Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ERICK-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-07-31 22:00

WTPN31 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 148.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 148.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.7N 152.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.2N 155.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.7N 157.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.3N 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.1N 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7N 169.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 149.0W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z
IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 16:18

WTPN31 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 146.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 146.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.8N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.3N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.9N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.4N 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.6N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.0N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 147.6W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 54 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 09:48

WTPN31 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 145.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 145.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.6N 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.8N 152.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.3N 155.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.4N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.9N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.5N 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 146.5W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 631 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310600Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND
011000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-31 03:37

WTPN31 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 144.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 144.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.5N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1N 149.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.6N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.1N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.1N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.6N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.0N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 145.6W.
31JUL19. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 49 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND
010400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 10:00

WTPN31 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 140.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 140.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.5N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.3N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.9N 147.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.2N 154.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.0N 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 141.6W.
30JUL19. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 924 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
300600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND
311000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 09:05

WTPA41 PHFO 300902 RRA
TCDCP1

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
1100 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

HURRICANE ERICK, WHICH IS THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ENTER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE 2019 HURRICANE SEASON, HAS BEEN SHOWING
SIGNS OF AN EYE TRYING TO EMERGE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW
EVIDENCE OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE 4.0(65
KT) FROM SAB, 4.5(77 KT) FROM HFO, AND 5.0(90 KT) FROM JTWC. THE
LATEST CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 3.9(63 KT). FOR THIS ADVISORY, WE ARE
INTENSIFYING ERICK SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT AS A COMPROMISE, SINCE THE EYE
HAS NOT BECOME CLEARLY DEFINED YET.

THE HURRICANE'S SHORT-TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN 6 HOURS AGO, BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 280/15 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STILL FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TUESDAY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME
SPREAD. THE LATEST ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN FASTER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODELS. FOR THIS ADVISORY, WE HAVE KEPT THE TRACK
FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND ERICK WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. THE LATEST FORECAST AGAIN INDICATES ERICK MAY ATTAIN MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR AS ERICK

>

2019-07-30 09:03

WTPA41 PHFO 300902
TCDCP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062019
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Hurricane Erick, which is the first tropical cyclone to enter the
central Pacific during the 2019 Hurricane Season, has been showing
signs of an eye trying to emerge in conventional infrared satellite
imagery this evening. Microwave images also continue to show
evidence of an eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The
latest intensity estimates from the satellite agencies are 4.0(65
kt) from SAB, 4.5(77 kt) from HFO, and 5.0(90 kt) from JTWC. The
latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 3.9(63 kt). For this advisory, we are
intensifying Erick slightly to 70 kt as a compromise, since the eye
has not become clearly defined yet.

The hurricane's short-term motion appears to be slightly slower
than 6 hours ago, but the longer-term motion is 280/15 kt for this
advisory. The mid-level ridge to the north is still forecast to
weaken Tuesday, which is expected to cause a slower forward motion
toward the west-northwest. The track guidance continues to have some
spread. The latest ECMWF and its ensemble mean remain faster than
the rest of the models. For this advisory, we have kept the track
forecast similar to the previous package.

We continue to believe that the environment around Erick will remain
conducive for additional intensification during the next 36-48
hours. The latest forecast again indicates Erick may attain major
hurricane status during the next couple of days. The circulation
around a broad upper-level trough in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands will likely cause a significant increase in shear as Erick
continues to move toward the west-northwest beyond 48 hours.
Therefore, this advisory continues to show rapid weakening during
the 2 to 3 day time frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 13.1N 141.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 18.0N 162.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-07-30 08:48

WTPA31 PHFO 300845
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
1100 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

...HURRICANE ERICK INTENSIFIES AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC FAR EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 141.4W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1225 MI...1970 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.4 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED STARTING BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-07-30 08:40

WTPA21 PHFO 300837 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 110SE 90SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 140.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

>

2019-07-30 08:38

WTPA21 PHFO 300837
TCMCP1

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 110SE 90SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 140.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 141.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-07-30 08:37

WTPA21 PHFO 300835 RRA
TCMCP1

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 110SE 90SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 140.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

>

2019-07-30 08:35

WTPA21 PHFO 300835
TCMCP1

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062019
0900 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 110SE 90SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 141.4W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 140.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 143.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.3N 145.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.9N 147.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.4N 149.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.2N 154.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 141.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON



>

2019-07-30 03:14

WTPN31 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 139.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 139.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1N 142.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.9N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.6N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.2N 148.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.0N 153.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.7N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.7N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 140.3W.
30JUL19. HURRICANE 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1004 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-30 03:02

