Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CANDICE-24
in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 240127065500
2024012706 08S CANDICE 006 02 200 12 SATL 020
T000 286S 0605E 030
T012 309S 0594E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 28.6S 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 30.9S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 60.2E.
27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
539 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED,
RAGGED, WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS STRIPPED OF DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 08S HAS UNRAVELED AND DISSIPATED UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
HOURLY UPDATES.//
0824012200 159S 588E 20
0824012206 161S 592E 25
0824012212 163S 598E 20
0824012218 166S 602E 25
0824012300 174S 604E 25
0824012306 186S 599E 25
0824012312 197S 588E 25
0824012318 201S 579E 25
0824012400 203S 576E 30
0824012406 198S 574E 30
0824012412 197S 577E 30
0824012418 196S 573E 30
0824012500 208S 585E 45
0824012506 219S 596E 45
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012600 253S 614E 50
0824012606 262S 616E 45
0824012612 266S 615E 45
0824012618 271S 613E 45
0824012700 275S 609E 40
0824012706 286S 605E 30
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 28.6S 60.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6S 60.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 30.9S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 29.2S 60.2E. 27JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
539 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED,
RAGGED, WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS STRIPPED OF DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 08S HAS UNRAVELED AND DISSIPATED UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12 FEET.
THIS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOONWRNCEN PAERL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270705
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/3/20232024
1.A POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 815 SW: 705 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 500 SW: 370 NW: 220

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 530 SW: 380 NW: 0

24H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CANDICE NO LONGER DISPLAYS DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR ITS CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE IS CLEARLY ELONGATED. THE LATEST MODEL ANALYSES AND LAST
NIGHT'S AMSR2 WIND ESTIMATES STILL SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF 35-40KT
WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS A RESULT, CANDICE
HAS BEEN ANALYZED AS A 40KT POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 6Z.

CANDICE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY TOMORROW
SUNDAY, BLOCKED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. IN
AN ENVIRONMENT NOW UNFAVORABLE FROM EVERY POINT OF VIEW, CANDICE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BLEND INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY MONDAY.

NO IMPACT ON INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270705
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/3/20232024
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 28.6 S / 60.6 E
(VINGT HUIT DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 815 SO: 705 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 500 SO: 370 NO: 220

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 530 SO: 380 NO: 0

24H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

36H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
CANDICE NE PRESENTE PLUS D'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PROFONDE A PROXIMITE
DE SON CENTRE. LES IMAGES SATELLITES ET LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES
MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE DU COEUR EST NETTEMENT ALLONGEE. LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES MODELES AINSI QUE LES ESTIMATIONS DE VENT AMSR2 DE
LA NUIT DERNIERE PLAIDENT ENCORE POUR LA PRESENCE DE VENT DE L'ORDRE
DE 35 A 40KT NOTAMMENT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. EN CONSEQUENCE,
CANDICE A ET ANALYSEE EN DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 40KT A 6Z.

CANDICE CONTINUE SON DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR
D'ICI DEMAIN DIMANCHE BLOQUE PAR LA PRESENCE DE L'ANTICYCLONE AU SUD.
DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DESORMAIS DEFAVORABLE A TOUT POINT DE VUE,
CANDICE VA CONTINUER DE S'AFFAIBLIR ET DEVRAIT SE FONDRE AU SEIN D'UN
THALWEG DE SURFACE D'ICI LUNDI.

PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION CONCERNANT CE
SYSTEME, SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION. DES INFORMATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES
SUR CE SYSTEME, SERONT DISPONIBLES DANS LE BULLETIN QUOTIDIEN SUR LES
CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES TROPICALES SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN
INDIEN EMIS A 12Z (AWIO21 FMEE).=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (CANDICE) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.6 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 440 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
30.7 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 0 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
32.7 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE GMDSS MARINE
WARNINGS FQIO20 FMEE ISSUED TWICE DAILY AT 06Z AND 18Z BY METEO
FRANCE REUNION.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 240127014916
2024012700 08S CANDICE 005 02 220 05 SATL 050
T000 275S 0609E 040 R034 115 NE QD 290 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 295S 0597E 035 R034 020 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 318S 0591E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 27.5S 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.8S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 60.6E.
27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
270000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
0824012200 159S 588E 20
0824012206 161S 592E 25
0824012212 163S 598E 20
0824012218 166S 602E 25
0824012300 174S 604E 25
0824012306 186S 599E 25
0824012312 197S 588E 25
0824012318 201S 579E 25
0824012400 203S 576E 30
0824012406 198S 574E 30
0824012412 197S 577E 30
0824012418 196S 573E 30
0824012500 208S 585E 45
0824012506 219S 596E 45
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012600 253S 614E 50
0824012606 262S 616E 45
0824012612 266S 615E 45
0824012618 271S 613E 45
0824012700 275S 609E 40
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 27.5S 60.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 60.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.5S 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.8S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 60.6E.
27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
520 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
270000Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 270025
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.5 S / 60.7 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 270 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 440 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
29.4 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 400 NM SW: 295 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
31.5 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 385 NM SW: 305 NM NW: 160 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 61.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SW: 565 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SW: 465 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SW: 470 NW: 240

36H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SW: 480 NW: 250




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
CANDICE HAS ENTERED A PHASE OF SUSTAINED WEAKENING. IN FACT, THE
METEOR HAS JUST BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DUE TO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, CAUSED BY DETRIMENTAL
HIGH-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF UNDERLYING FRESH
WATER. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OBSERVED IN THE SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT
DURING THE PREVIOUS NETWORK IS NOW NON-EXISTENT, AND THEREFORE NO
LONGER ALLOWS FOR CLASSIC DVORAK ANALYSIS. IN THIS CONFIGURATION AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE DATA, PRECISE IDENTIFICATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLICATED.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CANDICE'S MOVEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RESUME AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY MOVEMENT ALONG THE
SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, CANDICE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALOFT, AS WELL AS AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION, THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS TO THE SOUTH MEANS THAT
CANDICE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING AN
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

NO IMPACT ON LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.8 S / 61.2 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SO: 565 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PEU PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SO: 465 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 140

24H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 455 SO: 470 NO: 240

36H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 32.7 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 455 SO: 480 NO: 250




