Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DJOUNGOU-24 Off-shore from 15 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC to 19 Feb 2024 12:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DJOUNGOU-24

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

19/02 19:26 WTXS31PGTW192100

19/02 19:13 WTXS51PGTW192100

19/02 13:12 WTIO30FMEE191303

19/02 13:12 WTIO31FMEE191303

19/02 12:27 WTIO20FMEE191226

19/02 08:34 WTXS51PGTW190900

19/02 08:31 WTXS31PGTW190900

19/02 06:55 WTIO30FMEE190642

19/02 06:55 WTIO31FMEE190642

19/02 06:19 WTIO20FMEE190617

19/02 01:11 WTIO30FMEE190046

19/02 01:11 WTIO31FMEE190046

19/02 00:19 WTIO20FMEE190019

18/02 19:52 WTIO30FMEE181834

18/02 19:52 WTIO31FMEE181834

18/02 19:38 WTXS31PGTW182100

18/02 19:38 WTXS51PGTW182100

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 29.8S 92.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 41 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8S 92.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.4S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 35.8S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7S 93.9E. 19FEB24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1271 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 41 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS SHEARED 100+ NM SOUTHEASTWARD, FULLY EXPOSING A LARGE, RAGGED,
AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN-HOUSE AND CIMSS ANALYSES
INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 984 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 240219184848
2024021918 13S DJOUNGOU 009 02 130 41 SATL 020
T000 298S 0920E 055 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 055 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 334S 0995E 045 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 358S 1084E 035 R034 260 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 29.8S 92.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 41 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.8S 92.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.4S 99.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 35.8S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 30.7S 93.9E.
19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1271 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 41 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS SHEARED 100+ NM SOUTHEASTWARD, FULLY EXPOSING A LARGE, RAGGED,
AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN-HOUSE AND CIMSS ANALYSES
INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S
1324021112 126S 643E 15
1324021118 128S 651E 20
1324021200 130S 656E 20
1324021206 131S 659E 20
1324021212 134S 668E 15
1324021218 135S 674E 20
1324021300 138S 675E 20
1324021306 138S 667E 20
1324021312 136S 661E 20
1324021318 137S 656E 20
1324021400 140S 652E 20
1324021406 143S 649E 25
1324021412 145S 647E 25
1324021418 148S 644E 25
1324021500 153S 642E 30
1324021506 149S 641E 30
1324021512 151S 643E 30
1324021518 152S 649E 35
1324021600 159S 655E 45
1324021606 161S 657E 55
1324021606 161S 657E 55
1324021612 161S 661E 55
1324021612 161S 661E 55
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021812 198S 784E 125
1324021812 198S 784E 125
1324021812 198S 784E 125
1324021818 214S 807E 120
1324021818 214S 807E 120
1324021818 214S 807E 120
1324021900 233S 832E 105
1324021900 233S 832E 105
1324021900 233S 832E 105
1324021906 252S 855E 90
1324021906 252S 855E 90
1324021906 252S 855E 90
1324021912 273S 883E 75
1324021912 273S 883E 75
1324021912 273S 883E 75
1324021918 298S 920E 55
1324021918 298S 920E 55
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191303
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 88.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 30 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 55

24H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 101.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 165

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU HAS DEFINITIVELY LOST ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR (30KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS), A DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL
AND AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT HAS THEREFORE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION DESPITE EVNTS STILL AT 80KT.

DJOUNGOU WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, CHANNELED
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TOMORROW AS IT
WEAKENS. DJOUNGOU WILL QUIT RMSC AEREA OF RESPONSABILITY IN THE FEW
NEXT HOURS.

DJOUNGOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BECOMING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191303
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/6/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 88.2 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 30 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 20/02/2024 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 295 SO: 350 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 55

24H: 20/02/2024 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 101.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 165

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5 CI=4.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIA RES HEURES, DJOUNGOU A DEFINITIVEMENT PERDU SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES SOUS L'EFFET CONJOINT D'UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD-OUEST (30KT ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS), D'UN
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE ET D'UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC PAR LE
NORD-OUEST. IL A DONC ETE DECLASSE AU STADE DE DEPRESSION POST-TROPA
CALE MALGRE DES EVNTS ENCORE DE 80KT.

