Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for BELAL-24 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar from 12 Jan 2024 16:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2024 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BELAL-24

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar

19 Jan 2024 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELAL-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population	960 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (15 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	12 Jan 2024 12:00	204	2.2 million	40 thousand	Mauritius
2	13 Jan 2024 00:00	194	2.2 million	60 thousand	Mauritius
3	13 Jan 2024 12:00	194	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	14 Jan 2024 00:00	194	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
5	14 Jan 2024 12:00	176	2 million	460 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
6	15 Jan 2024 00:00	167	2.1 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	15 Jan 2024 12:00	139	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	16 Jan 2024 00:00	120	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
9	16 Jan 2024 12:00	93	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
10	17 Jan 2024 00:00	102	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
11	17 Jan 2024 12:00	93	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
12	18 Jan 2024 00:00	83	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
13	18 Jan 2024 12:00	83	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
14	19 Jan 2024 00:00	65	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	12 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-13.3, 56.6
2	13 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.5, 55.8
3	13 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-16.6, 54.3
4	14 Jan 2024 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-18.1, 53.5
5	14 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	920000 people	-19.8, 53.3
6	15 Jan 2024 00:00	Category 2	167	960000 people	960000 people	-20.5, 54.5
7	15 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 1	139	110000 people	2.2 million people	-21.3, 56.1
8	16 Jan 2024 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	2 million people	-22.1, 57.8
9	16 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-23.1, 59.8
10	17 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-24.2, 62.6
11	17 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-24.2, 63.6
12	18 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-24, 64.9
13	18 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-23.9, 65.6
14	19 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-23.3, 64.6
14	19 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.5, 63.6
14	20 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-24, 62.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mauritius	1.2 million people
Reunion	880000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mauritius	Mauritius	1.2 million people
Reunion	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands	880000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Port Louis		Mauritius	Capital	150000 people
Saint-Denis		Reunion	Capital	140000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Plaisance International	MRU	57	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9900
St Pierre Pierrefonds	ZSE	16				0
Saint Denis Gillot	RUN	20				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahebourg		Mauritius
Port Louis	MUPLU	Mauritius
Saint Pierre		Reunion
Saint Denis		Reunion
Pointe Des Galets	REPDG	Reunion

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Le Port, Reunion. This height is estimated for 15 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (39 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 19 Jan 2024 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Jan 2024 06:00	Le Port	Reunion	0.4
	15 Jan 2024 06:00	La Possession	Reunion	0.4
	15 Jan 2024 08:00	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 06:00	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 08:00	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 07:00	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 09:00	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 09:00	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 09:00	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 07:00	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 09:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 12:00	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 07:00	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 07:00	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 07:00	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 09:00	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 00:00	Souillac	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 02:00	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Choisy	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Black River	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.