Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ANGGREK-24 Off-shore from 15 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC to 31 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 32.4S 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 35 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4S 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 36.2S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 33.3S 84.8E.
31JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1767 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ELONGATED. THE CIRCULATION IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT
THIS POINT, WHICH IS DRIVING SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES DOWN TO THE 35 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER, A SERIES OF
SAR AND ULTRA-HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASSES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS CONFIRMED THAT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST. SO, WHILE STILL WEAKENING,
THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTH SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS AND JTWC PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MAKING
THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS ETT PROCESS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM RACES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A ROBUST
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A STRONG STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 40 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 30.6S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.7S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 36.2S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 31.1S 77.5E.
30JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1196 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 75.8 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

24H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 55 SW: 120 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 220

48H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 44.2 S / 107.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SW: 195 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS,
SHOWING A SLIGHT TEMPORARY COOLING. ANGGREK'S MAIN CHARACTERISTIC IS
ITS WIND STRUCTURE: CYCLONIC-FORCE WINDS BUT AN INCREASINGLY
ASSYMETRICAL STRUCTURE, AS SHOWN BY THE ASCAT PASS AT 1708UTC. WINDS
OF AROUND 65KT ARE STILL ESTIMATED. THE TROPICAL STRUCTURE IS GIVING
WAY TO A POST-CYCLONIC STRUCTURE

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS NOW HEADING SOUTHEAST UNDER
THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW JOINTLY DRIVEN BY A TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. ON THIS TRACK, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE
RAPID MID-LATITUDES.

ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION
PHASE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE, DRIVEN BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, BECOMING A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH WINDS
REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.

ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS NEVERTHELESS
CONTINUING TO EVOLVE IN TEMPERATE LATITUDES.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.6 S / 75.8 E
(TRENTE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 165 SO: 260 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

24H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 120 SO: 215 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 55 SO: 120 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 01/02/2024 06 UTC: 39.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SO: 195 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 220

48H: 01/02/2024 18 UTC: 44.2 S / 107.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 630 SE: 370 SO: 195 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 220

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ANGGREK A PEU EVOLUE AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, PRESENTANT UN LEGER REFROIDISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE.
ANGGREK SE CARACTERISE PRINCIPALEMENT PAR SA STRUCTURE EN VENT : VENT
DE FORCE CYCLONIQUE MAIS STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS ASSYMETRIQUE COMME
LE MONTRE LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1708UTC. DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 65KT
SONT ENCORE ESTIMES. LA STRUCTURE TROPICALE S'ESTOMPE AU PROFIT D'UNE
STRUCTURE POST-CYCLONIQUE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK SE DIRIGE
DESORMAIS AU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN TALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR UNE DORSALE A
L'EST. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN ETANT REPRIS PAR LA RAPIDE CIRCULATION PERTURBEE DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK VA POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT TOUT EN DEBUTANT SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION TRES PROCHAINEMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE PROCESSUS
BAROCLINES. TOUTEFOIS, IL DEVRAIT GARDER UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE,
SE TRANSFORMANT EN UNE PUISSANTE TEMPETE EXTRATROPICALE AU COURS DE
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE DE LA
TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.

CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER POUR CE SYSTEME QUI CONTINUE TOUTEFOIS SON
EVOLUTION DANS LES LATITUDES TEMPEREES.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 301800
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 976 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 75.8 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
32.2 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
34.9 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH STILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSE.=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301353
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 74.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 140 SW: 240 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 95 SW: 175 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 55

36H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 195

48H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 101.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

ANGGREK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS WARMED UP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DUE TO
ADVERSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UNDERLYING COLD WATERS, STRONG WIND
SHEAR (WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS) AND THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. DUE TO INERTIA, THE SYSTEM STILL RETAINS
STRONG WINDS OF AROUND 70KT, WHILE RETAINING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS
DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE
RAPID MID-LATITUDES.

ANGGREK WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE BEGINNING ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT
OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD RETAIN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY, TRANSFORMING INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.

ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301353
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 30.0 S / 74.2 E
(TRENTE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 140 SO: 240 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 95 SO: 175 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 55

36H: 01/02/2024 00 UTC: 37.1 S / 93.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 195

48H: 01/02/2024 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 101.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 220 SO: 175 NO: 220

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ANGGREK S'EST RECHAUFFEE AU COURS DES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, EN RAISON DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DELETERES
(EAUX FROIDES SOUS-JACENTE, FORT CISAILLEMENT DE VENT (EN HAUSSE
DEPUIS CES DERNIERES 24 HEURES) ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC A PROXIMITE DU
COEUR. PAR INERTIE, LE SYSTEME GARDE ENCORE DES VENTS FORTS DE
L'ORDRE DE 70KT TOUT EN GARDANT POUR ENCORE QUELQUES HEURES SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK SE DIRIGE
DESORMAIS AU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN TALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR UNE DORSALE A
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN ETANT REPRIS PAR LA RAPIDE CIRCULATION PERTURBEE DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK VA POURSUIVRE SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT TOUT EN DA BUTANT SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION AU COURS DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES, SOUS
L'EFFET DE PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ACTIFS. TOUTEFOIS, IL DEVRAIT GARDER
UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE, SE TRANSFORMANT EN UNE PUISSANTE TEMPETE
EXTRATROPICALE D'ICI MERCREDI AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU
STADE DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 301219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.0 S / 74.2 E
(THIRTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE FROM THE
CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
31.4 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
33.3 S / 84.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 29.1S 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1S 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 36.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 29.5S 73.6E.
30JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1002 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300725
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 72.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 55

48H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.5 S / 99.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 535 SW: 260 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 230 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0

SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN GRADUALLY DISSIPATED,
COUPLED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTION GRADUALLY
PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER UNDER THE EFFECT
OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS DATA. FMEE'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS PUTS THE AVERAGE WIND INTENSITY AT AROUND 80 KT; A VALUE
SUPPORTED BY THE CALIBRATED ASCAT PASS AT 0444Z, WITH WINDS OF AROUND
80/85 KT MAXIMUM, WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE COLLAPSE OF
OBJECTIVE US INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE THE PREVIOUS EVENING.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK NOW HEADING SOUTHEASTWARDS
DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE
RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK.

ANGGREK IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A LACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD
GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS,
BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM
STRENGTH.

ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS0=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300725
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.1 S / 72.5 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 50 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 32.2 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 165 SO: 230 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 34.9 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 35 SO: 0 NO: 55

48H: 01/02/2024 06 UTC: 41.5 S / 99.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 585 SE: 535 SO: 260 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SO: 230 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

PEU APRES 00Z, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'ANGGREK, S'EST PEU A PEU
DISSIPEE, COUPLEE A UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ET D'UNE
ASYMETRIE DE LA CONVECTION REPOUSSEE GRADUELLEMENT AU SUD-EST DU
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SOUS L'EFFET D'UN PUISANT CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-OUEST, EN HAUSSE DEPUIS CES 24 DERNIERES HEURES SELON
LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMSS. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE FMEE PORTE UNE
INTENSITE DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 80 KT; VALEUR SUPPORTEE PAR
LA PASSE ASCAT CALIBREE DE 0444Z QUI PRESENTE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE
80/85 KT MAXIMUM, CE QUI RESTE COHA RENT AVEC L'EFFONDREMENT DES
ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES AMERICAINES DEPUIS LA VEILLE AU
SOIR.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK SE DIRIGE
DESORMAIS AU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN TALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR UNE DORSALE A
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES EN ETANT REPRIS PAR LA RAPIDE CIRCULATION PERTURBEE DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK MONTRE DES SIGNES EVIDENT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, QUI DEVRAIENT
S'ACCENTUER CE MARDI EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT ET
L'ABSENCE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SOUS-JACENT. SOUS L'EFFET DE
PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ACTIFS, IL DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI MAIS TOUT GARDANT
UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE, SE TRANSFORMANT EN UNE PUISSANTE TEMPETE
EXTRATROPICALE D'ICI JEUDI AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE
DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 300627
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.1 S / 72.5 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 210 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 85
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
30.7 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
32.2 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300036
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 71.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 961 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 155 SW: 230 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 120 SW: 215 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 65 SW: 110 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 55

48H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 94.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 0

60H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 105.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK'S EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DETERIORATE SLIGHTLY WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A MORE ASYMMETRICAL
STRUCTURE DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. THE INNER CORE REMAINS QUITE
STRONG THOUGH, AS THE 2012Z AMSR2 PASS SHOWS. INTENSITY IS DECREASED
AT 85KT, IN LINE WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS STARTING A SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE MERGING INTO THE
RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK.

ANGGREK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
RAPID DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.

ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300036
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.9 S / 71.5 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 961 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 140 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 175 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 155 SO: 230 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 84.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 120 SO: 215 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 65 SO: 110 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 55

48H: 01/02/2024 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 94.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 240 SO: 150 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 0

60H: 01/02/2024 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 105.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL D'ANGGREK A
CONTINUE A SE DEGRADER LEGEREMENT AVEC DES SOMMETS MOINS FROIDS ET
UNE STRUCTURE PLUS ASYMETRIQUE SOUS L'EFFET DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT. LA STRUCTURE INTERNE RESTE ENCORE RELATIVEMENT SOLIDE,
COMME LE MONTRE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES AMSR2 DE 2012Z. L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 85KT, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE L'ANALYSE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ET LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK ENTAME UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN TALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR UNE
DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN ETANT REPRIS PAR LA RAPIDE CIRCULATION
PERTURBEE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK COMMENCE A MONTRER DES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, QUI
DEVRAIENT S'ACCENTUER CE MARDI EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. SOUS L'EFFET DE PROCESSUS
BAROCLINES ACTIFS, IL DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI MAIS TOUT GARDANT
UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE, SE TRANSFORMANT EN UNE PUISSANTE TEMPETE
EXTRATROPICALE D'ICI JEUDI AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE
DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 300009
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 30/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 961 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.9 S / 71.5 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
30.0 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
31.3 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 26.3S 70.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 70.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.6S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.4S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.2S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 34.4S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 26.9S 71.2E.
29JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
832 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291815
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 70.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 165 SW: 215 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65

60H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 99.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 230 SW: 110 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5- CI=5.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE
PATTERN, BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY, PROBABLY IN CONNECTION
WITH THE DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 25S. THE CLOUD MASS
TENDS TO BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD DUE TO
INCREASING WIND SHEAR. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90KT, IN LINE WITH
AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
1643Z ASCAT-C PASS.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS STARTING A SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN DUE TO A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, IT
SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WHILE
MERGING INTO THE RAPID MID-LATITUDES STORM TRACK.

