Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for OTIS-23 in Mexico from 22 Oct 2023 15:00 UTC to 25 Oct 2023 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for OTIS-23

in Mexico

25 Oct 2023 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OTIS-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000209-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (25 Oct 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 25 Oct 2023 03:00 - 25 Oct 2023 09:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	259 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	22 Oct 2023 15:00	74	No people	No people
2	22 Oct 2023 21:00	74	No people	No people
3	23 Oct 2023 03:00	93	2.1 million	No people	Mexico
4	23 Oct 2023 09:00	93	2.5 million	No people	Mexico
5	23 Oct 2023 15:00	102	2.4 million	No people	Mexico
6	23 Oct 2023 21:00	111	2.7 million	No people	Mexico
7	24 Oct 2023 03:00	111	2.5 million	No people	Mexico
8	24 Oct 2023 09:00	139	2.2 million	970 thousand	Mexico
9	24 Oct 2023 15:00	148	2.2 million	410 thousand	Mexico
10	24 Oct 2023 21:00	222	2.3 million	300 thousand	Mexico
11	25 Oct 2023 00:00	259	2.3 million	300 thousand	Mexico
12	25 Oct 2023 03:00	259	2.2 million	1.1 million	Mexico
13	25 Oct 2023 09:00	213	2.9 million	1.2 million	Mexico
14	25 Oct 2023 15:00	130	4.2 million	1.4 million	Mexico
15	25 Oct 2023 21:00	56	2.9 million	1.4 million	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	22 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.9, -96.7
2	22 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.3, -96.9
3	23 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	11.1, -97.3
4	23 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	11.4, -97.1
5	23 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	12, -97.5
6	23 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.1, -97.6
7	24 Oct 2023 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.6, -97.9
8	24 Oct 2023 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.2, -98.5
9	24 Oct 2023 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.8, -99.1
10	24 Oct 2023 21:00	Category 3	204	no people	1.1 million people	15.3, -99.5
11	25 Oct 2023 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	1.1 million people	15.7, -99.6
12	25 Oct 2023 03:00	Category 5	259	1.1 million people	1.9 million people	16.1, -99.7
13	25 Oct 2023 09:00	Category 4	213	970000 people	2.7 million people	17.2, -100.1	Mexico
14	25 Oct 2023 15:00	Category 1	130	350000 people	2.1 million people	18.2, -100.6	Mexico
15	25 Oct 2023 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.1, -100.8	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mexico	2.7 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Michoacan	Mexico	140000 people
Guerrero	Mexico	2.4 million people
Mexico	Mexico	190000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Huetamo	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	22000 people
Coyuca de Catalán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	-
Teloloapan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	21000 people
Petatlán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Tecpan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	14000 people
Atoyac	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Chilpancingo	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	160000 people
Tixtla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	21000 people
Manzintla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	-
Acapulco	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	640000 people
San Marcos	Guerrero	Mexico	City	12000 people
Ayutla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	9900 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Huetamo		300				0
Santa Barbara		299				0
Chilpancingo		1280	Civ.	Paved	No	4400
Pie de la Cuesta		6				0
Alvarez International	ACA	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Acapulco	MXACA	Mexico
Puerto Marques		Mexico

Dams

Dam Name	River	Year
El Gallo	Cutzamala	1985
Vicente Guerrero	Poliutla	1968
Andres Figueroa	Ajuchitlan	1983
Carlos Ramirez Ulloa	Balsas	1986
El Guineo	Nexpa	1985

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Acapulco, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2023 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (7 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 25 Oct 2023 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Oct 2023 07:00	Acapulco	Mexico	0.7
	25 Oct 2023 07:00	El Marques	Mexico	0.5
	25 Oct 2023 10:00	El Papayo	Mexico	0.2
	24 Oct 2023 02:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2023 05:00	Mauricio Gutierrez	Mexico	0.1
	23 Oct 2023 21:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	24 Oct 2023 03:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.