Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for OCTAVE-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 192039
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours. The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data. The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent.

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt. The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period. A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 192038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2019

...OCTAVE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.7W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST. OCTAVE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. A SLOW AND ERRATIC
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 192037
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 104.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2019 0 18.0N 104.4W 1007 20
0000UTC 20.10.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 86.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2019 0 29.4N 86.6W 999 33
0000UTC 20.10.2019 12 31.4N 83.9W 1000 33
1200UTC 20.10.2019 24 34.5N 79.7W 1003 35
0000UTC 21.10.2019 36 36.8N 75.7W 1003 39
1200UTC 21.10.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 126.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2019 0 12.1N 126.0W 1008 26
0000UTC 20.10.2019 12 11.9N 125.9W 1008 21
1200UTC 20.10.2019 24 11.1N 125.6W 1009 20
0000UTC 21.10.2019 36 10.9N 125.6W 1007 22
1200UTC 21.10.2019 48 10.3N 125.6W 1008 20
0000UTC 22.10.2019 60 10.8N 125.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 22.10.2019 72 11.4N 125.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 23.10.2019 84 12.0N 125.8W 1007 22
1200UTC 23.10.2019 96 12.4N 125.9W 1007 23
0000UTC 24.10.2019 108 12.6N 125.8W 1007 22
1200UTC 24.10.2019 120 12.6N 125.6W 1007 22
0000UTC 25.10.2019 132 12.5N 125.6W 1006 22
1200UTC 25.10.2019 144 12.3N 125.8W 1007 24

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.0N 137.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2019 0 10.0N 137.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 20.10.2019 12 9.8N 137.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 20.10.2019 24 9.7N 138.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 21.10.2019 36 9.7N 139.4W 1006 26
1200UTC 21.10.2019 48 9.5N 140.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 22.10.2019 60 9.2N 142.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 22.10.2019 72 9.5N 143.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 23.10.2019 84 9.7N 145.3W 1004 26
1200UTC 23.10.2019 96 10.5N 147.2W 1005 25
0000UTC 24.10.2019 108 11.7N 149.0W 1004 27
1200UTC 24.10.2019 120 12.6N 150.8W 1004 28
0000UTC 25.10.2019 132 13.5N 152.8W 1003 26
1200UTC 25.10.2019 144 14.5N 154.1W 1004 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191558

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 104.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2019 18.0N 104.4W WEAK
00UTC 20.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 86.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2019 29.4N 86.6W MODERATE
00UTC 20.10.2019 31.4N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 34.5N 79.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 36.8N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 126.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2019 12.1N 126.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.10.2019 11.9N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 11.1N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 10.9N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 10.3N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2019 10.8N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2019 11.4N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2019 12.0N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2019 12.4N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2019 12.6N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2019 12.6N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2019 12.5N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2019 12.3N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 10.0N 137.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2019 10.0N 137.0W WEAK
00UTC 20.10.2019 9.8N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 9.7N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 9.7N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 9.5N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2019 9.2N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2019 9.5N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2019 9.7N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2019 10.5N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2019 11.7N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2019 12.6N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2019 13.5N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2019 14.5N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191558

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 191458 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2019

OCTAVE'S LAST BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATED ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO,
AROUND 0900 UTC, LEAVING THE CYCLONE AS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON
THE CI NUMBER FROM TAFB. OCTAVE COULD STILL PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT INCREASED
SHEAR AND A DRY AIR MASS WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30-40
PERCENT ARE LIKELY TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY FROM BEING PERSISTENT OR
WELL ORGANIZED. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOESN'T REDEVELOP SOON, THEN
OCTAVE WOULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE'S
MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE MORE IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT
THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST NEAR THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

OCTAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, OR 070/2 KT. THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN, AND IT IS LIKELY
TO MEANDER AROUND FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS, NEVER REACHING SPEEDS ANY
HIGHER THAN ABOUT 3 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 11.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 191458
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Octave's last bit of deep convection dissipated about 6 hours ago,
around 0900 UTC, leaving the cyclone as a swirl of low-level clouds.
The maximum winds are still estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on
the CI number from TAFB. Octave could still produce intermittent
bursts of convection during the next several days, but increased
shear and a dry air mass with mid-level relative humidities of 30-40
percent are likely to keep the activity from being persistent or
well organized. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, then
Octave would be declared a remnant low later today. The cyclone's
maximum winds should decrease a little more in the short term, but
the remnant low is likely to persist near the Intertropical
Convergence Zone for the entire 5-day forecast period.

