Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BERYL-24 in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States from 28 Jun 2024 21:00 UTC to 03 Jul 2024 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24

in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2024-000105-VCT
Exposed countries	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States
Exposed population	2.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (01 Jul 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Jamaica)
Landfall	between 07 Jul 2024 06:00 - 08 Jul 2024 06:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	231 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

231 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	139	4.7 million	20 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	167	4.9 million	320 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	167	6.8 million	2.2 million	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	167	4.1 million	70 thousand	Jamaica
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	185	3.9 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	204	3.6 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	213	5.6 million	30 thousand	Grenada
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	222	6.7 million	150 thousand	Grenada, Mexico
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	231	9.1 million	450 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Mexico
10	01 Jul 2024 03:00	213	9.3 million	530 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Mexico
11	01 Jul 2024 09:00	157	7.5 million	470 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Mexico, Belize
12	01 Jul 2024 15:00	222	6.8 million	490 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
13	01 Jul 2024 21:00	241	7.1 million	200 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
14	02 Jul 2024 03:00	148	9.1 million	350 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
15	02 Jul 2024 09:00	194	10.9 million	740 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
16	02 Jul 2024 15:00	222	16 million	2.7 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
17	02 Jul 2024 21:00	231	18 million	2.6 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
18	03 Jul 2024 03:00	231	19.6 million	2.3 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
19	03 Jul 2024 09:00	231	19.8 million	1.1 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.1, -41.9
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.3, -43.6
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	9.8, -45.5
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	10, -47.8
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.1, -49.3
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.4, -51.2
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	10.7, -53.1
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	10.7, -54.9
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	300000 people	11.1, -56.5
10	01 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	740000 people	11.5, -58.1
11	01 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 3	194	130000 people	1.8 million people	11.7, -59.9
12	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 4	222	130000 people	1.3 million people	12.4, -61.3
13	01 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	241	no people	53000 people	13.2, -63.2
14	02 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	13.8, -64.9
15	02 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	14.6, -66.9
16	02 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 5	259	no people	4 million people	15.3, -68.9
17	02 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	250	no people	7.9 million people	15.9, -70.8
18	03 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	241	no people	8.7 million people	16.2, -72.7
19	03 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 4	231	210000 people	5.9 million people	16.6, -74.4
19	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 4	213	790000 people	2.9 million people	17.3, -76.9
19	04 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	280000 people	18.1, -80.4
19	04 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	1.8 million people	18.7, -83.8
19	05 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 2	157	200000 people	4.3 million people	19.4, -86.9
19	05 Jul 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.5 million people	20.1, -89.5	Mexico
19	06 Jul 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	13000 people	21.1, -91.9
19	07 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	3.3 million people	23, -95.5
19	08 Jul 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25, -98	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Jamaica	780000 people
Mexico	200000 people
Grenada	110000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Saint Thomas	Jamaica	32000 people
Saint Catherine	Jamaica	230000 people
Clarendon	Jamaica	200000 people
Manchester	Jamaica	170000 people
Saint Elizabeth	Jamaica	130000 people
Westmoreland	Jamaica	17000 people
Quintana Roo	Mexico	100000 people
Grenada	Grenada	110000 people
Yucatan	Mexico	100000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saint George's	Saint George	Grenada	Capital	4300 people
Peto	Yucatán	Mexico	City	18000 people
Tekax	Yucatán	Mexico	City	23000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Norman Manley International	KIN	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8900
Mandeville Marlbrough	MVJ	unknown				0
Kirkvine		366				0
Point Salines International	GND	12	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Union Island	UNI	unknown				0
Carriacou	CRU	unknown				0
J F Mitchell		4	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Palm Island	PLI	unknown				0
Canouan		5	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Carrillo Puerto		61				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Salt River	JMSRI	Jamaica
Port Esquivel	JMPEV	Jamaica
Port Kaiser	JMPKS	Jamaica
Black River	JMBLR	Jamaica
Bluefields		Jamaica
Herrero Point		Mexico
Saint George's	GDSTG	Grenada
Admiralty Bay		Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Engagement Umbrella, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. This height is estimated for 01 Jul 2024 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (55 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 01 Jul 2024 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Jul 2024 14:00	Engagement Umbrella	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.5
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Argyle	Grenada	0.4
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	L'Appelle	Grenada	0.4
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Ashton	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.4
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Canouan	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.4
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Brazalitta	Jamaica	0.4
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Mahoe Gardens	Jamaica	0.3
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Alley	Jamaica	0.3
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Old Harbor	Jamaica	0.3
	03 Jul 2024 19:00	Kingston	Jamaica	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Paso Real	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Grenville	Grenada	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Sabancuy	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Almacen	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Vigia Chico	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Puerto Madero	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Majana	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Noham	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Punta de Fisga	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Coloma	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Puerto Juarez	Mexico	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 13:00	Tunas de Zaza	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Cancun	Mexico	0.2
	01 Jul 2024 14:00	Mustique	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 02:00	Cauauira	Honduras	0.2
	01 Jul 2024 14:00	Prickley Bay	Grenada	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 14:00	Thebaide	Grenada	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Port Royal	Jamaica	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Hoquel	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Champoton	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Saint George's	Grenada	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 02:00	Dapat	Honduras	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 19:00	El Cuyo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2024 18:00	Colonia do Pescadores	Brazil	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Chacmuchuch	Mexico	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 02:00	Kaski	Honduras	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Telchac Puerto	Mexico	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 22:00	Mina de Oro	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	The Lance	Grenada	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Victoria	Grenada	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 19:00	Southfield	Jamaica	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 19:00	Alligator Pond	Jamaica	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Chabihau	Mexico	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 12:00	Carapichaima	Trinidad and Tobago	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 19:00	Chipepte	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Surgidero de Batabano	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 13:00	Tayabacoa	Cuba	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.