Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-03-15 12:14

WTIO24 FMEE 151215
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IDAI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 33.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
40 MN OFFSHORE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES NEAR BEIRA.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 32.7 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING.=

>

2019-03-15 06:29

WTIO24 FMEE 150628
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IDAI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 34.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, EXTENDING
UP TO 50 NM OFFSHORE THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTINES WITHIN BEIRA AREA.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
18.6 S / 33.1 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 32.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-15 06:23

WTIO24 FMEE 150624
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IDAI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 34.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 60
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
18.6 S / 33.1 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 32.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-15 06:13

WTIO24 FMEE 150609
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 11 (IDAI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 34.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP
TO 200 MN WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, EXTENDING
UP TO 50 NM IN THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES WITHIN BEIRA AREA.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
18.6 S / 33.1 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
18.4 S / 32.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-15 00:57

WTIO31 FMEE 150030 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 34.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

>

2019-03-15 00:57

WTIO30 FMEE 150030 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 34.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

>

2019-03-15 00:54

WTIO31 FMEE 150030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 34.8 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE QUATRE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'IDAI A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER LORS DE
SON ATTERRISSAGE. L'OEIL TOUJOURS BIEN DEFINI S'EST CONTRACTE ET LA
CEINTURE CONVECTIVE ETAIT PLUS FROIDE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, LES
SOMMETS ONT COMMENCE A SE RECHAUFFER SIGNE DU DEBUT D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
PAR INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES. L'INTENSITE A L'ATTERRISSAGE A DONC
ETE MAINTENU A 90KT. PAR AILLEURS UNE PASSE SMAP PARTIELLE DONNAIT
89KT A 16Z DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

A 00Z, L'OEIL EST PRESQUE ENTIEREMENT AU DESSUS DES TERRES. LA VILLE
DE BEIRA SE SITUE ENCORE DANS L'OEIL DU CYCLONE A UNE DIZAINE DE KM
AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE. LE MUR DE L'OEIL DEVRAIT ARRIVER DANS LES
PROCHAINES MINUTES.

IDAI EST TOUJOURS UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX. LES HABITANTS DE
LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, IDAI VA CONTINUER DE S'ENFONCER DANS
LES TERRES EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT RAPIDEMENT. IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST ET PASSER LA FRONTIERE AVEC LE
ZIMBABWE EN FIN DE JOURNEE. BIEN QUE LES VENTS VONT FAIBLIR
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT, LES RESTES DE LA CIRCULATION D'IDAI POURRAIENT
PERSISTER PLUSIEURS JOURS APPORTANT DE FORTES PLUIES SUR LE ZIMBABWE
ET LA REGION FRONTALIERE AVEC LE MOZAMBIQUE JUSQU'EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE.=

>

2019-03-15 00:54

WTIO30 FMEE 150030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 34.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 32.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

IDAI CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WHILE LANDFALLING. THE STILL
WELL DEFINED EYE SHRANK AND THE CONVECTIVE BELT GOT COLDER. ON THE
LAST IMAGES, CLOUD TOPS STARTED TO WARM UP DUE THE INTERACTION WITH
THE LANDMASS. LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS THUS MAINTAINED TO 90KT.
MOREOVER A PARTIAL SMAP SWATH SHOWED WINDS RANGING UP TO 89KT IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

A 00Z, IDAI'S EYE IS ALMOST TOTALLY OVER LAND. BEIRA IS STILL LOCATED
IN THE EYE, A DOZEN KILOMETERS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN ITS SOUTH-EAST.
THE EYEWALL SHOULD REACH THE CITY IN THE NEXT MINUTES.

IDAI IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE . THE
INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL
RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE MOZAMBICAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OVER THE NEXT HOURS, IDAI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING. IT SHOULD KEEP IT WEST-NORTH-WEST TRACK AND REACH THE
BORDER WITH THE ZIMBABWE BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. EVEN IF THE
WINDS WILL DECAY SIGNIFICANTLY, THE REMAINS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS, BRINGING HEAVY RAINS ON THE
ZIMBABWE AND THE BORDER AREA WITH MOZAMBIQUE UP TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.=

>

2019-03-15 00:23

WTIO24 FMEE 150024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 34.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
19.2 S / 33.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
18.7 S / 32.1 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-14 19:38

WTIO31 FMEE 141842 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 35.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

>

2019-03-14 19:38

WTIO30 FMEE 141843 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 35.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

>

2019-03-14 19:35

WTIO31 FMEE 141842
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 35.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE CINQ DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'IDAI S'EST AMELIOREE AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES AVEC UN NET REFROIDISSEMENT DE LA CEINTURE
CONVECTIVE AUTOUR DE L'OEIL. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SE SITUE AUTOUR
DE 5.0 SUIVANT LA PRISE EN COMPTE OU NON DE LA GRANDE TAILLE DE
L'OEIL. ETANT DONNE CETTE PHASE D'AMELIORATION, L'INTENSITE DE 90KT
EST MAITENUE.

LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES DE LA JOURNEE SEMBLENT INDIQUER QU'UN SECOND
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL AVAIT DEMARRE EN FIN DE NUIT
DERNIERE, CE QUI PEUT EXPLIQUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. DEPUIS, LE MUR
EXTERIEUR EST RENTRE DANS LES TERRES DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. LE
CYCLE DU MUR DE L'OEIL S'EST PEUT ETRE ARRETE AVEC L'INTERACTION AVEC
LES TERRES FAVORISANT PROBABLEMENT LE REGAIN VISUEL.

A 18Z, LE CENTRE D'IDAI SE SITUAIT A ENVRION 75KM DE BEIRA, ET LE
LITTORAL A ENVIRON 40KM AU NORD COMMENCE A RENTRER DANS L'OEIL. LE
CYCLONE A COMMENCE A ORIENTER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST NORD-OUEST
ET DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES,
EN S'ENFONCANT DANS LES TERRES.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE
MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE.

AVEC LE CHANGEMENT DE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST NORD OUEST, LE
SCENARIO DU PIRE SEMBLE TRES PROBABLE. LES DERNIERES PREVISIONS
DONNENT TOUJOURS UNE SURCOTE PRESENTANT UN DANGER MORTEL QUI POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3M50 A 4M SUR LE LITTORAL ET PLUS
DE 6M DANS L'ESTUAIRE DU FLEUVE PUNGWE (ATTENTION: CES VALEURS NE
TIENNENT PAS EN COMPTE DE LA MAREE ET DE LA MONTEE DES EAUX LIEE A LA
HOULE CYCLONIQUE). CE PIC DEVRAIT ETRE ASSOCIEE A LA MAREE HAUTE EN
DEUXIEME PARTIE DE NUIT.=

>

2019-03-14 19:35

WTIO30 FMEE 141843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 35.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0- CI=5.5

IDAI CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR WITH A MUCH COLDER
CONVECTIVE BELT AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 5.0
WHETHER THE SIZE OF THE EYE IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. GIVEN THIS TREND,
INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED TO 90KT.

TODAY MICROWAVE DATA, SHOW THAT A SECOND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
HAD STARTED LATE LAST NIGHT, WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING PHASE.
SINCE, THE OUTER EYEWALL ENTERED INLAND IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE CYCLE PROBABLY STOPPED WHILE INTERRACTING WITH THE
LANDMASS, AND SO HELPED PARTIALLY AT LEAST IN THE VISUAL IMPROVEMENT.