2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
CANDICE A ENTAME SA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DURABLE. EN EFFET, LE
METEORE VIENT D'ETRE DECLASSE AU STADE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
EN RAISON DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE PLUS EN PLUS HOSTILES,
EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DELETERE POUR SA STUCTURE,
AINSI QUE LA PRESENCE D'EAUX FRAICHES SOUS-JACENTES. L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE RELEVEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST LORS DU PRECDENT RESEAU,
EST DESORMAIS INEXISTANTE ET NE PERMET DONC PLUS DE PROCEDER A UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK CLASSIQUE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION ET EN L'ABSENCE DE
DONNES MICRO-ONDE, L'IDENTIFICATION PRA CISE DU CENTRE DE BASSES
COUCHES EST RENDUE COMPLIQUEE.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS PAR RAPPORT AUX
PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES. LE DEPLACEMENT DE CANDICE EST PILOTE
ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. ELLE LUI IMPOSE
UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST CETTE NUIT ET DEMAIN.
PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES
FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT REPRIS A DES NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME
REPREND UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, CANDICE CONTINUERA A SUBIR UN RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD A NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE AINSI QU'UNE
INTRUSION D'AIR SEC QUI SE RAPPROCHE DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS
L'ARRIVEE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES AU SUD FAVORISE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DE CANDICE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H PUIS SON EVOLUTION EN DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE EN SE COMBLANT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261823
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.8 S / 61.2 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 390 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 305 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
28.3 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
30.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 130 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.0S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.9S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 32.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 62.3E.
26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
547 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 240126130252
2024012612 08S CANDICE 004 02 140 10 SATL 060
T000 268S 0625E 045 R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 325 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 280S 0616E 040 R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 240 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 299S 0603E 035 R034 070 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 321S 0595E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 26.8S 62.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 62.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.0S 61.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.9S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 32.1S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 27.1S 62.3E.
26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
547 NM SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0824012200 159S 588E 20
0824012206 161S 592E 25
0824012212 163S 598E 20
0824012218 166S 602E 25
0824012300 174S 604E 25
0824012306 186S 599E 25
0824012312 197S 588E 25
0824012318 201S 579E 25
0824012400 203S 576E 30
0824012406 198S 574E 30
0824012412 197S 577E 30
0824012418 196S 573E 30
0824012500 208S 585E 45
0824012506 219S 596E 45
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012600 253S 612E 50
0824012606 260S 618E 45
0824012612 268S 625E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20232024
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SW: 565 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 170 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 490 SW: 530 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SW: 295 NW: 10

24H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 10

36H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130

48H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
BASED ON THE ASCAT PASSES AT 0450Z AND 0502Z AND THE SMOS IMAGE AT
0226Z, CANDICE'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARDS SINCE 00UTC. THE
BEST-TRACK HAS THEREFORE BEEN MODIFIED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50KT IN THE SOUTH-WEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM
AT 00 AND 06Z.
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD
STRUCTURE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED TO A PERIMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER, NOTABLY IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RSMC THEREFORE MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 50KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
CANDICE'S MOVEMENT IS ESSENTIALLY DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL FORCE IT TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RESUME AT LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY MOVEMENT ALONG THE
SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, AFTER ITS SHORT PASSAGE TO THE STRONG TROPICAL
STORM STAGE TODAY, CANDICE IS EXPERIENCING A STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
APPROACHING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION, THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER WATERS TO THE SOUTH MEANS THAT
CANDICE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EVOLVE INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

NO IMPACT ON LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261244
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/3/20232024
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.6 S / 61.8 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SO: 565 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 170 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 490 SO: 530 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 270 SO: 295 NO: 10

24H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 380 SO: 425 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 10

36H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 130

48H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE



2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
EN S'APPUYANT SUR LES PASSES ASCAT DE 0450Z ET 0502Z AINSI QUE SUR
L'IMAGE SMOS DE 0226Z, L'INTENSITE DE CANDICE A ETE REVUE A LA HAUSSE
DEPUIS 00UTC. LA BEST-TRACK A DONC ETE MODIFIEE AVEC UN STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS MAX DE 50KT DANS LE QUADRANT
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME A 00 ET 06Z.
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS DANS LA STRUCTURE
NUAGEUSE DE LA FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CANDICE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
EST LIMITEE DANS UN PERIMETRE TRES PROCHE DU CENTRE, NOTAMMENT DANS
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. LE CMRS MAINTIENT DONC LE SYSTEME AU STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE AVEC DES VENTS DE 50KT.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, PEU DE CHANGEMENTS PAR RAPPORT AUX
PREVISIONS PRECEDENTES. LE DEPLACEMENT DE CANDICE EST PILOTE
ESSENTIELLEMENT PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME. ELLE LUI IMPOSE
UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD PUIS SUD-SUD-OUEST LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET
DEMAIN. PUIS A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME,
LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT REPRIS A DES NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME
REPREND UN MOUVEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA
DORSALE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, APRES SON COURT PASSAGE AU STADE DE FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE AUJOURD'HUI, CANDICE SUBIT UN RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT DE NORD A NORD-OUEST AINSI QU'UNE INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC QUI SE RAPPROCHE DU CENTRE DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS L'ARRIVEE
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES AU SUD FAVORISE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE
CANDICE DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H PUIS SON EVOLUTION EN DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE EN SE COMBLANT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

PAS D'IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261220
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.6 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 305 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
27.7 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 5 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
29.5 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 5 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 261210
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 61.8 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 90
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 305 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
27.7 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 5 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
29.5 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 5 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 61.5 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 305 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
27.1 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
28.4 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 275 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 240126013329
2024012600 08S CANDICE 003 02 160 08 SATL 060
T000 254S 0611E 045 R034 140 NE QD 220 SE QD 325 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 266S 0611E 045 R034 100 NE QD 220 SE QD 270 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 279S 0600E 040 R034 060 NE QD 250 SE QD 230 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 297S 0585E 035 R034 000 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 319S 0575E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.6S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.9S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.9S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 61.1E.
26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
381 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0824012200 159S 588E 20
0824012206 161S 592E 25
0824012212 163S 598E 20
0824012218 166S 602E 25
0824012300 174S 604E 25
0824012306 186S 599E 25
0824012312 197S 588E 25
0824012318 201S 579E 25
0824012400 203S 576E 30
0824012406 198S 574E 30
0824012412 197S 577E 30
0824012418 196S 573E 30
0824012500 208S 585E 45
0824012506 219S 596E 45
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012518 246S 608E 50
0824012600 254S 611E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 61.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.6S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.9S 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.7S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.9S 57.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 61.1E.
26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
381 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260000Z IS 982 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260055
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 61.4 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 285 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 95

36H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 100

48H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 165

60H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 34.3 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 185

72H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

CANDICE'S BAND CONFIGURATION IS CHANGING. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE
CURVED BAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE STRUCTURED AND IS ONCE AGAIN
SHOWING AN ALMOST COMPLETE WRAP. IN THIS CONFIGURATION, AND GIVEN THE
CONSERVATIVE TREND OF OTHER OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES, THE CI VALUE
OF 3.5- CAN BE MAINTAINED, I.E. WINDS OF 45KT. CANDICE REMAINS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

AFTER THE ACCELERATION NOTED ON THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK CHANGED LITTLE, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH MOVED IN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THE SYSTEM BEGINS A SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN, WITH THE TEMPORARY
WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH GIVES RISE TO A
NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A
SOUTH-EASTERLY TURN AT THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, THE SHORT
WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID-DAY FRIDAY, THANKS
TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS SHOULD
ENCOURAGE CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
THEN INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY.

