Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BERYL-24 in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico from 28 Jun 2024 21:00 UTC to 30 Jun 2024 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24

in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
Exposed population	1.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (01 Jul 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Jamaica)
Landfall	between 04 Jul 2024 18:00 - 05 Jul 2024 18:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	231 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

231 km/h Current Max.

Up to 450000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	139	4.7 million	20 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	167	4.9 million	320 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	167	6.8 million	2.2 million	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	167	4.1 million	70 thousand	Jamaica
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	185	3.9 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	204	3.6 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	213	5.6 million	30 thousand	Grenada
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	222	6.7 million	150 thousand	Grenada, Mexico
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	231	9.1 million	450 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.1, -41.9
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.3, -43.6
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	9.8, -45.5
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	10, -47.8
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.1, -49.3
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.4, -51.2
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	10.7, -53.1
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	10.7, -54.9
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	300000 people	11.1, -56.5
9	01 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 4	231	64000 people	1.4 million people	11.7, -59.1
9	01 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	240000 people	12.8, -62.6
9	02 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	14.2, -66.3
9	02 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	280000 people	15.4, -70.2
9	03 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	3.3 million people	16.4, -74
9	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	2.9 million people	17.3, -77.7
9	04 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 2	157	390000 people	4.4 million people	18.8, -84.4
9	05 Jul 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	20.3, -89.9	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Grenada	49000 people
Mexico	380000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Grenada	Grenada	49000 people
Quintana Roo	Mexico	96000 people
Yucatan	Mexico	230000 people
Campeche	Mexico	61000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Peto	Yucatán	Mexico	City	18000 people
Tekax	Yucatán	Mexico	City	23000 people
Oxkutzcab	Yucatán	Mexico	City	21000 people
Ticul	Yucatán	Mexico	City	30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Canouan		5	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Palm Island	PLI	unknown				0
Carriacou	CRU	unknown				0
Union Island	UNI	unknown				0
Carrillo Puerto		61				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Herrero Point		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Argyle, Grenada. This height is estimated for 01 Jul 2024 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (33 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 30 Jun 2024 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Argyle	Grenada	0.5
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	L'Appelle	Grenada	0.5
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Ashton	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.5
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Brazalitta	Jamaica	0.4
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Engagement Umbrella	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.4
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Canouan	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.4
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Mahoe Gardens	Jamaica	0.4
	03 Jul 2024 17:00	Alley	Jamaica	0.3
	03 Jul 2024 17:00	Old Harbor	Jamaica	0.3
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Kingston	Jamaica	0.3
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Grenville	Grenada	0.2
	01 Jul 2024 14:00	Mustique	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 22:00	Black River	Jamaica	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Port Royal	Jamaica	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Almacen	Cuba	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Punta de Fisga	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Coloma	Cuba	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 19:00	Southfield	Jamaica	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Alligator Pond	Jamaica	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 13:00	Tunas de Zaza	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	El Cuyo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Jun 2024 18:00	Colonia do Pescadores	Brazil	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Victoria	Grenada	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	The Lance	Grenada	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Prickley Bay	Grenada	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Thebaide	Grenada	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Saint George's	Grenada	0.1
	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Union	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Chipepte	Mexico	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Mina de Oro	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.