A 18Z, IDAI CENTER IS LOCATED 75KM EAST OF BEIRA. AND THE COASTLINE
40KM NORTH OF BEIRA ENTERED THE EYE. THE CYCLONE STARTED TO BEND
WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THAT DIRECTION WHILE
MOVING INLAND.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE . THE INHABITANTS OF
THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND
MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

WITH THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION, WETS-NORTH-WESTWARDS, THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO IS VERY LIKELY. LAST FORECAST STILL SUGGEST A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 3M50-4M ON THE COASTLINE AND MORE
THAN 6M IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WATER RISE FROM THE CYCLONIC SWELL).
THIS PEAK WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH HE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT.=

>

2019-03-14 18:23

WTIO24 FMEE 141825
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 35.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
19.4 S / 34.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 32.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-14 12:42

WTIO31 FMEE 141219 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

>

2019-03-14 12:42

WTIO30 FMEE 141219 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

>

2019-03-14 12:22

WTIO31 FMEE 141219
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

IDAI A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION EN GROS OEIL BIEN DEFINI. LES SIGNES
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE SONT POURSUIVIS EN COURS DE MATINEE, A
LARGISSEMENT DE L'A IL ET RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX, MAIS
DANS LES TOUTES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELITE, ON ASSISTE A UNE LEGERE
AMELIORATION DE LA PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE, NOUVELLE CONTRACTION DE
L'OEIL ET REFROIDISSEMENT DU CDO. ON A DONC LIMITER LE TAUX
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

UN SOLIDE HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE SITUE
MAINTENANT AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET SE PROLONGE VERS L'OUEST PAR UNE
DORSALE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, IDAI EST PREVU CONTINUER SUR SA
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE
SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES QUI EST PREVU DANS LES PROCHAINES 12H
MAINTENANT. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST TRES
BONNE CONCERNANT LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE, IL RESTE NEANMOINS UNE
FAIBLE DISPERSION DANS LE TIMING, AVEC NOTAMMENT LE MODELE GFS PLUS
LENT QUE LES AUTRES MODELES DISPONIBLES. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE,
IDAI DEVRAIT TRES PROBABLEMENT ATTERRIR DANS UNE ZONE DE 60 KM AUTOUR
DE BEIRA.

LES DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT QUE DU CISAILLEMENT D'EST DE
MOYENNE TROPO POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET CAUSER UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
L'ETRE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE
MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE.

SUR LA PREVISION ACTUELLE ET EN UTILISANT UN CHAMP DE VENT PREVU AVEC
LE MODELE AROME, UNE SURCOTE PRESENTANT UN DANGER MORTEL POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3M50 A 4M AU NIVEAU DE BEIRA ET
5M50-6M DANS L'ESTUAIRE DU FLEUVE PUNGWE (ATTENTION: CES VALEURS NE
TIENNENT PAS EN COMPTE DE LA MAREE ET DE LA MONTEE DES EAUX LIEE A LA
HOULE CYCLONIQUE). ETANT DONNE LA DISPERSION DES PREVISIONS
CONCERNANT LE TIMING DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA SURCOTE MAXIMALE POURRAIT
SE FAIRE EN PHASE AVEC LA MAXIMUM DE LA MARA E. SI LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE DEVAIT SE CONFIRMER, ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE AU SCENARIO DU PIRE
POUR LA REGION DE BEIRA.=

>

2019-03-14 12:22

WTIO30 FMEE 141219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 31.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

IDAI HAS MAINTAINED ITS WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE PATTERN. THE SIGNS OF
WEAKENING HAS GONE ON DURING THE MORNING, BUT THE LAST SATELITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT IMPROVE OF THE CLOUD PRESENTATION WITH A EYE
CONTRACTION AND A A COLDER CDO. SO THE WEAKEING RATE HAS BEEN REDUCE.

A SOLID LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARDS. ON THIS PATTERN, IDAI
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS GENERAL WESTWARDS TRACK TODAY UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
12HOURS NOW. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY GOOD
INTO THE AREA OF LANDFALL, HOWEVER IT REMAINS A LOW DISPERSION IN THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL WITH GFS GUIDANCE SLOWER THAN THE OTHERS AVAILABLE
MODELS. ON THIS TRACK, IDAI SHOULD VERY LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL IN A 60
KM AREA AROUND BEIRA.

LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME EASTERLY MID-SHEAR MAY
INCREASE TODAY AND THAT COULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TODAY BEFORE THE
LANDFALL.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
UNTIL THE LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED
TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED
BY THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND BASED ON FORECAST WINDFIELDS FROM
AROME, SOME LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 3M50-4M IS POSSIBLE AT
BEIRA REACHING 5M50-6M IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE
DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WATER RISE FROM THE
CYCLONIC SWELL). DUE TO THE DISPERSION IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL,
MAXIMUM OF STORM SURGE MAY HAPPEN IN TUNE WITH THE MAXIMUM OF THE
TIDE. IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS CONFIRMED, THIS COULD BE A WORST CASE
SCENARIO FOR THE BEIRA AREA.=

>

2019-03-14 12:13

WTIO24 FMEE 141214
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 36.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
19.8 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 32.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-14 07:06

WTIO31 FMEE 140624 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 37.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-14 07:06

WTIO30 FMEE 140624 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 37.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-14 07:03

WTIO31 FMEE 140624
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.8 S / 37.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES HUIT SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 950 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

IDAI A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION EN GROS OEIL BIEN DEFINI EN FIN DE
NUIT. SUR L'IMAGERIE IR ET LA DERNIERE PASSE SSMIS DE 02H24Z, IDAI A
PERDU SA STRUCTURE ANNULAIRE.
LES SIGNES D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE CONFIRME NEANMOINS AVEC LA POURSUITE
DU RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX, CE QUI S'EST TRADUIT DANS LA
POURSUITE DE LA BAISSE DES VALEURS DE DT A LA FOIS SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES, ET UNE REPERCUTION SUR LE CI.

UN SOLIDE HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE SITUE
MAINTENANT AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET SE PROLONGE VERS L'OUEST PAR UNE
DORSALE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, IDAI EST PREVU CONTINUER SUR SA
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE
SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES QUI EST PREVU DANS MOINS DE 18H
MAINTENANT. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST TRES
BONNE CONCERNANT LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE, IL RESTE NEANMOINS UNE
FAIBLE DISPERSION DANS LE TIMING, AVEC NOTAMMENT LE MODELE GFS PLUS
LENT QUE LES AUTRES MODELES DISPONIBLES. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE,
IDAI DEVRAIT TRES PROBABLEMENT ATTERRIR DANS UNE ZONE DE 100 KM
AUTOUR DE BEIRA.

LES DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT QUE DU CISAILLEMENT D'EST DE
MOYENNE TROPO POURRAIT SE METTRE EN PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET CAUSER UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
L'ETRE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE
MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE.

