Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for BELAL-24 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar from 12 Jan 2024 16:00 UTC to 12:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BELAL-24

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar

12 Jan 2024 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELAL-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mauritius
Exposed population	40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (16 Jan 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 43000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	12 Jan 2024 12:00	204	2.2 million	40 thousand	Mauritius

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	12 Jan 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-13.3, 56.6
1	13 Jan 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.4, 55.7
1	13 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15.9, 54.7
1	14 Jan 2024 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.5, 54
1	14 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	2.2 million people	-18.5, 54.1
1	15 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 3	204	43000 people	2.2 million people	-19.9, 55.7
1	16 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	2.2 million people	-21.7, 58.1
1	17 Jan 2024 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-23, 60.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mauritius	37000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mauritius	Mauritius	37000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Maheboug, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 16 Jan 2024 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (22 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 12 Jan 2024 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Jan 2024 04:00	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 03:00	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Choisy	Mauritius	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 23:00	Black River	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 03:00	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 03:00	Souillac	Mauritius	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Jan 2024 15:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 17:00	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 17:00	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 23:00	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.1
	15 Jan 2024 23:00	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 00:00	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.