Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ISAAC-18 in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados from 07 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC to 12 Sep 2018 03:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (14 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 820000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	139	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	157	No people	No people
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	148	No people	No people
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	148	520 thousand	No people	Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	139	600 thousand	120 thousand	Martinique
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	157	740 thousand	200 thousand	Martinique
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	157	660 thousand	40 thousand	Martinique, Dominica
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	157	650 thousand	390 thousand	Martinique
9	09 Sep 2018 21:00	157	980 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
10	10 Sep 2018 03:00	157	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
11	10 Sep 2018 09:00	148	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
12	10 Sep 2018 15:00	139	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
13	10 Sep 2018 21:00	139	930 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
14	11 Sep 2018 03:00	120	980 thousand	60 thousand	Dominica
15	11 Sep 2018 09:00	120	920 thousand	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
16	11 Sep 2018 15:00	120	1 million	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
17	11 Sep 2018 21:00	111	1 million	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
18	12 Sep 2018 03:00	102	820 thousand	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -34.9
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.9, -34.9
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -35.4
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.6, -36
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -36.6
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.4, -37.5
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.5, -38.1
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.3, -39.1
9	09 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.5, -40.3
10	10 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, -41.6
11	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.7, -42.7
12	10 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.7, -43.9
13	10 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.4, -45
14	11 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.5, -46.9
15	11 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -48.1
16	11 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -49.7
17	11 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -51.3
18	12 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.5, -52.3
18	12 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.6, -54.7
18	13 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	650000 people	14.7, -57.4	Dominica
18	13 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	850000 people	14.9, -60.4	Saint Lucia
18	14 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.1, -63.7
18	15 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.2, -69.7
18	16 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15, -74.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Martinique
St. Lucia
Dominica
Guadeloupe

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Martinique	Martinique
St. Lucia	Saint Lucia
Dominica	Dominica
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Castries	Castries	St. Lucia	Capital	13000 people
Fort-de-France		Martinique	Capital	89000 people
Roseau	Saint George	Dominica	Capital	17000 people
Pointe-à-Pitre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Capesterre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Saint-Claude		Guadeloupe	City	10000 people
Basse-Terre		Guadeloupe	Capital	11000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Le Lamentin	FDF	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10800
Hewanorra International	UVF	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Vigie	SLU	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6200
Melville Hall	DOM	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Marie Galante	GBJ	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
Dominica Cane	DCF	unknown				0
Canefield		4	Civ.	Paved	No	2500
Terre de Haut	LSS	unknown				0
Terre-de-Bas	HTB	unknown				0
Basse-Terre Baillif	BBR	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Le Marin		Martinique
Le Robert		Martinique
La Trinite		Martinique
Vieux Fort		Saint Lucia
Castries	LCSLU	Saint Lucia
Cul de Sac Bay	LCCDS	Saint Lucia
Fort de France	MQFDF	Martinique
Saint Pierre		Martinique
Grand Bourg		Guadeloupe
Saint Louis		Guadeloupe
Roseau	DMRSU	Dominica
Portsmouth	DMPOR	Dominica
Bourg Des Saintes		Guadeloupe
Basse Terre	GPBBR	Guadeloupe

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Saint Pierre la Manzo	Manche	1978

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Cujizal, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (19 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 12 Sep 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Cujizal	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Palencia	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 20:00	Caduto	Venezuela	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Hyacinthe	Martinique	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Basse-Pointe	Martinique	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Roseau	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Scotts Head	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Dubuc	Dominica	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 19:00	Guasare Abajo	Venezuela	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Lero	Martinique	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Sainte Pierre	Martinique	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Jagueicito	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Puerto Zazarida	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Ocorote	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Rio Seco	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Algodones	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Cauca	Venezuela	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Cuajaracume	Venezuela	0.1
	15 Sep 2018 12:00	Junain	Colombia	0.1