WITH CANDICE NOW FURTHER AWAY, THE IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES IS
REDUCED AND CANDICE NO LONGER POSES A RISK TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260055
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.1 S / 61.4 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 280 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 27.3 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 280 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SO: 285 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 175 NO: 95

36H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 100

48H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 165

60H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 34.3 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SO: 325 NO: 185

72H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE DE CANDICE EST CHANGEANTE. AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, LA BANDE INCURVEE S'EST UN PEU MIEUX STRUCTUREE ET
LAISSE DE NOUVEAU APPARAITRE UN ENROULEMENT QUASIMENT COMPLET. DANS
CETTE CONFIGURATION ET AU REGARD DE LA TENDANCE CONSERVATIVE DES
AUTRES ANALYSES DVORAK OBJECTIVES, LA VALEUR DE CI DE 3.5- PEUT ETRE
CONSERVEE SOIT ENCORE DES VENTS A 45KT. CANDICE RESTE ENCORE AU STADE
DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

APRES L'ACCELERATION NOTEE LORS DE PRECEDENT RESEAU, LA TRAJECTOIRE A
PEU CHANGE AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE
D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME AMORCE
UN VIRAGE AU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE A
L'EST QUI IMPULSE UN FLUX DE NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLSSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT
REPRIS A DES NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME REPREND UNE VIRAGE VERS
LE SUD-EST EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST, QUI
GONFLE PAR LE NORD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. LA COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT PERSISTER
JUSQU'A LA MI-JOURNEE DE VENDREDI GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE
(FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ET DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN
HAUSSE). CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE VENDREDI MATIN OU EN JOURNEE. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE
LA PERTE DEFINITIVE DES EAUX CHAUDES TROPICALES AU SUD DE 25AOS
DEVRAIENT FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL SAMEDI
PUIS EVOLUANT EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE EN SE COMBLANT A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE.

SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE CANDICE, LES IMPACTS SUR LES MASCAREIGNES
SONT MOINDRES ET CANDICE NE PRESENTE PLUS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 260002
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.1 S / 61.4 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 135 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
27.3 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
28.4 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251918
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 61.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 380 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 0

36H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 335 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 85

48H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BAND CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED, WITH A
WRAP OF A FULL TURN OR MORE, BUT PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE INTRUSION OF
DRY AIR CUTTING THE CONTINUITY OF THE BAND. IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION,
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SEEM A LITTLE LOW, AND THE REUNION RSMC OPTS FOR A
SLIGHTLY LOWER T OF 3.5, ALTHOUGH THE ASCAT PASS OF 1713UTC LEAVES
MAXIMUM VALUES OF 40KT. CANDICE'S MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THEN ESTIMATED AT
45KT AT 18UTC, LEAVING THE SYSTEM STILL IN THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE.

THE MARKED ACCELERATION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAS SLIGHTLY ALTERED
THE TRACK, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST
AND A TROUGH ARRIVES TO THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THE SYSTEM BEGINS A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN, WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL
OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH GIVES RISE TO A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS
RETURN TO LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM RESUMES A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, THE SHORT
WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL MID-DAY FRIDAY, THANKS
TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE
DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS SHOULD
ENCOURAGE CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
THEN INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY.

WITH CANDICE NOW FURTHER AWAY, THE IMPACT ON THE MASCAREIGNES IS
REDUCED AND CANDICE NO LONGER POSES A RISK TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251917
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.9 S / 61.4 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 415 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 55

24H: 26/01/2024 18 UTC: 27.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 380 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 0

36H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 29.4 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 335 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 85

48H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

72H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC UN ENROULEMENT SUR UN TOUR COMPLET VOIRE PLUS MAIS
GENE PROBABLEMENT PAR L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC COUPANT LA CONTINUITE DE
LA BANDE. DANS UNE TELLE CONFIGURATION, LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES
SEMBLENT UN PEU BASSES ET LE CMRS DE LA REUNION OPTE POUR UN T DE 3.5
LEGEREMENT MINORE, BIEN QUE LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1713UTC LAISSE PLUTOT
DES VALEURS MAXIMALES DE 40KT. LES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE CANDICE SONT
ALORS ESTIMES A 45KT A 18UTC LAISSANT LE SYSTEME ENCORE AU STADE DE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE.

LA NETTE ACCELERATION SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES MODIFIE UN PEU LA
TRAJECTOIRE AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT S'ORIENTANT PLUS AU SUD-SUD-EST
JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN SOUS L'EFFET DE LA DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A
L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST. ENTRE VENDREDI ET
SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME AMORCE UN VIRAGE AU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RETRAIT
TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST QUI IMPULSE UN FLUX DE NORD-EST EN
ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC L'AFFAIBLSSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES
FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT REPRIS A DES NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME
REPREND UNE DIRECTION AU SUD-EST EN BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE
SITUEE A L'EST, QUI GONFLE PAR LE NORD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. MALGRE L'ARRIVEE DE CANDICE SUR DES EAUX MOINS
ENERGETIQUES, LA COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT PERSISTER
JUSQU'A LA MI-JOURNEE DE VENDREDI GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE
(FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ET DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN
HAUSSE). CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE VENDREDI MATIN. EN FIN DE SEMAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE LA PERTE
DEFINITIVE DES EAUX CHAUDES TROPICALES AU SUD DE 25AOS DEVRAIENT
FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL SAMEDI PUIS EVOLUANT
EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE EN SE COMBLANT A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

SUITE A L'ELOIGNEMENT DE CANDICE, LES IMPACTS SUR LES MASCAREIGNES
SONT MOINDRES ET CANDICE NE PRESENTE PLUS DE RISQUE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251802
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.9 S / 61.4 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
26.7 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
27.7 S / 60.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 0 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251416
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 415 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD CURVATURE BECAME MORE
PRONOUNCED. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS MUCH EASIER TO DISCERN IN
THE ANIMATIONS OF THE LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES. THE GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1032Z SHOWS A DISTRESSED INTERNAL STRUCTURE.
THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A TEMPORARY NORTHERLY STRESS IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE.
CANDICE'S INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 40 KT BY INERTIA, AND SUPPORTED BY A
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS (MET ADJUSTED) AS WELL AS THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DATA.

BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A
SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST, GIVING RISE TO A NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE
SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, A SHORT WINDOW
OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, THANKS TO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY NIGHT, OR EVEN FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS
SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS.

IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- ROUGH SEAS (3 METERS) UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, SLOWLY EASING OFF AFTER
THAT.

REUNION:
- MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, CONTINUING
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
- ROUGH SEAS 3/3.5 METERS, SLOWLY EASING FROM SATURDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- ROUGH SEAS 3/4 METRES, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY TODAY, DROPPING BELOW 3
METRES ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251416
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 415 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 140

24H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 325 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 0

48H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

72H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
LEGEREMENT RECHAUFFES SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE. POUR AUTANT, LA
COURBURE NUAGEUSE S'EST ACCENTUEE. LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES ETAIT DISCERNABLE BEAUCOUP PLUS FACILEMENT SUR LES ANIMATIONS
DES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES CLASSIQUES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GMI DE
1032Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE EN SOUFFRANCE. CELA EST SANS DOUTE
DU A UNE CONTRAINTE TEMPORAIRE DE SECTEUR NORD EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.
L'INTENSITE DE CANDICE EST LAISSEE A 40 KT PAR INERTIE, ET CONFORTE
PAR UNE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK (MET AJUSTE) AINSI QUE LES
DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES.

ENTRE UNE DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE AU SUD-EST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME AMORCE UN VIRAGE
AU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST QUI
IMPULSE UN FLUX DE NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLSSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT REPRIS A DES
NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME REPREND UNE DIRECTION AU SUD-EST EN
BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST, QUI GONFLE PAR LE
NORD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. MALGRA L'ARRIVEE DE CANDICE SUR DES EAUX MOINS
ENERGETIQUES, UNE COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT PERSISTER
JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ET DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE).
CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, VOIRE VENDREDI MATIN. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST
AINSI QUE LA PERTE DEFINITIVE DES EAUX CHAUDES TROPICALES AU SUD DE
25AOS DEVRAIENT FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL
SAMEDI S'AFFAIBLISSANT EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE SE COMBLANT A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MAURICE :
- MER FORTE (3 METRES) JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN, S'AMORTISSANT
LENTEMENT AU-DELA .

REUNION :
- PLUIES MODEREES SUR LA MOITIE SUD DE L'A LE, SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN.
- MER FORTE 3/3.5 METRES, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.

RODRIGUES :
- MER FORTE 3/4 METRES, S'AMORTISSANT RAPIDEMENT AUJOURD'HUI, POUR
DESCENDRE SOUS LA BARRE DES 3 METRES VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251352
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 415 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY UNDER THE
EFFECT OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HOWEVER, THE CLOUD CURVATURE BECAME MORE
PRONOUNCED. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WAS MUCH EASIER TO DISCERN IN
THE ANIMATIONS OF THE LATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES. THE GMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1032Z SHOWS A DISTRESSED INTERNAL STRUCTURE.
THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A TEMPORARY NORTHERLY STRESS IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE.
CANDICE'S INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 40 KT BY INERTIA, AND SUPPORTED BY A
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS (MET ADJUSTED) AS WELL AS THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DATA.

BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A
SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST, GIVING RISE TO A NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE
SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, A SHORT WINDOW
OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, THANKS TO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY NIGHT, OR EVEN FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS
SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS.

IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- ROUGH SEAS (3 METERS) UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, SLOWLY EASING OFF AFTER
THAT.

REUNION:
- MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, CONTINUING
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
- ROUGH SEAS 3/3.5 METERS, SLOWLY EASING FROM SATURDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- ROUGH SEAS 3/4 METRES, DIMINISHING RAPIDLY TODAY, DROPPING BELOW 3
METRES ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251352
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 415 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 140

24H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 325 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 0

48H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

72H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0 CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT
LEGEREMENT RECHAUFFES SOUS L'EFFET DU CYCLE DIURNE. POUR AUTANT, LA
COURBURE NUAGEUSE S'EST ACCENTUEE. LE CENTRE NUAGEUX DE BASSES
COUCHES ETAIT DISCERNABLE BEAUCOUP PLUS FACILEMENT SUR LES ANIMATIONS
DES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES CLASSIQUES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE GMI DE
1032Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE INTERNE EN SOUFFRANCE. CELA EST SANS DOUTE
DU A UNE CONTRAINTE TEMPORAIRE DE SECTEUR NORD EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE.
L'INTENSITE DE CANDICE EST LAISSEE A 40 KT PAR INERTIE, ET CONFORTE
PAR UNE ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK (MET AJUSTE) AINSI QUE LES
DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES.

ENTRE UNE DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE AU SUD-EST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME AMORCE UN VIRAGE
AU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST QUI
IMPULSE UN FLUX DE NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLSSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT REPRIS A DES
NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME REPREND UNE DIRECTION AU SUD-EST EN
BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST, QUI GONFLE PAR LE
NORD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. MALGRA L'ARRIVEE DE CANDICE SUR DES EAUX MOINS
ENERGETIQUES, UNE COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT PERSISTER
JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ET DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE).
CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, VOIRE VENDREDI MATIN. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST
AINSI QUE LA PERTE DEFINITIVE DES EAUX CHAUDES TROPICALES AU SUD DE
25AOS DEVRAIENT FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL
SAMEDI S'AFFAIBLISSANT EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE SE COMBLANT A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MAURICE :
- MER FORTE (3 METRES) JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN, S'AMORTISSANT
LENTEMENT AU-DELA .

REUNION :
- PLUIES MODEREES SUR LA MOITIE SUD DE L'A LE, SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN.
- MER FORTE 3/3.5 METRES, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.