WTPZ41 KNHC 300258 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

CORRECTED CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WEB LINK

ERICK HAS FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE DATA
INDICATE THAT A RAGGED EYE IS PRESENT, AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE SATELLITE AGENCIES AGREE ON
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT, SO THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY WIND
SPEED. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND ERICK
COULD STILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS DURING THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALMOST
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAPID WEAKENING IN
THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT,
SHOWING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST RECENTLY, BUT A
LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 280/16. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN TOMORROW BUT STAY IN PLACE, CAUSING A
SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE DIVERGENT
TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODELS. IT IS NOTABLE, HOWEVER, THAT THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN DOING A RATHER POOR JOB ON THE TRACK AS THEY ALL HAVE BEEN
BIASED TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS,
THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS STILL
BEHIND THE ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST CONTINUITY.

>

2019-07-30 03:01

WTPZ41 KNHC 300258 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Corrected Central Pacific Hurricane Center web link

Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data
indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been
increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on
an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind
speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for
continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick
could still attain major hurricane status during that time.
Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost
all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in
the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit,
showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory.

The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a
longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north
is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a
slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent
tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than
the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models
have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been
biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus,
the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous
one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still
behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity.

This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is
crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-30 02:59

WTPZ31 KNHC 300257 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

CORRECTED CENTRAL PACIFIC HURICANE CENTER WEB LINK

...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 140.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.0 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO START LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE

>

2019-07-30 02:59

WTPZ31 KNHC 300257 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 11...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Corrected Central Pacific Huricane Center web link

...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 140.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 140.0 West. Erick is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwest course at a
slower forward speed is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours before weakening is predicted to start late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1,
WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at
http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-30 02:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

ERICK HAS FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE DATA
INDICATE THAT A RAGGED EYE IS PRESENT, AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE SATELLITE AGENCIES AGREE ON
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT, SO THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY WIND
SPEED. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CONDUCIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS, AND ERICK
COULD STILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS DURING THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALMOST
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAPID WEAKENING IN
THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT,
SHOWING A MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST RECENTLY, BUT A
LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 280/16. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN TOMORROW BUT STAY IN PLACE, CAUSING A
SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE DIVERGENT
TONIGHT WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE REST OF THE MODELS. IT IS NOTABLE, HOWEVER, THAT THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN DOING A RATHER POOR JOB ON THE TRACK AS THEY ALL HAVE BEEN
BIASED TOO SLOW AND POLEWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS,
THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE, ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS STILL
BEHIND THE ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST CONTINUITY.

THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON ERICK SINCE THE HURRICANE IS

>

2019-07-30 02:43

WTPZ31 KNHC 300240 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST MON JUL 29 2019

...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 140.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.0 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO START LATE WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
(110 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE

>

2019-07-30 02:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 300240
TCDEP1

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Erick has finally become a hurricane. Microwave and visible data
indicate that a ragged eye is present, and deep convection has been
increasing near the center. All of the satellite agencies agree on
an initial intensity of 65 kt, so that will be the advisory wind
speed. The environment is expected to generally be conducive for
continued intensification during the next 36-48 hours, and Erick
could still attain major hurricane status during that time.
Thereafter, a significant increase in shear is predicted by almost
all of the guidance. This is a strong signal for rapid weakening in
the 2-3 day time frame, and the official forecast follows suit,
showing a more rapid weakening than the previous advisory.

The hurricane has been moving faster to the west recently, but a
longer-term motion is 280/16. The mid-level ridge to the north
is still forecast to weaken tomorrow but stay in place, causing a
slower west-northwestward track. Track guidance is more divergent
tonight with the ECMWF and its ensemble considerably faster than
the rest of the models. It is notable, however, that the models
have been doing a rather poor job on the track as they all have been
biased too slow and poleward during the past couple of days. Thus,
the new forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous
one, on the western side of the model consensus, but is still
behind the ECMWF guidance for forecast continuity.

This is the last NHC advisory on Erick since the hurricane is
crossing 140W and moving into the central Pacific basin. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 12.7N 140.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.4W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-30 02:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 300239 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

>

2019-07-30 02:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 300240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

...ERICK BECOMES A HURRICANE AND HEADS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 140.0W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 140.0 West. Erick is moving
toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A west-northwest course at a
slower forward speed is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours before weakening is predicted to start late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1,
WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-30 02:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 300239
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC TUE JUL 30 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 140.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.1N 142.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 144.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.6N 146.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N 157.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 161.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 140.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO
HEADER WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-29 21:46

WTPN31 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (ERICK) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 137.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 137.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.2N 140.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.8N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.6N 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.3N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.0N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.5N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.5N 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 138.6W.
29JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06E (ERICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1091
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND
302200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (FLOSSIE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-07-29 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 292032 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 AM HST MON JUL 29 2019

AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATES THAT ERICK IS
NOT QUITE A HURRICANE YET. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY
MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING, AND THE MID-LEVEL EYE IN MICROWAVE DATA HAS
BEEN INTERMITTENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT IN THIS
ADVISORY.

THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON. THE CORRECTED-
CONSENSUS HCCA AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FSSE CONTINUE TO
BRING ERICK TO NEAR CATEGORY 3 BY 2 DAYS, AND SO DOES THE NHC
FORECAST. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN THE CYCLONE IS IN
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REGION, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES
NOT DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
STEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE ARE NO MODELS SUGGESTING ANY SHARP TURN TO THE
NORTH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED
LITTLE, AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE
AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.7N 138.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W 90 KT 105 MPH

>

2019-07-29 20:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 292031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 AM HST MON JUL 29 2019

...ERICK NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT SHOULD BECOME ONE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 138.4W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1945 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 138.4 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO START ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AND THEN
POTENTIALLY A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-29 20:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 292031 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 137.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-29 20:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 292032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

An average of Dvorak intensity estimates indicates that Erick is
not quite a hurricane yet. The cloud pattern has not changed very
much since this morning, and the mid-level eye in microwave data has
been intermittent. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this
advisory.

The environment continues to be favorable for intensification, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane soon. The corrected-
consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE continue to
bring Erick to near category 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC
forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in
the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly
shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does
not depart significantly from the previous one.

Erick is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt
steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge
is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a
west-northwestward motion of the cyclone with a decrease in
forward speed. There are no models suggesting any sharp turn to the
north during the next 5 days. The NHC track forecast has changed
little, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE
and the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 12.7N 138.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 16.5N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 160.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-29 20:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 292031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
2100 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.4W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 138.4W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 137.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.2N 140.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.8N 143.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.6N 145.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 147.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 17.5N 160.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 138.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-29 14:59

WTPZ41 KNHC 291457 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2019

CONVENTIONAL IR SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND IN
FACT, IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS DETERIORATED SOME. HOWEVER, RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE, AND MOST LIKELY
THIS FEATURE WILL SOON BECOME APPARENT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY.
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF BOTH UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON. THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY MODELS ARE THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA AND THE
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FSSE WHICH BRING ERICK TO CAT 3 BY 2 DAYS, AND SO
DOES THE NHC FORECAST. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHEN
THE CYCLONE IS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC REGION, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT DEPART FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY,
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE. IN ADDITION, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY SHARP TURN TO THE
NORTH IN ANY OF THE TRACK MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED
AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND THE
CORRECTED CONSENSUS HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-07-29 14:59

WTPZ31 KNHC 291456
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 AM HST MON JUL 29 2019

...ERICK SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 136.9W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO START ON
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME SOON
AND THEN POTENTIALLY A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A WEAKENING
TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-29 14:58

WTPZ41 KNHC 291457
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has
not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in
fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent
microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely
this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery.
Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak
numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory.

The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and
Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most
aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the
FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so
does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when
the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter
strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official
forecast does not depart from the previous one.

Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The
cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around
the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly,
and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the
cyclone. In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the
north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged
and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the
corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-29 14:58

WTPZ21 KNHC 291456 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-29 14:57

WTPZ21 KNHC 291456
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1500 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 136.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 136.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>

2019-07-29 08:45

WTPZ41 KNHC 290842 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

THE STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS
TAKEN ON A COMMA SHAPE, WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO AT LEAST -80
DEG C. THERE IS PROMINENT UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW, EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. AN EYE IS NOT YET
EVIDENT IN THE IMAGERY, HOWEVER. ERICK'S CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS SET AT 60 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
SSTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 28 DEG C, WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING. ADDITIONALLY, THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY, NEAR 70 PERCENT, OF RAPID
STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS, WITH THE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA, AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, FSSE, ALONG WITH THE HWRF MODEL SIMULATION.

ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, OR AROUND 270/14 KT. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY WESTWARD
TRACK. THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 36-72 HOURS, BUT WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWARD
EXCURSIONS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL

>

2019-07-29 08:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 290842
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

The storm's cloud pattern is becoming better organized and has
taken on a comma shape, with very cold cloud tops to at least -80
deg C. There is prominent upper-tropospheric outflow, except over
the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. An eye is not yet
evident in the imagery, however. Erick's current intensity
estimate is set at 60 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak
estimates from UW-CIMSS. The dynamical guidance indicates that the
vertical shear will remain below 10 kt for the next 48 hours and
SSTs should remain near 28 deg C, which would favor steady
strengthening. Additionally, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
continues to show a high probability, near 70 percent, of rapid
strengthening. Thus the official wind speed forecast shows a
significant increase during the next 1 to 2 days, with the system
predicted to attain major hurricane status within that time frame.
This is in agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, and the FSU
Superensemble guidance, FSSE, along with the HWRF model simulation.

