Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 17 May 2024 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	137 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (20 May 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	106 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	137 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	84	Few people	No people
2	16 May 2024 18:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 May 2024 00:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles
4	17 May 2024 06:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles
5	17 May 2024 12:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)
1	16 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9, 52.6
2	16 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9.1, 52.2
3	17 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9.2, 51.7
4	17 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9.1, 51
5	17 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-8.7, 50.3
5	18 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	<1000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-8.5, 49.2
5	18 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-8.4, 48.4
5	19 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	<1000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-8.2, 48
5	19 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-7.8, 47.8
5	20 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-7, 47.7
5	20 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-5.8, 47.8
5	21 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-4.4, 48.3
5	21 May 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-3.2, 49.3

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Seychelles	<1000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Seychelles	Seychelles	<1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Farquhar	3	Priv.	Paved	No	3100
Alphonse	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3100
Assumption Island	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saint Pierre Island		Seychelles
Providence Island		Seychelles
Cosmoledo Island		Seychelles
Astove Island		Seychelles
Assumption Island		Seychelles

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Makowe, Kenya. This height is estimated for 20 May 2024 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (17 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 17 May 2024 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 May 2024 12:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Amu	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 14:00	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.