Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GUCHOL-23
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME LOW FROM 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121800UTC 32.0N 141.8E
MOVEMENT NE 31KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 32N 142E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST =

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 30.9N 140.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 33.5N 144.9E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 131500UTC 35.4N 150.1E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 121200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 121200UTC 30.4N 139.4E
MOVEMENT NE 22KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 130000UTC 32.9N 143.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 131200UTC 35.0N 148.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 139.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 30.5N 139.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 33.1N 143.7E 25NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 131200UTC 34.9N 148.7E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 990 HPA
AT 30.5N 139.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 33.1N 143.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 34.9N 148.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 29.8N 138.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 32.5N 142.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130900UTC 34.5N 147.5E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230612071401
2023061206 03W GUCHOL 026 01 045 20 SATL SYNP 030
T000 295N 1383E 045 R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 321N 1421E 040 R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 344N 1468E 035 R034 010 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 363N 1521E 030
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 29.5N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.4N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 36.3N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 139.3E.
12JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT 03W IS BEING DECAPITATED BY THE JET
STREAM IT IS INTERACTING WITH. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY BEING
SWEPT OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND FALLING SSTS WHICH WILL ALL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM STEADILY THROUGH TIME. THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
FORCING OF THE PASSING JET WILL PROGRESS 03W THROUGH
SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, AND INITIATE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS,
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 40 FEET.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061112 256N1337E 70
0323061112 256N1337E 70
0323061112 256N1337E 70
0323061118 269N1349E 60
0323061118 269N1349E 60
0323061200 281N1367E 55
0323061200 281N1367E 55
0323061206 295N1383E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 29.5N 138.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.5N 138.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.4N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 36.3N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 139.3E.
12JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 251
NM NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT 03W IS BEING DECAPITATED BY THE JET
STREAM IT IS INTERACTING WITH. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY BEING
SWEPT OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING THE LLCC MOSTLY EXPOSED. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS RAPID PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND FALLING SSTS WHICH WILL ALL SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM STEADILY THROUGH TIME. THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
FORCING OF THE PASSING JET WILL PROGRESS 03W THROUGH
SUB-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12, AND INITIATE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS,
RESULTING IN AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 989 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 40 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120600UTC 29.1N 137.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 16KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121800UTC 31.9N 141.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 130600UTC 34.3N 146.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 29.4N 138.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 31.8N 141.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130600UTC 34.1N 146.2E 42NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 29.4N 138.0E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 31.8N 141.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 34.1N 146.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 120300
WARNING 120300.
WARNING VALID 130300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 985 HPA
AT 28.5N 137.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 31.2N 140.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 33.7N 145.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 120300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230612010506
2023061200 03W GUCHOL 025 01 055 20 SATL 060
T000 281N 1367E 050 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 306N 1403E 045 R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 332N 1448E 040 R034 040 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 355N 1503E 035 R034 010 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 378N 1562E 035 R034 000 NE QD 140 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 28.1N 136.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 136.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 33.2N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 35.5N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 37.8N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 137.6E.
12JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061200Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061112 256N1337E 70
0323061112 256N1337E 70
0323061112 256N1337E 70
0323061118 269N1349E 60
0323061118 269N1349E 60
0323061200 281N1367E 50
0323061200 281N1367E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 28.1N 136.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 136.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 33.2N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 35.5N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 37.8N 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 137.6E.
12JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
120000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 120000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 120000UTC 27.8N 136.6E
MOVEMENT NE 23KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 121200UTC 30.8N 140.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 130000UTC 33.5N 144.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 131200UTC 35.8N 149.9E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 140000UTC 38.0N 155.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 985 HPA
AT 28.0N 136.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.5N 139.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 33.2N 143.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 37.9N 155.1E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 980 HPA
AT 26.8N 135.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 29.3N 138.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 31.9N 142.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 112100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230611190525
2023061118 03W GUCHOL 024 01 045 17 SATL 060
T000 267N 1352E 060 R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 296N 1384E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 323N 1424E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 346N 1473E 040 R034 060 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 369N 1538E 035 R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 26.7N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.6N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.3N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.6N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 36.9N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 136.0E.
11JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061118Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061106 243N1325E 80
0323061112 255N1339E 70
0323061112 255N1339E 70
0323061112 255N1339E 70
0323061118 267N1352E 60
0323061118 267N1352E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 024
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 26.7N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.6N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.3N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.6N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 36.9N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 136.0E.
11JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111800UTC 26.0N 135.0E
MOVEMENT NE 20KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120600UTC 29.0N 138.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 121800UTC 31.9N 142.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 130600UTC 34.4N 146.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 131800UTC 36.6N 152.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 980 HPA
AT 26.1N 135.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 28.8N 138.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 31.4N 141.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 36.6N 151.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 980 HPA
AT 25.4N 134.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 28.1N 137.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 30.7N 140.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 111500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230611130904
2023061112 03W GUCHOL 023 01 040 18 SATL SYNP 035
T000 256N 1338E 080 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 282N 1365E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 309N 1398E 065 R064 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 336N 1442E 050 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T048 362N 1499E 040 R034 050 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 397N 1624E 025
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 25.6N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 33.6N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.2N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 39.7N 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 134.5E. 11JUN23.
TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 967 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061106 242N1325E 85
0323061106 242N1325E 85
0323061106 242N1325E 85
0323061112 256N1338E 80
0323061112 256N1338E 80
0323061112 256N1338E 80

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 25.6N 133.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 133.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.2N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 33.6N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.2N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 39.7N 162.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 134.5E. 11JUN23.
TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 967 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 42 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 111200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 111200UTC 24.7N 133.3E
MOVEMENT NE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 120000UTC 27.5N 136.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 121200UTC 30.3N 139.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 130000UTC 33.3N 144.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 131200UTC 35.8N 149.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 980 HPA
AT 24.7N 133.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 27.4N 136.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.0N 139.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 35.6N 149.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 980 HPA
AT 24.3N 132.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 27.1N 135.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 30.1N 138.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230611072336
2023061106 03W GUCHOL 022 01 040 13 SATL SYNP 015
T000 242N 1325E 085 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 266N 1349E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 294N 1378E 070 R064 000 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 323N 1417E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T048 352N 1469E 045 R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 398N 1592E 030
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.6N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.2N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 39.8N 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 133.1E.
11JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 964 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061018 221N1309E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061106 242N1325E 85
0323061106 242N1325E 85
0323061106 242N1325E 85

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 022 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.6N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 35.2N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 39.8N 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 133.1E.
11JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 964 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 43 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110600UTC 24.0N 132.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 10KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111800UTC 26.7N 135.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 120600UTC 29.4N 138.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 121800UTC 32.1N 142.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 130600UTC 34.7N 147.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 140600UTC 39.6N 159.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975
HPA
AT 24.2N 132.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 26.7N 135.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 29.5N 138.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 34.8N 147.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 39.2N 160.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 23.6N 132.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 25.9N 134.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 28.8N 137.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 110300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230611012057
2023061100 03W GUCHOL 021 01 030 14 SATL 060
T000 232N 1316E 085 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 255N 1334E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 281N 1363E 070 R064 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 311N 1400E 060 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T048 342N 1449E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T072 393N 1568E 040 R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.1N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.2N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.3N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 132.0E.
11JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061100Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 220N1309E 85
0323061018 220N1309E 85
0323061018 220N1309E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85
0323061100 232N1316E 85

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 23.2N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.5N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.1N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.1N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 34.2N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 39.3N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 132.0E.
11JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z
IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110000UTC 22.9N 131.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111200UTC 25.4N 133.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 120000UTC 28.1N 136.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 121200UTC 30.8N 140.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 130000UTC 33.7N 145.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 140000UTC 39.2N 157.4E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 23.0N 131.7E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 25.2N 133.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 28.0N 136.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 33.6N 144.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 39.1N 156.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 22.2N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110900UTC 24.5N 133.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 112100UTC 27.1N 135.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 121800UTC 31.7N 141.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 131800UTC 37.2N 152.9E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 22.2N 131.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 24.5N 133.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 27.1N 135.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 102100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230610191818
2023061018 03W GUCHOL 020 01 020 12 SATL 060
T000 220N 1309E 080 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 242N 1323E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 266N 1347E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 294N 1378E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 324N 1420E 055 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T072 378N 1537E 040 R034 080 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.6N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 37.8N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 131.3E.
10JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061018Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061006 201N1301E 90
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061012 209N1305E 85
0323061018 220N1309E 80
0323061018 220N1309E 80
0323061018 220N1309E 80

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.0N 130.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 130.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.2N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.6N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.4N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.4N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 37.8N 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 131.3E.
10JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
101800Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 131.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101800UTC 21.8N 131.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 13KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110600UTC 23.9N 132.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 111800UTC 26.0N 134.7E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 120600UTC 28.5N 137.5E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 121800UTC 31.6N 141.7E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 131800UTC 37.1N 152.3E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 21.8N 131.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110600UTC 23.8N 132.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 111800UTC 26.2N 135.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 121800UTC 31.7N 141.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 131800UTC 37.2N 152.9E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 21.8N 131.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 23.8N 132.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 26.2N 135.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 31.7N 141.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 37.2N 152.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 21.2N 130.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 23.1N 132.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 25.4N 134.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 21.2N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110300UTC 23.1N 132.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 111500UTC 25.4N 134.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 121200UTC 30.0N 139.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 131200UTC 35.8N 150.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 141200UTC 40.7N 164.4E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230610131625
2023061012 03W GUCHOL 019 01 030 08 SATL SYNP 020
T000 207N 1305E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 226N 1317E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 248N 1336E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 273N 1362E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 302N 1397E 060 R050 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 362N 1504E 045 R034 110 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 411N 1638E 035 R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.6N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.8N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.2N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 41.1N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 130.8E. 10JUN23.
TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061012Z IS 962 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 200N1301E 90
0323061006 200N1301E 90
0323061006 200N1301E 90
0323061012 207N1305E 85
0323061012 207N1305E 85
0323061012 207N1305E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TTYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.6N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.8N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.2N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 41.1N 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 130.8E. 10JUN23.
TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061012Z IS 962 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 130.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101200UTC 20.6N 130.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 7KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110000UTC 22.3N 131.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 111200UTC 24.4N 133.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 120000UTC 26.9N 136.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 121200UTC 29.9N 140.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 131200UTC 35.6N 149.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 141200UTC 40.3N 162.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 20.6N 130.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110000UTC 22.4N 131.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 111200UTC 24.6N 133.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 121200UTC 30.0N 139.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 131200UTC 35.8N 150.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 141200UTC 40.7N 164.4E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 20.6N 130.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 22.4N 131.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 24.6N 133.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.0N 139.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 35.8N 150.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 40.7N 164.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 20.4N 130.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 102100UTC 22.2N 131.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 110900UTC 24.3N 133.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 120600UTC 28.5N 137.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 130600UTC 34.2N 146.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 140600UTC 39.4N 159.2E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 20.4N 130.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 22.2N 131.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 24.3N 133.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230610070020
2023061006 03W GUCHOL 018 01 015 08 SATL SYNP 040
T000 200N 1301E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 217N 1310E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 237N 1325E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 260N 1347E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 287N 1376E 065 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 345N 1465E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 398N 1594E 035 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.0N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.0N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.7N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.5N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 39.8N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 130.3E. 10JUN23.
TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 2023061006Z IS 962 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061000 192N1299E 90
0323061006 200N1301E 90
0323061006 200N1301E 90
0323061006 200N1301E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.0N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.7N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.0N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 28.7N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.5N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 39.8N 159.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 130.3E. 10JUN23.
TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061006Z IS 962 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 19.9N, 130.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100600UTC 19.8N 130.2E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 101800UTC 21.3N 130.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 110600UTC 23.4N 132.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 111800UTC 25.6N 134.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 120600UTC 28.7N 138.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 130600UTC 34.5N 147.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 140600UTC 39.5N 159.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 19.9N 130.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101800UTC 21.6N 131.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 110600UTC 23.7N 132.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 120600UTC 28.5N 137.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 130600UTC 34.2N 146.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 140600UTC 39.4N 159.2E 170NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 19.9N 130.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 21.6N 131.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 23.7N 132.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 28.5N 137.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 34.2N 146.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 39.4N 159.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 19.3N 130.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 23.0N 132.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 120000UTC 26.8N 136.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 130000UTC 32.1N 142.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 140000UTC 37.1N 153.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 19.3N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 23.0N 132.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 100300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230610010856
2023061000 03W GUCHOL 017 01 360 04 SATL 040
T000 190N 1299E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 202N 1301E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 222N 1313E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 243N 1332E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 267N 1360E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 321N 1434E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T096 365N 1541E 040 R034 080 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.7N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 36.5N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 130.0E.
10JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023061000Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323060918 186N1299E 90
0323061000 190N1299E 90
0323061000 190N1299E 90
0323061000 190N1299E 90

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.2N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.7N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 36.5N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 130.0E.
10JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061000Z
IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 100000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100000UTC 18.9N 129.9E
MOVEMENT N 5KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 101200UTC 20.4N 130.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 110000UTC 22.4N 131.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 111200UTC 24.4N 133.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 120000UTC 26.9N 136.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 130000UTC 32.4N 143.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 140000UTC 37.6N 154.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 18.9N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 22.5N 131.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 120000UTC 26.8N 136.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 130000UTC 32.1N 142.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 140000UTC 37.1N 153.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 18.9N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 22.5N 131.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 26.8N 136.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 32.1N 142.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 37.1N 153.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 18.6N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 21.9N 131.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 111800UTC 25.1N 134.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 121800UTC 30.1N 140.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
93HF 131800UTC 35.7N 149.6E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 18.6N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 21.9N 131.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 092100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230609191303
2023060918 03W GUCHOL 016 01 335 02 SATL 030
T000 185N 1299E 090 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 196N 1300E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 212N 1308E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 229N 1324E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 251N 1347E 070 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 302N 1407E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T096 358N 1502E 045 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.2N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 35.8N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 129.9E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060918Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 35 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060906 179N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 85
0323060918 185N1299E 90
0323060918 185N1299E 90
0323060918 185N1299E 90

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.9N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.2N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 35.8N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 129.9E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060918Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 18.5N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL
NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY
FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091800UTC 18.5N 129.9E
MOVEMENT N 3KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 100600UTC 19.7N 130.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 101800UTC 21.1N 130.8E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 110600UTC 22.9N 132.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 111800UTC 25.0N 134.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 121800UTC 30.1N 140.5E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 131800UTC 35.8N 150.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 18.5N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 21.3N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 111800UTC 25.1N 134.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 121800UTC 30.1N 140.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 131800UTC 35.7N 149.6E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 970 HPA
AT 18.5N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 21.3N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 25.1N 134.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 30.1N 140.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.7N 149.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 18.3N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 20.7N 130.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 111200UTC 23.7N 133.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 121200UTC 28.4N 138.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 131200UTC 34.1N 147.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 141200UTC 39.7N 158.9E 240NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 18.3N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 20.7N 130.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230609125751
2023060912 03W GUCHOL 015 01 350 05 SATL 030
T000 183N 1300E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 194N 1302E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 207N 1308E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 222N 1320E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 241N 1338E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 287N 1391E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 347N 1474E 045 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.7N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 34.7N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 130.0E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060912Z
IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 178N1301E 85
0323060906 178N1301E 85
0323060906 178N1301E 85
0323060912 183N1300E 80
0323060912 183N1300E 80
0323060912 183N1300E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.7N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 34.7N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 130.0E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060912Z
IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 129.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091200UTC 18.1N 129.9E
MOVEMENT WNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 100000UTC 19.0N 130.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 101200UTC 20.3N 130.4E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 110000UTC 21.9N 131.7E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 111200UTC 23.8N 133.3E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 121200UTC 28.4N 138.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
96HR
POSITION 131200UTC 34.2N 147.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 141200UTC 40.0N 159.3E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 18.1N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 20.3N 130.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 111200UTC 23.7N 133.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 121200UTC 28.4N 138.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 131200UTC 34.1N 147.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 141200UTC 39.7N 158.9E 240NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 18.1N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 20.3N 130.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 23.7N 133.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 28.4N 138.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 34.1N 147.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 39.7N 158.9E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 18.0N 129.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 20.0N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 110600UTC 22.8N 132.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 120600UTC 27.0N 137.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 130600UTC 32.1N 144.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 140600UTC 37.3N 154.5E 240NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 18.0N 129.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 20.0N 130.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230609074738
2023060906 03W GUCHOL 014 01 340 06 SATL 030
T000 178N 1301E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 187N 1301E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 199N 1304E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 213N 1313E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 230N 1327E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 272N 1372E 060 R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 330N 1450E 045 R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.7N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.0N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.2N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 33.0N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 130.1E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060906Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060818 167N1306E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060900 172N1303E 85
0323060906 178N1301E 85
0323060906 178N1301E 85
0323060906 178N1301E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.8N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.7N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.0N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.2N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 33.0N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 130.1E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060906Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 17.8N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 090600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090600UTC 17.9N 130.1E
MOVEMENT NNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 091800UTC 18.5N 130.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 100600UTC 19.1N 130.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 101800UTC 20.3N 130.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 110600UTC 22.1N 132.0E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 120600UTC 26.7N 136.5E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 130600UTC 32.5N 145.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 140600UTC 39.0N 155.4E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 17.8N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 19.7N 130.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 110600UTC 22.8N 132.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 120600UTC 27.0N 137.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 130600UTC 32.1N 144.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 140600UTC 37.3N 154.5E 240NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 17.8N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 19.7N 130.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 22.8N 132.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 27.0N 137.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 32.1N 144.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 37.3N 154.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 17.5N 130.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 19.4N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 110000UTC 21.7N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 120000UTC 25.4N 135.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 130000UTC 30.5N 141.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
117HF 140000UTC 36.6N 151.8E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 17.5N 130.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 19.4N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230609012937
2023060900 03W GUCHOL 013 01 340 05 SATL 020
T000 172N 1304E 080 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 180N 1302E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 190N 1303E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 203N 1308E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 218N 1320E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 256N 1357E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 310N 1423E 055 R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 371N 1526E 040 R034 070 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.6N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 37.1N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 130.4E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060900Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 80
0323060818 167N1306E 80
0323060900 172N1304E 80
0323060900 172N1304E 80
0323060900 172N1304E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.3N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.8N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.6N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 37.1N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 130.4E.
09JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060900Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 17.2N, 130.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 090000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 090000UTC 17.2N 130.4E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 091200UTC 17.8N 130.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 100000UTC 18.6N 130.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 101200UTC 19.7N 130.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 110000UTC 21.3N 131.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 120000UTC 25.4N 134.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 130000UTC 30.8N 142.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 140000UTC 37.3N 152.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 17.2N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 19.0N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 110000UTC 21.7N 131.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 120000UTC 25.4N 135.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 130000UTC 30.5N 141.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
120HF 140000UTC 36.6N 151.8E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 17.2N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 19.0N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 21.7N 131.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 25.4N 135.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 30.5N 141.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 36.6N 151.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 17.0N 130.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 18.6N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 101800UTC 20.6N 130.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 111800UTC 24.2N 133.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 121800UTC 29.1N 139.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 131800UTC 35.3N 149.8E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 17.0N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 18.6N 130.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230608193250
2023060818 03W GUCHOL 012 01 310 06 SATL 020
T000 169N 1304E 080 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 135 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 177N 1300E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 186N 1300E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 197N 1302E 085 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 211N 1310E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 247N 1341E 070 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 296N 1401E 060 R050 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 360N 1502E 045 R034 080 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 36.0N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 130.3E.
08JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060818Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060718 156N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060812 165N1309E 80
0323060818 169N1304E 80
0323060818 169N1304E 80
0323060818 169N1304E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.9N 130.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 130.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.7N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.6N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.7N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.1N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 36.0N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 130.3E.
08JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060818Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 130.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 081800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 081800UTC 16.9N 130.4E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 090600UTC 17.5N 130.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 091800UTC 18.2N 130.0E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 100600UTC 19.1N 130.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 101800UTC 20.6N 130.9E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 111800UTC 24.3N 133.7E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 121800UTC 29.2N 139.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 131800UTC 35.4N 150.0E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 16.9N 130.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 18.4N 130.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 101800UTC 20.6N 130.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 111800UTC 24.2N 133.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 121800UTC 29.1N 139.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 131800UTC 35.3N 149.8E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 975 HPA
AT 16.9N 130.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 18.4N 130.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 20.6N 130.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 24.2N 133.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 29.1N 139.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.3N 149.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 16.7N 130.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 18.0N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 101200UTC 19.8N 130.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 111200UTC 23.0N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 121200UTC 27.7N 137.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 131200UTC 34.1N 147.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 980 HPA
AT 16.7N 130.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 18.0N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 130.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 081200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 081200UTC 16.4N 130.8E
MOVEMENT NNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 090000UTC 17.1N 130.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 091200UTC 17.8N 130.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 100000UTC 18.6N 130.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 101200UTC 19.9N 130.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 111200UTC 23.3N 132.8E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 121200UTC 27.8N 137.7E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 131200UTC 33.9N 147.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2303 GUCHOL (2303) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 16.3N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 17.9N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 101200UTC 19.8N 130.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 111200UTC 23.0N 132.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 121200UTC 27.7N 137.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 131200UTC 34.1N 147.3E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2303 GUCHOL (2303) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980
HPA
AT 16.3N 130.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 17.9N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 19.8N 130.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 23.0N 132.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 27.7N 137.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 34.1N 147.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 16.2N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 17.7N 130.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 100600UTC 19.3N 130.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 110600UTC 22.1N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 120600UTC 26.3N 136.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
117HF 130600UTC 32.1N 143.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 985 HPA
AT 16.2N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 17.7N 130.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230608071617
2023060806 03W GUCHOL 010 01 300 06 SATL 025
T000 162N 1312E 070 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 169N 1306E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 176N 1302E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 184N 1302E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 195N 1305E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 226N 1326E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 270N 1370E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 319N 1434E 055 R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.6N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.6N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.0N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 131.1E.
08JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060806Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 157N1324E 60
0323060718 157N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
0323060806 162N1312E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 16.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.9N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.6N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 19.5N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.6N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.0N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 31.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 131.1E.
08JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 646 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060806Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 16.0N, 131.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080600UTC 16.0N 131.1E
MOVEMENT WNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 081800UTC 16.7N 130.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 090600UTC 17.5N 130.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
36HR
POSITION 091800UTC 18.2N 130.0E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 100600UTC 19.3N 130.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 110600UTC 22.3N 132.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 120600UTC 26.5N 136.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 130600UTC 32.1N 143.6E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 16.0N 131.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 17.6N 130.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 100600UTC 19.3N 130.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 110600UTC 22.1N 132.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 120600UTC 26.3N 136.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
120HF 130600UTC 32.1N 143.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 985 HPA
AT 16.0N 131.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 17.6N 130.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 19.3N 130.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 22.1N 132.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 26.3N 136.1E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 32.1N 143.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 15.8N 131.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 17.5N 130.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 100000UTC 18.9N 130.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 110000UTC 21.6N 131.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 120000UTC 25.3N 135.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 130000UTC 30.7N 141.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 992 HPA
AT 15.8N 131.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 17.5N 130.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230608011218
2023060800 03W GUCHOL 009 01 290 06 SATL 025
T000 159N 1318E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 166N 1309E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 172N 1305E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 180N 1303E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 188N 1303E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 216N 1318E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 257N 1355E 070 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 309N 1418E 060 R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.6N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 131.6E.
08JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 498 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 157N1324E 60
0323060718 157N1324E 60
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
0323060800 159N1318E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 15.9N 131.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 131.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.6N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 131.6E.
08JUN23. TYPHOON 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 498 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 15.6N, 131.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION
OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080000UTC 15.7N 131.6E
MOVEMENT W 9KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 081200UTC 16.4N 130.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 090000UTC 17.1N 130.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
36HR
POSITION 091200UTC 17.9N 130.1E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 100000UTC 18.7N 130.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 110000UTC 21.5N 131.1E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 120000UTC 25.7N 134.9E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 130000UTC 31.1N 141.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2303 GUCHOL (2303) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 15.6N 131.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 17.3N 130.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 100000UTC 18.9N 130.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 110000UTC 21.6N 131.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 120000UTC 25.3N 135.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 130000UTC 30.7N 141.7E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 15.6N 131.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 17.3N 130.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 18.9N 130.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 21.6N 131.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 25.3N 135.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 30.7N 141.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 15.6N 132.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 17.0N 130.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 091800UTC 18.2N 129.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 101800UTC 20.6N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 111800UTC 24.3N 133.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 121800UTC 29.2N 139.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 994 HPA
AT 15.6N 132.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 17.0N 130.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230607191951
2023060718 03W GUCHOL 008 01 300 07 SATL 030
T000 157N 1324E 060 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 164N 1314E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 170N 1306E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 177N 1303E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 185N 1303E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 209N 1312E 075 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 247N 1340E 070 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 299N 1397E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.5N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.9N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 132.1E.
07JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060718Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060712 154N1330E 55
0323060718 157N1324E 60
0323060718 157N1324E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 132.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 132.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.0N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.7N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.5N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.9N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 132.1E.
07JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 476
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
2023060718Z IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 15.4N, 132.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071800UTC 15.4N 132.5E
MOVEMENT WNW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080600UTC 16.1N 131.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
24HR
POSITION 081800UTC 16.7N 130.6E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 090600UTC 17.2N 130.2E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 091800UTC 18.1N 130.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
72HR
POSITION 101800UTC 20.7N 130.5E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 111800UTC 24.3N 133.2E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 121800UTC 29.1N 138.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 15.4N 132.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 16.8N 130.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 091800UTC 18.2N 129.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 101800UTC 20.6N 130.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 111800UTC 24.3N 133.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 121800UTC 29.2N 139.1E 200NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 994 HPA
AT 15.4N 132.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 16.8N 130.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 18.2N 129.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 20.6N 130.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 24.3N 133.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 29.2N 139.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 15.2N 132.9E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 16.6N 130.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 091200UTC 17.8N 130.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 101200UTC 19.7N 130.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 111200UTC 23.5N 132.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 121200UTC 27.7N 135.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 994 HPA
AT 15.2N 132.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 16.6N 130.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230607131858
2023060712 03W GUCHOL 007 01 300 08 SATL SYNP 030
T000 153N 1331E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 159N 1320E 065 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 165N 1311E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 171N 1306E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 178N 1303E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 199N 1308E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 233N 1329E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 282N 1376E 070 R064 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.9N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.1N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.2N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 132.8E. 07JUN23.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060712Z IS 992 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
0323060706 149N1338E 45
0323060712 153N1331E 55
0323060712 153N1331E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.9N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.5N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.1N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.8N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.2N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 132.8E. 07JUN23.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060712Z IS 992 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 133.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW
DISTINCT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071200UTC 15.2N 133.1E
MOVEMENT W 4KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 080000UTC 15.8N 131.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 081200UTC 16.4N 130.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 090000UTC 16.9N 130.4E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 091200UTC 17.7N 130.1E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 82KT
72HR
POSITION 101200UTC 19.9N 130.2E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 111200UTC 23.5N 132.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 121200UTC 27.9N 135.8E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 15.2N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 16.5N 131.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 091200UTC 17.8N 130.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 101200UTC 19.7N 130.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 111200UTC 23.5N 132.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 121200UTC 27.7N 135.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 994 HPA
AT 15.2N 133.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 16.5N 131.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 17.8N 130.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 19.7N 130.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 23.5N 132.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 27.7N 135.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 15.2N 133.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 16.4N 131.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 090600UTC 17.6N 130.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 100600UTC 19.2N 130.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 110600UTC 22.4N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 120600UTC 26.6N 134.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 994 HPA
AT 15.2N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 16.4N 131.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 133.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOWER SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP
AND INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070600UTC 15.1N 133.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 071800UTC 15.6N 132.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 080600UTC 16.2N 131.2E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 081800UTC 16.7N 130.6E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 090600UTC 17.3N 130.2E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 82KT
72HR
POSITION 100600UTC 19.2N 130.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 110600UTC 22.4N 131.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 120600UTC 27.0N 135.1E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 15.2N 133.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 16.2N 131.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 090600UTC 17.6N 130.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 100600UTC 19.2N 130.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 110600UTC 22.4N 131.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 120600UTC 26.6N 134.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 994 HPA
AT 15.2N 133.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 16.2N 131.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 17.6N 130.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 19.2N 130.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 22.4N 131.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 26.6N 134.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 15.1N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 16.1N 131.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 090000UTC 17.2N 130.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 100000UTC 18.6N 130.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 110000UTC 21.4N 131.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 120000UTC 25.6N 133.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 998 HPA
AT 15.1N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 16.1N 131.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230607012258
2023060700 03W GUCHOL 005 01 295 02 SATL 060
T000 146N 1341E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 150N 1334E 050 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 155N 1324E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 162N 1313E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 170N 1307E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 183N 1305E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 214N 1325E 080 R064 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 251N 1357E 080 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 133.9E.
07JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 797
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060700Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 145N1343E 35
0323060700 146N1341E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.0N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 133.9E.
07JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 797
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
060700Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 15.0N, 134.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND HIGH SSTS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070000UTC 14.8N 134.4E
MOVEMENT NW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 071200UTC 15.3N 133.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 080000UTC 15.9N 131.9E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 081200UTC 16.4N 130.9E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 090000UTC 17.0N 130.4E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 100000UTC 18.6N 129.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 110000UTC 21.3N 130.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 120000UTC 25.4N 133.5E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 15.0N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 15.8N 132.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 090000UTC 17.2N 130.5E 60NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 100000UTC 18.6N 130.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 110000UTC 21.4N 131.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 120000UTC 25.6N 133.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 998 HPA
AT 15.0N 134.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 15.8N 132.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 17.2N 130.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 18.6N 130.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 21.4N 131.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 25.6N 133.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 14.9N 134.5E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 15.8N 132.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 081800UTC 16.7N 130.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 091800UTC 18.0N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 101800UTC 20.3N 130.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 111800UTC 23.9N 132.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 998 HPA
AT 14.9N 134.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 15.8N 132.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230606191555
2023060618 03W GUCHOL 004 01 315 06 SATL 060
T000 147N 1342E 035 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 153N 1332E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 158N 1323E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 163N 1313E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 169N 1305E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 183N 1298E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 207N 1311E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 242N 1339E 075 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 134.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 134.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.9N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 133.9E.
06JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387
NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060618Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1348E 30
0323060612 143N1346E 35
0323060618 147N1342E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.7N 134.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 134.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.3N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.9N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.3N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 20.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 133.9E.
06JUN23. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387
NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060618Z IS
996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 14.2N, 135.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND
WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 061800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 061800UTC 14.2N 134.7E
MOVEMENT N 24KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 070600UTC 15.0N 133.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 071800UTC 15.6N 132.5E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 080600UTC 16.2N 131.3E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 081800UTC 16.8N 130.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 091800UTC 18.1N 129.9E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 101800UTC 20.4N 130.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 111800UTC 24.1N 132.2E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 14.2N 135.0E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 15.4N 132.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 081800UTC 16.7N 130.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 091800UTC 18.0N 129.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 101800UTC 20.3N 130.4E 170NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 111800UTC 23.9N 132.3E 240NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) 998 HPA
AT 14.2N 135.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 15.4N 132.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 16.7N 130.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 18.0N 129.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 20.3N 130.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 23.9N 132.3E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 12.9N 134.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 14.9N 132.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 081200UTC 16.5N 130.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 091200UTC 17.8N 130.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 101200UTC 19.6N 130.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 111200UTC 22.9N 131.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230606132622
2023060612 03W GUCHOL 003 01 350 06 SATL SYNP 035
T000 144N 1348E 035 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 153N 1342E 045 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 159N 1332E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 164N 1321E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 169N 1312E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 180N 1303E 080 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 199N 1304E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 232N 1317E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.9N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 134.6E. 06JUN23.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060612Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1349E 30
0323060612 144N1348E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.3N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.9N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.4N 132.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.9N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.0N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.9N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 134.6E. 06JUN23.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (GUCHOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060612Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.8N, 134.8E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(GUCHOL) STATUS. TS GUCHOL IS LOCATED AT 12.8N, 134.8E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND
REDUCED TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 061200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 2303 GUCHOL
ANALYSIS
POSITION 061200UTC 13.0N 134.7E
MOVEMENT E 2KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 070000UTC 14.0N 134.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 071200UTC 15.1N 133.1E WITHIN 55NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
36HR
POSITION 080000UTC 15.9N 131.9E WITHIN 70NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 081200UTC 16.5N 130.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 091200UTC 17.7N 130.0E WITHIN 110NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 101200UTC 19.6N 130.1E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
120HR
POSITION 111200UTC 22.9N 131.4E WITHIN 190NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2303 GUCHOL (2303) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 12.8N 134.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 14.8N 133.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 081200UTC 16.5N 130.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 091200UTC 17.8N 130.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 101200UTC 19.6N 130.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 111200UTC 22.9N 131.8E 280NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

>

Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2303 GUCHOL (2303) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1002 HPA
AT 12.8N 134.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 14.8N 133.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 16.5N 130.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 17.8N 130.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 19.6N 130.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 22.9N 131.8E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230606064625
2023060606 03W THREE 002 01 010 05 SATL SYNP 045
T000 138N 1349E 030
T012 148N 1346E 040 R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 154N 1337E 050 R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 159N 1327E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 164N 1316E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 174N 1303E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 189N 1303E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 216N 1309E 085 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.8N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.4N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 134.8E. 06JUN23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
319 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060606Z IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 133N1348E 25
0323060606 138N1349E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 13.8N 134.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 134.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.8N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.4N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.4N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 134.8E. 06JUN23.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
319 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 2023060606Z IS
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.2N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.2N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 134.8E.
06JUN23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
304 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03W NWP 230606010020
2023060600 03W THREE 001 01 360 06 SATL 030
T000 134N 1348E 025
T012 144N 1346E 035 R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 152N 1340E 045 R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 156N 1330E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 162N 1319E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 172N 1302E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 184N 1297E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 210N 1301E 085 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 134.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 134.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.2N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.6N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.2N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.0N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 134.8E.
06JUN23. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
304 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
0323060500 118N1350E 20
0323060506 120N1349E 20
0323060512 123N1348E 20
0323060518 128N1348E 20
0323060600 134N1348E 25
NNNN

>