Octave is moving slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2 kt. The
depression is caught in a weak steering pattern, and it is likely
to meander around for the next 5 days, never reaching speeds any
higher than about 3 kt. No significant changes to the NHC track
forecast were made from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 11.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 12.5N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z 12.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 191457
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2019

...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 125.9W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST. OCTAVE
IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND OCTAVE IS
FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 191456
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 125.9W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 125.9W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.3N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 10.9N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 10.8N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.4N 125.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 12.5N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 12.6N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 190837 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2019

DRY AIR AND SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON OCTAVE.
SMALL BURSTS OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
OCTAVE'S CENTER, AND THE LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER IS CAUSING THE LOW TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUGGESTS WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 30 KT, WITH EVEN LOWER INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND
UW-CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THAT THE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER MISSED THE
SYSTEM, AND THE FACT IT DOES TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN THESE LOWS, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 30 KT.

OCTAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOUT 25 KT
OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND IN THE PRESENCE VERY DRY AIR FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM
PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE LONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
VORTEX. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE, AND OCTAVE
MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES
A REMNANT LOW, THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT BELIEVED THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL
BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REGENERATE. THIS
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OCTAVE IS DRIFTING NORTHEAST AND IT SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK FLOW
REGIME FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
SHOWS A MEANDERING MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE
FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 190837
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Octave Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Dry air and southeasterly shear are taking their toll on Octave.
Small bursts of intermittent convection continue to the northwest of
Octave's center, and the lack of persistent deep convection over the
center is causing the low to gradually spin down. The latest
subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests winds have
decreased to 30 kt, with even lower intensity estimates from SAB and
UW-CIMSS ADT. Given that the overnight scatterometer missed the
system, and the fact it does take time to spin down these lows, the
initial intensity is lowered generously to 30 kt.

Octave will continue to be in a hostile environment with about 25 kt
of southeasterly wind shear and in the presence very dry air for the
next few days. This should prevent any deep convection from
persisting over the cyclone long enough to maintain the current
vortex. Thus, a gradual weakening trend should continue, and Octave
may become a remnant low by tonight. Even after the system becomes
a remnant low, there could be occasional development of convection.
However, at this time it is not believed that this convection will
be sufficient enough to cause the cyclone to regenerate. This
remnant low is expected to persist through the end of the forecast
period.

Octave is drifting northeast and it should remain in a weak flow
regime for the entire forecast period. The official NHC forecast
shows a meandering motion for the next several days, and the
forecast track lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 11.5N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 190836
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2019

...OCTAVE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 126.4W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST. OCTAVE
IS DRIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H), AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND OCTAVE COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 190836
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.4W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.4W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 126.5W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.6N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.2N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.0N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.7N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 13.0N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 126.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 190357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 19.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2019 0 27.5N 87.9W 999 32
1200UTC 19.10.2019 12 29.1N 86.1W 999 37
0000UTC 20.10.2019 24 30.8N 83.7W 1001 35
1200UTC 20.10.2019 36 34.5N 79.2W 1002 37
0000UTC 21.10.2019 48 36.1N 75.5W 1001 38
1200UTC 21.10.2019 60 36.0N 71.3W 1006 35
0000UTC 22.10.2019 72 36.4N 68.8W 1008 31
1200UTC 22.10.2019 84 37.0N 67.5W 1010 27
0000UTC 23.10.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.10.2019 0 11.3N 126.1W 1005 33
1200UTC 19.10.2019 12 12.0N 125.6W 1008 25
0000UTC 20.10.2019 24 12.0N 124.8W 1007 27
1200UTC 20.10.2019 36 11.1N 124.4W 1008 23
0000UTC 21.10.2019 48 10.8N 124.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.10.2019 60 10.5N 123.6W 1007 23
0000UTC 22.10.2019 72 11.3N 123.2W 1007 24
1200UTC 22.10.2019 84 12.0N 123.0W 1007 23
0000UTC 23.10.2019 96 12.2N 123.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 23.10.2019 108 12.5N 122.3W 1007 22
0000UTC 24.10.2019 120 12.8N 121.2W 1006 21
1200UTC 24.10.2019 132 13.3N 120.2W 1006 19
0000UTC 25.10.2019 144 13.7N 119.8W 1006 20

