Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MAX-23 in Mexico from 08 Oct 2023 03:00 UTC to 10 Oct 2023 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MAX-23

in Mexico

10 Oct 2023 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAX-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	93 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (09 Oct 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 09 Oct 2023 15:00 - 09 Oct 2023 21:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	93 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 630000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	08 Oct 2023 03:00	83	490 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	08 Oct 2023 09:00	83	930 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	08 Oct 2023 15:00	83	260 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	08 Oct 2023 21:00	83	220 thousand	No people	Mexico
5	09 Oct 2023 03:00	83	420 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	09 Oct 2023 09:00	93	580 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	09 Oct 2023 15:00	93	650 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	09 Oct 2023 21:00	93	740 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	10 Oct 2023 03:00	56	630 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	10 Oct 2023 09:00	37	630 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	08 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	13.9, -100.1
2	08 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	14.5, -100.7
3	08 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15, -101.1
4	08 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.9, -101.7
5	09 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	130000 people	16.3, -101.9
6	09 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	320000 people	16.8, -101.5
7	09 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	650000 people	17.1, -101.2
8	09 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	740000 people	17.6, -101	Mexico
9	10 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.1, -100.9	Mexico
10	10 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	19.5, -100.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mexico	620000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Michoacan	Mexico	25000 people
Guerrero	Mexico	600000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Coyuca de Catalán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	-
Petatlán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Tecpan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	14000 people
Atoyac	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Huetamo		300				0
Santa Barbara		299				0
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International	ZIH	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Andres Figueroa	Ajuchitlan	1983

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Calvario, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Oct 2023 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 09 Oct 2023 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Oct 2023 16:00	Calvario	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2023 16:00	Coyuquillas	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2023 16:00	Nuxco	Mexico	0.2
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	Lagarto	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	Santa Maria Xandani	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	Costa Rica	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	Union Hidalgo	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	Chicapa	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	San Dionisio del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	09 Oct 2023 05:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.