RODRIGUES :
- MER FORTE 3/4 METRES, S'AMORTISSANT RAPIDEMENT AUJOURD'HUI, POUR
DESCENDRE SOUS LA BARRE DES 3 METRES VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 240125135549
2024012512 08S CANDICE 002 02 160 19 SATL 060
T000 236S 0604E 050 R050 175 NE QD 125 SE QD 190 SW QD 185 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 220 SE QD 325 SW QD 320 NW QD
T012 255S 0612E 055 R050 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 220 SE QD 320 SW QD 280 NW QD
T024 270S 0611E 055 R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE QD 320 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 284S 0602E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 270 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 306S 0586E 045 R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 210 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 343S 0576E 035 R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 355S 0582E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 23.6S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.5S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.0S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.6S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 34.3S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 35.5S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 60.6E.
25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
272 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z AND 261500Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0824012200 159S 588E 20
0824012206 161S 592E 25
0824012212 163S 598E 20
0824012218 166S 602E 25
0824012300 174S 604E 25
0824012306 186S 599E 25
0824012312 197S 588E 25
0824012318 201S 579E 25
0824012400 203S 576E 30
0824012406 198S 574E 30
0824012412 197S 577E 30
0824012418 196S 573E 30
0824012500 208S 585E 45
0824012506 218S 597E 45
0824012512 236S 604E 50
0824012512 236S 604E 50
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 23.6S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 25.5S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.0S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 28.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.6S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 34.3S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 35.5S 58.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 60.6E.
25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
272 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251310
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 415 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 140

24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SW: 325 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ANGGREK, MONITORED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BY THE
AUSTRALIAN WEATHER SERVICE, ENTERED OUR BASIN TODAY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER 08 UTC, AND SHOWED AN EYE PATTERN THAT HAS
GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 0949Z AND THE 0803Z AMSR2 SHOW A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
89GHZ CENTRAL CORE. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NETWORK, A HOT
SPOT SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP AGAIN, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
EYE PATTERN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON THE ADJUSTED MET POINTING TO A PT OF 4 WITH A CI OF 4.5.
THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM
CIMSS (AIDT/ADT), PROVIDING A CI AROUND 4.5+.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY HIGH
TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH-WEST.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. ANGGREK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY INTENSE UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK, AND MAY EVEN REACH THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR,
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR
LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND ABOVE ALL TO PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. FORECASTING INTENSITY IS
MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE
DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (NOTABLY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE).

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251310
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 415 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SO: 165 NO: 140

24H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.9 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 405 SO: 325 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 165 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 55 NO: 0

48H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 65

60H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

72H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ANGGREK

T=4.0 CI=4.5

LE SYSTEME TROPICAL ANGGREK, SUIVI CES DERNIERS JOURS PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE AUSTRALIEN, EST ENTRA DANS NOTRE BASSIN AUJOURD'HUI
AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, PEU APRES 08 UTC, ET PRA SENTAIT UNE
CONFIGURATION EN A IL QUI S'EST PEU A PEU DA LITA E DEPUIS CES
DERNIERES HEURES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F18 DE 0949Z AINSI QUE
L'AMSR2 DE 0803Z PRA SENTENT UN CA UR CENTRAL EN 89GHZ PARTICULIA
REMENT ROBUSTE. SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES AVANT LE RESEAU, UN POINT
CHAUD SEMBLE SE RECONSTITUER ET L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EN
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL POURRAIT ALORS ETRE A NOUVEAU POSSIBLE.
L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LE MET AJUSTE POINTANT UN
PT DE 4 AVEC UN CI DE 4.5. CETTE ANALYSE EST SUPPORTEE PAR LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (AIDT/ADT), PROPOSANT UN CI
AUTOUR DE 4.5+.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, DE PART SON STADE MATURE, ANGGREK EST PORTE
PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, GUIDES PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA
DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE
SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD-OUEST.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES,CE QUI DEVRAIT L'AMMENER AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EN JOURNA E DE DEMAIN. IL DEVRAIT GARDER UNE BELLE
INTENSITE JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE, VOIRE ATTEINDRE PONCTUELLEMENT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DIMANCHE, MALGRE UNE LEGERE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE DONT L'EFFICACITE EST CONTREBALANCEE
PAR LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE PLUS OU MOINS
RAPIDE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE MOINS EN
MOINS ENERGETIQUES ET SURTOUT EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
FORT PERSISTANT, DEVENANT GRADUELLEMENT TRAVERSANT. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE DIFFICILE COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME, QUI POURRAIT FLUCTUER EN RAISON DE MECANISMES INTERNES
(CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE LA A IL, NOTAMMENT).

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRA SENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=


Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251231
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
25.1 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT,
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 75 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
26.5 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250740
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 59.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 415 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

24H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 400 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 155 NW: 75

60H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 0 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 425 SW: 335 NW: 220


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
CANDICE HAVE WARMED UP, BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BECOME MORE CURVED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS DAWN BROKE, SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THE
VISIBLE RANGE MADE IT EASIER TO DISCERN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER.
THE LOCATION OF THIS LLCC WAS DETERMINED WITH A GOOD DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE, THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF THE ASCAT-B AT 0446 UTC. THE
WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND CONFIRM THE ASYMMETRY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ASCAT-B CLEARLY INDICATES AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 37 KT,
AND THEREFORE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 40 KT. THE PRESENT ANALYSIS
POINTS TO AN AVERAGE WIND OF 35KT AT 06Z, WHICH WILL BE CORRECTED ON
THE BEST-TRACK AT THE NEXT NETWORK.

BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM BEGINS A
SOUTH-WESTERLY TURN WITH THE TEMPORARY WITHDRAWAL OF THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST, GIVING RISE TO A NORTH-EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE MAIN FLOWS RETURN TO LOWER
LEVELS. THE SYSTEM TAKES ON A SOUTH-EASTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE
SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, WHICH SWELLS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DESPITE CANDICE'S ARRIVAL OVER LESS ENERGETIC WATERS, A SHORT WINDOW
OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING, THANKS TO A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY NIGHT, OR EVEN FRIDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH TO NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AND THE DEFINITIVE LOSS OF WARM TROPICAL WATERS SOUTH OF 25AOS
SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH FILLS IN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS.

IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
MAURITIUS:
- WITHDRAWAL OF NEAR GALE / GALE FORCE WINDS.
- WITHDRAWAL OF THE HEAVY RAINS.
- ROUGH SEAS (3 METERS) UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, SLOWLY EASING
AFTERWARDS.

REUNION:
- HEAVY RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 150 TO 200 MM IN 24 HOURS.
- ROUGH SEAS 3/3.5 METRES, SLOWLY EASING FROM SATURDAY.