ANGGREK IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR AND A
RAPID DROP IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. UNDER THE EFFECT OF ACTIVE
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, BUT STILL RETAIN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY, THUS BECOMING A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.

ANGGREK DOES NOT THREAT INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291815
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.4 S / 70.9 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 956 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 31.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SO: 250 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 165 SO: 215 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 65

60H: 01/02/2024 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 99.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 230 SO: 110 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5- CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ANGGREK A GARDE UNE CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL BIEN DEFINIE, MAIS LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT LEGEREMENT
RECHAUFFES, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA BAISSE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE AU SUD DE 25S. LA MASSE NUAGEUSE TEND A DEVENIR PLUS
ASYMETRIQUE ET DEPORTEE VERS LE SUD, TEMOIGNANT DE LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT. L'INTENSITE EST LEGEREMENT ABAISSEE A 90KT EN ACCORD
AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES ET EN
COHERENCE AVEC LA PASSE ASCAT-C DE 1643Z.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK ENTAME UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN TALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA
DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL DEVRAIT ACCELERER DAVANTAGE
VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES EN ETANT REPRIS PAR LA RAPIDE
CIRCULATION PERTURBEE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK COMMENCE A MONTRER DES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, QUI
DEVRAIENT S'ACCENTUER A PARTIR DE MARDI EN LIEN AVEC LA HAUSSE DU
CISAILLEMENT ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. SOUS L'EFFET
DE PROCESSUS BAROCLINES ACTIFS, IL DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES A PARTIR DE MERCREDI MAIS TOUT GARDANT
UNE INTENSITE SIGNIFICATIVE, SE TRANSFORMANT EN UNE PUISSANTE TEMPETE
EXTRATROPICALE D'ICI JEUDI AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE
DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE MENACE AUCUNE TERRE HABITEE.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 291806
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 956 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.4 S / 70.9 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
28.8 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
30.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 952 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 91.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 215 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 65

72H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 99.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 405 SW: 240 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN THE EYE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE. THE SYMMETRY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT, WITH ONE EYE
APPEARING SHARPER. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE EYE ANALYSIS WITH SHORT TIME
STEPS SHOWS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST FEW MOMENTS WITH A
T OF 5.5+, LEAVING ESTIMATED WINDS AT 95KT, WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY
REACH 100KT WITH A T OF 6.0- NOT FAR OFF. ANGGREK REMAINS AN INTENSE
TOPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. ANGGREK IS BEING STEERED BY MID/HIGH
TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS SHIFTING
EASTWARDS. ANGGREK WILL INITIALLY DIP FURTHER SOUTH, AND FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE ACTION OF
A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID-WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD
ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, GUIDED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE SPREAD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS IT
EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL) OVER THE SHORT
TERM. IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND MAY
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE SHORT TERM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A BURST. THE
EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR STRESS IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO
CIMSS ANALYSES THIS MONDAY, BUT THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT OF ANGGREK
SHOULD WEAKEN IT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY: A
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE DAMAGING
ACTION OF WIND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THESE
INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW
WEAKENING STARTING THIS MONDAY. THIS WEAKENING IS SET TO ACCELERATE
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND
THE OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD
KEEP IT AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL MID-LATITUDES, WITH
WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.

ANGGREK PRESENTS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291219
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 70.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 952 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.5 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 175 SO: 150 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

36H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SO: 140 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

60H: 01/02/2024 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 91.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SO: 215 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 65

72H: 01/02/2024 12 UTC: 42.2 S / 99.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 405 SO: 240 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 335 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 85

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL A
PEU EVOLUE. LA SYMETRIE EST RESTE ASSEZ CONSTANTE AVEC CEPENDANT UN
OEIL QUI APPARAIT PLUS NET. DANS CE CONTEXTE, L'ANALYSE EN OEIL AVEC
DES PAS DE TEMPS RAPPROCHE PERMET DE NOTER UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION
SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS AVEC UN T DE 5.5+ LAISSANT DES VENTS
ESTIMES A 95KT QUI POURRAIENT ATTEINDRE TEMPORAIREMENT LES 100KT AVEC
UN T A 6.0- QUI N'EST PAS LOIN. ANGGREK RESTE UN CYCLONE TOPICAL
INTENSE ET DEVRAIT MAINTENIR CETTE INTENSITE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK EST
PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE DECALE VERS L'EST. ANGGREK VA
PLONGER DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS ET A PARTIR DE MARDI,
ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS
L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN TALWEG A
L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE,
LE METEORE DEVRAIT ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES
GUIDE PAR UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST LARGEMENT
SUPPORTE PAR LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES QUI MONTRENT UNE FAIBLE
DISPERSION, A L'EXCEPTION D'UNE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT UN PEU
DIFFERENTE SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE LORS DE SON EVACUATION VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT) SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES. IL DEVRAIT AVOIR ATTEINT SON
PIC D'INTENSITE ET POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE A CETTE INTENSITE SUR
LES COURTES ECHEANCES. UN LEGER REGAIN D'INTENSITE EST TOUTEFOIS
POSSIBLE SUR LES PROCHAINES 6H MAIS CE NE SERA QU'UN SURSAUT. LA
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST COMMENCE A AUGMENTER
D'APRES LES ANALYSES DU CIMSS EN CE LUNDI, MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE
D'ANGGREK DEVRAIT SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT AU MOINS POUR LES PROCHAINES 24
HEURES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT FAVORISER DES
VARIATIONS BRUTALES D'INTENSITE : UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE MAIS L'ACTION NEFASTE DU CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT VA CERTAINEMENT AFFAIBLIR PROCHAINEMENT LE SYSTEME AVANT CES
MODIFICATIONS DE STRUCTURE INTERNE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR
UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION MERCREDI,
MAIS DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES POURRAIENT LE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE
TRES SIGNIFICATIVE JUSQU'AUX MOYENNES LATITUDES AVEC DES VENTS
RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 291157
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 952 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 70.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
27.5 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
29.4 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 71.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 71.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.2S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.4S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.2S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3S 71.1E. 29JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
798 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS,
HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 960 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 45 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z AND 300900Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290621
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 71.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 195 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

72H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 425 SW: 260 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS RESUMED IN
SYMMETRY, BUT THE RING REMAINS SMALL, MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE TO
INCREASE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. THIS EYE ANALYSIS, CARRIED OUT OVER
SHORT TIME STEPS, YIELDS A FAIRLY SATISFIED VALUE OF AROUND 5.5 OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS, THE
SLIGHT OFFSET FROM THE CENTER OBSERVED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING
REMAINS. ANGGREK IS STILL AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, BUT ITS INTENSITY SEEMS TO HAVE PEAKED AND SHOULD THEREFORE
STAGNATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK. ANGGREK IS BEING STEERED BY MID/HIGH
TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS NOW
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING
RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. WITH THE
EASTERLY SHIFT OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY, ANGGREK WILL INITIALLY MOVE
FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD START TO TURN
SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY
BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
BY MID-WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, GUIDED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS
LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE SYSTEMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE
DISPERSION, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SPEED AT THE
END OF THE RANGE AS IT EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL) OVER THE SHORT
TERM. IT SHOULD HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY, AND COULD CONTINUE
TO DO SO IN THE SHORT TERM. AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR STRESS IS SET TO
INCREASE THIS MONDAY, BUT THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF ANGGREK IN THE SAME
DIRECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF DRY ADVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT THE DAMAGING ACTION OF WIND
SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE THESE INTERNAL
STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING
STARTING THIS MONDAY. THIS WEAKENING IS SET TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND THE OCEAN
POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES COULD
KEEP IT AT A VERY SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY UNTIL MID-LATITUDES, WITH
WINDS REMAINING ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.

ANGGREK PRESENTS NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290621
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7 S / 71.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

36H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

48H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 195 SO: 270 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 88.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

72H: 01/02/2024 06 UTC: 41.4 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 650 SE: 425 SO: 260 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
D'ANGGREK A REPRIS EN SYMETRIE MAIS L'ANNEAU RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE
NE PERMETTANT PAS D'AUGMENTER L'ANALYSE DVORAK. CETTE ANALYSE EN OEIL
FAITE SUR DES PAS DE TEMPS RAPPROCHES PERMET D'OBTENIR UNE VALEUR
ASSEZ CONTENTE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES DE L'ORDRE DE 5.5.
MALGRE L'ABSENCE DE PASSE MICRO-ONDE RECENTE, ON CONSERVE ENCORE LE
LEGER DECALAGE DU CENTRE OBSERVE LORS DU BULLETIN PRECEDENT. ANGGREK
RESTE ENCORE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE MAIS SON INTENSITE
SEMBLE AVOIR ATTEINT SON PIC ET DEVRAIT DONC STAGNER AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES HEURES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. ANGGREK EST
PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE PLACE MAINTENANT AU SUD-EST DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-SUD-OUEST. AVEC LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE EN CE LUNDI,
ANGGREK VA PLONGER DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. A PARTIR
DE MARDI, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST
SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN
TALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES
AUSTRALES GUIDE PAR UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES QUI MONTRENT UNE
FAIBLE DISPERSION, A L'EXCEPTION D'UNE VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT UN PEU
DIFFERENTE SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE LORS DE SON EVACUATION VERS LES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT) SUR LES COURTES ECHEANCES. IL DEVRAIT AVOIR ATTEINT SON
PIC D'INTENSITE ET POURRAIT SE MAINTENIR ENCORE A CETTE INTENSITE SUR
LES COURTES ECHEANCES. UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER CE LUNDI, MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE
D'ANGGREK DANS LA MEME DIRECTION DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE
D'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME AU MOINS POUR LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT
FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES D'INTENSITE. UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE MAIS L'ACTION
NEFASTE DU CISAILLEMENT DE VENT VA CERTAINEMENT AFFAIBLIR
PROCHAINEMENT LE SYSTEME AVANT CES MODIFICATIONS DE STRUCTURE
INTERNE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
PARTIR DE CE LUNDI. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER MARDI ET
MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET LA
BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON
EXTRATROPICALISATION MERCREDI, MAIS DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES
POURRAIENT LE MAINTENIR A UNE INTENSITE TRES SIGNIFICATIVE JUSQU'AUX
MOYENNES LATITUDES AVEC DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE DE LA
TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290600
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 71.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
26.3 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
28.6 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290044
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 72.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 93.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS BECOME
LESS SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE IS LESS CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE IR
SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS DECREASED TO
5.5. INDEED, THE IR PICTURE SHOWED SOME KIND OF CONCENTRIC RINGS THAT
MIGHT SUGGEST THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. HOWEVER,
THIS IS NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE 2204Z GPM MICROWAVE PICTURE. BY
INERTIA THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 100KT, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
KNES SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS
DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING
RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. THIS MONDAY ONWARDS,
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH
WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY MID NEXT WEEK, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW
VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER
DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT PROBABLY HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND MAY HOLD THIS MORNING. AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS
MONDAY, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION,
EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER,
AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST
ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS WINDS ABOVE STORM FORCE WHILE IT TRACKS
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE.

ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290044
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.6 S / 72.1 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 140 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 155 SO: 220 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

72H: 01/02/2024 00 UTC: 37.8 S / 93.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5 CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
D'ANGGREK A PERDU EN SYMETRIE ET L'OEIL EST MOINS BIEN DEFINI SUR
L'IMAGE SATELLITE IR. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST DESCENDUE A
5.5. EN EFFET L'IMAGE IR A MONTRE UN SEMBLANT D'ANNEAUX CONCENTRIQUES
POUVANT FAIRE PENSER A UN DEBUT D'ERC. TOUTEFOIS CELA N'APPARAIT PAS
CLAIREMENT SUR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES GPM DE 2204Z. L'INTENSITE EST
MAINTENUE A 100KT PAR INERTIE EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DU
KNES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. DE PAR SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST. CE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER
LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI,
ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS
L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG
A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES
LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES
SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT). IL DEVRAIT AVOIR ATTEINT SON PIC D'INTENSITE ET POURRAIT
SE MAINTENIR ENCORE CE MATIN. UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER CE LUNDI, MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE
D'ANGGREK DANS LA MEME DIRECTION DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE
D'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME AU MOINS POUR LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT
FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES D'INTENSITE. UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE CE LUNDI. CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION
MERCREDI, MAIS DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES POURRAIENT LE MAINTENIR A UNE
INTENSITE TRES SIGNIFICATIVE JUSQU'AUX MOYENNES LATITUDES AVEC DES
VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290018
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6 S / 72.1 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 105 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
25.0 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
27.3 S / 71.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 73.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 73.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.7S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.2S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.6S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 30.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 34.9S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 72.7E.
28JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
877 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
281800Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS
48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 73.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/01 18 UTC: 45.6 S / 105.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 730 SE: 565 SW: 305 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 350
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS BECOME
MORE SYMMETRICAL AND THE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED ON THE IR
SATELLITE PICTURE. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS RISEN TO 6.0.
THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE OF 13H18 UTC HAS ENABLED US TO DETERMINE A
MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS OF 8 MN. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 100KT IS
MAINLY BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SOME SATCON MEMBERS.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS
DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING
RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY
BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL
SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER
DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE
KEEP INTENSIFYING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY
IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN EYE REPLACEMENT CYCLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL
RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD MAINTAIN IT ABOVE
STORM FORCE INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION.

ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281843
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.6 S / 73.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 215 SO: 140 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 165 SO: 195 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 110 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 220 SO: 270 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 33.5 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2024 18 UTC: 45.6 S / 105.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 730 SE: 565 SO: 305 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 390 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 350
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 100

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
D'ANGGREK A GAGNE EN SYMETRIE ET L'OEIL EST TOUJOURS BIEN DEFINI SUR
L'IMAGE SATELLITE IR. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST MONTEE A 6.0.
L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 13H18 UTC NOUS A PERMIS DE DETERMINER UN
RAYON DE VENT MAXIMAL DE 8 MN. L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 100KT EST
PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ET ELLE EST EN
ACCORD AVEC CERTAINS MEMBRES DU SATCON.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. DE PAR SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA DORSALE
A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT). IL POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER CETTE NUIT OU
LUNDI MATIN. UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT
AUGMENTER D'ICI DEMAIN, MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE D'ANGGREK DANS LA
MEME DIRECTION DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE D'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME AU MOINS POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LA PETITE
TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS
BRUTALES D'INTENSITE. DE PLUS, LA SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL N'EST PAS A EXCLURE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR
UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION
MARDI/MERCREDI, MAIS DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES POURRAIENT LE MAINTENIR
A UNE INTENSITE TRES SIGNIFICATIVE JUSQU'AUX MOYENNES LATITUDES AVEC
DES VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6 S / 73.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
23.7 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
26.3 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 80 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281218
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 655 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 490
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 305
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS
INTENSIFIED, TEMPORARILY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE
EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS RISEN TO BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0.
THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONTRACTION OF THE EYEWALL.
ANGGREK'S CORE IS INDEED VERY COMPACT, WITH A RMW ESTIMATED NEAR 8MN.
SOME PERIPHERAL BANDING SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP PARTIALLY AROUND THE
INNER CORE, WHICH COULD BE A SIGN OF A POSSIBLE FUTURE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95KT IS MAINLY
BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND ADT, BUT MIGHT STILL BE
SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S SMALL SIZE.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS
DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING
RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY
BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL
SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER
DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE
KEEP INTENSIFYING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY
IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. MOREOVER, AN ERC CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW WEAKENING FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. THIS
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL
RAPIDLY DECREASES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT VERY ACTIVE BAROCLINIC PROCESSES SHOULD
MAINTAIN IT ABOVE STORM FORCE INTENSITY WHILE IT TRACKS INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.

ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281218
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 28/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 74.8 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 45

60H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 30.8 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 240 SO: 295 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SO: 155 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2024 12 UTC: 43.2 S / 101.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 655 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 490
34 KT NE: 350 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 305
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 95

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
D'ANGGREK S'EST INTENSIFIEE, TEMPORAIREMENT ACCOMPAGNEE D'ACTIVITE
ELECTRIQUE DANS LE MUR DE L'OEIL. L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE EST
MONTEE ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.0. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT
UNE CONTRACTION DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LE COEUR D'ANGGREK EST EN EFFET
TRES COMPACT AVEC UN RVM ESTIME A 8MN. UN ANNEAU CONVECTIF
PERIPHERIQUE SEMBLE SE METTRE EN PLACE PARTIELLEMENT AUTOUR DE
L'ANNEAU INTERNE, CE QUI POURRAIT PRESAGER D'UN EVENTUEL FUTUR CYCLE
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC). L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 95KT
EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR L'ANALYSE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE ET L'ADT,
MAIS POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU SOUS-ESTIMEE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. DE PAR SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA DORSALE
A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT). IL POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER D'ICI LA NUIT
PROCHAINE OU LUNDI MATIN. UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT AUGMENTER D'ICI DEMAIN, MAIS LE DEPLACEMENT
RAPIDE D'ANGGREK DANS LA MEME DIRECTION DEVRAIT LIMITER LE RISQUE
D'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME AU MOINS POUR LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT
FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES D'INTENSITE. DE PLUS, LA SURVENUE
D'UN ERC N'EST PAS A EXCLURE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE LUNDI. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT
S'ACCELERER MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD PUIS DE NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE.
ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION MARDI/MERCREDI, MAIS
DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINES EFFICACES POURRAIENT LE MAINTENIR A UNE
INTENSITE TRES SIGNIFICATIVE JUSQU'AUX MOYENNES LATITUDES AVEC DES
VENTS RESTANT SUPERIEURS AU STADE DE LA TEMPETE.

ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 281207
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 74.8 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.6 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
25.1 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.3S 76.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 76.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.9S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.4S 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.5S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 32.3S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.7E.
28JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1075 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
280600Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 76.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND ANGGREK'S EYE HAS REMAINED
INTENSE, WHILE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL THAN LAST NIGHT AND
STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES
AVERAGED OVER 3 HOURS RISE TO 5.0 BUT MAY UNDERESTIMATE ACTUAL
INTENSITY DUE TO THE EYE'S SMALL SIZE. ASCAT PASSES AT 0343Z AND
0436Z ENABLE US TO UPDATE WIND EXTENSIONS, SHOWING A SLIGHT ASYMMETRY
IN THE WIND STRUCTURE WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
MEASURED UP TO 67KT, WHICH MATCHES WELL AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF
90KT GIVEN THE MEASUREMENT'S SATURATION.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS
DRIVEN BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE STEERING FLOWS, GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS MOVING
RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERWARD DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY
ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARDS, INITIALLY STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY
BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL
SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (UPPER
DIVERGENCE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL). IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP, BUT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, EFFECTS SHOULD BE
LIMITED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE PRECISE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD STILL REMAIN MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES SLOW
WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD THEN
ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEANIC POTENTIAL RAPIDLY
DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280622
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 28/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.3 S / 76.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEIZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 31.4 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 220 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION AUTOUR DE L'OEIL
D'ANGGREK EST RESTEE INTENSE EN DEVENANT PLUS SYMETRIQUE QUE LA NUIT
DERNIERE ET EN SE RENFORCANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. LES ANALYSES
DVORAK SUBJECTIVES MOYENNEES SUR 3 HEURES MONTENT A 5.0 MAIS
POURRAIENT SOUS-ESTIMER L'INTENSITE REELLE EN RAISON DE LA PETITE
TAILLE DE L'OEIL. LES PASSES ASCAT DE 0343Z ET 0436Z PERMETTENT DE
REACTUALISER LES EXTENSIONS DE VENTS, MONTRANT UNE LEGERE ASYMETRIE
DANS LA STRUCTURE VENTEUSE AVEC DES VENTS PLUS FORTS DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, MESURES JUSQU'A 67KT, CE QUI EST COMPATIBLE AVEC UNE
INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 90KT COMPTE TENU DE LA SATURATION DE LA MESURE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE. DE PAR SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST PILOTE
CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET PAR LA DORSALE
A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST, CISAILLEMENT PLUTOT FAIBLE,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT). IL POURRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER D'ICI
LA NUIT PROCHAINE OU LUNDI MATIN. UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE DANS LA JOURNEE, MAIS LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE RAPIDEMENT DANS LA MEME DIRECTION, LIMITANT DONC
L'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DE ANGGREK AU MOINS POUR LES
PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LA PETITE TAILLE DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT
FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES D'INTENSITE. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE FINE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN, MAIS
MAINTENANT LE SYSTEME A UN STADE MATURE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE
SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEVRAIT S'ACCELERER MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS DE NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION
MARDI/MERCREDI.

ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280606
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 76.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM TO THE EAST AND WEST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
21.6 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 06 UTC:
23.8 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 280018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 77.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SW: 250 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED BUT
REMAINED STABLE. CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INCREASED, HOWEVER,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT COMPARED WITH 18Z. MICROWAVE
IMAGES FROM GCOM 2024Z AND SSMIS F18 2215Z ALSO SHOW COMPACT DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE
BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5 WITH AN AVERAGE T OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS OF 4.5+. IN
LINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE, ANGGREK IS MAINTAINED AS
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 90KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN
BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARDS, INITIALLY PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE
ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW
VERY LITTLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEST
COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL).
IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
RAPIDLY IN THIS DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO THE HEART OF
ANGGREK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR SUDDEN
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE FINE-GRAINED INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL MATURE. THE
PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS. ON
THE OTHER HAND, THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND
OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN
EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 280018
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 28/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.0 S / 77.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 155 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SO: 155 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45

72H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 30.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 155 SO: 250 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2024 00 UTC: 33.4 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE ANGGREK
A SUBI DES FLUCTUATIONS MAIS S'EST MAINTENUE. LA CONVECTION A
CEPENDANT NETTEMENT AUGMENTE NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST PAR
RAPPORT A 18Z. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES GCOM DE 2024Z ET SSMIS F18 DE
2215Z MONTRENT AUSSI UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE COMPACTE TOUT AUTOUR DU
CENTRE. LES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DVORAK OSCILLENT ENTRE 4.5 ET 5 AVEC
UN T MOYENNE SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES A 4.5+. EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, ANGGREK EST MAINTENU AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 90KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST, CISAILLEMENT PLUTOT FAIBLE,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT). IL POURRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES. UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE DANS LA JOURNEE ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE RAPIDEMENT DANS CETTE DIRECTION LIMITANT
L'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DE ANGGREK. LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES
D'INTENSITE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE FINE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE
AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN, MAIS MAINTENANT LE SYSTEME A UN STADE MATURE.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT PAR CONTRE S'ACCELERER MARDI ET
MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS DE
NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK
DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION MARDI/MERCREDI.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 280011
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 28/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 28/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0 S / 77.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250NM TO THE EAST AND WEST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
20.9 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/29 AT 00 UTC:
22.7 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.4S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.7S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.7S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 26.2S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.9S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 33.7S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 78.6E.
27JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
846 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
271800Z IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SW: 315 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ANGGREK, STILL A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM, HAS
MAINTAINED ITS EYE PATTERN, BUT WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY WARMED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BEFORE
COOLING AGAIN JUST BEFORE 18Z. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES OSCILLATE
BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.5 WITH AN AVERAGE T OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS OF 4.5+.
IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW SATELLITE DATA AND IN LINE WITH AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES, ANGGREK IS MAINTAINED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 90KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE CYCLONE, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN
BY MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK IS EVOLVING RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARDS, INITIALLY PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE
ACTION OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
SCENARIO IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW
VERY LITTLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK IS STILL BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEST
COAST ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, FAIRLY LOW SHEAR, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL).
IT COULD THEREFORE INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THIS DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO
THE HEART OF ANGGREK. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO FAVOR
SUDDEN VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE FINE-GRAINED INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOW
MATURE. THE PRESENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW
ONWARDS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ACCELERATE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES. ANGGREK SHOULD
BEGIN EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON TUESDAY/ WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 27/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 79.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/S 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.8 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 32.7 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SO: 315 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 185

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ANGGREK, TOUJOURS SYSTEME COMPACT DE
PETITE TAILLE, A CONSERVE SA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL AVEC CEPENDANT DES
FLUCTUATIONS. LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS DES NUAGES S'EST
TEMPORAIREMENT RECHAUFFEE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST AVANT DE
REFROIDIR DE NOUVEAU JUSTE AVANT 18Z. LES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES
OSCILLENT ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.5 AVEC UN T MOYENNE SUR LES 3 DERNIERES
HEURES A 4.5+. EN ABSENCE DE NOUVELLES DONNEES SATELLITES ET EN
ACCORD AVEC DES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES, ANGGREK EST
MAINTENU AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC DES VENTS DE 90KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. ANGGREK EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE TOUJOURS DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST, CISAILLEMENT PLUTOT FAIBLE,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT). IL POURRAIT DONC S'INTENSIFIER DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLE
DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ALORS QUE LE
SYSTEME SE DEPLACE RAPIDEMENT DANS CETTE DIRECTION LIMITANT
L'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DE ANGGREK. LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES
D'INTENSITE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE FINE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE
DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, MAIS MAINTENANT LE SYSTEME A UN STADE MATURE. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT PAR CONTRE S'ACCELERER MARDI ET
MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS DE
NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK
DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION MARDI/MERCREDI.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271810
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 79.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
20.5 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 18 UTC:
21.8 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 271254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 80.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 220 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 175

120H: 2024/02/01 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 555 SW: 390 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, ANGGREK HAS ADOPTED A LASTING EYE PATTERN,
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 6. THE LAST 3 H
AVERAGE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 90KT. MICROWAVE DATA
CONFIRM THE FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE, BUT SUFFERING FROM A
SLIGHT WESTWARD TILT, CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE 0751Z AMSR2 PASS GIVES MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 100KT.
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (CIMSS ADT AND DMINT) REMAIN IN THE 80-85KT 10MIN
RANGE. ANGGREK'S INTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 90KT. ANGGREK
REMAINS A SMALL-SIZED SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY
MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE RAPIDLY IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARDS, LEADING THE SYSTEM TO BEND SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD INITIATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TURN, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. LATER NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD
ACCELERATE FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO IS WIDELY
SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS, WHICH SHOW VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

ANGGREK IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE, RATHER WEAK SHEAR,
SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL). ANGGREK COULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, AN
EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD DEVELOP WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION, LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO
ANGGREK'S CORE. THE SYSTEM SMALL SIZE MAY FAVOR SUDDEN INTENSITY
CHANGES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, AS NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND
OCEAN POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DECLINES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 271254
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 27/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 80.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.7 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 195 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 31.7 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SO: 220 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SO: 155 NO: 175

120H: 01/02/2024 12 UTC: 39.6 S / 97.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 555 SO: 390 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 345 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 240

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, ANGGREK A ADOPTE UNE CONFIGURATION
EN OEIL DURABLE AVEC DES ANALYSES DVORAK SUBJECTIVES OSCILLANT ENTRE
4.5 ET 6. LA MOYENNE DES ANALYSES SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES SUGGERE
UNE INTENSITE DE 90KT. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT LA
CONSTITUION D'UN OEIL BIEN DEFINI MAIS SOUFFRANT D'UN LEGER TILT VERS
L'OUEST, COHERENT AVEC UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT D'EST-NORD-EST. LA
PASSE AMSR2 DE 0751Z DONNE DES VENTS MAXIMUMS AUTOUR DE 100KT. LES
ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT ET DMINT DU CIMSS) RESTENT QUANT A ELLE
DANS UNE GAMME PROCHE DES 80-85KT 10MIN. L'INTENSITE D'ANGGREK EST
DONC REHAUSSEE A 90KT. ANGGREK RESTE UN SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALERA VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK, DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

ANGGREK BENEFICIE AUJOURD'HUI DE BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST, CISAILLEMENT PLUTOT FAIBLE,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE IMPORTANT). IL POURRAIT DONC CONTINUER A
S'INTENSIFIER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, UNE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLE DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-ESTDEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE
ALORS QUE LE SYTEME SE DEPLACERA RAPIDEMENT DANS CETTE DIRECTION
LIMITANT L'ADVECTION SECHE DANS LE COEUR DE ANGGREK. LA PETITE TAILLE
DU SYSTEME POURRAIT EGALEMENT FAVORISER DES VARIATIONS BRUTALES
D'INTENSITE. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DONC INCERTAINE DIMANCHE
ET LUNDI. LA PRESENTE PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT PAR CONTRE S'ACCELERER
MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS
DE NORD-OUEST ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK
DEVRAIT AMORCER SON EXTRATROPICALISATION MERCREDI.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 271232
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 80.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
20.1 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 12 UTC:
21.1 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270727
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 82.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 120

120H: 2024/02/01 06 UTC: 38.8 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SW: 455 NW: 565
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 0 SW: 305 NW: 305

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND ANGGREK'S CORE HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE
IN RECENT HOURS. AS SEEN IN THE LATEST LATE-NIGHT SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGES, AN EYE PATTERN REAPPEARED LATELY IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY BUT DID
NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED YET. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 4.5 TO 6.0, WITH A 3H AVERAGE CLOSE TO 5.0+. THIS
ESTIMATE AGREES WITH A CALIBRATED ASCAT ESTIMATE ( 0403Z METOP B)
GIVING 85KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THE 06Z ANALYSIS IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED
AT TROPICAL CYCLONE 85KT.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY
MID/HIGH TROPOSPHERE FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY
DIRECTION. FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS,
LEADING THE SYSTEM TO BEND SOUTHWARDS. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK
SHOULD INITIATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TURN, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE
TO THE EAST. LATER NEXT WEEK, THE METEOR SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ( UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE, DECREASING MID- TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL). ANGGREK SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL NEXT
NIGHT, AND ONCE AGAIN REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS, AN EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD
DEVELOP WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY IN THE SAME DIRECTION,
LIMITING DRY ADVECTION INTO ANGGREK'S CORE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
THEREFORE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THIS
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR STRENGTHENS AND OCEAN POTENTIAL
RAPIDLY DECLINES. ANGGREK SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALIZATION ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270727
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 27/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 82.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 165 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 24.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SO: 165 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 31.5 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SO: 155 NO: 120