Erick continues to move westward, or around 270/14 kt. A mid-level
ridge is predicted to remain to the north of the tropical cyclone
over the next several days which should maintain a mainly westward
track. The track models suggest a slight bend toward the
west-northwest in 36-72 hours, but with no substantial northward
excursions. The new official track forecast is quite similar to
the previous one, and is a little south of the latest dynamical
model consensus. It should be noted that the latest ECMWF model run
shows a track that is even a little farther to the south.

The wind radii have been adjusted based on data from a recent
ASCAT-C overpass which depicted a slightly larger storm than
previously estimated.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 11.7N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-07-29 08:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 290841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

...ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 134.5W
ABOUT 1475 MI...2375 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 134.5 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO START ON TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, WITH ERICK LIKELY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON MONDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-29 08:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 290840 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 134.5W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 134.5W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-29 08:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 290840
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0900 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 134.5W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 134.5W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 134.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



>

2019-07-29 02:53

WTPZ41 KNHC 290251 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH ERICK DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. FIRST, AS FORESHADOWED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS
RE-FORMED UNDER A VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. SECOND, THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED, WITH A CDO-LIKE FEATURE FORMING NEAR THE CENTER AND
A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CURVED BANDING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. ERICK APPEARS TO BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 55
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ESTIMATES FROM TAFB,
SAB AND THE CIMSS ADT.

THIS IS ONE OF THESE RARE FORECASTS WHERE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND A
REASON NOT TO PREDICT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM WATER
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE EARLIER FORECASTS WERE CONCERNED
ABOUT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, THE SOUTHWARD REFORMATION WILL PROBABLY
HELP INSULATE THE STORM FROM THAT INFLUENCE, ALONG WITH THE VERY LOW
SHEAR LIMITING MIXING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO LOW-LEVEL RING PRESENT
YET IN THE LATEST 37 GHZ MICROWAVE CHANNEL, THIS SIGNAL CAN BE BOTH
BEFORE AND/OR CONCURRENT WITH RAPID STRENGTHENING. NOTABLY, THE
SHIPS-RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS SHOWING ABOUT A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BOTH A 30-KT INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A 55-KT
RISE IN 48 HOURS. IT'S PRETTY HARD TO IGNORE THE SIGNAL FROM THAT

>

2019-07-29 02:52

WTPZ41 KNHC 290251
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

There have been some significant changes with Erick during the past
several hours. First, as foreshadowed in the previous advisory,
microwave and scatterometer data indicate that the center has
re-formed under a very strong convective cluster farther to the
south. Second, the overall cloud pattern has become much better
organized, with a CDO-like feature forming near the center and
a notable increase in curved banding in the southern and western
quadrants of the storm. Erick appears to be in the beginning stages
of rapid intensification, and the intensity will be increased to 55
kt for this advisory based on a consensus of estimates from TAFB,
SAB and the CIMSS ADT.

This is one of these rare forecasts where it is difficult to find a
reason not to predict rapid intensification. Erick is expected to
be in an environment of very low vertical wind shear and warm water
during the next 48 hours. While earlier forecasts were concerned
about mid-level dry air, the southward reformation will probably
help insulate the storm from that influence, along with the very low
shear limiting mixing. Although there is no low-level ring present
yet in the latest 37 gHz microwave channel, this signal can be both
before and/or concurrent with rapid strengthening. Notably, the
SHIPS-rapid intensification index is showing about a 70 percent
chance of both a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours and a 55-kt
rise in 48 hours. It's pretty hard to ignore the signal from that
model, considering these are values you might see a few times a
year. In addition, dynamical models have also come up sharply from
the previous cycle, and three typically reliable models now show
Erick becoming a major hurricane. Thus, the new NHC intensity
forecast is considerably higher than the previous one through 48
hours, at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, and just a little
above the corrected-consensus models. The forecast after that time
required little adjustment, as a combination of higher shear and dry
air aloft should contribute to steady weakening by the end of the
forecast period.