RODRIGUES :
- ROUGH SEAS 3/4 METRES, EASING RAPIDLY TODAY, DROPPING BELOW 3
METRES ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250740
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.0 S / 59.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2024 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SO: 415 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85

24H: 26/01/2024 06 UTC: 25.9 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 415 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 26/01/2024 18 UTC: 27.3 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 500 SO: 380 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 85 NO: 0

48H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 400 SO: 305 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 155 NO: 75

60H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 31.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65

72H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 0 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 35.8 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 425 SO: 335 NO: 220


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE LA TEMPA TE
TROPICALE MODEREE CANDICE SE SONT RECHAUFFES, MAIS POUR AUTANT LES
NUAGES DE BASSES COUCHES ADOPTENT DAVANTAGE DE COURBURE SUR LES
DERNIERES HEURES. AVEC LE LEVER DU JOUR, LES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES
ISSUES DU DOMAINE VISIBLE, PERMETTENT DE MIEUX DISCERNER LE CENTRE
NUAGEUX DE BASSES COUCHES. LA LOCALISATION DE CELUI-CI A ETE RECALE
AVEC UNE BONNE CONFIANCE GRACE AU PASSAGE DE L'ASCAT-B DE 0446 UTC.
LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ONT DONC ETE REACTUALISEES ET CONFIRMENT BIEN
L'ASYMETRIE DU SYSTEME, POINTANT LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE EST DU SYSTEME. L'ASCAT-B INDIQUE DE FAA ON CLAIRE UNE
INTENSITA DE L'ORDRE DE 37 KT, ET DONC DES VENTS MOYENS MAXIMAUX DE
40 KT. LA PRESENTE ANALYSE POINTE A 06Z UN VENT MOYEN DE 35KT, CELA
SERA CORRIGE SUR LA BEST-TRACK AU PROCHAIN RESEAU.

ENTRE UNE DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ORIENTE AU SUD-EST JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN. ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME AMORCE UN VIRAGE
AU SUD-OUEST AVEC LE RETRAIT TEMPORAIRE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST QUI
IMPULSE UN FLUX DE NORD-EST EN ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, AVEC
L'AFFAIBLSSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LES FLUX DIRECTEURS SONT REPRIS A DES
NIVEAUX INFERIEURS. LE SYSTEME REPREND UNE DIRECTION AU SUD-EST EN
BORDURE SUD-OUEST DE LA DORSALE SITUEE A L'EST, QUI GONFLE PAR LE
NORD DU SYSTEME.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. MALGRA L'ARRIVEE DE CANDICE SUR DES EAUX MOINS
ENERGETIQUES, UNE COURTE FENETRE D'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT PERSISTER
JUSQU'A VENDREDI SOIR GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT FAVORABLE (FAIBLE
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT ET DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE).
CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
DANS LA NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI, VOIRE VENDREDI MATIN. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD A NORD-OUEST
AINSI QUE LA PERTE DEFINITIVE DES EAUX CHAUDES TROPICALES AU SUD DE
25AOS DEVRAIENT FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL
SAMEDI S'AFFAIBLISSANT EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE SE COMBLANT A
PARTIR DE DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :
MAURICE :
- EN RETRAIT DU GRAND FRAIS ET DU COUP DE VENT.
- EN RETRAIT DES FORTES PLUIES
- MER FORTE (3 METRES) JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN, S'AMORTISSANT
LENTEMENT AU-DELA .

REUNION :
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LA MOITIE SUD DE L'A LE, SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A
VENDREDI MATIN.
- MER FORTE 3/3.5 METRES, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI.

RODRIGUES :
- MER FORTE 3/4 METRES, S'AMORTISSANT RAPIDEMENT AUJOURD'HUI, POUR
DESCENDRE SOUS LA BARRE DES 3 METRES VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 250613
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 59.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 320 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
24.3 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 45 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
25.9 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 225 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 240125011637
2024012500 08S CANDICE 001 02 150 11 SATL 060
T000 208S 0585E 045 R034 300 NE QD 220 SE QD 325 SW QD 320 NW QD
T012 227S 0596E 055 R050 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 245S 0604E 060 R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 200 SW QD 150 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 240 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 259S 0602E 065 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 270 SE QD 300 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 274S 0591E 055 R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 220 SW QD 160 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 300 SE QD 320 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 319S 0567E 035 R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 210 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 351S 0599E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.5S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.9S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.9S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 35.1S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 58.8E.
25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0824012200 159S 588E 20
0824012206 161S 592E 25
0824012212 163S 598E 20
0824012218 166S 602E 25
0824012300 174S 604E 25
0824012306 186S 599E 25
0824012312 197S 588E 25
0824012318 201S 579E 25
0824012400 203S 576E 30
0824012406 198S 574E 30
0824012412 197S 577E 30
0824012418 198S 579E 30
0824012500 208S 585E 45
NNNN


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 58.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
325 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
320 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 58.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.7S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.5S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 25.9S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.9S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 35.1S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 58.8E.
25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 250000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 250029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 59.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SW: 85 NW: 155

24H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 120 NW: 175

60H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 185

72H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 435 SW: 335 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SW: 150 NW: 195

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CANDICE'S CLOUD PATTERN HASN'T REALLY
IMPROVED. AFTER A TEMPORARY DROP IN INTENSITY, CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
CENTER, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF RENEWED INTENSIFICATION.
NEVERTHELESS, RECENT MICROWAVE DATA (AMSR2 2131Z) SHOWS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY REMAINS
ESTIMATED AT 40 KT WITHIN AN ASYMMETRICAL WIND STRUCTURE. THE
ESTIMATED POSITION AT 00UTC INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND
EASTWARDLY SHIFTED TRACK THAN INITIALLY FORECAST.

BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT IS ACCELERATING
SOUTHEASTWARDS UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY, WITH THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, CANDICE SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
BEFORE BEING DRIVEN INTO A LOW-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND 35S
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO LOWER
LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24-36H THANKS TO
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD
REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD
LEAD CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY SATURDAY,
WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FILLING IN FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE WINDS SEEM QUITE UNLIKELY NOW.
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE UNTIL FRIDAY. LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO
50MM TO 200MM IN 24HRS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGH GROUNDS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M, SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 300MM IN 24H, REACHING
400 TO 600MM ON EXPOSED HIGH GROUNDS OVER THE WHOLE EPISODE.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M, SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M, SLOWLY WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 250029
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 59.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 240 SO: 0 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 220 SO: 85 NO: 155

24H: 26/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.6 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 100 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 250 SO: 110 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SO: 305 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SO: 120 NO: 175

60H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 405 SO: 315 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SO: 140 NO: 185

72H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 31.5 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 435 SO: 335 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 285 SO: 150 NO: 195

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 34.5 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE CANDICE
NE S'EST PAS FRANCHEMENT AMELIOREE. APRES AVOIR CONNU UNE PETITE
BAISSE D'INTENSITE, LA CONVECTION SE RENFORCE ACTUELLEMENT A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DU CENTRE, CE QUI POURRAIT ETRE UN SIGNE DE
REPRISE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. NEANMOINS, LES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES (AMSR2 2131Z) MONTRE UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES ENCORE
EN BORDURE SUD DE LA CONVECTION PROFONDE. EN L'ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES
DONNEES OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE RESTE ESTIMEE A 40 KT AU SEIN D'UNE
STRUCTURE VENTEUSE QUI RESTE ASYMETRIQUE. LA POSITION ESTIMEE A 00UTC
TEMOIGNE D'UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE ET PLUS A L'EST
QU'INITIALEMENT PREVU.

