Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for KENNETH-19
in Mozambique, Comoros

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KENNETH-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Comoros
Exposed population 360 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (25 Apr 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Comoros)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 139 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 231 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

139 km/h Current

Up to 360000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 23 Apr 2019 00:00 130 2.5 million 420 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Orange 2 23 Apr 2019 06:00 167 3.8 million 310 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Orange 3 23 Apr 2019 12:00 148 2.4 million 260 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Red 4 23 Apr 2019 18:00 194 1.6 million 130 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Orange 5 24 Apr 2019 00:00 167 2.7 million 280 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Orange 6 24 Apr 2019 06:00 194 2.6 million 280 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Orange 7 24 Apr 2019 12:00 148 3 million 400 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Red 8 24 Apr 2019 18:00 204 3 million 460 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Orange 9 25 Apr 2019 00:00 204 1.6 million 320 thousand Comoros, Mozambique
Red 10 25 Apr 2019 06:00 204 3.3 million 460 thousand Mozambique, Comoros
Red 11 25 Apr 2019 12:00 222 4.7 million 490 thousand Mozambique, Comoros
Green 12 25 Apr 2019 18:00 139 4.7 million 360 thousand Mozambique, Comoros

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 23 Apr 2019 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -10, 50.7
GREEN
2 23 Apr 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 <1000 people no people -10.3, 49.9 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
3 23 Apr 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 5700 people no people -10.6, 48.8 Madagascar
GREEN
4 23 Apr 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 111 190000 people no people -10.7, 47.8 Comoros
GREEN
5 24 Apr 2019 00:00 Category 1 120 970000 people no people -10.7, 46.6 Comoros
ORANGE
6 24 Apr 2019 06:00 Category 1 130 840000 people 92000 people -10.9, 45.7 Comoros
ORANGE
7 24 Apr 2019 12:00 Category 1 139 1.1 million people 280000 people -11.1, 44.4 Comoros
RED
8 24 Apr 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 2.2 million people 260000 people -11.2, 43.3 Comoros
GREEN
9 25 Apr 2019 00:00 Category 4 213 960000 people no people -11.3, 42.7 Mozambique
ORANGE
10 25 Apr 2019 06:00 Category 4 231 2.4 million people 42000 people -11.6, 41.8 Mozambique
RED
11 25 Apr 2019 12:00 Category 4 222 3.6 million people 220000 people -12.1, 40.8 Mozambique
GREEN
12 25 Apr 2019 18:00 Category 1 139 3.1 million people 71000 people -12.3, 40.1 Mozambique
GREEN
12 26 Apr 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 102 1.7 million people no people -12.5, 39.2 Mozambique
GREEN
12 26 Apr 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 550000 people no people -12.8, 38.7 Mozambique
GREEN
12 27 Apr 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people -13, 38.5 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Comoros

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Cabo Delgado Mozambique 1.2 million people
Comoros Comoros -

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Moroni Comoros Capital 42000 people 349 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Ibo IBO unknown 0 53 km
Moroni Hahaia HAH 27 Civ. Paved Yes 9500 356 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Ibo MZIBO Mozambique 53 km
Moroni KMYVA Comoros 349 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Chipembe Montepuez 1985 37 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Ibo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 25 Apr 2019 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (72 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 25 Apr 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Apr 2019 16:00 Ibo Mozambique  1.0
25 Apr 2019 15:00 Tavari Mozambique  0.7
25 Apr 2019 13:00 Mucojo Mozambique  0.6
25 Apr 2019 13:00 Ingoane Mozambique  0.6
25 Apr 2019 13:00 Mipande Mozambique  0.6
25 Apr 2019 13:00 Foque Mozambique  0.6
25 Apr 2019 12:00 Pangome Mozambique  0.5
25 Apr 2019 12:00 Abdala Mozambique  0.5
25 Apr 2019 12:00 Maate Mozambique  0.5
25 Apr 2019 12:00 Quissanga Mozambique  0.5
25 Apr 2019 13:00 Pangane Mozambique  0.5
25 Apr 2019 16:00 Arimba Mozambique  0.4
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Chezani Comoros  0.3
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Ifoundihe Comoros  0.2
25 Apr 2019 12:00 Lucete Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 20:00 Metuge Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 15:00 Mussange Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
25 Apr 2019 13:00 Luguni Mozambique  0.2
24 Apr 2019 19:00 Domoni Comoros  0.2
25 Apr 2019 19:00 Quiterajo Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
25 Apr 2019 07:00 Palma Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 07:00 Bawala Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 07:00 Olumbe Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 07:00 Boala Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 07:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 07:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 15:00 Acache Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 16:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
25 Apr 2019 10:00 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 10:00 Libambai Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 10:00 Meronvi Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 10:00 Quissengue Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 10:00 Marere Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 18:00 Macalopa Mozambique  0.2
25 Apr 2019 16:00 Msimbati Tanzania  0.2
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
25 Apr 2019 20:00 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
25 Apr 2019 17:00 Ombauine Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Combani Comoros  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
24 Apr 2019 19:00 Vanamboini Comoros  0.1
25 Apr 2019 17:00 Mauala Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
24 Apr 2019 18:00 Mitsamiouli Comoros  0.1
25 Apr 2019 18:00 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
25 Apr 2019 17:00 Tari Mozambique  0.1
25 Apr 2019 15:00 Morumequina Mozambique  0.1
25 Apr 2019 18:00 Lurio Mozambique  0.1
25 Apr 2019 18:00 Miquindane Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
24 Apr 2019 17:00 M'Djoyezi Comoros  0.1
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Dembeni Comoros  0.1
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Mohoro Comoros  0.1
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Dzahadjou Comoros  0.1
24 Apr 2019 17:00 Chendini Comoros  0.1
25 Apr 2019 17:00 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
25 Apr 2019 18:00 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
23 Apr 2019 08:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
25 Apr 2019 17:00 Mecufi Mozambique  0.1