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 9.7N 136.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.10.2019 12 10.0N 136.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 20.10.2019 24 10.1N 137.5W 1008 23
1200UTC 20.10.2019 36 9.8N 138.3W 1008 24
0000UTC 21.10.2019 48 9.5N 139.7W 1006 22
1200UTC 21.10.2019 60 9.4N 140.9W 1007 24
0000UTC 22.10.2019 72 9.2N 142.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 22.10.2019 84 9.2N 144.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 23.10.2019 96 9.6N 146.5W 1005 24
1200UTC 23.10.2019 108 10.3N 148.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 24.10.2019 120 10.8N 150.5W 1004 24
1200UTC 24.10.2019 132 11.5N 152.2W 1004 25
0000UTC 25.10.2019 144 12.3N 153.3W 1001 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190357

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 190357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM NESTOR ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 87.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2019 27.5N 87.9W MODERATE
12UTC 19.10.2019 29.1N 86.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 30.8N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 34.5N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 36.1N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 36.0N 71.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.10.2019 36.4N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2019 37.0N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.10.2019 11.3N 126.1W WEAK
12UTC 19.10.2019 12.0N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 12.0N 124.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 11.1N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 10.8N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 10.5N 123.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2019 11.3N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2019 12.0N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2019 12.2N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2019 12.5N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2019 12.8N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2019 13.3N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2019 13.7N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 9.7N 136.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.10.2019 10.0N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.10.2019 10.1N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.10.2019 9.8N 138.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.10.2019 9.5N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.10.2019 9.4N 140.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.10.2019 9.2N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2019 9.2N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2019 9.6N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2019 10.3N 148.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2019 10.8N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.10.2019 11.5N 152.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2019 12.3N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 190357

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 190233 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

OCTAVE'S CONVECTION HAS WAXED AND WANED SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM
FORMED YESTERDAY, AND IT'S ONCE AGAIN TRENDING UPWARD. CONVECTION
REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS, STAVING OFF REMNANT LOW STATUS FOR NOW. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT, BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR THE
CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ON SATURDAY, SO OCTAVE IS
STILL NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST MAINTAINS OCTAVE AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 MORE
HOURS, BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. ONCE IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW,
OCCASIONAL DISORGANIZED PATCHES OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A WEAK LOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS, BUT IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK.

OCTAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD, NOW AT 4 KT. THE SHALLOW
TROPICAL STORM IS CAUGHT BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS
SOUTH AND EASTERLY TRADE-WIND FLOW TO ITS NORTH, AND THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY POOR AGREEMENT ON WHICH FLOW REGIME WILL
DOMINATE THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AFTER IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL
OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW MODELS (INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND HMON)
FORECAST THAT NEITHER REGIME WILL DOMINATE AND OCTAVE WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD IS OVER 600
MILES BY DAY 5, BUT I HAVE NO REASON TO FAVOR ANY ONE TRACK OVER THE
OTHERS AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 190233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's convection has waxed and waned since the tropical storm
formed yesterday, and it's once again trending upward. Convection
redeveloped in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone during the past
few hours, staving off remnant low status for now. The intensity
remains 35 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The global models
indicate that upper-level winds will become unfavorable for the
continued maintenance of deep convection on Saturday, so Octave is
still not expected to last much longer as a tropical cyclone. The
new NHC forecast maintains Octave as a tropical storm for 12 more
hours, but this could be generous. Once it becomes a remnant low,
occasional disorganized patches of convection will probably be
enough to maintain a weak low for at least a few more days, but it
is not expected to make any kind of significant comeback.

Octave has continued to move northward, now at 4 kt. The shallow
tropical storm is caught between low-level southwesterly flow to its
south and easterly trade-wind flow to its north, and the dynamical
guidance is in extremely poor agreement on which flow regime will
dominate the motion of the cyclone after it becomes post-tropical
over the weekend. A few models (including the ECMWF and HMON)
forecast that neither regime will dominate and Octave will move very
little for the next 5 days. The overall model spread is over 600
miles by day 5, but I have no reason to favor any one track over the
others at this point. Therefore, the official track forecast is
largely unchanged and lies near the middle of the unusually wide
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 11.5N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 190232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...OCTAVE STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 126.6W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 126.6 West. Octave is
moving slowly toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The tropical
storm is forecast to meander for the next several days, and little
net movement is anticipated.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Octave is
forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 190232
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
0300 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 126.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 182032 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

