Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for HILARY-23 in Mexico from 16 Aug 2023 15:00 UTC to 18 Aug 2023 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HILARY-23

in Mexico

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HILARY-23 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000150-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (21 Aug 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 21 Aug 2023 00:00 - 21 Aug 2023 12:00 in United States

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	157 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

157 km/h Current Max.

Up to 9.5 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Aug 2023 15:00	148	7.1 million	140 thousand	Mexico
2	16 Aug 2023 21:00	130	27.3 million	14.2 million	Mexico, United States
3	17 Aug 2023 03:00	194	25.9 million	6 thousand	Mexico
4	17 Aug 2023 09:00	176	28.8 million	130 thousand	Mexico
5	17 Aug 2023 15:00	157	33.4 million	3.9 million	Mexico, United States
6	17 Aug 2023 21:00	157	28.8 million	13.4 million	Mexico, United States
7	18 Aug 2023 03:00	130	32.6 million	120 thousand	Mexico
8	18 Aug 2023 09:00	120	32.8 million	4.3 million	Mexico, United States
9	18 Aug 2023 15:00	157	31.8 million	9.5 million	Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Aug 2023 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.4, -102.6
2	16 Aug 2023 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.7, -103.7
3	17 Aug 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.4, -105.1
4	17 Aug 2023 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -106.3
5	17 Aug 2023 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	15.5, -107.8
6	17 Aug 2023 21:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	16.1, -108.9
7	18 Aug 2023 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	16.7, -110
8	18 Aug 2023 09:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	17.2, -110.8
9	18 Aug 2023 15:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	17.9, -111.4
9	19 Aug 2023 00:00	Category 4	241	no people	230000 people	19.2, -112.5
9	19 Aug 2023 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	630000 people	21.3, -113.6
9	20 Aug 2023 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	480000 people	23.7, -114.4
9	20 Aug 2023 12:00	Category 2	157	90000 people	8.5 million people	26.8, -115.2
9	21 Aug 2023 00:00	Category 1	120	9.5 million people	31.1 million people	30.4, -116.4
9	21 Aug 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	35.2, -117.4	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Mexico	2.5 million people
United States	6.9 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Baja California Sur	Mexico	1700 people
Baja California	Mexico	2.5 million people
California	United States	6.9 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Isla Natividad	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Ensenada	Baja California	Mexico	City	250000 people
Tijuana	Baja California	Mexico	City	1.4 million people
Chula Vista	California	United States	City	170000 people
National City	California	United States	City	54000 people
Spring Valley	California	United States	City	27000 people
San Diego	California	United States	Major city	1.2 million people
La Mesa	California	United States	City	55000 people
El Cajon	California	United States	City	95000 people
Santee	California	United States	City	53000 people
Escondido	California	United States	City	130000 people
Vista	California	United States	City	90000 people
Oceanside	California	United States	City	160000 people
Moreno Valley	California	United States	City	140000 people
Corona	California	United States	City	120000 people
Riverside	California	United States	City	260000 people
San Bernardino	California	United States	City	190000 people
Fontana	California	United States	City	130000 people
Rialto	California	United States	City	92000 people
Ontario	California	United States	City	160000 people
Rancho Cucamonga	California	United States	City	130000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Bahia Tortugas		40				0
Isla Cedros		30				0
San Quintin	SNQ	unknown				0
Ensenada	ESE	15	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Reider Ranch		809				0
Gen A L Rodriguez International	TIJ	152	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9700
Brown Field Municipal	SDM	160	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7900
John Nichol's Field		149				0
Imperial Beach Olf Ream Field	NRS	7	Mil.	Paved	No	5000
Parking Lot		unknown				0
Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center		136				0
On The Rocks		808				0
Paradise Valley Hospital		35				0
Turner Field/amphibious Base		unknown				0
KGTV-10 Parking Lot		61				0
North Island NAS Halsey Field	NZY	8	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8000
U S Naval Hospital San Diego		61				0
Grossmont Hospital		193				0
Scripps Hospital East County		180				0
San Diego International Lindbergh Fl	SAN	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9400
Mercy Hospital & Medical Center		101				0
Gillespie Field	SEE	117	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Montgomery Field	MYF	129	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4600
Miramar NAS	NKX	146	Mil.	Paved	Yes	12000
Torrey Pines Corporate Helistop		131				0
Flying T Ranch		762				0
Ramona		425	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
Pomerado Hospital		198				0
Hoffman (Private)		945				0
Loma Madera Ranch		1029				0
Pat Coyle Memorial		183				0
Lake Wohlford Resort		501				0
Warner Springs Gliderport		879				0
McClellan Palomar	CLD	100	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Hoag		503				0
Tri-city Hospital		79				0
Blackinton		352				0
Lyall-Roberts		282				0
Oceanside Municipal	OCN	9				0
Ward Ranch		762				0
Camp Pendleton Mcas		24	Mil.	Paved	Yes	6000
Fallbrook Community Airpark		216				0
Lake Riverside Estates		1039				0
Billy Joe		411				0
Clark Ranch Airpark		677				0
Rancho California		309				0
Ernst Field		872				0
Wolfranch		610				0
French Valley	RBK	411				0
Inland Valley Reg Medical Center		404				0
Pines Airpark		433				0
Skylark Field		382				0
Hemet Valley Hospital Helistop		381				0
Hemet Ryan	HMT	461	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4300
Mc Conville Airstrip		792				0
Sce San Jacinto Valley Service Center		452				0
Perris Valley		431				0
Banning Municipal	BNG	676	Civ.	Paved	No	5200
Sce Palm Springs District		91				0
March AFB	RIV	469	Mil.	Paved	Yes	13300
University Medical Center		476				0
Lake Mathews		422				0
Corona Regional Medical Center		212				0
Corona Municipal		162	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3200
Riverside Municipal	RAL	249	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5400
Riverside Metro Center		290				0
Johnson		276				0
Flabob	RIR	233	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Loma Linda University Medical Center		373				0
Redlands Municipal		479				0
Norton AFB	SBD	353	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Arrowhead Regional Medical Center		328				0
Kaiser Hospital		370				0
San Bernardino County Medical Center		343				0
Sce Eastern Division		367				0
San Bernardino Community Hospital		369				0
Big Bear City	RBF	2057				0
Fontana Police		401				0
Ontario International	ONT	287	Civ.	Paved	Yes	12200
Rialto Municipal Miro Field		438				0
M H 15 Heaps Peak Usfs		1910				0
Mountains Community Hospital		1524				0
Rabbit Ranch		897				0
Hesperia		1033				0
Lugo Substation		1138				0
Sce High Desert District		906				0
Holiday Ranch		994				0
St Mary Desert Valley Hospital		866				0
Apple Valley	APV	932	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Osborne Private		884				0
Ipp Adelanto		908				0
George AFB	VCV	876	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10000
Krey Field		927				0
Gray Butte Fld		917				0
El Mirage Field Adelanto		873				0
Palisades Ranch		765				0
Hansen		879				0
Depue		705				0
Sun Hill Ranch		910				0
Barstow Community Hospital		687				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Roca Partido Island		Mexico
Puerto San Bartolome		Mexico
Morro Redondo	MXMRE	Mexico
San Quintin		Mexico
Ensenada	MXESE	Mexico
Rosarito Terminal	MXRST	Mexico
Tijuana	MXTIJ	Mexico
San Diego	USSAN	Wake Island
Oceanside	USXJX	Wake Island