SUR LA PREVISION ACTUELLE ET EN UTILISANT UN CHAMP DE VENT PREVU AVEC
LE MODELE AROME, UNE SURCOTE PRESENTANT UN DANGER MORTEL POURRAI
ATTEINDRE DES VALEURS DE L'ORDRE DE 3M50 A 4M AU NIVEAU DE BEIRA ET
5M50-6M DANS L'ESTUAIRE DU FLEUVE PUNGWE (ATTENTION: CES VALEURS NE
TIENNENT PAS EN COMPTE DE LA MAREE ET DE LA MONTEE DES EAUX LIEE A LA
HOULE CYCLONIQUE). SI LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE DEVAIT SE CONFIRMER, ON
PEUT S'ATTENDRE AU SCENARIO DU PIRE POUR LA REGION DE BEIRA.=

>

2019-03-14 07:03

WTIO30 FMEE 140624
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 37.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5+

IDAI HAS MAINTAINED ITS WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE PATTERN AT THE END AT
THE NIGHT. ON IR IMAGERY AND THE LAST MICROWAVES DATA SSMIS OF
02H24Z. IDAI HAS LOST ITS ANNULAR CYCLONE STRUCTURE.
WEAKENING SIGNS ARE CONFIRMED WITH THE GOING ON WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS REFLECTED BY A SLOW DECREASING OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS, AND INTO CI-NUMBER TO.

A SOLID LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARDS. ON THIS PATTERN, IDAI
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS GENERAL WESTWARDS TRACK TODAY UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS THAT IS EXPECTED IN LESS THAN 18
HOURS NOW. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY GOOD
INTO THE AREA OF LANDFALL, HOWEVER IT REMAINS A LOW DISPERSION IN THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL WITH GFS GUIDANCE SLOWER THAN THE OTHERS AVAILABLE
MODELS . ON THIS TRACK, IDAI SHOULD VERY LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL IN A
100 KM AREA AROUND BEIRA.

LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME EASTERLY MID-SHEAR MAY
INCREASE TODAY AND THAT COULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TODAY BEFORE THE
LANDFALL.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
UNTIL THE LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED
TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED
BY THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND BASED ON FORECAST WINDFIELDS FROM
AROME, SOME LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE UP TO 3M50-4M IS POSSIBLE AT
BEIRA REACHING 5M50-6M IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE
DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WATER RISE FROM THE
CYCLONIC SWELL). IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS CONFIRMED, THIS COULD BE A
WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR THE BEIRA AREA.=

>

2019-03-14 06:15

WTIO24 FMEE 140617
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 37.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CERCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 35.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 33.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-14 01:23

WTIO31 FMEE 140046 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 37.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.0

>

2019-03-14 01:23

WTIO30 FMEE 140046 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 37.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.0

>

2019-03-14 01:20

WTIO31 FMEE 140046
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.7 S / 37.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SEPT SUD ET TRENTE SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=6.0- CI=6.0

IDAI A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION EN GROS OEIL BIEN DEFINI TOUTE LA
NUIT AVEC SEULEMENT UN LEGER RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI A
AMORCE UNE PETITE BAISSE DES VALEURS DE DT A LA FOIS SUBJECTIVES ET
OBJECTIVES. LA PASS SMAP DE 1524Z D'HIER SOIR RECUE PEU APRES
L'EMISSION DU DERNIER BULLETIN, DONNE DES VENTS A 105 KT. COMME
L'INTENSITE EST JUGEE STABILISEE DANS INTERVALLE, L'INTENSITE
INITIALE EST FIXEE A 105 KT.

UN SOLIDE HAUT GEOPOTENTIEL DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPO SE SITUE
MAINTENANT AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET SE PROLONGE VERS L'OUEST PAR UNE
DORSALE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION, IDAI EST PREVU CONTINUER SUR SA
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE
SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES QUI EST PREVU DANS MOINS DE 24H
MAINTENANT. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST TRES
BONNE, AVEC UNE TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE,
IDAI DEVRAIT TRES PROBABLEMENT ATTERRIR DANS UNE ZONE DE 100 KM
AUTOUR DE BEIRA.

SUR L'IMAGERIE IR, IDAI TEND A RESSEMBLER A UN CYCLONE ANNULAIRE CE
QUI DEVRAIT GARANTIR UNE CERTAINE STABILITE DE L'INTENSITE JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE. TOUTEFOIS LES DERNIERS MODELES NUMERIQUES MONTRENT
QUE DU CISAILLEMENT D'EST DE MOYENNE TROPO POURRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE AUJOURD'HUI ET CAUSER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
L'ETRE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE
MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE.

SUR LA PREVISION ACTUELLE ET EN UTILISANT UN CHAMP DE VENT PREVU AVEC
LE MODELE AROME, UNE SURCOTE DE 3M50 A 4M EST POSSIBLE AU NIVEAU DE
BEIRA ATTEIGNANT 5M50-6M DANS L'ESTUAIRE DU FLEUVE PUNGWE (ATTENTION:
CES VALEURS NE TIENNENT PAS EN COMPTE DE LA MAREE ET DE LA MONTEE DES
EAUX LIEE A LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE). SI LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE DEVAIT SE
CONFIRMER, ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE AU SCENARIO DU PIRE POUR LA REGION DE
BEIRA.=

>

2019-03-14 01:20

WTIO30 FMEE 140046
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 37.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 31.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=6.0- CI=6.0

IDAI HAS MAINTAINED ITS WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS REFLECTED BY A SLOW
DECREASING OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. SHORTLY AFTER THE
ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, DATA FROM A SMAP OVERPASS AT 1524Z
SHOWING 105 KT MAX WINDS, WAS RECEIVED. AS THE INTENSITY HAS LIKELY
BEEN STEADY DURING THAT TIME, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT.

A SOLID LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARDS. ON THIS PATTERN, IDAI
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS GENERAL WESTWARDS TRACK TODAY UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS THAT IS EXPECTED IN LESS THAN 24
HOURS NOW. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY GOOD,
WITH LOW DISPERSION. ON THIS TRACK, IDAI SHOULD VERY LIKELY MAKE
LANDFALL IN A 100 KM AREA AROUND BEIRA.

ON IR IMAGERY, IDAI TENDS TO LOOK LIKE AN ANNULAR CYCLONE WHICH MEAN
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY IN STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL.
HOWEVER LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME EASTERLY
MID-SHEAR MAY INCREASE TODAY AND THAT COULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING
TODAY BEFORE THE LANDFALL.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
UNTIL THE LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED
TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED
BY THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND BASED ON FORECAST WINDFIELDS FROM
AROME, SOME STORM SURGE UP TO 3M50-4M IS POSSIBLE AT BEIRA REACHING
5M50-6M IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE WATER RISE FROM THE CYCLONIC SWELL). IF
THE CURRENT TRACK IS CONFIRMED, THIS COULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO
FOR THE BEIRA AREA.=

>

2019-03-14 00:29

WTIO24 FMEE 140030
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 14/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.7 S / 37.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.8 S / 36.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 34.7 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-13 19:19

WTIO31 FMEE 131908 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 38.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 33.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 32.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

>

2019-03-13 19:19

WTIO30 FMEE 131908 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 38.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 33.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 32.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

>

2019-03-13 19:16

WTIO31 FMEE 131908
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 38.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE HUIT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 33.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 32.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

MAINTENANT QUE L'ERC EST TERMINE, IDAI A DEVELOPPE UN GROS OEIL BIEN
DEFINI (DIAMETRE DE L'OEIL SUPERIEUR A 45 MN EN INFRAROUGE RENFORCE).
L'APPLICATION OU PAS DE LA REGLE DES GROS YEUX DANS LA METHODE DE
DVORAK DONNE DES ECARTS IMPORTANTS EN TERME DE DT (ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.5
SELON QUE L'ON APPLIQUE OU PAS LA CONTRAINTE). PAR CONSEQUENT, LE FT
DONNE EST BASE SUR LE PT. L'INTENSITE FINALE A 100 KT VIENT EN BON
COMPROMIS ENTRE L'ADT A 95 KT (VENTS 10-MIN) ET LE DERNIER SATCON
DISPONIBLE A 105 KT (VENTS 10-MIN).