DJOUNGOU VA POURSUIVRE SON MOUVEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST, CANALISE
ENTRE UNE DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST-NORD-EST ET UN THALWEG AU SUD. SON
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR A PARTIR DE DEMAIN EN LIEN AVEC SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DJOUNGOU QUITTE LE DOMAINE DE RESPONSABILITE DU CMRS
DE LA REUNION DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES.

DJOUNGOU DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'AFFAIBLIR DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES
DANS CES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES ET DEVENIR UNE
DEPRESSION EXTRA-TROPICALE SOUS 24H.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191226
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/02/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DJOUNGOU) 961 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 88.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 30 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 0 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 190
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 00 UTC:
29.6 S / 94.8 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 12 UTC:
30.9 S / 101.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION. FURTHER
INFORMATIONS WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE SECURITE SHIPPING BULLETIN
FOR METAREA VIII(S) ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES OF
MAURITIUS (FQIO25 FIMP)=

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 240219075527
2024021906 13S DJOUNGOU 008 02 135 28 SATL 060
T000 252S 0855E 090 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 286S 0915E 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 313S 0983E 050 R050 100 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 329S 1045E 035 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 25.2S 85.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 85.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.6S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 31.3S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 87.0E.
19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 965 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1324021112 126S 643E 15
1324021118 128S 651E 20
1324021200 130S 656E 20
1324021206 131S 659E 20
1324021212 134S 668E 15
1324021218 135S 674E 20
1324021300 138S 675E 20
1324021306 138S 667E 20
1324021312 136S 661E 20
1324021318 137S 656E 20
1324021400 140S 652E 20
1324021406 143S 649E 25
1324021412 145S 647E 25
1324021418 148S 644E 25
1324021500 153S 642E 30
1324021506 149S 641E 30
1324021512 151S 643E 30
1324021518 152S 649E 35
1324021600 159S 655E 45
1324021606 161S 657E 55
1324021606 161S 657E 55
1324021612 161S 661E 55
1324021612 161S 661E 55
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021812 198S 784E 125
1324021812 198S 784E 125
1324021812 198S 784E 125
1324021818 214S 807E 120
1324021818 214S 807E 120
1324021818 214S 807E 120
1324021900 233S 832E 105
1324021900 233S 832E 105
1324021900 233S 832E 105
1324021906 252S 855E 90
1324021906 252S 855E 90
1324021906 252S 855E 90
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 25.2S 85.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 85.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.6S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 31.3S 98.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.9S 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 87.0E.
19FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1013 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
190600Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
16S (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/6/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 85.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 30 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 951 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75

24H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SW: 305 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 103.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU'S CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS CONTINUED
TO DETERIORATE, WITH A CLEAR WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW DRY AIR GAINING OVER THE
CENTER UNDER THE EFFECT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (ANALYZED AT
00UTC AT 31KT BY CIMSS). THE CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BE EXPOSED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE SSMIS F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0047
CLEARLY SHOWS THIS DISSYMMETRY IN CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY HAS
THEREFORE BEEN REDUCED TO 90KT, IN LINE WITH THE OBJECTIVE DATA
AVAILABLE.

DJOUNGOU IS CONTINUING ITS RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, CHANNELED
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ITS
MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TOMORROW AS IT WEAKENS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR IT TO LEAVE THE SOUTH-WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND
ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY THIS MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE 18UTC.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL
WEAKENS AND THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STRENGTHENS, ENCOURAGING
INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN
BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS EVENING BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A RESIDUAL
SYSTEM BY MID-WEEK.

THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/6/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 85.5 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 30 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 951 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2024 18 UTC: 28.4 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SO: 335 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 75

24H: 20/02/2024 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 98.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SO: 305 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 155 SO: 155 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 20/02/2024 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 103.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIA RES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
DJOUNGOU A CONTINUE A SE DEGRADE AVEC UN NET RECHAUFFEMENT DE LA
TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS DES NUAGES. PAR AILLEURS, SUR LES IMAGES
SATELLITES, ON DISTINGUE NETTEMENT L'AIR SEC GAGNER AU DESSUS DE
CENTRE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN FORT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST (ANALYSE A
00UTC A 31KT PAR LE CIMSS). LE CENTRE COMMENCE A ETRE EXPOSE SUR LES
DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS F17 DE 0047
MONTRE BIEN CETTE DISSYMETRIE DANS LA CONVECTION. L'INTENSITE A DONC
ETE BAISSEE A 90KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