120H: 01/02/2024 06 UTC: 38.8 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 350 SO: 455 NO: 565
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 0 SO: 305 NO: 305

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DU COEUR D'ANGGREK A ENCORE BEAUCOUP
FLUCTUE CES DERNIERES HEURES. A L'IMAGE DES DERNIERES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE FIN DE NUIT, UNE STRUCTURE EN OEIL EST REAPPARU
EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE EN FIN DE PERIODE MAIS NE SEMBLAIT PAS ENCORE
BIEN ETABLI. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES EVOLUENT ENTRE 4.5 ET
6.0 AVEC UNE MOYENNE SUR 3H PROCHE DE 5.0+. CETTE ESTIMATION EST EN
ACCORD AVEC UNE ESTIMATION ASCAT (METOP B DE 0403Z) CALIBRE DONNANT
85KT DE VENTS MAXIMAUX. L'ANALYSE DE 06Z EST DONC MAINTENUE AU STADE
DE CYCLONE TROPICAL 85KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE MOYENNE/HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALERA VERS
L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK, DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN VIRAGE EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE NORD-OUEST
PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST DU SYSTEME ET DE LA
DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LE METEORE DEVRAIT
ACCELERER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES, TRANSPORTE SUR LE
VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. CE SCENARIO EST
LARGEMENT SUPPORTE PAR LES SIMULATIONS NUMERIQUES QUI MONTRENT UNE
TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE AUJOURD'HUI DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE OUEST,
CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE EN BAISSE, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE
IMPORTANT). IL DEVRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER JUSQU'A LA NUIT
PROCHAINE ET ATTEINDRE A NOUVEAU LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, UNE CONTRAINTE CISAILLE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-ESTDEVRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE ALORS QUE LE SYTEME SE
DEPLACERA RAPIDEMENT DANS CETTE DIRECTION LIMITANT L'ADVECTION SECHE
DANS LE COEUR DE ANGGREK. LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE DONC
INCERTAINE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE. LA PRESENTE
PREVISION TABLE SUR UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN. CET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT PAR CONTRE S'ACCELERER MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC
LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD PUIS DE NORD-OUEST, LA BAISSE
RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. ANGGREK DEVRAIT AMORCER SON
EXTRATROPICALISATION MERCREDI.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.9S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.8S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.6S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.0S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.8S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.6S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 31.6S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 36.1S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 81.4E. 27JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
899 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 964 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270634
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 82.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
19.7 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 06 UTC:
20.6 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 270115
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 83.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT,
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75

120H: 2024/02/01 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

BETWEEN 2000UTC AND 2300UTC, THE CLOUD PATTERN ONCE AGAIN BECAME
ORGANIZED AROUND A CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES,
SHOWING A SLIGHT GAIN IN ORGANIZATION. OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS, THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED BENEATH THE MAIN CONVECTION,
ADOPTING A CURVED BAND PATTERN. THE 1939Z AMSR-2 PASS SHOWS A SOLID
INTERNAL STRUCTURE, WITH AN ERODED EYEWALL IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE BAND APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, PERHAPS SUGGESTING THE START
OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS POINTS
A DT OF 5.0+, IN LINE WITH THE ADJUSTED MET AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE AMERICAN DATA. ANGGREK'S ANALYZED INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE 85KT, TEMPORARILY DECLASSIFYING IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS DRIVEN BY
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST.
FROM MONDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
DIP FURTHER SOUTH AT FIRST. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ANGGREK SHOULD
START TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, UNDER THE ACTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DRIVEN JOINTLY BY A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE
METEOR IS SET TO SINK FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES, CARRIED
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WHICH ARE KEEPING IT AT A MATURE STAGE.
SHEAR AND ATTEMPTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE COUNTERBALANCED BY THE
SYSTEM'S SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY GRADUALLY UNTIL SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A CONTEXT WHERE THE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT WILL BE MUCH LOWER. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND THE WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES, PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A TROUGH
WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 270115
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 27/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.7 S / 83.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/S 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT,
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 215 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 95 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 27.8 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 360 SO: 280 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75

120H: 01/02/2024 00 UTC: 32.1 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

ENTRE 2000UTC ET 2300UTC, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST ORGANISEE
DE NOUVEAU AUTOUR D'UN OEIL BIEN VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITAIRES
IR,
MONTRANT AINSI UN LEGER GAIN EN ORGANISATION. SUR L'ANALYSE DES DEUX
DERNIERES HEURES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A DISPARU SOUS LA
CONVECTION PRINCIPALE, ADOPTANT AINSI PONCTUELLEMENT UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE. LA PASSE AMSR-2 DE 1939Z MONTRE UNE
STRUCTURE INTERNE SOLIDE, AVEC UN MUR DE L'OEIL ERRODE DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-EST. PAR AILLEUR, UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE SECONDAIRE SEMBLE
SE DEVELOPPER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, SUGGERANT PEUT ETRE L'AMORCE
D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK POINTE UN DT DE 5.0+, EN ADEQUATION AVEC LE MET AJUSTE ET LES
DERNIERES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES AMERICAINES. L'INTENSITE
ANALYSEE D'ANGGREK EST DONC DE 85KT, LE DECLASSANT TEMPORAIREMENT AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A LA FAVEUR D'UN LEGER GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE
DANS LES 24H, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT VERS
L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, LA DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD DANS
UN PREMIER TEMPS. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ANGGREK, DEVRAIT ENTAMER UN
VIRAGE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-SUD-EST, SOUS L'ACTION D'UN FLUX DE
NORD-OUEST EN ALTITUDE PILOTE CONJOINTEMENT PAR UN THALWEG A L'OUEST
DU SYSTEME ET DE LA DORSALE A L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE,
LE METEORE DEVRAIT S'ENFONCER DAVANTAGE VERS LES LATITUDES AUSTRALES,
TRANSPORTE SUR LE VERSANT EST D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT D'EXCELLENTES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES, QUI LE MAINTIENNENT A UN STADE MATURE.
EN EFFET LE CISAILLEMENT ET LES TENTATIVES D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC
SONT CONTREBALENCEES PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS LE SUD-OUEST.
IL DEVRAIT DONC CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT JUSQU'A
DIMANCHE. EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE
D'ALTITUDE SERA PLUS PRESENTE DANS UN CONTEXTE OU LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SERA NETTEMENT EN BAISSE. MARDI ET MERCREDI LES CONDITIONS
DEFAVORABLES S'ACCENTUENT ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCELERE,
NOTAMMENT SUR LE FLANC EST D'UN TALWEG OU IL PERDRA PROGRESSIVEMENT
SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 270023
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 27/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 27/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.7 S / 83.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT,
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/28 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.2S 84.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 84.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.1S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.4S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.3S 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.7S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 29.6S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 83.7E.
26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
954 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z
IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 44 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261903
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 84.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT,
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75

120H: 2024/01/31 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

SINCE 12Z, THE ANGGREK EYE PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY FADED, ALTHOUGH
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP WHILE MIGRATING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CONTRADICTORY SIGNS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS
NOT WEAKENING. UNFORTUNATELY, IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES, IT
IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE. THE
RCM-2 SAR AT 1240Z SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF THE ORDER OF 111 KT
(AVERAGED OVER ONE MINUTE), I.E. AN INTENSITY OF THE ORDER OF 95KT
(AVERAGED OVER 10 MINUTES). THE LAST EYE ANALYSES OF THE SYSTEM OVER
THE LAST 6 HOURS GAVE A DT OF 4.5+ (AVERAGED OVER 3H). THE DT IS IN
LINE WITH THE ADJUSTED MET. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THUS REMAINS
AT 90KT, CONFIRMED BY THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AVAILABLE.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED
BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 HOURS,
THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A
MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH THE
DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN
DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT
WHICH IT WILL MOVE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK BENEFITS FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, KEEPING IT AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN
FACT, THE SHEAR STRESS AND ATTEMPTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE
COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S DISPLACEMENT. IT SHOULD THEREFORE
REMAIN AT THIS STAGE, CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL SUNDAY.
THEN, ON MONDAY, IT WILL RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DUE TO
A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, BUT ALSO TO INCREASINGLY COOL SEA
SURFACE WATERS. THEREAFTER, THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AND THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING ACCELERATES. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL FROM WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261903
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.1 S / 84.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT,
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 71.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75

120H: 31/01/2024 18 UTC: 30.8 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

DEPUIS 12Z, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE ANGGREK S'EST PROGRESSIVEMENT
EFFACEE, AVEC TOUTEFOIS DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE SONT RECHAUFFES
TOUT EN MIGRANT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST DU SYSTEME. CES SIGNES
CONTRADICTOIRES INDIQUENT QUE LE SYSTEME N'EST PAS TRAIN DE
S'AFFAIBLIR. MALHEUREUSEMET EN L'ABSENCE DE PASSES MICRO-ONDES, IL
EST DIFFICILE DE PREJUGER DE L'EVOLUTION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE. LA
SAR RCM-2 DE 1240Z PROPOSE UNE INTENSITE DE L'ORDRE DE 111 KT
(MOYENNE SUR UNE MINUTE), SOIT UNE INTENSITE DE L'ORDRE DE 95KT
(MOYENNE SUR 10 MINUTES). LES DERNIERES ANALYSES EN OEIL DU SYSTEME
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES DONNAIENT UN DT DE 4.5+ (MOYENNE SUR
3H). LE DT EST CONFORME AU MET AJUSTE. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME RESTE
AINSI A 90KT, CONFORTE PAR LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A LA FAVEUR D'UN LEGER GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE
DANS LES 24H, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT VERS
L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU
SUD-OUEST. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE IL PRENDRAIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD
VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUD-EST ALORS QUE LA DORSALE CONTINUE DE SE DECALER
VERS L'EST. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT BIEN DEFINI, LA CONFIANCE EST
RELATIVEMENT BONNE EN DIRECTION BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SOIT PLUS MARQUEE.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, QUI LE MAINTIENNENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. EN EFFET LA CONTRAINTE DE CISAILLEMENT ET LES TENTATIVES
D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SONT CONTREBALENCEES PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME. IL DEVRAIT DONC GARDER CE STADE EN CONTINUANT A
S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. PUIS IL RETOURNERAIT AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL LUNDI EN RAISON D'UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE MAIS AUSSI EN RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE LA MER
DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES. PAR LA SUITE CES CONDITIONS DEFAVORABLES
S'ACCENTUENT ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCELERE. IL
DEVIENDRAIT POSTROPICAL A COMPTER DE MERCREDI