IDAI EST TOUJOURS SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU
SUD-OUEST. CETTE TENDANCE GENERALE DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE AVEC UNE LEGERE ACCELERATION POSSIBLE DE LA VITESSE DE
DEPLACEMENT DEMAIN. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE
EST TRES BONNE, AVEC UNE TRES FAIBLE DISPERSION. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE, IDAI DEVRAIT TRES PROBABLEMENT ATTERRIR EN SOIREE OU COURS
DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI DANS UNE ZONE DE 100KM AUTOUR DE BEIRA.

SUR L'IMAGERIE IR, IDAI TEND A RESSEMBLER A UN CYCLONE ANNULAIRE CE
QUI DEVRAIT GARANTIR UNE CERTAINE STABILITE DE L'INTENSITE JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
L'ETRE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE
MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE.

IL Y A ENCORE SUFFISAMENT D'INCERTITUDE POUR PARLER DE VALEUR PRECISE
DE SURCOTE AU NIVEAU DE BEIRA. CECI ETANT DIT, UNE SURCOTE
EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUSE, EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3 A 4M, DEVRAIT SE
PRODUIRE DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT ET POTENTIELLEMENT
BEAUCOUP PLUS DANS L'ESTUAIRE DU FLEUVE PUNGWE SI LE MAXIMUM DE
SURCOTE TOUCHE CETTE ZONE. SI LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE DEVAIT SE
CONFIRMER, ON PEUT S'ATTENDRE AU SCENARIO DU PIRE POUR LA REGION DE
BEIRA.=

>

2019-03-13 19:16

WTIO30 FMEE 131908
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 38.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 33.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 32.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

AS THE ERC IS NOW OVER, IDAI HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE
THIS EVENING (EYE DIAMETER LARGER THAN 45 NM IN EIR IMAGERY). DUE TO
THE LARGE EYE CONSTRAINT IN THE DVORAK METHOD (NO POSITIVE E-NUMBER
ADJUSTMENT), STRONG DISCREPANCIES APPEAR ON THE RAW DT-NUMBER,
PENDING ON APPLYING OR NOT THE LARGE EYE CONSTRAINT (DT AT 5.5 OR
6.5). THEREFORE, THE FINAL T-NUMBER IS SET AT 6.0 AND IS BASED ON
PT-NUMBER. THE FINAL INTENSITY AT 100 KT COME ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ADT AT 95 KT (10-MIN WINDS) AND THE LATEST SATCON AT 105
KT (10-MIN WINDS).

IDAI'S TRACK IS STILL ON A GENERAL WESTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE FORWARD MOTION. THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY GOOD, WITH LOW DISPERSION. ON THIS TRACK,
IDAI SHOULD VERY PROBABLY LANDFALL DURING THE EVENING OR THE NIGHT
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IN A 100KM AREA AROUND BEIRA.

ON IR IMAGERY, IDAI TENDS TO LOOK LIKE AN ANNULAR CYCLONE WHICH MEAN
THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE RATHER STEADY IN STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
AT LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
FOLLOW OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY
THE MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE FINAL TRACK TO TALK ABOUT A
PRECISE STORM SURGE VALUE AT BEIRA. HAVING SAID THAT, AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING 3 TO 4 METERS IS VERY LIKELY SOUTH
OF THE LANDFALL POINT AND POTENTIALLY MORE IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH
IF THE MAXIMUM OF STORM SURGE HIT THAT PLACE. IF THE CURRENT TRACK IS
CONFIRMED, THIS COULD BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR BEIRA.=

>

2019-03-13 18:24

WTIO24 FMEE 131827
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 38.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
19.8 S / 37.0 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 35.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-13 13:29

WTIO31 FMEE 131237 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 39.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-03-13 13:29

WTIO30 FMEE 131237 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 39.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2019-03-13 13:14

WTIO31 FMEE 131237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 39.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE IDAI
S'EST LENTEMENT AMELIOREE NOTAMMENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. LE
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT EST ENTRE DANS SA PHASE FINALE AVEC LA QUASI
DISPARATION DU PREMIER OEIL ENCORE VISIBLE JUSQU'A 10Z EN IR. LA
PASSE AMSR2 DE 1046Z MONTRE QUE LE PREMIER MUR A QUASIMENT DISPARU.
LE MUR EXTERNE QUANT A LUI S'EST NETTEMENT CONTRACTE ET A UNE
SIGNATURE IMPRESSIONNANTE EN IMAGERIE 89GHZ. CES ELEMENTS TEMOIGNENT
D'UN RETOUR A UNE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. L'INTENSITE A
DONC ETE REHAUSSEE, EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK
BRUTES. POUR INFORMATION, UNE PASSE SMAP CE MATIN A 0315Z DONNAIT DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX DE 88KT.

IDAI A COMMENCE A SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE EST TRES BONNE, AVEC UNE TRES FAIBLE
DISPERSION. SELON LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, IDAI DEVRAIT TRES
PROBABLEMENT ATTERRIR EN SOIREE OU COURS DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI
DANS UNE ZONE DE 100KM AUTOUR DE BEIRA.

ETANT DONNE LA FIN IMMINENTE DE L'ERC, LE STADE DE CYCLONE INTENSE
DEVRAIT ETRE ATTEINT A NOUVEAU CETTE NUIT. LES CONDITIONS SONT
GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES A UN MAINTIEN D'IDAI A CE STADE JUSQU'A SON
ATERRISAGE. LA PASSE AMRS2 OU LES DONNEES MPERC DU CIMSS NE SUGGERENT
PAS POUR L'INSTANT DE NOUVEAU CYCLE DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME EXTREMEMENT DANGEREUX ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
L'ETRE LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE
MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES
CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE SURCOTE DANGEREUSE,
EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3M, DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE DANS LA PARTIE SUD
DU POINT D'IMPACT. SI LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE DEVAIT SE CONFIRMER, LA
SURCOTE POURRAIT ETRE BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTE SUR LA REGION DE
BEIRA, QUI EST AU SUD DU LANDFALL. POTENTIELLEMENT ASSOCIEE AU PIC DE
MAREE HAUTE, LA SURCOTE POURRAIT DEPASSER LES 4M SUR LE LITTORAL ET
ATTEINDRE 7 A 8M DANS L'EMBOUCHURE DU FLEUVE PUNGWE. (ATTENTION CETTE
VALEUR N'INCLUT PAS LA MAREE NI LA MONTEE DES EAUX GENEREES PAR LA
HOULE CYCLONIQUE).=

>

2019-03-13 13:14

WTIO30 FMEE 131237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 39.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 37.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 32.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, IDAI CLOUD PATTERN SLOWLY IMPROVED
ESPECIALLY ON THE LATEST IMAGES. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS
ENTERED ITS FINAL PART WITH THE NEARLY DISAPPEARING OF THE FIRST EYE
VISIBLE UP TO 10Z IN INFRARED. 1046Z AMSR2 SWATH SHOW THAT THE FIRST
EYEWALL IS ALMOST VANISHED. THE OUTER EYEWALL ON THE CONTRARY HAS AN
IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN 89GHZ AND SHRINK SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS FACTS
TESTIFY THAT A DEEPENING PHASE CLEARLY STARTED. INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
THUS UPGRADED, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST RAW DVORAK ESTIMATES. FOR
INFORMATION, A SMAP SWATH AT 0315Z SHOWED MAXIMAL WINDS REACHING
88KT.

