Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for NORMA-23 in Mexico from 17 Oct 2023 21:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2023 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NORMA-23

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORMA-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000206-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	430 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (21 Oct 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 23 Oct 2023 09:00 - 23 Oct 2023 15:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Oct 2023 21:00	176	790 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	18 Oct 2023 03:00	176	790 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	18 Oct 2023 09:00	185	790 thousand	Few people	Mexico
4	18 Oct 2023 15:00	185	450 thousand	No people	Mexico
5	18 Oct 2023 21:00	130	790 thousand	400 thousand	Mexico
6	19 Oct 2023 03:00	130	990 thousand	420 thousand	Mexico
7	19 Oct 2023 09:00	130	1 million	390 thousand	Mexico
8	19 Oct 2023 15:00	213	2 million	Few people	Mexico
9	19 Oct 2023 21:00	130	1.8 million	180 thousand	Mexico
10	20 Oct 2023 03:00	194	2 million	9 thousand	Mexico
11	20 Oct 2023 09:00	185	2 million	No people	Mexico
12	20 Oct 2023 15:00	139	2.1 million	190 thousand	Mexico
13	20 Oct 2023 21:00	185	1.9 million	410 thousand	Mexico
14	21 Oct 2023 03:00	185	2 million	420 thousand	Mexico
15	21 Oct 2023 09:00	185	2.2 million	420 thousand	Mexico
16	21 Oct 2023 15:00	157	2.3 million	260 thousand	Mexico
17	21 Oct 2023 21:00	130	2 million	450 thousand	Mexico
18	22 Oct 2023 03:00	102	1.9 million	430 thousand	Mexico
19	22 Oct 2023 09:00	93	2.2 million	430 thousand	Mexico
20	22 Oct 2023 15:00	93	2.2 million	430 thousand	Mexico
21	22 Oct 2023 21:00	102	3.6 million	430 thousand	Mexico
22	23 Oct 2023 03:00	93	3.7 million	430 thousand	Mexico
23	23 Oct 2023 09:00	56	3.7 million	430 thousand	Mexico
24	23 Oct 2023 15:00	56	3.7 million	430 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.2, -107.3
2	18 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.7, -107.8
3	18 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.2, -107.9
4	18 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.8, -107.9
5	18 Oct 2023 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.6, -108
6	19 Oct 2023 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	16.4, -108
7	19 Oct 2023 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	16.7, -107.7
8	19 Oct 2023 15:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.4, -107.6
9	19 Oct 2023 21:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	17.5, -108
10	20 Oct 2023 03:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	18.2, -108.1
11	20 Oct 2023 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	18.8, -108.6
12	20 Oct 2023 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	120000 people	19.4, -109.2
13	20 Oct 2023 21:00	Category 3	194	no people	410000 people	20.1, -109.8
14	21 Oct 2023 03:00	Category 3	194	no people	470000 people	20.8, -109.9
15	21 Oct 2023 09:00	Category 3	185	240000 people	790000 people	21.7, -110.1
16	21 Oct 2023 15:00	Category 2	157	240000 people	790000 people	22.7, -110.3
17	21 Oct 2023 21:00	Category 1	130	450000 people	790000 people	23.1, -110	Mexico
18	22 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	880000 people	23.5, -109.7	Mexico
19	22 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.2 million people	24.5, -109.8	Mexico
20	22 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.8 million people	24.7, -109.6
21	22 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	3.6 million people	24.9, -109.4
22	23 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	3.3 million people	25, -109
23	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24.5, -108.4
24	23 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24.9, -107.7	Mexico
24	24 Oct 2023 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	25.4, -107.3	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mexico	3.6 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Sinaloa	Mexico	2.3 million people
Durango	Mexico	26000 people
Chihuahua	Mexico	52000 people
Sonora	Mexico	350000 people
Baja California Sur	Mexico	820000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Culiacán	Sinaloa	Mexico	Major city	540000 people
El Dorado	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	-
Guamúchil	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	57000 people
Guasave	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	68000 people
Los Mochis	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	210000 people
Ahome	Sonora	Mexico	City	11000 people
El Fuerte	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	11000 people
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people
Huatabampo	Sonora	Mexico	City	30000 people
Navojoa	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Fedl de Bachigualato	CUL	33	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Campo Gobierno		13				0
Guamuchil		24				0
Bacubirito		300				0
Cosala		76				0
Campo Cuatro Milpas		28				0
Los Cerritos Northeast		17				0
Los Mochis	LMM	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
El Fuerte		75				0
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Punta Pescadero		7				0
Alamos	XAL	400				0
La Paz		26				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Navojoa New		38				0
Navojoa		60				0
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Villa Juarez South		46				0
Loreto	LTO	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Arroyo Capo		20				0
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0
Isla Socorro		100				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Altata		Mexico
Topolobampo	MXTPB	Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
Yavaros		Mexico
La Paz		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
Bahia Salinas		Mexico
Loreto		Mexico
Socorro Island		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Presidente Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Humaya	1964
	Sinaloa	Tamazula	1948
Presa Juan Guerrero	Juan Guerrero	El Bledal	1994
	Eustaquio	Mocorito	1972
	Presidente Jose L. Portillo	San Lorenzo	1981
	Presidente Gustavo Diaz Ordaz	Sinaloa	1982
	Presa Josefa Ortiz de Dominguez	Alamos	1967
Miguel Hidalgo	Miguel Hidalgo	El Fuerte	1956
	Huites	Fuerte	1995

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in San Lucas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Oct 2023 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (44 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 21 Oct 2023 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Oct 2023 19:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.5
	21 Oct 2023 19:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.5
	21 Oct 2023 20:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.4
	22 Oct 2023 10:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.4
	22 Oct 2023 10:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.4
	22 Oct 2023 10:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.4
	22 Oct 2023 10:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.4
	23 Oct 2023 08:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.4
	23 Oct 2023 10:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.4
	23 Oct 2023 10:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.4
	23 Oct 2023 08:00	Altata	Mexico	0.3
	21 Oct 2023 21:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.3
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.3
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.3
	21 Oct 2023 21:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.3
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	22 Oct 2023 10:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 18:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	22 Oct 2023 10:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Oct 2023 23:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	22 Oct 2023 09:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	23 Oct 2023 17:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 17:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 17:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	21 Oct 2023 23:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 00:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 07:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 07:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 07:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 08:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 08:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 07:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	22 Oct 2023 07:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 02:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 02:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.