After accounting for the center re-formation, the initial motion
estimate is 270/14 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is
forecast during the next couple of days as a ridge weakens to the
north, then a turn back to the west is anticipated due to Erick
weakening and the ridge slightly strengthening. Model guidance
remains in very good agreement this evening, with no significant
outlier solutions. While the new track forecast has been shifted
southwest of the previous one, it is mostly due to the center
re-formation, and the forecast continues to be close to the eastern
Pacific model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 11.7N 133.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 152.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 16.5N 157.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-29 02:51

WTPZ31 KNHC 290248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

...ERICK STRENGTHENING, EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 133.1W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2515 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 133.1 West. Erick is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Monday. A turn to the west-northwest
and a slower forward speed is expected to start on Tuesday and last
through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, with Erick likely becoming a hurricane on Monday, and
potentially a major hurricane on Tuesday. Some weakening is
forecast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-07-29 02:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 290247 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 132.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-07-29 02:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 290247
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC MON JUL 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 132.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.5N 157.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 133.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-07-28 20:49

WTPZ41 KNHC 282047 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

ALTHOUGH ERICK'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED MUCH. THE EARLIER INCREASE
IN CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN WANING SOMEWHAT IN RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE CENTER HAS MADE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD JOG, POSSIBLY
DUE TO REFORMATION CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT
FROM SAB. AN 1807Z PARTIAL ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A
36-KT VECTOR IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND ALLOWING FOR SOME
UNDERSAMPLING ALSO SUPPORTS THE 40-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
INITIAL POSITION COULD BE TOO FAR NORTH, AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT MAY
BE REQUIRED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL TREND IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS ERICK
MOVES INTO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 72 HOURS
AND BEYOND, THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO FILL WITH THE NARROW RIDGE
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE ERICK ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
ERICK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN TUESDAY

>

2019-07-28 20:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 282046
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

...ERICK GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 131.3W
ABOUT 1665 MI...2680 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 131.3 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND ERICK IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-28 20:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 282046 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.3W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.3W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.5N 139.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 142.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 146.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 150.9W

>

2019-07-28 20:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 282047
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

Although Erick's upper-level outflow has continued to improve, the
overall convective pattern hasn't changed much. The earlier increase
in central convection has been waning somewhat in recent satellite
imagery, and the low-level center remains displaced just north of
the central convection. However, passive microwave imagery indicates
that the center has made a slight west-southwestward jog, possibly
due to reformation closer to the strongest convection. The initial
intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt
from SAB. An 1807Z partial ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated a
36-kt vector in the northeastern quadrant, and allowing for some
undersampling also supports the 40-kt initial intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 270/15 kt. It is possible that the
initial position could be too far north, and a southward shift may
be required on the next advisory. However, the general trend in the
model guidance remains a westward motion for the next 24 hours or
so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as Erick
moves into a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge. By 72 hours
and beyond, the weakness is forecast to fill with the narrow ridge
building westward across the Hawaiian Islands. This is expected to
force Erick on a general westward to west-northwestward track
through the remainder of the forecast period. On the forecast track,
Erick is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin Tuesday
morning. The new NHC forecast track has again been shifted south of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly
initial position, and lies down the center of the tightly packed
guidance envelope and is close to a blend of the consensus track
models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN.

The aforementioned ASCAT-A pass indicated that Erick has maintained
a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 20 nmi. The small
RMW, low vertical wind shear, and SSTs near 28 deg C continue to
support at least steady strengthening for the next few days, and
Erick is forecast to become a hurricane in 36 hours. Although rapid
intensification (RI) remains a possibility owing to the small RMW
and low shear, the recent pronounced dry mid-level intrusion into
the inner-core region, along with mid-level shear undercutting the
other favorable outflow pattern, is expected to hinder any RI for at
least the next 24 hours. By 72 hours, strong westerly vertical wind
shear is forecast to affect the cyclone, inducing a steady weakening
trend through the 120-h period. The latest Navy COAMPS model has
backed off slightly and is now forecasting Erick to become a
high-end category-3 hurricane in about 72 hours. However, this
scenario has again been disregarded due to the abundance of dry
mid-level air expected to affect the cyclone. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and closely
follows the HCCA corrected consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 12.0N 131.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 13.5N 139.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 14.1N 142.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 15.3N 146.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 16.2N 150.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 16.8N 155.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-28 20:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 282046
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
2100 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.3W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 131.3W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 130.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.5N 139.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.1N 142.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.3N 146.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.2N 150.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 16.8N 155.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 131.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2019-07-28 14:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 281439 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH THE MAIN CLOUD MASS DISPLACED INTO THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR. A
LATE-ARRIVING 0615Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH PASSIVE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POSITIONED
NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND
IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED ONLY A FEW 33-KT
SURFACE WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH 35-KT DVORAK
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15 KT. A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG HAS OCCURRED
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. HOWEVER, RESUMPTION OF THE EARLIER BASE
MOTION OF 280 DEGREES IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHEN THE SHEAR
DECREASES AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL.
OVERALL, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK RATIONALE. A NARROW BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP ERICK MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ERICK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC BASIN ON TUESDAY, AND THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN

>

2019-07-28 14:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 281439
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 AM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

The convective cloud pattern has changed little overall since the
previous advisory, with the main cloud mass displaced into the
southern semicircle due to some northerly mid-level shear. A
late-arriving 0615Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass along with passive
microwave imagery indicate that the low-level center is positioned
near the northern edge of the central convective cloud mass.
However, the upper-level outflow has continued to improve and expand
in all quadrants. The scatterometer pass showed only a few 33-kt
surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant, so the advisory
intensity remains at 35 kt, which is in agreement with 35-kt Dvorak
satellite estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 275/15 kt. A slight westward jog has occurred
during the past 6 hours, likely due to the southward shift in the
convective cloud mass. However, resumption of the earlier base
motion of 280 degrees is expected later today when the shear
decreases and the convective cloud pattern becomes more symmetrical.
Overall, there is no significant change to the previous forecast
track rationale. A narrow but well-defined low to mid-level ridge is
forecast by the global models to build westward across the Hawaiian
Islands through the entire forecast period, which is expected to
keep Erick moving generally westward to slightly west-northwestward.
On the forecast track, Erick is expected to cross into the Central
Pacific basin on Tuesday, and the new NHC model guidance remains in
good agreement on this track scenario. The new official forecast
track is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due
to the more southerly initial position, and lies close to a blend of
the consensus track models HCCA and TVCE.

Convective banding has started to increase during the past few
hours, along with the development of a small CDO feature. The
aforementioned ASCAT-C pass revealed that Erick has a small radius
of maximum winds (RMW) of about 20 nmi. The small RMW, low vertical
wind shear of about 5 kt, and SSTs near 28C support at least steady
strengthening at a typical climatological rate of 20 kt per 24 hours
for the next 2-3 days. As a result, Erick is forecast to become a
hurricane in 36 hours. Although rapid intensification (RI) is a
possibility due to the small RMW and low shear, a dry mid-level
environment is expected to hinder RI through 72 hours when stronger
vertical wind shear is forecast to affect the cyclone and disrupt
the intensification process. Thereafter, steady weakening
due to westerly wind shear increasing to more than 20 kt is
expected, resulting in Erick becoming a tropical storm by 120 hours.
It is worth mentioning that although the Navy COAMPS model is
forecasting Erick to become a category-4 hurricane by 72 hours, this
scenario has been disregarded at this time due to the abundance of
dry mid-level surrounding cyclone. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the previous NHC advisory, and closely follows the
HCCA corrected consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 12.3N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.6N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.6N 137.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 14.3N 140.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 15.6N 145.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 17.1N 154.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-07-28 14:41

WTPZ31 KNHC 281439
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 AM HST SUN JUL 28 2019

...ERICK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY LATE
MONDAY OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 129.8W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-28 14:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 281438 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 132.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.6N 137.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 140.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 145.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W

>

2019-07-28 14:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 281438
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 129.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 132.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.6N 137.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.3N 140.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 145.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 154.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 129.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-07-28 08:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 280833 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2019

ERICK'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF INCREASED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT,
SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW. AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE STORM, AND WATER TEMPERATURES
ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR INTENSIFICATION. APPARENTLY, ERICK HAS
NOT YET ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE BUT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR RATHER SOON. THEREFORE, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY
MODELS ALONG WITH THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS SHOW THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS, SO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE EARLIER NHC PREDICTIONS AND IS
NEAR OR BELOW THE CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 TO 5,
INCREASED SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST, OR
280/14 KT. THE STEERING SCENARIO IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF ERICK THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN, AND THIS COULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION TO
DEVELOP. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER, THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE
STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE

>

2019-07-28 08:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 280833
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

Erick's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization over the
past several hours, although there is slight evidence of increased
convective banding over the southern semicircle of the circulation.
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt,
so the advisory intensity is held at 35 kt for now. An upper-level
anticyclone is established over the storm, and water temperatures
are sufficiently warm for intensification. Apparently, Erick has
not yet acquired a well-defined inner core but that is expected
to occur rather soon. Therefore, steady strengthening is likely to
begin within the next 12 hours. Some of the dynamical intensity
models along with the simple and corrected consensus aids show the
system becoming a hurricane within 36 hours, so the official
forecast has been increased from the earlier NHC predictions and is
near or below the consensus through 72 hours. By days 4 to 5,
increased shear and some drier air is likely to cause weakening.