IDAI'S TRACK BEGAN TO BEND WESTSWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY GOOD, WITH LOW DISPERSION.
ON THIS TRACK, IDAI SHOULD VERY PROBABLY LANDFALL DURING THE EVENING
OR THE NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IN A 100KM AREA AROUND BEIRA.

GIVEN THE IMMINENCE OF THE ERC END, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
WILL LIKELY BE REACH OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR SUCH
AN INTENSITY UP TO THE LANDFALL. NOR MICROWAVE DATA OR CIMSS MPERC
SUGGEST CURRENTLY A NEW ERC.

IDAI IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SYSTEM AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AT
LANDFALL. THE INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE
MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE,
EXCEEDING 3 METERS IS LIKELY SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL. IF THE CURRENT
TRACK IS CONFIRMED, THE SURGE COULD BECOME MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ON
BEIRA AREA, WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL. POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE, THE SURGE COULD REACH 4M ON THE COASTLINE AND 7
TO 8M IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC
SWELL).=

>

2019-03-13 12:16

WTIO24 FMEE 131219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 39.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
19.7 S / 37.5 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
19.8 S / 36.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-13 07:43

WTIO31 FMEE 130649 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 39.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-03-13 07:43

WTIO30 FMEE 130649 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 39.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-03-13 07:40

WTIO31 FMEE 130649
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 39.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE DE IDAI A
CONTINUE DE FLUCTUER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DE
L'OEIL EN COURS. L'ANCIEN OEIL DE PETITE TAILLE ETAIT VISIBLE PENDANT
QUELQUES HEURES MAIS A MAINTENANT DISPARU. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES
CONFIRMENT L'EROSION DU COEUR INTERNE ET LA CONSOLIDATION D'UN
DEUXIEME MUR A ENVIRON 30 MN DU CENTRE. AU VU DES DONNEES DE L'ASCAT
D'HIER SOIR ET DES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES, LES VENTS MAXIMAUX
SONT VRAISEMBLABLEMENT PRESENTS DANS LE MUR EXTERIEUR. PAR AILLEURS
LA BOUEE 16011545 A MESURE UNE PRESSION MINIMALE DE 985HPA A 30 MN AU
SUD DU CENTRE A 00Z.

IDAI A COMMENCE A SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GLOBALEMENT BONNE. SELON LA
TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, IDAI DEVRAIT PROBABLEMENT (3 CHANCES SUR 4)
ATTERRIR EN SOIREE ET COURS DE NUIT DE JEUDI A VENDREDI DANS UNE ZONE
DE 100KM AUTOUR DE BEIRA. LE TIMING EXACT POURRAIT ENCORE EVOLUER.

BIEN QUE LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SOIENT FAVORABLES POUR
SUPPORTER UN PUISSANT SYSTEME JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DIFFICILE EN RAISON DES PROCESSUS INTERNES QUI SONT
EN COURS. EN EFFET, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT N'EST PAS ENCORE
TERMINE, ET UN DEUXIEME POURRAIT DEMARRER AVANT L'ATTERISAGE. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION NE PREND PAS EN COMPTE CE SCENARIO POUR L'INSTANT
ET PROPOSE UNE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A LA COTE.

IDAI EST UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX ET DEVRAIT CONTINUER A L'ETRE LORS
DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE
SONT APPELES A SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI
QUE LES INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU
MOZAMBIQUE. UNE SURCOTE DANGEREUSE, EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3M,
DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE AU NIVEAU ET JUSTE AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT. SUR
LA PREVISION ACTUELLE DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA SURCOTE A BEIRA POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE 2M50 ET PLUS DANS L'EMBOUCHURE DU FLEUVE (ATTENTION CETTE
VALEUR N'INCLUT PAS LA MAREE NI LA MONTEE DES EAUX GENEREES PAR LA
HOULE CYCLONIQUE).=

>

2019-03-13 07:40

WTIO30 FMEE 130649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 39.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 32.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, IDAI CLOUD PATTERN KEEP ON FLUCTUATING DUE
TO THE ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE FORMER SMALL EYE WAS
STILL VISIBLE EARLIER BUT IT HAS DISAPPEARED SINCE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
CONFIRM THE DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE AND THE BUILDING OF THE
OUTER EYEWALL, 30 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GIVEN LAST NIGHT ASCAT
DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA, MAXIMAL WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE OUTER
EYEWALL. ALSO THE 16011545 BUOY MESURED 985HPA 30 NM SOUTH OF THE
CENTER AT 00Z.

IDAI'S TRACK BEGAN TO BEND WESTSWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD. ON THIS TRACK, IDAI
SHOULD PROBABLY (3 CHANCES OUT OF 4) LANDFALL IN THE EVENING OR THE
NIGHT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IN A 100KM AREA AROUND BEIRA. THE EXACT
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE
AND ABLE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE PROCESSES.
INDEED, THE CURRENT ERC IS NOT FINISHED AND A SECOND ONE MIGHT START
BEFORE THE LANDFALL. THE CURRENT FORECAST DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SUCH A SCENARIO AND SHOW A DEEPENING UP TO THE COASTLINE.

IDAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS SYSTEM AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AT LANDFALL. THE
INHABITANTS OF THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW OFFICIAL
RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE MOZAMBICAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING 3 METERS
IS LIKELY AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL AND TO ITS SOUTH. ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, STORM SURGE IN THE BEIRA AREA MAY REACH 2M50 AND MORE
IN THE PUNGWE RIVER MOUTH (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL).=

>

2019-03-13 06:28

WTIO24 FMEE 130628
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 39.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 130
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
19.6 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
19.7 S / 36.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-13 00:52

WTIO31 FMEE 130018 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 40.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 210 SO: 190 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5.CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-13 00:52

WTIO30 FMEE 130018 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 40.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 210 SW: 190 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5.CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-13 00:30

WTIO31 FMEE 130018
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 13/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 40.2 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 210 SO: 190 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5;CI=5.0-

AU COURS DES 3 DERNIERES HEURES, LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE IR A DE
NOUVEAU COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER, PROBABLEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) A MESURE QUE LE MUR
EXTERIEUR PREND LE DESSUS. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES IR, ON DISTINGUE
MEME LA ZONE TAMPON ENTRE LES DEUX MURS (EXTERNE/INTERNE) A LA FAVEUR
D'UNE FAIBLESSE DU QUADRANT OUEST DE LA CONVECTION CENTRALE. UNE
LARGE BANDE EXTERIEURE RESTE ENROULEE TOUT AUTOUR DE CE QUI SEMBLE
ETRE LE MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE. L'INTENSITE EST DIRECTEMENT DESCENDUE
DE 5KT POUR TENIR COMPTE DE L'EFFET DE L'ERC SUR IDAI.

IDAI A COMMENCE A SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST ET CE VIRAGE
DEVRAIT CONTINUER VERS LE SUD-OUEST AUJOURD'HUI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. LA CONFIANCE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GLOBALEMENT BONNE, MEME SI CERTAINS
MODELES SE SONT DECALES VERS LE SUD. IL Y A TOUJOURS ENVIRON 3
CHANCES SUR 4 POUR QUE LE SYSTEME ATTERRISSE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ENTRE
CHINDE AU NORD ET CHILOANE AU SUD, INCLUANT LA VILLE DE BEIRA. CET
ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET TOT VENDREDI
MATIN.