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Carrizo	Carrizo	1981
	Abelardo	Tijuana	1937
	Morena	Cottonwood Creek	1912
	Barrett	Cottonwood Creek	1922
Lower Otay Reservoir	Savage	Otay River	1919
	Sweetwater Main	Sweetwater River	1888
	Lake Loveland	Sweetwater River	1945
	El Capitan	San Diego River	1934
Lake Jennings	Chet Harritt	Quail Can Creek	1962
	Cuyamaca	Boulder Creek	1887
	San Vicente	San Vicente Creek	1943
	Ramona	Green Val Road Creek	1988
	Sutherland	Santa Ysabel Creek	1954
	Lake Hodges	San Dieguito River	1918
Lake Henshaw	Henshaw	San Luis Rey River	1923
	Vail	Temecula Creek	1949
	Lake Hemet	Trib. San Jacinto River	1895
	Robert A. Skinner	Tucalota Creek	1973
	Diamond Valley Lake	Domenigoni Valley Creek	2000
	Railroad Canyon	San Jacinto River	1928
	Perris	Bernasconi Pass	1973
	Mathews	Trib. Cajalco Creek	1938
Big Bear Lake	Bear Valley	Bear Creek	1911
	Lake Arrowhead	Little Bear Creek	1922

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Aug 2023 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (114 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 18 Aug 2023 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.6
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	La Playa	Mexico	0.5
	20 Aug 2023 23:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.5
	21 Aug 2023 02:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.5
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Ensenada	Mexico	0.4
	21 Aug 2023 03:00	Rancho Boca de San Jose	Mexico	0.4
	21 Aug 2023 05:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.4
	21 Aug 2023 03:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.4
	21 Aug 2023 00:00	Santa Marie	Mexico	0.4
	21 Aug 2023 02:00	Rancho Cepeda	Mexico	0.4
	21 Aug 2023 01:00	Rancho San Francisco	Mexico	0.4
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.3
	21 Aug 2023 01:00	Colonia Camalu	Mexico	0.3
	20 Aug 2023 20:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.3
	20 Aug 2023 11:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.3
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.3
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Encino Solo	Mexico	0.3
	21 Aug 2023 02:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	21 Aug 2023 05:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.3
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.3
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	El Sauzal	Mexico	0.3
	20 Aug 2023 19:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.3
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.3
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Coronado	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Imperial Beach	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Boal	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	San Diego	United States	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 22:00	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 03:00	Cabo Punta Banda	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 16:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 12:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	La Mision	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 06:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 04:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 01:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 18:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 15:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 03:00	Erendria	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 15:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 18:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 18:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 05:00	El Descanso	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 16:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 23:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 17:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 05:00	Rosarito	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 13:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 07:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 09:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 05:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 15:00	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Fort Rosecrans	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Roseville	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Loma Portal	United States	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 16:00	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 18:00	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 18:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 23:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Carlsbad	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Ponto	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Leucadia	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Encinitas	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Cardiff-by-the-Sea	United States	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Green Valley Mobile Estates	United States	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 18:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	20 Aug 2023 22:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	La Jolla	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	The Muirlands	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Solana Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Del Mar	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Azure Vista	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Ocean Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Mission Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Easter Cross	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 06:00	Campland on the Bay Trailer Park	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Sorrento	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Escondido Junction	United States	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 05:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Stuart	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Fallbrook Junction	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Camp Pendleton South	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Oceanside	United States	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 05:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 05:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 07:00	Las Flores	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Agra	United States	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 03:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 15:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Capistrano Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	San Clemente	United States	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 19:00	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 04:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Corona del Mar	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Crystal Cove	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Emerald Bay	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Laguna Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Canyon Acres	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	Top of the World	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	South Laguna	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Newport Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Cliff Haven	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Bay Shores	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Balboa	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 08:00	San Joaquin Hills	United States	0.1
	20 Aug 2023 21:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Huntington Beach	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Surfside	United States	0.1
	21 Aug 2023 10:00	Sunset Beach	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.