OCTAVE'S DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING, LEAVING A
WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
WITH THE DEGRADATION OF THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE, RECENT ASCAT DATA
REVEALED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT. A NEW SMALL
BURST OF CONVECTION IS GOING UP TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, BUT IT'S
DIFFICULT TO KNOW IF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND IF IT WILL
MEET THE ORGANIZATIONAL REQUIREMENTS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT OCTAVE COULD
MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS, BUT IT'S
PROBABLY AT LEAST EQUALLY LIKELY THAT THE STORM COULD DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOESN'T INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. EITHER WAY, DRY AIR AND INCREASING SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE OCTAVE'S WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WITH THE REMNANT LOW MAINTAINING 25-KT WINDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OCTAVE'S MOTION HAS BEEN NORTHWARD, OR 360/4 KT. THIS MOTION IS
LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH DROPS SOUTHWARD, AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
A TIGHT CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, MOVED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BY DAY 5, THERE IS A 700 N MI
SPREAD BETWEEN THE EASTERNMOST HWRF MODEL AND THE WESTERNMOST UKMET
MODEL, SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 182032
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Octave's deep convection dissipated earlier this morning, leaving a
well-defined swirl of low clouds in visible satellite imagery.
With the degradation of the cyclone's structure, recent ASCAT data
revealed that maximum winds have decreased to 35 kt. A new small
burst of convection is going up to the west of the center, but it's
difficult to know if this convection will continue and if it will
meet the organizational requirements for a tropical cyclone. The
new NHC forecast leaves open the possibility that Octave could
maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 hours, but it's
probably at least equally likely that the storm could degenerate
into a remnant low tonight if convection doesn't increase
substantially. Either way, dry air and increasing shear are
expected to cause Octave's winds to continue decreasing for the next
24 hours, with the remnant low maintaining 25-kt winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Octave's motion has been northward, or 360/4 kt. This motion is
likely to be suppressed within the next 12-24 hours as a low-level
trough to the north drops southward, and Octave is expected to make
a tight clockwise loop during the 5-day forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is a little east of the previous
forecast, moved in the direction of the multi-model consensus aids.
However, it should be noted that by day 5, there is a 700 n mi
spread between the easternmost HWRF model and the westernmost UKMET
model, suggesting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
exactly where Octave will end up. Fortunately, it is not likely to
be a significant cyclone at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 11.0N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 182032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 PM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

...OCTAVE EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 126.6W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OR MAKE A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND OCTAVE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 182030
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
2100 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 20NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 126.6W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.6N 126.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.7N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.3N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 11.9N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.9N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 181447 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

A 0941 UTC GCOM MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN SHOWING THAT
OCTAVE'S CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS,
AND ALSO WELL TO THE EAST OF A MORE NOTABLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM OVERNIGHT.

THE MICROWAVE DATA AND RECENT CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOW THAT OCTAVE
IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY SEPARATING FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE (ITCZ). THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD,
OR 360/2 KT. ANY ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS IS LIKELY TO BE
HINDERED IN 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH WHICH IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PACIFIC. AFTER THAT PUSH, THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON WHETHER OCTAVE MOVES EASTWARD OR WESTWARD, SO THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEANDERING OR SLOW LOOPING MOTION
DURING THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH OCTAVE NOW MOVING OUT OF THE ITCZ, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE
WEST IS WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION, WHICH IS LIKELY
CAUSING THE RECENT WANING OF CONVECTION. SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY 40-50
PERCENT, AND THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 30 PERCENT OR
LOWER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS DECREASE IN MOISTURE WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR, AND BOTH FACTORS
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY--AND A LOSS OF

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 181447
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

A 0941 UTC GCOM microwave overpass was instrumental in showing that
Octave's center is located to the east of the main convective mass,
and also well to the east of a more notable mid-level circulation.
Cloud tops have warmed during the past few hours, but the initial
intensity is being held at 40 kt based on ASCAT data from overnight.

The microwave data and recent conventional imagery show that Octave
is at least partially separating from the Intertropical Convergence
Zone (ITCZ). The initial motion estimate is now slowly northward,
or 360/2 kt. Any additional northward progress is likely to be
hindered in 24-36 hours due to the push of low-level northerly winds
in the wake of a trough which is dropping southward over the
Pacific. After that push, there is some difference between the
models on whether Octave moves eastward or westward, so the NHC
forecast continues to show a meandering or slow looping motion
during the 5-day forecast period.