BIEN QUE LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SOIENT FAVORABLES POUR
SUPPORTER UN PUISSANT SYSTEME JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DIFFICILE EN RAISON DES PROCESSUS INTERNES QUI SONT
EN COURS. LES MIMIC D'EAU PRECIPITABLE PROVENANT DU CIMSS MONTRENT DE
L'AIR SEC S'ENROULANT EN PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME, AVEC MEME UNE POCHE
SECHE ASSEZ PROCHE DU CENTRE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. MAIS EN
L'ABSENCE DE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND OU DE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO
SIGNIFICATIF, CET AIR SEC DEVRAIT MAJORITAIREMENT RESTER EN DEHORS DU
COEUR CENTRAL. IDAI DEVRAIT AINSI REDEVENIR UN CYCLONE INTENSE EN
APPROCHE DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI 24-48 HEURES. L'INTENSITE
MAXIMALE EST ESTIMEE A 110 KT AVEC LES DERNIERS RUNS DE GUIDANCE
D'INTENSITE, BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS ENTRE LES DONNEES ICNW A 105 KT
ET LE MODELE FRANCAIS AROME QUI ATTEINT DESORMAIS 120-125 KT DEMAIN.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE
ET LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES
INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE
SURCOTE DANGEREUSE, EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3M, DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE
AU NIVEAU ET JUSTE AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT. SUR LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA SURCOTE A BEIRA POURRAIT ATTEINDRE
2M/2M50 (ATTENTION CETTE VALEUR N'INCLUT PAS LA MAREE NI LA MONTEE
DES EAUX GENEREES PAR LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE).=

>

2019-03-13 00:30

WTIO30 FMEE 130018
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 40.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 210 SW: 190 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 33.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5;CI=5.0-

OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS, THE IR SAT PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED AGAIN
PROBABLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC),
AS THE OUTER EYEWALL GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. OVER THE LAST IR IMAGES,
THE MOAT ZONE SEEMED TO HAVE APPEARED IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THANKS TO A WEAKNESS OF THE INNER CONVECTION.
A WIDE OUTER BAND IS STILL WRAPED ALL AROUND WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE
INNER EYEWALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DECREASED OF 5KT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE EFFECTS OF THE ONGOING ERC ON THE SYSTEM.

IDAI'S TRACK BEGAN TO BEND WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS AND THIS TURN SHOULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS GOOD, ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
SOUTHWARD. THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 3 CHANCES OUT OF 4 FOR THE
LANDFALL POINT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST TO BE BETWEEN CHINDE IN THE
NORTH AND CHILOANE IN THE SOUTH, INCLUDING BEIRA'S AREA. THE LANDFALL
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE
AND ABLE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE PROCESSES.
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMSS SHOWS SOME DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE OUTER CIRCULATION, WITH EVEN A DRY POACH LOCATED
QUITE CLOSE TO THE INNER CORE IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER,
WITH NO DEEP/MID-SHEAR EXPECTED, THE MAJORITYOF THIS DRY AIR SHOULD
REMAIN OUTSIDE THE INNER CORE. IDAI IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN ITS INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT NEARS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 110 KT TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THE LAST INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS, THIS REPRESENTS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ICNW DATA AT 105 KT AND THE FRENCH FINESCALE
MODEL AROME THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 120-125 KT TOMORROW.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL AND
THE INHABITANTS OF THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE
MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING
3 METERS ARE LIKELY AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL AND TO ITS SOUTH. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, STORM SURGE IN THE BEIRA AREA MAY REACH
2M/2M50 (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND
THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL).=

>

2019-03-13 00:10

WTIO24 FMEE 130012
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 13/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 40.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 135 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 90 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 145 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.8 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/14 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 37.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-12 18:30

WTIO31 FMEE 121819 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 160 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-12 18:30

WTIO30 FMEE 121819 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 160 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-12 18:28

WTIO31 FMEE 121819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 160 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DISPONIBLES (SSMIS DE 1309Z ET
1522Z, WINDSAT DE 1515Z) PERMETTENT D'APPRECIER L'EVOLUTION
RELATIVEMENT ATYPIQUE DU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
(ERC), QUI TRAINE EN LONGUEUR. ALORS QUE LE MUR DE L'OEIL CENTRAL
RESTE TOUJOURS SOLIDE ET SEMBLE ETRE LE PRINCIPAL MOTEUR DE
L'AMELIORATION DE LA PRESENTATION SATELLITE IR DES DERNIERES 12H, LE
MUR EXTERIEUR A FINI PAR SE REFERMER ET COMMENCE A SE RESSERRER. LE
MUR INTERNE DEVRAIT DONC DISPARAITRE DANS LA NUIT ET CET ERC POURRAIT
ETRE ACHEVE DEMAIN MATIN.

IDAI MAINTIENT TOUJOURS UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT
SE REDRESSER GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. LA
CONFIANCE DANS LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE RESTE GLOBALEMENT BONNE,
AVEC UNE FAIBLE DISPERSION DES MODELES DISPONIBLES. IL Y A ENVIRON 3
CHANCES SUR 4 QUE LE SYSTEME ATTERRISSE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ENTRE
CHINDE AU NORD ET CHILOANE AU SUD, INCLUANT LA VILLE DE BEIRA. CET
ATTERRISSAGE DEVRAIT AVOIR LIEU ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET TOT VENDREDI
MATIN.

BIEN QUE LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SOIENT FAVORABLES POUR
SUPPORTER UN PUISSANT SYSTEME JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DIFFICILE EN RAISON DES PROCESSUS INTERNES QUI SONT
EN COURS. LES MIMIC D'EAU PRECIPITABLE PROVENANT DU CIMSS MONTRENT DE
L'AIR SEC S'ENROULANT EN PERIPHERIE EST DU SYSTEME MAIS EN L'ABSENCE
DE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND OU DE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO
SIGNIFICATIF, CET AIR SEC DEVRAIT RESTER EN DEHORS DU COEUR CENTRAL.
IDAI DEVRAIT AINSI REDEVENIR UN CYCLONE INTENSE EN APPROCHE DES COTES
DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI 24-48 HEURES. L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE A ETE RELEVEE
A 115 KT AVEC LES DERNIERS RUNS DE GUIDANCE D'INTENSITE, BASEE SUR UN
CONSENSUS ENTRE LES DONNEES ICNW A 95/100 KT ET LE MODELE FRANCAIS
AROME QUI ATTEINT DESORMAIS 120-130 KT DEMAIN.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE
ET LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES
INFORMATIONS EMISES PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DU MOZAMBIQUE. UNE
SURCOTE DANGEREUSE, EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3M, DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE
AU NIVEAU ET JUSTE AU SUD DU POINT D'IMPACT. SUR LA PREVISION
ACTUELLE DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA SURCOTE A BEIRA POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 2M
(ATTENTION CETTE VALEUR N'INCLUT PAS LA MAREE NI LA MONTEE DES EAUX
GENEREES PAR LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE)=

>

2019-03-12 18:28

WTIO30 FMEE 121819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 160 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 34.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

THE LAST MW IMAGES AVAILABLE (1309Z AND 1522Z SSMIS, 1515Z WINDSAT)
ALLOW THE MONITORING OF THE LENGHTY EVOLUTION OF THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). AS THE INNER EYEWALL REMAINS SOLID AND SEEMS
TO BE THE MAIN MOTOR OF THE IMPROVEMENTS IN THE IR SAT PRESENTATION
OVER THE LAST 12H, THE OUTER EYEWALL FINALLY CLOSED ITS WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND BEGAN TO CONTRACT. THE INNER EYEWALL SHOULD THUS
DISAPPEAR OVERNIGHT AND THIS ERC COULD BE COMPLETED BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