The motion continues to be only slightly north of due west, or
280/14 kt. The steering scenario is fairly straightforward. A
fairly well-defined mid-level ridge is forecast by the global models
to remain established to the north of Erick throughout most of the
forecast period. By the end of the forecast period, this ridge is
likely to weaken, and this could cause a more northward motion to
develop. By that time however, the weakening cyclone should be
steered more by the low-level easterly flow which should keep the
motion on a generally westward or just north of westward heading.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and
close to the corrected dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 12.1N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-07-28 08:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 280831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2019

...ERICK EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 128.1W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1865 MI...3000 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.1 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-28 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 280830 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0900 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 128.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 128.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W

>

2019-07-28 08:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 280830
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0900 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 128.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 128.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.4N 130.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.4N 135.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.4N 143.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.6N 148.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 128.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-07-28 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 280357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2019 0 10.1N 103.0W 1010 21
1200UTC 28.07.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 125.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2019 0 12.4N 125.9W 1008 24
1200UTC 28.07.2019 12 12.2N 129.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 29.07.2019 24 12.4N 132.7W 1007 24
1200UTC 29.07.2019 36 12.5N 135.7W 1005 31
0000UTC 30.07.2019 48 13.1N 138.9W 1002 33
1200UTC 30.07.2019 60 13.7N 141.8W 999 36
0000UTC 31.07.2019 72 14.8N 144.4W 999 39
1200UTC 31.07.2019 84 15.7N 146.7W 998 45
0000UTC 01.08.2019 96 16.5N 148.9W 1001 44
1200UTC 01.08.2019 108 17.0N 151.4W 1004 38
0000UTC 02.08.2019 120 17.6N 153.8W 1006 33
1200UTC 02.08.2019 132 17.5N 156.3W 1008 34
0000UTC 03.08.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 121.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2019 60 13.0N 121.5W 1004 27
0000UTC 31.07.2019 72 13.2N 125.0W 1002 29
1200UTC 31.07.2019 84 13.6N 128.1W 1000 35
0000UTC 01.08.2019 96 14.6N 131.5W 999 38
1200UTC 01.08.2019 108 15.7N 135.2W 1000 40
0000UTC 02.08.2019 120 17.4N 138.9W 1002 36
1200UTC 02.08.2019 132 18.9N 142.2W 1003 37
0000UTC 03.08.2019 144 20.6N 145.1W 1005 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 115.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2019 108 10.9N 115.1W 1007 28
0000UTC 02.08.2019 120 10.9N 118.6W 1002 40
1200UTC 02.08.2019 132 11.1N 121.9W 1002 39
0000UTC 03.08.2019 144 11.2N 124.9W 1003 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280357

>

2019-07-28 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 280357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2019 10.1N 103.0W WEAK
12UTC 28.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ERICK ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 125.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.07.2019 12.4N 125.9W WEAK
12UTC 28.07.2019 12.2N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2019 12.4N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2019 12.5N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2019 13.1N 138.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2019 13.7N 141.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2019 14.8N 144.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 15.7N 146.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 16.5N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 17.0N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 17.6N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 17.5N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.0N 121.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.07.2019 13.0N 121.5W WEAK
00UTC 31.07.2019 13.2N 125.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2019 13.6N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2019 14.6N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2019 15.7N 135.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2019 17.4N 138.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2019 18.9N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 20.6N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 115.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.08.2019 10.9N 115.1W WEAK
00UTC 02.08.2019 10.9N 118.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2019 11.1N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2019 11.2N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280357

>

2019-07-28 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 280233 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2019

AN ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN AREA OF
35-KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM'S CIRCULATION,
WHICH LED TO UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ERICK IN
AN UPDATE JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE
OVERALL PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AVERAGES
FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE MOTION OF ERICK IS 280/15 KT, DRIVEN BY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO
THE NORTH OF THE ERICK, WITH ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOTION JUST NORTH OF
WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN A FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF ERICK.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE RUNS SHIFTED BACK NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS, AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED ONLY A
LITTLE NORTH TO LIE ESSENTIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ERICK TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS, WITH THE ONLY CURRENT INHIBITING FACTOR IS
THAT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. HOW FAST THIS
INNER CORE CONSOLIDATES WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN THE PACE OF
INTENSIFICATION OF ERICK IN THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON EXPECTATION
THAT THE INNER CORE WILL CONSOLIDATE, THE NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY

>

2019-07-28 02:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 280232 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

>

2019-07-28 02:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 280233
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 PM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

An ASCAT-C scatterometer overpass this afternoon showed an area of
35-kt winds over the eastern semicircle of the system's circulation,
which led to upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Erick in
an update just after the previous official advisory was issued. The
overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past
several hours, and the latest satellite intensity estimate averages
from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the system at 35 kt for this
advisory.