With Octave now moving out of the ITCZ, low-level dry air to the
west is wrapping into the cyclone's circulation, which is likely
causing the recent waning of convection. SHIPS model diagnostics
indicate that mid-level relative humidity is currently 40-50
percent, and these values are expected to decrease to 30 percent or
lower in about 48 hours. This decrease in moisture will also
coincide with an increase in southeasterly shear, and both factors
will likely contribute to a decrease in intensity--and a loss of
tropical cyclone status--during the next couple of days. The new
NHC forecast closely follows the IVCN and HCCA aids and shows
weakening during the next day or two, with Octave likely to
degenerate into a remnant low within 48 hours. The low is expected
to linger for several more days after that, but the environment
does not appear conducive for regeneration into a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.1N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 11.6N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 11.2N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 11.0N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 11.5N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z 12.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 181446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

...OCTAVE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 126.6W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST. OCTAVE IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H), BUT THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER OR MAKE A SLOW CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND OCTAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 181446
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
1500 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 126.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 126.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.6N 126.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.2N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.0N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 11.5N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 12.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 180834
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Convection around the center briefly dissipated earlier tonight,
but has since redeveloped with cloud tops colder than -70 C. Octave
has a ragged appearance, and it is apparent that some northeasterly
shear is affecting the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed
several wind vectors of 35-40 kt, and therefore the initial
advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt.

Octave has slowed to a crawl tonight, with an initial motion of
270/01 kt. Weak steering flow will prevail around the cyclone for
the next several days, and a meandering motion is expected
throughout the forecast period with a total net motion of only about
100 n mi during that time. The official NHC forecast is between
the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance, which
resulted in only a slight westward shift in the track beyond day 3.

The intermittent bursts of convection are suggesting that the system
has been trying to fight off a dry environment. In addition, the
shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to change little
in the next 12-18 hours. These moderately negative factors
offsetting the warm SSTs should cause Octave to not change much in
intensity today. By later tonight, even drier air is expected to
begin entraining into Octave's circulation, and at the same time
20-25 kt southeasterly winds aloft will begin to shear the cyclone.
These increasingly hostile conditions should cause weakening to
begin, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low between 48-72
hours. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and
near the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 9.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 180834 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER BRIEFLY DISSIPATED EARLIER TONIGHT,
BUT HAS SINCE REDEVELOPED WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 C. OCTAVE
HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE, AND IT IS APPARENT THAT SOME NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. A RECENT ASCAT-A OVERPASS SHOWED
SEVERAL WIND VECTORS OF 35-40 KT, AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL
ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 40 KT.

OCTAVE HAS SLOWED TO A CRAWL TONIGHT, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
270/01 KT. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE CYCLONE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND A MEANDERING MOTION IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A TOTAL NET MOTION OF ONLY ABOUT
100 N MI DURING THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, WHICH
RESULTED IN ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK BEYOND DAY 3.

THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS BEEN TRYING TO FIGHT OFF A DRY ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION, THE
SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THESE MODERATELY NEGATIVE FACTORS
OFFSETTING THE WARM SSTS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO NOT CHANGE MUCH IN
INTENSITY TODAY. BY LATER TONIGHT, EVEN DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ENTRAINING INTO OCTAVE'S CIRCULATION, AND AT THE SAME TIME
20-25 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHEAR THE CYCLONE.
THESE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING TO
BEGIN, AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 48-72

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 180834
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 AM PDT FRI OCT 18 2019

...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT BEGINS TO
MEANDER...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.9N 127.1W
ABOUT 1450 MI...2330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST. OCTAVE IS
DRIFTING WEST NEAR 1 MPH (2 KM/H). THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY, AND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 180834
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
0900 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 127.1W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 180234 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 PM PDT THU OCT 17 2019

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE LOCATED NEARLY 1500 MI
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 2.5/35 KT. FURTHERMORE, LATE-ARRIVING ASCAT-C DATA FROM
EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS 35 KT, AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW OCTAVE, THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.