IDAI MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEND
GRADUALLY WESTWARDS FROM TOMORROW WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS GOOD, AS THE MODEL
DISPERSION IS LOW. THERE ARE APPROXIMATELY 3 CHANCES OUT OF 4 FOR THE
LANDFALL POINT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COAST TO BE BETWEEN CHINDE IN THE
NORTH AND CHILOANE IN THE SOUTH, INCLUDING BEIRA'S AREA. THE LANDFALL
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE
AND ABLE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE PROCESSES.
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM CIMSS SHOWS SOME DRY AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN OUTER CIRCULATION BUT WITH VERY LOW SHEAR
OR MID-SHEAR EXPECTED, THIS DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE INNER
CORE.
IDAI IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN ITS INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT
NEARS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED AT 115 KT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LAST INTENSITY
GUIDANCE RUNS, THIS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ICNW DATA AT
95-100 KT AND THE FRENCH FINESCALE MODEL AROME THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM
TO 120-130 KT TOMORROW.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL AND
THE INHABITANTS OF THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR THE INFORMATION ISSUED BY THE
MOZAMBICAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING
3 METERS ARE LIKELY AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL AND TO ITS SOUTH. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, STORM SURGE IN THE BEIRA AREA MAY REACH 2M
(CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE SEA
LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL)=

>

2019-03-12 18:13

WTIO24 FMEE 121811 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-12 18:10

WTIO24 FMEE 121811
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 40.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 125 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-12 13:19

WTIO31 FMEE 121240 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 160 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-12 13:19

WTIO30 FMEE 121240 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 160 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.0+

>

2019-03-12 13:18

WTIO31 FMEE 121240
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SO: 160 NO: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.0+

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE IDAI S'EST AMELIOREE CET APRES-MIDI AVEC
UN OEIL MIEUX DEFINI A L'IMAGERIE VISIBLE ET ASSOCIE A DES SOMMETS
PLUS FROIDS SUR L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE RENFORCE. L'INTENSITE FINALE
EST ESTIMEE A PARTIR DE L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK QUI EST
CONSENSUELLE A 5.0. SANS IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDE RECENTE, IL N'EST PAS
POSSIBLE D'APPRECIER L'EVOLUTION DU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL. L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE PERMET TOUTEFOIS DE SUPPOSER QUE LA
RECENTE AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION EST TOUJOURS LIEE AU MUR
INTERNE.

IDAI MAINTIENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST QUI DEVRAIT SE
REDRESSER GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. LA CONFIANCE EST EN HAUSSE DANS LA
PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET ON PEUT ESTIMER QU'IL Y A 3 CHANCES SUR 4
QUE LE SYSTEME ATTERRISSE SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE ENTRE CHINDE AU NORD ET
CHILOANE AU SUD, INCLUANT LA VILLE DE BEIRA. CET ATTERRISSAGE VA
AVOIR LIEU ENTRE JEUDI SOIR ET TOT VENDREDI MATIN.

BIEN QUE LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES POUR
SUPPORTER UN PUISSANT SYSTEME JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DIFFICILE EN RAISON DES PROCESSUS INTERNES QUI SONT
EN COURS. LES MIMIC D'EAU PRECIPITABLE PROVENANT DU CIMSS MONTRE DE
L'AIR SEC S'ENROULANT EN PERIPHERIE EST DU SYSTEME MAIS EN L'ABSENCE
DE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND OU DE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPO
SIGNIFICATIF, CET AIR SEC DEVRAIT RESTER EN DEHORS DU COEUR CENTRAL.

LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE RESTE QUE IDAI DEVRAIT REDEVENIR UN CYCLONE
INTENSE ALORS QU'IL SERA EN APPROCHE DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE D'ICI
48-60 HEURES. L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE ATTENDUE A 105 KT EST UN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LE CONSENSUS D'INTENSITE ICNW A 85-90 KT ET LE MODELE FRANCAIS
AROME QUI ATTEINT 120-125 KT DEMAIN.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE
ET LES HABITANTS DE LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE MENACEE SONT APPELES A
SUIVRE AVEC ATTENTION LES CONSIGNES OFFICIELLES AINSI QUE LES
PRODUITS EMIS PAR LA METEOROLOGIE MOZAMBICAINE. UNE SURCOTE
DANGEREUSE, EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3M, DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE AU
NIVEAU ET JUSTE AU SUD DE LA OU LE CENTRE VA ATTERRIR. SUR LA
PREVISION ACTUELLE DE TRAJECTOIRE, LA SURCOTE A BEIRA POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE 1M50 A 2M (ATTENTION CETTE VALEUR N'INCLUT PAS LA MAREE NI
LA MONTEE DES EAUX GENEREES PAR LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE)=

>

2019-03-12 13:18

WTIO30 FMEE 121240
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 190 SW: 160 NW: 180
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 37.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 36.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 34.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.0+

THE EYE FEATURES OF IDAI HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER
DEFINED EYE ON VIS IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON
EIR IMAGERY. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES WHICH ARE ALL AGREE ON A CI AT 5.0. WITH NO RECENT MW
IMAGERY AVAILABLE, IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO ASSESS THE ERC PROCESS, BUT
CLASSICAL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING STRENGTHENING TREND STILL
COME FROM THE INNER EYEWALL.

IDAI MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEND
GRADUALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STRENGTHENING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED THAT THERE IS 3 CHANCES OUT OF 4 THAT THE CENTER WILL CROSS
THE MOZAMBICAN COAST BETWEEN CHINDE TO THE NORTH AND CHILOANE TO THE
SOUTH INCLUDING THE BEIRA AREA. THIS WILL HAPPEN THURSDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE PROCESS.
MIMIC PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM CIMSS SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING OVER
THE EASTERN OUTER CIRCULATION BUT WITH VERY LOW SHEAR OR MID-SHEAR
EXPECTED THIS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE INNER CORE.

THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THAT IDAI IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN
STRENGTH AND BE AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WILL NEAR THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM INTENSITY INTENSITY AT 105
KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (ICNW) AT
85-90 KT AND AROME FRENCH MODEL THAT BRING THE SYSTEM TO 120-125 KT
TOMORROW.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL AND
INHABITANTS FROM THE EXPECTED LANDFALL AREA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONS AND MONITOR PRODUCT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICES OF MOZAMBIQUE. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING 3
METERS ARE LIKELY WHERE AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
WILL MAKE LANDFALL. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, STORM SURGE IN THE
BEIRA AREA MAY REACH 1M50-2M (CAUTION: THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE TIDE AND THE SEA LEVEL RISE DUE TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL)=

>

2019-03-12 12:21

WTIO24 FMEE 121219 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
19.3 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-12 12:17

WTIO24 FMEE 121219
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8 S / 41.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 95 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 125
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
19.3 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-12 07:19

WTIO31 FMEE 120647 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 41.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 180 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-12 07:19

WTIO30 FMEE 120647 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 41.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 180 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/16 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-12 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 120647
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 41.8 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 180 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES MONTRET QU'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT
DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST TOUJOURS EN COURS AVEC UN MUR INTERNE SEVEREMENT
ERODE ET UN MUR EXTERNE QUI N'A TOUJOURS PAS COMPLETEMENT ENCERCLE LE
MUR INTERNE. CETTE EVOLUTION LENTE DU CYCLE JETTE UN DOUTE A LA FOIS
SUR L'ANALYSE D'INTENSITE ET LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE. L'INTENSITE
FINALE A 70 KT SE PLACE JUSTE EN DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK
SUBJECTIVES ET EN BON ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES (ADT, SATCON) DONNANT 75-80 KT EN VENTS 1-MIN.