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261821
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 84.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 155 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
18.7 S / 81.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT,
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 79.0 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 261242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 85.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/01/31 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS SLIGHTLY ALTERED,
MAKING THE CENTER MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON IR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND WELL
ORGANIZED AROUND THE EYE, AND CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STILL MATERIALIZING
ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF THE EYE OVER A 6-HOUR
PERIOD SHOWS THAT THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH WIND VALUES
ESTIMATED AT 90KT, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SYSTEM'S INERTIA.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AGREE WITH THIS INTENSITY, WHICH IS THEREFORE
RETAINED.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED
BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY WITHIN 24 HOURS,
THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER
SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A
MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, WHILE THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH THE
DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN
DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT
WHICH IT WILL MOVE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK BENEFITS FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, KEEPING IT AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. IN
FACT, THE SHEAR STRESS AND ATTEMPTED INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ARE
COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S DISPLACEMENT. IT SHOULD THEREFORE
REMAIN AT THIS STAGE, CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY UNTIL SUNDAY.
THEN, ON MONDAY, IT WILL RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DUE TO
A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, BUT ALSO TO INCREASINGLY COOL SEA
SURFACE WATERS. THEREAFTER, THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED AND THE SYSTEM'S WEAKENING ACCELERATES. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL FROM WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 261242
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 85.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT CINQ DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1012 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

72H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 155 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 31/01/2024 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 215 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
LEGEREMENT DETERIOREE RENDANT LE CENTRE PLUS DIFICILE A DETECTER SUR
LES IMAGES SATELLITES IR ET VISIBLES. CEPENDANT LA CONVECTION EST
TOUJOURS PRESENTE ET BIEN ORGANISEE AUTOUR DE L'OEIL ET ON REMARQUE
ENCORE UNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE MATERIALISEE PAR LES CIRRUS.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL SUR UNE PERIODE DE 6H PERMET DE NOTER UN
MAINTIENT DE L'INTENSITE AVEC DES VALEURS DE VENTS ESTIMEES A 90KT EN
TENANT COMPTE DE L'INERTIE DU SYSTEME. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT
EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE INTENSITE QUI EST DONC RETENUE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A LA FAVEUR D'UN LEGER GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE
DANS LES 24H, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT VERS
L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU
SUD-OUEST. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE IL PRENDRAIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD
VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUD-EST ALORS QUE LA DORSALE CONTINUE DE SE DECALER
VERS L'EST. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT BIEN DEFINI, LA CONFIANCE EST
RELATIVEMENT BONNE EN DIRECTION BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SOIT PLUS MARQUEE.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, QUI LE MAINTIENNENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. EN EFFET LA CONTRAINTE DE CISAILLEMENT ET LES TENTATIVES
D'INTRUSIONS D'AIR SEC SONT CONTREBALENCEES PAR LE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME. IL DEVRAIT DONC GARDER CE STADE EN CONTINUANT A
S'INTENSIFIER LENTEMENT JUSQU'A DIMANCHE. PUIS IL RETOURNERAIT AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL LUNDI EN RAISON D'UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE MAIS AUSSI EN RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE LA MER
DE PLUS EN PLUS FRAICHES. PAR LA SUITE CES CONDITIONS DEFAVORABLES
S'ACCENTUENT ET L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME S'ACCELERE. IL
DEVIENDRAIT POSTROPICAL A COMPTER DE MERCREDI

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 261215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 85.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
18.5 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.9S 86.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 86.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.9S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.9S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.6S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 28.8S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 86.0E.
26JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1009 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20232024
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 86.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/29 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/30 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2024/01/31 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AND
THE CENTER HAS BECOME CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE. THE
11:41 PM SAR ALLOWED US TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THE WINDS AND THE
MAXIMUM WIND RADIUS, WHICH IS 13NM. THE COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE FROM
THE METOP C POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE AT 03:34 CONFIRMS THIS VALUE. IT
ALSO GIVES A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION, WHOSE
ORGANIZATION AROUND THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE IR AND HRV SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A FINE DIVERGENCE IN
ALTITUDE. THE DVORAK EYE ANALYSIS OVER A 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS AN
INTENSIFICATION, WITH WIND VALUES ESTIMATED AT 90KT. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS INTENSITY, CONFIRMING ANGGREK'S
TRANSITION TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS STEERED
BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM
FURTHER SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY,
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARDS. WITH
THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED, CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN
DIRECTION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT
WHICH IT WILL MOVE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH HAVE ENABLED IT TO UPGRADE TO AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THIS STAGE UNTIL
SATURDAY. IT WILL THEN RETURN TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON SUNDAY
DUE TO A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE EFFICIENCY OF WHICH IS
COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT
WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING,
DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A
PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING
CROSS-CUTTING.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260713
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 86.4 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 185 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 29/01/2024 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 165 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2024 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 31/01/2024 06 UTC: 28.7 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE ET LE CENTRE EST DEVENU BIEN VISIBLE SUR L'IMAGE SATELLITE
IR. LA SAR DE 23H41 A PERMIS DE DETERMINER L'EXTENSION DES VENTS ET
LE RAYON DE VENT MAXIMAL QUI EST DE 13NM. L'IMAGE EN COMPOSITION
COLOREE DU SATELLITE DEFILANT METOP C DE 03H34 NOUS PERMET DE
CONFIRMER CETTE VALEUR. ELLE PERMET EGALEMENT DE DONNER UNE BONNE
ESTIMATION DE L'ETENDUE DE LA CONVECTION DONT L'ORGANISATION AUTOUR
DU CENTRE S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DES 24 DERNIERES HEURES. ON
REMARQUE AUSSI SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITE IR ET HRV UNE BELLE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL SUR UNE PERIODE DE 6H
PERMET DE NOTER UNE INTENSIFICATION AVEC DES VALEURS DE VENTS ESTIMES
A 90KT. LES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES SONT EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE INTENSITE,
ET CONFIRMENT DONC LE PASSAGE D'ANGGREK AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PILOTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A LA FAVEUR D'UN LEGER GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A
ECHEANCE DE 24-36H, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT
VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU
SUD-OUEST. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE IL PRENDRAIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD
VOIRE LEGEREMENT SUD-EST ALORS QUE LA DORSALE CONTINUE DE SE DECALER
VERS L'EST. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT BIEN DEFINI, LA CONFIANCE EST
RELATIVEMENT BONNE EN DIRECTION BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SOIT PLUS MARQUEE.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, CE QUI LUI A PERMIS DE S'ELEVER AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CE MATIN. IL DEVRAIT GARDER CE STADE JUSQU'A
SAMEDI. PUIS IL RETOURNERAIT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL DIMANCHE EN
RAISON D'UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE DONT L'EFFICACITE
EST CONTREBALANCEE PAR LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE PLUS
OU MOINS RAPIDE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE
MOINS EN MOINS ENERGETIQUES ET SURTOUT EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE FORT PERSISTANT, DEVENANT GRADUELLEMENT TRAVERSANT.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260610
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 86.4 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
18.1 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
18.8 S / 81.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 25 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 260027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 87.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2024/01/29 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/30 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75

120H: 2024/01/31 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED SLIGHTLY,
TAKING ON A CLEARER STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE DVORAK EYE
ANALYSIS OVER AN AVERAGE 6-HOUR PERIOD SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION OF
ANGGREK WITH ESTIMATED WIND VALUES OF 85KT. THESE VALUES ARE BROADLY
CONFIRMED BY SAR SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS FROM 1232UTC. ANGGREK
REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED
BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING
THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED,
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTOIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT
BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO
INTERNAL MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). DURING THESE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES, ANGGREK COULD SHOW A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR, WHICH COULD PENETRATE
FURTHER INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE CURRENT RSMC FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO
REFLECT THESE FLUCTUATIONS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WITHOUT TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO STRUCTURAL
CHANGES, EARLY NEXT WEEK ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID
PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS
AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY
BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 260027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.4 S / 87.6 E
(SEIZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

72H: 29/01/2024 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 195 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 30/01/2024 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75

120H: 31/01/2024 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 150

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A
LEGEREMENT FLUCTUE POUR REPRENDRE UNE STRUCTURE PLUS NETTE SUR LES
DERNIERES HEURES. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN OEIL SUR UNE PERIODE MOYENNEE
DE 6H PERMET DE NOTER UNE INTENSIFICATION DE ANGGREK AVEC DES VALEURS
DE VENTS ESTIMES A 85KT. CES VALEURS SONT GLOBALEMENT CONFIRMEES PAR
LES MESURES DU DIFFUSIOMETRES SAR DE 1232UTC. ANGGREK RESTE ENCORE AU
SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PORTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDES PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A LA FAVEUR D'UN LEGER GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A
ECHEANCE DE 36-48H, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT
VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU
SUD-OUEST. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT BIEN DEFINI, LA CONFIANCE EST
RELATIVEMENT BONNE EN DIRECTION BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SOIT PLUS MARQUEE.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, CE QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. IL DEVRAIT GARDER UNE FORTE
INTENSITE JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE MALGRE UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE DONT L'EFFICACITE EST CONTREBALANCEE PAR LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. CEPENDANT LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE DIFFICILE COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME, QUI POURRAIT FLUCTUER EN RAISON DE MECANISMES INTERNES
(CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE LA OEIL). LORS DE CES CHANGEMENTS
DE STRUCTURE, ANGGREK POURRAIT PRESENTER UN AFFAIBLISSMENT NOTABLE
D'INTENSITE DU FAIT DE L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI POURRAIT PENETRER
PLUS DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. L'ACTUELLE PREVISION DU CMRS TENTE DE
TRADUIRE CES FLUCTUATIONS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48 HEURES. SANS
PRENDRE EN COMPTE CES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE POUR DES RAISONS DE
CHANGEMENT DE STRUCTURE, EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, ANGGREK
DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN
RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE MOINS EN MOINS ENERGETIQUES ET SURTOUT EN
RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE FORT PERSISTANT, DEVENANT
GRADUELLEMENT TRAVERSANT.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 260014
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2024
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 26/01/2024 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 87.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 70 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 88.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 88.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1S 86.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2S 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.6S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.7S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.9S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.2S 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 87.9E.
25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1064 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
251800Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS
32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 88.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/26 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2024/01/27 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/27 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/28 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/28 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/29 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2024/01/30 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED. COOLER
CONVECTION MORE CLEARLY SURROUNDS THE EMERGING EYE. THIS IS A SIGN OF
INTENSIFICATION FOR ANGGREK, CONFIRMED BY THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF
DVORAK ANALYSIS. AN EYE ANALYSIS GIVES A 6-HOUR T OF 5.0, I.E.
ESTIMATED WINDS OF AROUND 80KT. OVER A SHORTER PERIOD, THE VALUE
COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL IN SIZE, AND WE
SHALL HAVE TO KEEP AN ATTENTIVE LOOK AT THE EVOLUTION OF ITS
STRUCTURE TO DETECT ANY REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