The motion of Erick is 280/15 kt, driven by strong mid-level ridging
to the north of the cyclone. This ridging is forecast to persist to
the north of the Erick, with only slight weakening expected later in
the forecast period. This will result in a motion just north of
west with a slight decrease in forward speed in a few days. Model
guidance is in very good agreement on the forecast track of Erick.
The latest guidance runs shifted back northward slightly from their
previous runs, and the latest official forecast was nudged only a
little north to lie essentially in the middle of the tightly
clustered track guidance.

Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over
the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is
that the system lacks a well-defined inner core. How fast this
inner core consolidates will be a key factor in the pace of
intensification of Erick in the short term. Based on expectation
that the inner core will consolidate, the NHC official intensity
forecast has been increased through 96 hours to follow the trends in
the intensity guidance. It should be noted that some of the more
reliable dynamical guidance is suggesting that Erick could intensify
more than indicated in this favorable environment. By about 96
hours, Erick should begin to weaken as it is expected to begin
moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly shear, with
SHIPS guidance indicating over 20 kt of shear by day 5. And, at
this same time dry air surrounding the system may begin to entrain
into the storm's circulation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven

>

2019-07-28 02:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 280232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2019

...ERICK HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 126.8W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1955 MI...3145 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.8 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED, AND ERIC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-07-28 02:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 280232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
0300 UTC SUN JUL 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 126.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 131.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.1N 134.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.7N 137.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 126.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN

>

2019-07-27 21:14

WTPZ61 KNHC 272110
TCUEP1

TROPICAL STORM ERICK TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
215 PM PDT SAT JUL 27 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...

SATELLITE OCEAN SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX-E HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERICK WITH WINDS NEAR 40 MPH
(65 KM/H). TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 20 MILES
(30 KM) TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.


SUMMARY OF 215 PM PDT...2115 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 125.3W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2055 MI...3305 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-07-27 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 272031 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1100 AM HST SAT JUL 27 2019

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER THIS
MORNING. GOES-17 VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION'S
CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH, YET THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS A CENTRAL AREA OF
CONVECTION AND SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM IS AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND IF THIS
IS CONFIRMED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE THE
NEXT ADVISORY.

A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER,
WITH THE FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY PUSHING THE DEPRESSION
QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 280/16 KT. THE RIDGING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, THUS THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH DAY 5, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD
SPEED. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THEM LIE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST
HAS THEREFORE BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD, BUT IT LIES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS,
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE BEING GENERALLY
BETWEEN 27 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THEREFORE, STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH THE TREND COULD BE GRADUAL IN THE SHORT TERM

>

2019-07-27 20:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 272031
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this
morning. GOES-17 visible imagery suggests that the depression's
center is embedded within an elongated northeast-to-southwest
oriented trough, yet the cyclone also has a central area of
convection and some convective banding. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB.
It should be noted that just-received ASCAT data suggests the
possibility the system is at tropical storm strength, and if this
is confirmed a Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued before the
next advisory.

A strong mid-level high is centered over the U.S./Mexico border,
with the flow on its southern periphery pushing the depression
quickly westward with a motion of 280/16 kt. The ridging is not
expected to break down much during the forecast period, thus the
cyclone is expected to maintain a westward or west-northwestward
motion through day 5, with perhaps some slowing of its forward
speed. The track models are tightly clustered, although most of
them lie south of the previous official forecast. The new forecast
has therefore been adjusted southward, but it lies along the
northern edge of the guidance envelope.

Vertical shear is expected to be low for at least the next 4 days,
with sea surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone being generally
between 27 and 29 degrees Celsius. Therefore, strengthening is
anticipated, although the trend could be gradual in the short term
while the cyclone attempts to form a more symmetric circulation.
The updated NHC official intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN
model consensus, bringing the system to tropical storm strength by
tonight and then to hurricane strength on Tuesday. If the
circulation becomes more well defined sooner, then the cyclone
could strengthen a little more than indicated in the forecast, as
suggested by the HWRF and HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Taylor

>

2019-07-27 20:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 272030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 125.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 124.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 11.8N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.2N 130.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.2N 135.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.3N 140.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 15.6N 145.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 16.7N 150.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

..
FORECASTER BERG/TAYLOR

>

2019-07-27 14:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 271433
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
500 AM HST SAT JUL 27 2019

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION, AND IS NOW
CLASSIFIED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
T2.0 DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SSTS. DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENT,
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE MODELS AND IS ABOVE
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND REACH HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KT. SINCE THIS
STEERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
THE NEXT 5 DAYS, PERHAPS WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
VERY NEAR THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

..
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-07-27 14:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 271433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019
500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 123.8W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2160 MI...3475 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Depression Six-E was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude
123.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30
km/h). This motion with a gradual turn to the west-northwest and a
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-07-27 14:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 271432
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062019
1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 123.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



>