ENTRE UNE DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCELERE VERS LE SUD-EST
JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN. ENTRE VENDREDI SOIR ET SAMEDI, AVEC
L'ISOLEMENT EN CUT-OFF DU TALWEG AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR ET LA
HAUSSE DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, CANDICE
DEVRAIT FAIRE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVANT D'ETRE REPRISE PAR UN
TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES VERS 35S ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, PEU DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. UNE INTENSIFICATION GRADUELLE DEVRAIT PERSISTER AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24-36H GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE (BON
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EN BAISSE ET DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENTRE CE SOIR ET VENDREDI. EN FIN DE SEMAINE,
LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE LA
BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL SAMEDI
S'AFFAIBLISSANT EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE SE COMBLANT A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MAURICE :
- LE RISQUE D'ATTEINDRE LE COUP DE VENT SEMBLE DESORMAIS NEGLIGEABLE.
- FORTES PLUIES LOCALES POSSIBLES JUSQU'A VENDREDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE
DE 50MM A 200MM EN 24H NOTAMMENT SUR LE RELIEF
- MER TRES FORTE 4M, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI
SOIR.

REUNION :
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LA MOITIE SUD, SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 300MM EN 24H, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 400
A 600MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE L'EPISODE.
- MER TRES FORTE 4M, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT A PARTIR DE VENDREDI
SOIR.

RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE 4M, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 250009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 59.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
22.9 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 85 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
24.6 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241945
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 58.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 205

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/25 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 165

24H: 2024/01/25 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

36H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 360 SW: 285 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 150 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SW: 315 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 185

72H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 445 SW: 335 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 195

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, INTENSE CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE
SYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. CANDICE HAS RESUMED AN EASTWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, AS SHOWN BY THE WIND ROTATION AT PLAISANCE
STATION (MAURITIUS). THE STORM'S CENTER HAS REMAINED ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN THEN SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS, BUT OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO TENDED TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE CENTER, SHOWING BETTER ORGANIZATION AND A FORMING CURVED
BAND, AS WELL AS LIKELY DECREASING EFFECTS OF SHEAR. THIS IMPROVED
CONFIGURATION ENABLES TO ESTIMATE A SLIGHT INCREASE OF INTENSITY UP
TO 40KT, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY ESTIMATED IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT AND POSSIBLY ALSO PARTIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS ASYMMETRICAL, WITH WEAKER WINDS IN ITS
SOUTH-WEST SEMICIRCLE, AS SHOWN BY A PARTIAL ASCAT-B PASS THIS
EVENING AT 1736Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS BETWEEN 2.5+ AND 3.0.

BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH-WEST, THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-EAST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY,
WITH THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CUT-OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR AND BUILDING HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, CANDICE SHOULD MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
BEFORE BEING DRIVEN INTO A LOW-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AROUND 35S
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS TO LOWER
LEVELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36H THANKS TO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL, DECREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). CANDICE COULD THEN
REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE CANDICE TO EVOLVE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, WEAKENING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION AND
FILLING IN FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE POSSIBLE UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING (LOW PROBABILITY).
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LOCALLY UNTIL THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF 50MM TO 200MM IN 24HRS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHLANDS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY
EVENING.

REUNION :
- HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ISLAND, CONTINUING UNTIL
FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 300MM IN 24H, REACHING
400 TO 600MM ON EXPOSED HIGH GROUNDS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING, WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY
EVENING.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING THURSDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241945
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 58.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 120 SO: 0 NO: 205

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2024 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 165

24H: 25/01/2024 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

36H: 26/01/2024 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 360 SO: 285 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 65

48H: 26/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 390 SO: 305 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65

60H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 415 SO: 315 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 270 SO: 185 NO: 185

72H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 445 SO: 335 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 195

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, UNE CONVECTION INTENSE A PERSISTE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME. CANDICE A REPRIS UN MOUVEMENT
VERS L'EST PUIS SUD-EST, COMME LE MONTRE LA ROTATION DU VENT SUR LA
STATION DE PLAISANCE (MAURICE). LE CENTRE EST RESTE EN BORDURE
SUD-EST PUIS SUD DE LA MASSE CONVECTIVE MAIS SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES
LA CONVECTION TEND A S'ENROULER AUSSI SUR LA BORDURE EST DU CENTRE,
MONTRANT UN LEGER GAIN D'ORGANISATION ET UNE AMORCE DE BANDE INCURVEE
ET UNE PROBABLE BAISSE DES EFFETS DU CISAILLEMENT. CETTE AMELIORATION
DE LA CONFIGURATION PERMET D'ESTIMER L'INTENSITE EN HAUSSE A 40KT,
AVEC DU COUP DE VENT PRINCIPALEMENT ESTIME DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST
ET POUVANT DEBORDER AUSSI PARTIELLEMENT SUR LES QUADRANTS NORD-OUEST
ET SUD-EST. LE SYSTEME RESTE ASYMETRIQUE, AVEC DES VENTS PLUS FAIBLES
DANS UN DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST, COMME LE MONTRE UNE PASSE ASCAT-B
PARTIELLE CE SOIR A 1736Z. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST COMPRISE
ENTRE 2.5+ ET 3.0.

ENTRE UNE DORSALE QUI SE RENFORCE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST, LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VA S'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST
JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN. ENTRE VENDREDI SOIR ET SAMEDI, AVEC
L'ISOLEMENT EN CUT-OFF DU TALWEG AU SUD-EST DE MADAGASCAR ET LA
HAUSSE DES GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD PUIS SUD-EST DU SYSTEME, CANDICE
DEVRAIT FAIRE UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVANT D'ETRE REPRISE PAR UN
TALWEG DE BASSES COUCHES VERS 35S ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. L'INTENSIFICATION DEVRAIT PERSISTER AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36H GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS FAVORABLE (FORT
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EN BAISSE ET DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI. EN FIN DE SEMAINE,
LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST AINSI QUE LA
BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE EVOLUTION EN SYSTEME POST-TROPICAL SAMEDI
S'AFFAIBLISSANT EN DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE SE COMBLANT A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MAURICE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE D'ICI JEUDI MATIN (PROBABILITE FAIBLE).
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A JEUDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE
DE 50MM A 200MM EN 24H NOTAMMENT SUR LE RELIEF
- MER TRES FORTE 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR. AMORTISSEMENT LENT A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.

REUNION :
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LA MOITIE SUD, SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 300MM EN 24H, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 400
A 600MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.
- MER TRES FORTE 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR. AMORTISSEMENT LENT A
PARTIR DE VENDREDI SOIR.

RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE 4M CE MERCREDI SOIR, S'AMORTISSANT LENTEMENT
VENDREDI.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241818
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 58.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/25 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
23.6 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 180 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20232024
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 57.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 230 SW: 0 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/25 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 140 SW: 0 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100

24H: 2024/01/25 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 110 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

36H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 415 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 75

72H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 95 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=2.5+

AT 08UTC, THE MAURITIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE NAMED THE SYSTEM
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS RELATIVELY DIMINISHED AND REMAINS MAINLY CONTAINED IN
THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. SUMMITS REMAIN QUITE
COLD. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEMS BETTER DEFINED AND THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AS SHOWN BY
THE GPM 37 AND 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASSES AT 1126Z. THIS OFFSET OF THE
CENTER CERTAINLY REFLECTS SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. A DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
PT OF 2.5+ CONFIRMS VALUES OF 35KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE FIRST STAGES REMAIN TRICKY DUE TO A WEAK
STEERING FLOW. CURRENTLY LOOPING OR QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF
MAURITIUS, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM CANDICE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARDS. WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SOUTH-WESTERLY TROUGH TODAY AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH-EAST, THE MAIN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-WEST, FAVORING AN ACCELERATING MOVEMENT
TO THE SOUTH-EAST. AT 24 HOURS, CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS BETTER,
WITH A CONSENSUS AMONG ALL THE NUMERICAL MODELS. BY FRIDAY, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN EAST, AND
THE EASING OF THE MAIN FLOW, CANDICE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN
SOUTH-WEST, ACCELERATING AGAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CANDICE
IS BENEFITING IN THE SHORT TERM FROM EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ON THE
EQUATORIAL COAST, WITH A POWERFUL MONSOON FLOW. INTENSIFICATION IS
BEGINNING AND SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36-48H THANKS TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL,
DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE).
CANDICE COULD THEN REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS INTENSIFICATION, SINCE THE MODELS ARE
NOT ALL CONVERGING AS TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE, SO
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE AS TO THE CHOICE OF
PROGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OR EVEN EXTRATROPICALIZE.

EXPECTED IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS:

MAURITIUS:
- GALE FORCE POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF
50MM TO 200MM IN 24HRS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHLANDS.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

REUNION :
- NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY.
- HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN HALF, CONTINUING UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 100 TO 200MM IN 24H, REACHING 300 TO 500MM ON
EXPOSED RELIEF.
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

RODRIGUES :
- VERY ROUGH SEA 4M FROM WEDNESDAY, WEAKENING THURSDAY EVENING.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/3/20232024
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (CANDICE)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 57.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 230 SO: 0 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 25/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 140 SO: 0 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100

24H: 25/01/2024 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 110 SO: 315 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 65

36H: 26/01/2024 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 415 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 155 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 45

48H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 425 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 75

72H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 270 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SO: 95 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 31.8 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
PT=CI=2.5+

A 08UTC, LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE MAURICIEN A BAPTISE LE SYSTEME EN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CANDICE. AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES,
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A RELATIVEMENT DIMINUE ET RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT
CONTENUE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST DE LA CIRCULATION. LES SOMMETS
RESTENT BIEN FROIDS. LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES SEMBLE MIEUX
DEFINIE ET LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME RESTE EN BORDURE DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE COMME LE MONTRENT LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES GPM 37 ET 85 GHZ DE
1126Z. CE DECALAGE DU CENTRE TRADUIT CERTAINEMENT UN CISAILLEMENT SUR
LE SYSTEME. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN PT DE 2.5+ CONFIRME DES VALEURS DE
35KT.

EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE, LES PREMIERES ECHEANCES RESTENT DELICATES DU
FAIT D'UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PEU MARQUE. ACTUELLEMENT REALISANT UNE
BOUCLE OU DU QUASI-STATIONNAIRE AU NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE, LA TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE CANDICE VA CONTINUER A SE DEPLACER LENTEMENT AVEC
LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE. AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST AUJOURD'HUI ET LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE AU NORD-EST,
LE FLUX DIRECTEUR TOURNE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU NORD-OUEST FAVORISANT UN
DEPLACEMENT S'ACCELERANT VERS LE SUD-EST. A ECHEANCE DE 24H, LA
CONFIANCE DANS LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MEILLEURE AVEC UN CONSENSUS PARMI
L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES NUMERIQUES. A ECHEANCE DE VENDREDI, AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST PUIS A L'EST ET LA
BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR, CANDICE DEVRAIT RALENTIR PUIS
S'ORIENTER AU SUD-OUEST EN ACCELERANT DE NOUVEAU.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT PAR RAPPORT A LA PRECEDENTE
PREVISION. CANDICE BENEFICIE A COURTE ECHEANCE D'UNE EXCELLENTE
CONVERGENCE COTE EQUATORIAL AVEC UNE PUISSANTE ALIMENTATION DU FLUX
DE MOUSSON. L'INTENSIFICATION COMMENCE ET DEVRAIT PERSISTER AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 36-48H GRACE A UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
FAVORABLE (FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL EN BAISSE
ET DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EN HAUSSE). CANDICE POURRAIT ALORS ATTEINDRE
LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ENTRE JEUDI ET VENDREDI.
NEANMOINS UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE DEMEURE SUR CETTE INTENSIFICATION
PUISQUE LES MODELES NE CONVERGENT PAS TOUS QUANT A LA CONSOLIDATION
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME, LES PROCHAINES HEURES SERONT PLUS INFORMATIVES
QUANT AU CHOIX DE L'INTENSIFICATION PROGRESSIVE CHOISIE. EN FIN DE
SEMAINE, LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST AINSI
QUE LA BAISSE SENSIBLE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S DEVRAIT
FAVORISER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME VOIRE SON EXTRATROPICALISATION
.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS DANS LES PROCHAINES 72H :

MAURICE :
- COUP DE VENT POSSIBLE DURANT LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES POSSIBLES JUSQU'A JEUDI. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 50MM A
200MM EN 24H NOTAMMENT SUR LE RELIEF
- MER TRES FORTE 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR.

REUNION :
- GRAND FRAIS POSSIBLE DURANT LA NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI.
- FORTES PLUIES SUR LA MOITIE SUD, SE POURSUIVANT JUSQU'A VENDREDI
MATIN. CUMULS DE L'ORDRE DE 100 A 200MM EN 24H, POUVANT ATTEINDRE 300
A 500MM SUR LE RELIEF EXPOSE.
- MER TRES FORTE 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SOIR.

RODRIGUES :
- MER TRES FORTE 4M A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, FAIBLISSANT JEUDI EN
SOIREE.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241158
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 24/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (CANDICE) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 57.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 125 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/25 AT 00 UTC:
21.1 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 55 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
22.9 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 0 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=