DJOUNGOU POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST, CANALISE
ENTRE UNE DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST-NORD-EST ET UN THALWEG AU SUD. SON
MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR A PARTIR DE DEMAIN EN LIEN AVEC SON
AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION LE FAIT QUITTER LE BASSIN
SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN ET ENTRER DANS LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE
AUSTRALIENNE CE LUNDI SOIR AVANT 18UTC.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DETERIORENT DE PLUS EN PLUS AVEC
LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ACCOMPAGNEE D'UN RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST FAVORISANT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC PAR L'OUEST ET LE NORD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL CE SOIR AVANT D'A VOLUER EN SYSTEME RESIDUEL EN MILIEU
DE SEMAINE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190617
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/02/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 951 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 85.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 30 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 0 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 190
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/19 AT 18 UTC:
28.4 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 265 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 06 UTC:
30.6 S / 98.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 83.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 28 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 943 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/19 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 325 SW: 380 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2024/02/20 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 94.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 270 SW: 325 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 195 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 55

36H: 2024/02/20 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 101.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 345 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 155

48H: 2024/02/21 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 105.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=6.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DJOUNGOU'S EYE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS
DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND FINALLY DISAPPEARED FROM 20UTC, WITH
AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRICAL CLOUD MASS DUE TO WIND SHEAR, DESPITE
STILL INTENSE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE IMPACT OF SHEAR IS ALSO
VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES AMSR2 1945Z AND SSMIS-F18 2227Z, SHOWING
INCREASING EROSION OF THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND A BROADER INNER CORE.
THE INTENSITY IS THUS LOWERED TO 100KT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE
SYSTEM'S INERTIA AND THE LOWER INTENSITY GIVEN BY AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

DJOUNGOU WILL KEEP ITS FAST SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT THIS MONDAY,
CHANNELED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN FROM TUESDAY AS IT WEAKENS. THE
PRESENT FORECAST HAS IT LEAVE THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN AND
ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THIS MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE 18UTC.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GETTING WORSE DUE TO DECREASING OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT AND STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR FAVOURING
DRY AIR INTRUSIONS FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL THIS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
MID-WEEK.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190046
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/6/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 83.0 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 28 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/6.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 943 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2024 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 88.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 325 SO: 380 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

24H: 20/02/2024 00 UTC: 29.5 S / 94.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 270 SO: 325 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SO: 195 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 55

36H: 20/02/2024 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 101.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SO: 345 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 155

48H: 21/02/2024 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 105.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=6.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIA RES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE
DJOUNGOU EN IMAGERIE INFRAROUGE S'EST NETTEMENT DEGRADEE ET A FINI
PAR DISPARAITRE A PARTIR DE 20UTC, AVEC UNE MASSE NUAGEUSE DE PLUS EN
PLUS ASYMETRIQUE SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT, MALGRE UNE CONVECTION
ENCORE INTENSE PRES DU CENTRE. L'IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT EST AUSSI
VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 1945Z ET SSMIS-F18 2227Z,
MONTRANT UNE EROSION CROISSANTE DU NORD DU MUR DE L'OEIL ET UN
ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL. L'INTENSITE EST AINSI ABAISSE A
100KT, TENANT COMPTE DE L'INERTIE DU SYSTEME ET DE LA BAISSE
D'INTENSITE DONNEE PAR LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

DJOUNGOU POURSUIT SON MOUVEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-EST CE LUNDI,
CANALISE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST-NORD-EST ET UN TALWEG AU
SUD. SON MOUVEMENT DEVRAIT RALENTIR A PARTIR DE MARDI EN LIEN AVEC
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. LA PRESENTE PREVISION LE FAIT QUITTER LE BASSIN
SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN ET ENTRER DANS LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE
AUSTRALIENNE CE LUNDI SOIR AVANT 18UTC.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SE DETERIORENT DE PLUS EN PLUS AVEC
LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ACCOMPAGNEE D'UN RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST FAVORISANT DES INTRUSIONS D'AIR
SEC PAR L'OUEST ET LE NORD. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS DEVENIR
POST-TROPICAL CE LUNDI SOIR AVANT D'A VOLUER EN SYSTEME RESIDUEL EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/02/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/6 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/02/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU) 943 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 83.0 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 28 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN
A 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 190
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 210 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/02/19 AT 12 UTC:
26.8 S / 88.4 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 275 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2024/02/20 AT 00 UTC:
29.5 S / 94.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/6/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION 2024/02/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 80.9 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 28 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/02/19 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2024/02/19 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/02/20 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 175

