Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for BELAL-24 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar from 12 Jan 2024 16:00 UTC to 13 Jan 2024 10:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BELAL-24

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELAL-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
Exposed population	960 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (15 Jan 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Reunion)
Landfall	between 14 Jan 2024 22:00 - 15 Jan 2024 10:00 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	232 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	158 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

232 km/h Current Max.

Up to 960000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	12 Jan 2024 16:00	201	2.3 million	420 thousand	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	12 Jan 2024 22:00	179	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	13 Jan 2024 04:00	201	2.3 million	860 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	13 Jan 2024 10:00	232	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	12 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.2, 56.7
2	12 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.6, 56.3
3	13 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-14.8, 55.8
4	13 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-15.8, 54.9
4	13 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-17.4, 54
4	14 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 4	211	no people	960000 people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	185	-18.9, 53.9
4	14 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 4	232	960000 people	2.2 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	204	-19.9, 54.4
4	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 4	222	960000 people	2.2 million people	Intense Tropical Cyclone	194	-20.8, 55.5	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	15 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 3	179	no people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	157	-21.4, 56.8
4	16 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 2	169	no people	2.3 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-21.8, 58.2
4	16 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 2	158	no people	2.3 million people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-21.9, 59.6
4	17 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 2	158	no people	270000 people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-21.9, 60.7
4	17 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 1	148	no people	150000 people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-21.9, 61.7
4	18 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-21.9, 62.4

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Reunion	880000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Reunion	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands	880000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saint-Denis		Reunion	Capital	140000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Saint Denis Gillot	RUN	20				0
St Pierre Pierrefonds	ZSE	16				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saint Denis		Reunion
Pointe Des Galets	REPDG	Reunion
Saint Pierre		Reunion

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Saint-Marie, Reunion. This height is estimated for 15 Jan 2024 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (34 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 13 Jan 2024 10:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Jan 2024 11:00	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.7
	15 Jan 2024 12:00	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.6
	15 Jan 2024 13:00	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.5
	15 Jan 2024 11:00	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.5
	15 Jan 2024 13:00	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.4
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Le Port	Reunion	0.4
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	La Possession	Reunion	0.4
	15 Jan 2024 14:00	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 15:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 15:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.2
	15 Jan 2024 15:00	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.2
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 14:00	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 14:00	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 11:00	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 11:00	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 12:00	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 13:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 04:00	Souillac	Mauritius	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.