NO CHANGE IN TRACK FORECAST. AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED
BY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. AS THE RIDGE SWELLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS, THE TRACK SHOULD STRAIGHTEN OUT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARDS, PUSHING
THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WITH THE DIRECTING FLOW WELL DEFINED,
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY GOOD IN DIRECTOIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED AT WHICH IT WILL MOVE.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STRESS, THE
EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, FORECASTING INTENSITY IS MADE DIFFICULT
BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE DUE TO
INTERNAL MECHANISMS (EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE). DURING THESE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES, ANGGREK COULD SHOW A NOTICEABLE WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY DUE TO THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR, WHICH COULD PENETRATE
FURTHER INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THESE
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO STRUCTURAL CHANGES, EARLY NEXT WEEK
ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO
LESS AND LESS ENERGETIC SURFACE WATERS AND, ABOVE ALL, TO A
PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING
CROSS-CUTTING.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251838
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.1 S / 88.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 86.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 26/01/2024 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 27/01/2024 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 27/01/2024 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 28/01/2024 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 28/01/2024 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SO: 195 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2024 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 30/01/2024 18 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
AMELIOREE. LA CONVECTION PLUS FROIDE ENTOURE PLUS NETTEMENT L'OEIL
QUI SE DEGAGE. C'EST UN SIGNE D'INTENSIFICATION POUR ANGGREK QUE
CONFIRMENT LES DIFFERENTES SOURCES D'ANALYSES DVORAK. UNE ANALYSE EN
OEIL PERMET DE DEFINIR SUR 6 HEURES UN T DE 5.0 SOIT DES VENTS
ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 80KT. SUR UNE PERIODE PLUS COURTE, LA VALEUR
POURRAIT ETRE UN PEU PLUS ELEVEE. LE SYSTEME RESTE DE PETITE TAILLE
ET IL FAUDRA SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE SA STRUCTURE POUR DETECTER
D'EVENTUELS CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 36H.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS LA PREVISION TRAJECTOIRE. DE PART SON STADE
MATURE, ANGGREK EST PORTE PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE
TROPOSPHERE, GUIDES PAR UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU
SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A LA FAVEUR D'UN LEGER GONFLEMENT DE LA DORSALE A
ECHEANCE DE 36-48H, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER LEGEREMENT
VERS L'OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN
DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU
SUD-OUEST. LE FLUX DIRECTEUR ETANT BIEN DEFINI, LA CONFIANCE EST
RELATIVEMENT BONNE EN DIRECTOIN BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA VITESSE
DE DEPLACEMENT SOIT PLUS MARQUEE.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES, CE QUI DEVRAIT L'AMENER AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. IL DEVRAIT GARDER UNE FORTE
INTENSITE JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE MALGRE UNE LEGERE CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE DONT L'EFFICACITE EST CONTREBALANCEE PAR LE
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. CEPENDANT LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE DIFFICILE COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME, QUI POURRAIT FLUCTUER EN RAISON DE MECANISMES INTERNES
(CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE LA OEIL). LORS DE CES CHANGEMENTS
DE STRUCTURE, ANGGREK POURRAIT PRESENTER UN AFFAIBLISSMENT NOTABLE
D'INTENSITE DU FAIT DE L'AIR SEC ENVIRONNANT QUI POURRAIT PENETRER
PLUS DANS LE COEUR DU SYSTEME. SANS PRENDRE EN COMPTE CES
FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE POUR DES RAISONS DE CHANGEMENT DE STRUCTURE,
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE PLUS
OU MOINS RAPIDE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE
MOINS EN MOINS ENERGETIQUES ET SURTOUT EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT
D'ALTITUDE FORT PERSISTANT, DEVENANT GRADUELLEMENT TRAVERSANT.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRESENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES
HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251812
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2024
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/01/2024 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 88.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
17.0 S / 86.3 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
18.0 S / 84.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 251427 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20232024
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION 2024/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 70 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/01/26 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2024/01/26 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2024/01/27 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2024/01/27 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2024/01/28 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2024/01/28 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/01/29 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2024/01/30 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ANGGREK, MONITORED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BY THE
AUSTRALIAN WEATHER SERVICE, ENTERED OUR BASIN TODAY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHORTLY AFTER 08 UTC, AND SHOWED AN EYE PATTERN THAT HAS
GRADUALLY WEAKENED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE SSMIS F18 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 0949Z AND THE 0803Z AMSR2 SHOW A PARTICULARLY ROBUST
89GHZ CENTRAL CORE. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE THE NETWORK, A HOT
SPOT SEEMS TO BE BUILDING UP AGAIN, AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IN
EYE PATTERN MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
BASED ON THE ADJUSTED MET POINTING TO A PT OF 4 WITH A CI OF 4.5.
THIS ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM
CIMSS (AIDT/ADT), PROVIDING A CI AROUND 4.5+.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, AS A MATURE SYSTEM, ANGGREK IS CARRIED BY HIGH
TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANGGREK WILL THUS EVOLVE IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. FROM SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT
EASTWARDS, PUSHING THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH-WEST.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK IS EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, WHICH SHOULD BRING IT TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. ANGGREK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY INTENSE UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK, AND MAY EVEN REACH THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY, DESPITE A SLIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR,
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF WHICH IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE SYSTEM'S RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANGGREK SHOULD ENTER A MORE OR
LESS RAPID PHASE OF WEAKENING, DUE TO LESS AND LESS OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT AND ABOVE ALL TO PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SHEAR, GRADUALLY BECOMING CROSS-CUTTING. FORECASTING INTENSITY IS
MADE DIFFICULT BY THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH COULD FLUCTUATE
DUE TO INTERNAL MECHANISMS (NOTABLY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE).

TROPICAL CYCLONE ANGGREK POSES NO THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 251427 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/4/20232024
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (ANGGREK)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2024 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 89.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 70 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 26/01/2024 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 87.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 26/01/2024 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 27/01/2024 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 27/01/2024 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 28/01/2024 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SO: 220 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 130 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

72H: 28/01/2024 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SO: 240 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 29/01/2024 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 30/01/2024 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 400 SO: 335 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 240 SO: 215 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
ANGGREK

T=4.0 CI=4.5

LE SYSTEME TROPICAL ANGGREK, SUIVI CES DERNIERS JOURS PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE AUSTRALIEN, EST ENTRA DANS NOTRE BASSIN AUJOURD'HUI
AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL, PEU APRES 08 UTC, ET PRA SENTAIT UNE
CONFIGURATION EN A IL QUI S'EST PEU A PEU DA LITA E DEPUIS CES
DERNIERES HEURES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE SSMIS F18 DE 0949Z AINSI QUE
L'AMSR2 DE 0803Z PRA SENTENT UN CA UR CENTRAL EN 89GHZ PARTICULIA
REMENT ROBUSTE. SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES AVANT LE RESEAU, UN POINT
CHAUD SEMBLE SE RECONSTITUER ET L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EN
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL POURRAIT ALORS ETRE A NOUVEAU POSSIBLE.
L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LE MET AJUSTE POINTANT UN
PT DE 4 AVEC UN CI DE 4.5. CETTE ANALYSE EST SUPPORTEE PAR LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES OBJECTIVES DU CIMSS (AIDT/ADT), PROPOSANT UN CI
AUTOUR DE 4.5+.

EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE, DE PART SON STADE MATURE, ANGGREK EST PORTE
PAR DES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE HAUTE TROPOSPHERE, GUIDES PAR UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD DU SYSTEME. AINSI ANGGREK EVOLUERA EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA
DORSALE ACCUSERA UN RETRAIT EN DIRECTION DE L'EST, FAISANT PLONGER LE
SYSTEME DAVANTAGE AU SUD-OUEST.

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK BENEFICIE D'EXCELLENTES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES,CE QUI DEVRAIT L'AMMENER AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE EN JOURNA E DE DEMAIN. IL DEVRAIT GARDER UNE BELLE
INTENSITE JUSQU'EN FIN DE SEMAINE, VOIRE ATTEINDRE PONCTUELLEMENT LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE DIMANCHE, MALGRE UNE LEGERE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE D'ALTITUDE DONT L'EFFICACITE EST CONTREBALANCEE
PAR LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, ANGGREK DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE PHASE PLUS OU MOINS
RAPIDE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, EN RAISON D'EAUX DE SURFACE DE MOINS EN
MOINS ENERGETIQUES ET SURTOUT EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE
FORT PERSISTANT, DEVENANT GRADUELLEMENT TRAVERSANT. LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE EST RENDUE DIFFICILE COMPTE TENU DE LA PETITE TAILLE DU
SYSTEME, QUI POURRAIT FLUCTUER EN RAISON DE MECANISMES INTERNES
(CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE LA A IL, NOTAMMENT).