48H: 2024/02/20 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 103.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING
UP
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2024/02/21 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 106.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

SINCE 12UTC, CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
07-20232024 HAS AT FIRST WEAKENED SLIGHTLY, THEN REINTENSIFIED IN THE
LOW'S NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, FORMING A SHORT CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND.
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS CURVATURE IS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE IN THE LATEST
IMAGES. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AND
ESTIMATED TO BE BELOW THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND,
NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF TROMELIN. MICROWAVE IMAGES SEEM TO SHOW THE
BEGINNING OF A CURVED BAND WITH A SMALL CONVECTIVE CORE. DVORAK
ANALYSIS AT 1.5+ IS PERHAPS A LITTLE LOW AND WILL PROBABLY BE REVISED
TO 2.0 AFTERHAND TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT RECENT STRUCTURE'S IMPROVEMENT
AROUND 18UTC. INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED AT 25KT, BUT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAGE SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE.

THIS TROPICAL LOW IS SET TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS THEN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DRIVEN BY NEAR-EQUATORIAL
HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SLOW ITS COURSE
EASTWARDS, DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST, EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY. ITS FINAL TRACK, WHICH SHOULD
TAKE IT NEAR THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (REUNION AND MAURITIUS), WILL
BE CLOSELY LINKED TO THE SWELLING OR DEFLATION OF THIS RIDGE BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, AND ALSO TO INTERACTION WITH A SUBTROPICAL TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH. ON THIS POINT, ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINIST NUMERICAL
OUTPUT DIFFER ON THE SCENARIO, RESULTING IN A VERY IMPORTANT
DISPERSION BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT RSMC TRACK FORECAST
THEREFORE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, AND WILL BE REFINED OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

SYSTEM 07-20232024 IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS : STRONG OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL, HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF THE
ORDER OF 5-10KT FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, AND GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE MARKED
BY AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. MOREOVER,
CONVERGENCE FROM THE MONSOON FLOW SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD REINFORCE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND THE CYCLOGENESIS AND
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY ONWARDS, MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
TROMELIN ISLAND:
- WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METRES OVERNIGHT, EASING ON TUESDAY.
- POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS, CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE COMPACT SYSTEM.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RAPIDLY IMPROVING
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.
SAINT-BRANDON ISLAND:
- RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100 TO 150 MM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
- WAVES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METERS ON TUESDAY, THEN BETWEEN 4 AND 5
METERS ON WEDNESDAY.
- POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM TUESDAY, THEN STORM FORCE WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181834
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/6/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (DJOUNGOU)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/02/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.5 S / 80.9 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 28 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 932 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 110 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 19/02/2024 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 85.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 19/02/2024 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 345 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 20/02/2024 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 98.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 285 SO: 315 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 175

48H: 20/02/2024 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 103.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 21/02/2024 06 UTC: 29.7 S / 106.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=1.5+

DEPUIS 12UTC, LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA PERTURBATION TROPICALE
07-20232024 S'EST D'ABORD UN PEU ATTENUEE PUIS S'EST REFORMEE DANS LA
PARTIE NORD-OUEST DU MINIMUM EN S'ORGANISANT EN UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE
FAIBLEMENT INCURVEE. LA COURBURE DES NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES
COMMENCE A S'AMELIORER SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LA POSITION EXACTE
DU CENTRE EST ASSEZ INCERTAINE ET ESTIMEE SOUS LA POINTE SUD-EST DE
LA BANDE CONVECTIVE, SITUEE MAINTENANT AU NORD-OUEST DE TROMELIN. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SEMBLENT MONTRER UNE AMORCE DE BANDE INCURVEE AVEC
UN PETIT COEUR CONVECTIF. L'ANALYSE DVORAK A 1.5+ EST PEUT-ETRE UN
PEU BASSE ET SERA PROBABLEMENT REVUE A 2.0 A POSTERIORI POUR TENIR
COMPTE DE L'AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE VERS 18UTC. L'INTENSITE
RESTE ESTIMEE A 25KT, MAIS LE STADE DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE EST
PROBABLEMENT TRES PROCHE.

