Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ISAAC-18 in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados from 07 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18

in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (13 Sep 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 73000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	139	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	157	No people	No people
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	148	No people	No people
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	148	520 thousand	No people	Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	139	600 thousand	120 thousand	Martinique
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	157	740 thousand	200 thousand	Martinique
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	157	660 thousand	40 thousand	Martinique, Dominica
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	157	650 thousand	390 thousand	Martinique
9	09 Sep 2018 21:00	157	980 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
10	10 Sep 2018 03:00	157	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
11	10 Sep 2018 09:00	148	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
12	10 Sep 2018 15:00	139	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
13	10 Sep 2018 21:00	139	930 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -34.9
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.9, -34.9
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -35.4
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.6, -36
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -36.6
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.4, -37.5
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.5, -38.1
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.3, -39.1
9	09 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.5, -40.3
10	10 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, -41.6
11	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.7, -42.7
12	10 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.7, -43.9
13	10 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.4, -45
13	11 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	14.5, -47.1
13	11 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.6, -49.8
13	12 Sep 2018 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.6, -52.3
13	12 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	490000 people	14.8, -54.7	Dominica
13	13 Sep 2018 18:00	Category 1	130	73000 people	930000 people	15.3, -60.2	Dominica
13	14 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15.5, -65.5
13	15 Sep 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.5, -70.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Dominica

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Dominica	Dominica

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Roseau	Saint George	Dominica	Capital	17000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Melville Hall	DOM	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Dominica Cane	DCF	unknown				0
Canefield		4	Civ.	Paved	No	2500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Roseau	DMRSU	Dominica
Portsmouth	DMPOR	Dominica

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in La Plaine, Dominica. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (23 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 10 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Sep 2018 23:00	La Plaine	Dominica	0.3
	13 Sep 2018 23:00	Castle Bruce	Dominica	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 23:00	Dubuc	Dominica	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 00:00	Roseau	Dominica	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 00:00	Baroui	Dominica	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 23:00	Marigot	Dominica	0.2
	14 Sep 2018 01:00	Portsmouth	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 23:00	Scotts Head	Dominica	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Basse-Terre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Saint-Claude	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 04:00	Bouillante	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 22:00	Basse-Pointe	Martinique	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 22:00	Grand-Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 22:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 01:00	Sainte-Anne	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Baie-Mahault	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 02:00	Pointe-a-Pitre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 01:00	Le Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 19:00	Punta Santiago	Puerto Rico	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 19:00	Playa de Humacao	Puerto Rico	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 19:00	Buena Vista	Puerto Rico	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 19:00	Palmas del Mar	Puerto Rico	0.1
	14 Sep 2018 19:00	Bajandas	Puerto Rico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.