LE CYCLONE TROPICAL ANGGREK NE PRA SENTE PAS DE MENACE POUR LES
TERRES HABITEES.=

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 251228
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2024
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/4 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 25/01/2024 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (ANGGREK) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 89.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 75
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 65 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2024/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
17.5 S / 85.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.1S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.8S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.1S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.9S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.0S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 89.6E.
25JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1130 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (CANDICE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 250658
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:15S090E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0658 UTC 25 JANUARY 2024

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 15 nautical
miles of
latitude fifteen decimal one south (15.1S)
longitude ninety decimal one east (90.1E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 75 knots
Central pressure: 974 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre increasing to 95 knots by 0600 UTC 26
January.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 25 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 16.1 south 88.5 east
Central pressure 967 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 26 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 17.1 south 86.5 east
Central pressure 958 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by Mauritius Meteorological Service.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 250059
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:15S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0059 UTC 25 JANUARY 2024

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical
miles of
latitude fourteen decimal nine south (14.9S)
longitude ninety decimal seven east (90.7E)
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 970 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 0000 UTC 26
January.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 25 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 15.7 south 89.6 east
Central pressure 966 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 26 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.7 south 87.7 east
Central pressure 962 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 25 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 91.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 91.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.0S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.9S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.4S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.9S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.6S 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 90.9E.
24JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1180 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
241800Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 241850
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:14S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1850 UTC 24 JANUARY 2024

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 15 nautical
miles of
latitude fourteen decimal two south (14.2S)
longitude ninety one decimal one east (91.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 80 knots
Central pressure: 968 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 80 knots near the centre increasing to 90 knots by 1800 UTC 25
January.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 25 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 14.7 south 90.2 east
Central pressure 965 hPa.
Winds to 85 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 25 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 15.6 south 88.7 east
Central pressure 962 hPa.
Winds to 90 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 25 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 241246
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:14S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1246 UTC 24 JANUARY 2024

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 15 nautical
miles of
latitude fourteen decimal one south (14.1S)
longitude ninety one decimal zero east (91.0E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 65 knots
Central pressure: 980 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 1200 UTC 25
January.

Winds above 64 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 25 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 14.6 south 90.6 east
Central pressure 969 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 25 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.3 south 89.6 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 24 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 91.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 91.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.5S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.9S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.0S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.1S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.4S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.6S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 91.0E. 24JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1174 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 987 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 240715
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:14S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0715 UTC 24 JANUARY 2024

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal zero south (14.0S)
longitude ninety one decimal one east (91.1E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 55 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 55 knots near the centre increasing to 80 knots by 0600 UTC 25
January.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre by 1200 UTC 24 January
with very high seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 24 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 14.4 south 90.9 east
Central pressure 977 hPa.
Winds to 75 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 25 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.0 south 90.2 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 80 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 24 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 240052
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:14S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0052 UTC 24 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal nine south (13.9S)
longitude ninety one decimal two east (91.2E)
Recent movement : southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 0000 UTC 25
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre by 0600 UTC 24 January
with with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 24 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.4 south 90.8 east
Central pressure 990 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 25 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.8 south 90.4 east
Central pressure 983 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 24 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 91.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.9S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.3S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.0S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.0S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.9S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.4S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.7S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 91.5E.
23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 231856
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:14S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1856 UTC 23 JANUARY 2024

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude ninety one decimal three east (91.3E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 1800 UTC 24
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 24 January
with with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 64 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 24 January
with high to very high seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 24 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 14.1 south 91.1 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 24 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.5 south 90.8 east
Central pressure 981 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 24 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 231318
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:14S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1318 UTC 23 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal five south (13.5S)
longitude ninety one decimal four east (91.4E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre increasing to 60 knots by 1200 UTC 24
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 1800 UTC 23 January
with with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 24 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 13.9 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 24 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 14.3 south 91.1 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 23 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 91.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 91.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.5S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.5S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.2S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.5S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 91.6E.
23JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1182 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
230600Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 230658
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:13S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0658 UTC 23 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal zero south (13.0S)
longitude ninety one decimal six east (91.6E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 0600 UTC 24
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 24 January
with with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 23 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 13.5 south 91.4 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 24 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.9 south 91.0 east
Central pressure 989 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 23 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 230109
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:13S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0109 UTC 23 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal eight south (12.8S)
longitude ninety one decimal five east (91.5E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 1001 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0000 UTC 24
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 24 January
with with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 23 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 13.3 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 24 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.7 south 91.0 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 23 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 91.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 91.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.4S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.9S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.3S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.8S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.7S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 91.3E.
22JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1164 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 221800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 221851
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:13S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1851 UTC 22 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal six south (12.6S)
longitude ninety one decimal three east (91.3E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 1001 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 1800 UTC 23
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with with very rough
seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 23 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 13.0 south 90.9 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 23 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 13.3 south 90.5 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 23 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 221300
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S091E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1300 UTC 22 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal two south (12.2S)
longitude ninety one decimal four east (91.4E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 999 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 23
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre from 0600 UTC 23
January with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 23 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.5 south 91.0 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 23 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.9 south 90.6 east
Central pressure 987 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 22 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 91.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 91.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.6S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.4S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.4S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.2S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 91.4E.
22JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
315NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 220600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 220625
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0625 UTC 22 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal one south (12.1S)
longitude ninety one decimal five east (91.5E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 999 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 50 knots by 0600 UTC 23
January.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 22 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 12.3 south 91.1 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 23 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.6 south 90.6 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 22 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 220033
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0033 UTC 22 JANUARY 2024

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal zero south (12.0S)
longitude ninety one decimal six east (91.6E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 999 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 23
January.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.2 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 23 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.4 south 90.8 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 22 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 91.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 91.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.7S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.4S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.0S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.2S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.6S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 91.7E.
21JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
299 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
211800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 211852
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1852 UTC 21 JANUARY 2024

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal one south (12.1S)
longitude ninety one decimal seven east (91.7E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.2 south 91.3 east
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 22 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.4 south 90.7 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 22 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 211254
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1254 UTC 21 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal one south (12.1S)
longitude ninety one decimal nine east (91.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 1200 UTC 22
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 22 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.2 south 91.4 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 22 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.4 south 90.9 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 21 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 92.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 92.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.0S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.1S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.6S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5S 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.6S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 92.1E.
21JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
175NM EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 210652
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0652 UTC 21 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal one south (12.1S)
longitude ninety two decimal two east (92.2E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 989 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 45 knots by 1800 UTC 21
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SE quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 21 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.0 south 91.7 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 22 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.1 south 91.4 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 21 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 210056
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0056 UTC 21 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal one south (12.1S)
longitude ninety two decimal three east (92.3E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 45 knots by 0600 UTC 21
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and moderate
swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 21 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.0 south 91.9 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 22 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.0 south 91.5 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 21 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 12.0S 92.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 92.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 11.8S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.8S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.8S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.9S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.2S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.9S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 92.5E.
20JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
253 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 201800Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 201852
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1852 UTC 20 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal two south (12.2S)
longitude ninety two decimal three east (92.3E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 40 knots by 0600 UTC 21
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre in the NE and NW
quadrants and within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the SW quadrant with
very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 50 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 21 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.0 south 91.8 east
Central pressure 997 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 21 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.9 south 91.4 east
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 21 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 201256
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S092E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1256 UTC 20 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal three south (12.3S)
longitude ninety two decimal five east (92.5E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 990 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 45 knots by 0000 UTC 21
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre in the NE and NW
quadrants and within 30 nautical miles of the centre in the SW quadrant with
very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 21 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.1 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 21 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.9 south 91.6 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 20 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 92.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 92.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.3S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.1S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.0S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.0S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.2S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 12.7S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.3S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 92.6E.
20JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
250NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS
988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 200701
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0701 UTC 20 JANUARY 2024

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal three south (12.3S)
longitude ninety two decimal six east (92.6E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 992 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre easing to 45 knots by 1800 UTC 20
January.

Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas
and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 20 January: Within 40 nautical miles of 12.0 south 92.3 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 21 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.7 south 92.0 east
Central pressure 996 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 20 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 200101
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0101 UTC 20 JANUARY 2024

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 15 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal four south (12.4S)
longitude ninety two decimal seven east (92.7E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 20 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 12.3 south 92.4 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 21 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 11.9 south 92.1 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 20 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 92.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 92.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.6S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.5S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.3S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.1S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.8S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.7S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.7S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 92.3E.
19JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
263 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 191800Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 191849
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:12S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1849 UTC 19 JANUARY 2024

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal five south (12.5S)
longitude ninety two decimal six east (92.6E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 70 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough to very rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 20 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 12.5 south 92.2 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 20 January: Within 50 nautical miles of 12.2 south 91.9 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 20 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTAU06 APRF 191257
IDW23200

40:2:2:24:13S093E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1257 UTC 19 JANUARY 2024

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anggrek was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude twelve decimal six south (12.6S)
longitude ninety two decimal eight east (92.8E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 45 knots
Central pressure: 993 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 70 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre.

Winds above 34 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 20 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 12.6 south 92.5 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 20 January: Within 55 nautical miles of 12.5 south 92.1 east
Central pressure 993 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 19 January 2024.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 92.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 92.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.6S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.6S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.5S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.3S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.0S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.7S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 92.8E.
19JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
232 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL)
FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.2S 93.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 93.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.7S 92.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.9S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.9S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.8S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.5S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.2S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.9S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 93.1E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1261 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190900Z AND 192100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 11.5S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.3S 93.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.8S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.0S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.0S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.8S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.5S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.2S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 93.7E.
18JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 997 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 10.6S 94.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 94.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.4S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.0S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.5S 93.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.8S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.8S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.7S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.5S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 93.9E. 17JAN24.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
10105 NM NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171800Z IS 996 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 10.1S 94.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1S 94.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.9S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.6S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.2S 93.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.7S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.1S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.9S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 94.0E.
17JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
200 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 9.5S 94.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 94.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.0S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.8S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.7S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.5S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.1S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.2S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.2S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 94.3E.
16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315
NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
161800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.4S 93.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.4S 93.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.6S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.1S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.9S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.8S 94.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.8S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 93.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.1S 92.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 93.9E.
16JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (ANGGREK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
247 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 9.5S 93.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 93.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.5S 94.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.6S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.1S 94.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 10.9S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.8S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.9S 94.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.4S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 9.5S 94.0E.
15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05S (BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 9.5S 93.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 93.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.2S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.2S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 9.4S 94.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 10.0S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 11.3S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.2S 95.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.8S 94.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 9.4S 93.8E.
15JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 1001
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(BELAL) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 141400).//
NNNN

Global Telecommunication Service

Measurements Levels