CE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DU
NORD-EST PUIS EST-NORD-EST CES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES SOUS L'EFFET DE
HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS PROCHE-EQUATORIAUX. AU COURS DE LA SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENSUITE RALENTIR GRADUELLEMENT SA
COURSE EN DIRECTION DE L'EST, FREINE PAR LE GONFLEMENT D'UNE DORSALE
A L'EST, SE PROLONGEANT AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, CE QUI LUI FERA
FAIRE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI. SA TRAJECTOIRE FINALE, QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER PRES DES ILES
MASCAREIGNES (REUNION ET MAURICE), SERA ETROITEMENT LIEE AU
GONFLEMENT OU L'AFFAISSEMENT DE CETTE DORSALE ORIENTALE A HORIZON DE
JEUDI OU VENDREDI, AINSI QUE SON INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG
SUBTROPICAL PLUS AU SUD. SUR CE POINT, LES GUIDANCES ENSEMBLISTES ET
DETERMINISTES DIFFERENT SUR LE SCENARIO A TENIR, CE QUI SE CONCRETISE
PAR UNE DISPERSION TRES IMPORTANTE AU-DELA DES 48 PROCHAINES HEURES.
LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE DU CMRS RESTE DONC ASSEZ
INCERTAINE ET SERA AFFINEE AU FIL DES PROCHAINS JOURS.

LE SYSTEME 07-20232024 BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT D'EXCELLENTES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES : UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, UN
CONTENU EN HUMIDITE IMPORTANT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, UN FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE L'ORDRE DE 5-10KT DE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST
AINSI QU'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MARQUE PAR UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION DANS LE DEMI-CERLCE SUD. DE PLUS, LA CONVERGENCE DU FLUX
DE MOUSSON AU SEIN DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER CETTE NUIT,
RENFORCANT LA VORTICITE DE BASSES COUCHES ET ACCELERANT LE PROCESSUS
DE CYCLOGENA SE ET D'INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A JEUDI MATIN. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI SOIR OU VENDREDI, UNE CONTRAINTE MODEREE DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST,
POURRAIT CAUSER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, ACCOMPAGNEE D'UNE
BAISSE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

IMPACTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES :
ILE DE TROMELIN :
- MER TOTALE ENTRE 3 ET 4 METRES CETTE NUIT, S'AMORTISSANT MARDI.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 150 MM EN 24 HEURES,
RESSERRA ES AUTOUR DU SYSTEME COMPACT.
- VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT EN SOIREE ET JUSQU'A LUNDI MATIN.
AMELIORATION RAPIDE AVEC L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME.
ILE DE SAINT-BRANDON :
- CUMULS DE PLUIES DE 100 A 150 MM DANS LES 72 HEURES.
- MER TOTALE GROSSISSANT ENTRE 3 ET 4 METRES MARDI, PUIS ENTRE 4 ET 5
METRES MERCREDI.
- POSSIBLES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT A PARTIR DE MARDI, PUIS DE
FORCE TEMPETE MERCREDI.=

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.2S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.1S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 30.3S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 82.3E.
18FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1000 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z
IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 56 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 240218192125
2024021818 13S DJOUNGOU 007 01 125 29 SATL 040
T000 216S 0810E 120 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 165 SE QD 115 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 252S 0860E 105 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 281S 0916E 080 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 303S 0980E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 308S 1038E 040 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 21.6S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.2S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.1S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 30.3S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 30.8S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 82.3E.
18FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (DJOUNGOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1000 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 56 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z AND 192100Z.//
1324021112 126S 643E 15
1324021118 128S 651E 20
1324021200 130S 656E 20
1324021206 131S 659E 20
1324021212 134S 668E 15
1324021218 135S 674E 20
1324021300 138S 675E 20
1324021306 138S 667E 20
1324021312 136S 661E 20
1324021318 137S 656E 20
1324021400 140S 652E 20
1324021406 143S 649E 25
1324021412 145S 647E 25
1324021418 148S 644E 25
1324021500 153S 642E 30
1324021506 149S 641E 30
1324021512 151S 643E 30
1324021518 152S 649E 35
1324021600 159S 655E 45
1324021606 161S 657E 55
1324021606 161S 657E 55
1324021612 161S 661E 55
1324021612 161S 661E 55
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021618 162S 668E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021700 162S 675E 65
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021706 161S 689E 75
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021712 164S 703E 85
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021718 167S 722E 100
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021800 174S 739E 105
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021806 185S 762E 125
1324021812 199S 785E 125
1324021812 199S 785E 125
1324021812 199S 785E 125
1324021818 216S 810E 120
1324021818 216S 810E 120
1324021818 216S 810E 120
NNNN

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