Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (14 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 102 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 157 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 820000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.6, -54.7
GREEN
18 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 650000 people 14.7, -57.4 Dominica
GREEN
18 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 850000 people 14.9, -60.4 Saint Lucia
GREEN
18 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.1, -63.7
GREEN
18 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.2, -69.7
GREEN
18 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15, -74.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Martinique
St. Lucia
Dominica
Guadeloupe

Provinces

Region Province Country
Martinique Martinique
St. Lucia Saint Lucia
Dominica Dominica
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 13000 people
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 89000 people
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 17000 people
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City -
Capesterre Guadeloupe City -
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
Hewanorra International UVF 3 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Le Marin Martinique
Le Robert Martinique
La Trinite Martinique
Vieux Fort Saint Lucia
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique
Saint Pierre Martinique
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe
Saint Louis Guadeloupe
Roseau DMRSU Dominica
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Cujizal, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (19 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 12 Sep 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cujizal Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Palencia Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 20:00 Caduto Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Hyacinthe Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Roseau Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 19:00 Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Lero Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Sainte Pierre Martinique  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Jagueicito Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Puerto Zazarida Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Ocorote Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Rio Seco Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Algodones Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cauca Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cuajaracume Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 12:00 Junain Colombia  0.1