:00	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 20:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Chululu	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 18:45	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 19:45	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:45	Kitunda	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:45	Kiuleula	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 22:45	Kiswa	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 00:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.