THE TROPICAL STORM UNEXPECTEDLY ACCELERATED SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT HAS SINCE RESUMED A SLOW
WESTWARD CRAWL. OCTAVE IS CAUGHT IN A REGION OF NEARLY ZERO NET
STEERING FLOW, AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. DUE TO OCTAVE'S JUMP TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN GENERALLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION, AND IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS,
BOTH OF WHICH CALL FOR A SLOW LOOPING TRACK THROUGH 120 H.

OCTAVE IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUPPORT SLIGHT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING, AS SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE,
THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST IT HAS ALREADY PEAKED.
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME INHIBITING FACTORS TO THE CYCLONE'S CONVECTION IN
ABOUT 48 H, AND IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON AFTER. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 180234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone located nearly 1500 mi
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become a little better organized. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity
estimate is 2.5/35 kt. Furthermore, late-arriving ASCAT-C data from
earlier today showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors in the northwest
quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the intensity estimate
is 35 kt, and the system is now Octave, the 15th named storm of the
Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The tropical storm unexpectedly accelerated southwestward for a
brief period earlier this afternoon, but it has since resumed a slow
westward crawl. Octave is caught in a region of nearly zero net
steering flow, and is therefore expected to move very little for the
foreseeable future. Due to Octave's jump to the southwest, the NHC
track forecast has been generally adjusted in that direction, and is
based primarily on a blend of the the GFS and ECMWF global models,
both of which call for a slow looping track through 120 h.

Octave is located in an environment that could support slight
additional strengthening, as shown by the statistical guidance,
though the dynamical models suggest it has already peaked.
Upper-level convergence and a drier surrounding environment are
forecast to become inhibiting factors to the cyclone's convection in
about 48 h, and it could become a remnant low soon after. The NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted only slightly to account for
the higher initial intensity and follows the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 9.8N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 180233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
800 PM PDT THU OCT 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORMS...
...FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR DAYS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 127.2W
ABOUT 1455 MI...2345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST. OCTAVE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). THE TROPICAL STORM WILL
LIKELY MEANDER WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, BUT WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BEGIN BY FRIDAY AND OCTAVE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 180233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 127.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 172033 RRA
TCDEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
200 PM PDT THU OCT 17 2019

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE MUCH IMPROVED
CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF PROMINENT CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS IN THE
EAST SEMICIRCLE AND RECENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH COLD CLOUD
TOPS OF -70C NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT, AND ADVISORIES
ARE BEING INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HAZY. HOWEVER, ALL OF THE LARGE-
SCALE MODELS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW
ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE
INHIBITING CONTRIBUTION APPEARS TO BE A RATHER DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS, MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND
REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE WEAKENING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND
REMAINING EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ).
CONSEQUENTLY, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
INTO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS, THEN WEAKENING BACK TO A
DEPRESSION IN 36 HOURS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS OR LESS, AS
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS.

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE A RATHER UNPREDICTABLE SLOW DRIFT
WITHIN WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS WHILE ATTACHED TO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 172033
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and a series of microwave overpasses
indicate that the area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
developed a well-defined center of circulation. The much improved
cloud pattern consists of prominent convective curved bands in the
east semicircle and recent bursts of deep convection with cold cloud
tops of -70C near the center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both
TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 30 kt, and advisories
are being initiated on a tropical depression at this time.

The intensity forecast is a bit hazy. However, all of the large-
scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show
only slight intensification through the 72 hour period. The
inhibiting contribution appears to be a rather dry low- to mid-level
surrounding environment. Beyond 72 hours, most of the global and
regional models show the cyclone weakening into a remnant low and
remaining embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for only modest strengthening
into a tropical storm in 12 hours, then weakening back to a
depression in 36 hours. Through the remainder of the forecast, the
cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days or less, as
the global guidance shows.

The initial motion appears to be a rather unpredictable slow drift
within weak low- to mid-level steering currents while attached to
the ITCZ. The global models are unanimous in maintaining an
erratic looping track pattern through the entire period, and the
official forecast follows suit, based primarily on a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF deterministic models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 10.1N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 10.3N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 10.8N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 11.4N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 11.6N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z 11.7N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 172033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 126.5W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2265 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E was located near latitude 10.1 North, longitude 126.5
West. The depression is drifting toward the west near 2 mph
(4 km/h). The system is forecast to meander with little net motion
expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected, and the cyclone is likely to become
a tropical storm by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 172033
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019
2100 UTC THU OCT 17 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 126.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 126.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 126.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.8N 126.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.4N 126.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 11.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 10.9N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 11.7N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 126.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>