IDAI MAINTIENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST QUI
DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. LE TIMING ET LA
LOCALISATION DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE D'IDAI RESTENT ENCORE QUELQUE
PEU INCERTAINS MAIS LES DERNIERS MODELES POINTENT AVEC INSISTANCE LA
REGION PROCHE DE BEIRA.

BIEN QUE LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES POUR
SUPPORTER UN PUISSANT SYSTEME JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE, LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE RESTE DIFFICILE EN RAISON DES PROCESSUS INTERNES QUI SONT
EN COURS. LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE RESTE QUE IDAI DEVRAIT REDEVENIR UN
CYCLONE INTENSE ALORS QU'IL SERA EN APPROCHE DES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE
D'ICI 48-60 HEURES. L'INTENSITE MAXIMALE ATTEINTE A ETE REDUITE A 105
KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE QUI PLAFONNENT
A 90-100 KT.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE,
MAINTENANT PREVU JEUDI SOIR SUR LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE. UNE SURCOTE
DANGEREUSE, EXCEDANT PROBABLEMENT LES 3M, DEVRAIT SE PRODUIRE PRES ET
JUSTE AU SUD DE LA OU LE CENTRE VA ATTERIR. A CELA, IL FAUT AJOUTER
UNE HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEJA PRESENTE SUR LES COTES MALGACHES ET
AFRICAINES.=

>

2019-03-12 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 120647
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 41.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 180 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 35.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 34.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/16 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 33.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.0-

RECENT MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT AN ERC IS STILL UNDERWAY WITH AN ERODING
INNER EYEWALL BUT A SECONDARY EYEWALL THAT HAS NOT STILL NOT
ENCOMPASS THE INNER WALL. THIS SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE ERC IMPLIES
HIGHER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE FINAL INTENSITY AT 70 KT IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW MOST OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (ADT, SATCON) AROUND 75-80 KT (1-MIN
WINDS)

IDAI MAINTAIN A SLOW TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEND GRADUALLY WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTH-WEST.THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR BOTH TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE IMPACT ON THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST BUT RECENT GUIDANCE
POINT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BEIRA AREA.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE ONGOING INNER CORE PROCESS.
THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THAT IDAI IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN
STENTGH AND BE AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WILL NEAR THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST IN 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED
TO 105 KT ACCORDING TO LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT LIES AROUND
90-100 KT.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDFALL NOW
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, EXCEEDING 3 METERS
ARE LIKELY NEAR AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TO THIS, WE MUST
ADD A CYCLONIC SWELL ALREADY PRESENT ON THE MALAGASY AND AFRICAN
COASTS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO GROW.=

>

2019-03-12 06:35

WTIO24 FMEE 120634 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 41.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

>

2019-03-12 06:32

WTIO24 FMEE 120634
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 41.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
19.1 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 06 UTC:
19.5 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-12 00:35

WTIO31 FMEE 120031 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 42.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-12 00:35

WTIO30 FMEE 120031 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0-

>

2019-03-12 00:32

WTIO31 FMEE 120031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.0 S / 42.3 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 80


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 CI=5.0-

LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL A BIEN ENTAME LA FORCE DES
VENTS DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU CYCLONE COMME LE MONTRE LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDE METOP-A DE 1835UTC. CE CYCLE SE POURSUIT ET ENTRAINE UNE
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL MAL DEFINIE, DONT L'ANALYSE DVORAK
PERMET ENCORE D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 75KT. EN L'ABSENCE DE
PASSE ASCAT SUR LE SYSTEME, ON NE PEUT QUE SUPPOSER UNE STRUCTURE DE
VENT BIEN ASSYMETRIQUE AVEC UNE COMPOSANTE NORD PLUS ETENDUE MAIS
PLUS FAIBLE.

IDAI MAINTIENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE ENCORE LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR
DE MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST. LA
MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT EGALEMENT UNE POURSUITE DE
CE RECOURBEMENT JEUDI, DONNANT UN CAP NORD-OUEST AU CYCLONE AU MOMENT
DE L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. LE TIMING ET LA
LOCALISATION DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE D'IDAI RESTENT ENCORE
INCERTAINS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LA PLUPART DES MODELES
PROPOSENT UN RETOUR SUR MER DE LA CIRCULATION QUI POURRAIT A NOUVEAU
S'INTENSIFIER.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME PUISSE ENCORE SE RENFORCER, NOTAMMENT
MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC DE BONNES CONDITIONS OCEANIQUES D'APRES LES
DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE PSY4 DE MERCATOR-OCEAN. CEPENDANT, LE
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL ENTRAINE UN NET
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE L'INTENSITE DE IDAI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H.
PASSE CE CYCLE, LE SYSTEME EVOLUANT SOUS UNE DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET
BENEFICIANT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, SON INTENSIFICATION POURRA REPRENDRE DANS LA
NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. IDAI DEVRAIT ATTERRIR AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE,
TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE APPROXIMATIVEMENT ENTRE BEIRA
ET QUELIMANE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. LES PREMIERES ESTIMATIONS DE
SURCOTE DEPASSENT LES 6M SUR LE DELTA DU ZAMBEZE ET SONT PROCHES DE
4M AUTOUR DE BEIRA ET QUELIMANE. A CELA, IL FAUT AJOUTER UNE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE DEJA PRESENTE SUR LES COTES MALGACHES ET AFRICAINES. LES
MESURES DE HOULE PAR SATELLITE FOURNISSAIENT IL Y A ENCORE 6 HEURES
DES VALEURS DE PLUS DE 7M (SOIT DES HAUTEURS MAXIMALES DE PRES DE 12
METRES) A PROXIMITE DE IDAI. DES VAGUES DE PRES DE 12 METRES SONT
ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES LORS DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, POUVANT
ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS MAXIMALES DE 20 METRE=

>

2019-03-12 00:32

WTIO30 FMEE 120031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 80


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 36.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 35.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 34.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=5.0-

THE CYCLE OF EYE WALL REPLACEMENT HAS REDUCED THE WIND STRENGTH IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CYCLONE AS IT SHOWS THE METOP-A MICRO-IMAGES
OF 1835UTC. THIS CYCLE CONTINUES AND LEADS A CLOUD PATTERN WITH A
POORLY DEFINED EYE, WHERE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS NOW TO ESTIMATE
THE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 75KT. IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ASCAT SWATH ON
THE SYSTEM, IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WIND STRUCTURE IS ASYMMETRIC WITH
A MORE EXTENSIVE BUT WEAKER NORTHERN COMPONENT.

IDAI MAINTAIN A STILL SLOW TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE
STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE
SOUTH-WEST. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS TURN COULD
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, GIVING A NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO IDAI AT THE
MOMENT OF ITS IMPACT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. THE TIMING AND
LOCALISATION OF THE IMPACT THUS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. LATER,
MOST MODELS OFFER A RETURN TO SEA OF THE LOWLEVEL CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION THAT COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD OCEANIC CONDITIONS, BASED ON DATA FROM THE PSY4
OCEAN MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN. HOWEVER, EVIDENCE OF A CYCLE OF EYE
WALL REPLACEMENT LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF IDAI'S INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE AXIS OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THUS BENEFITS FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, SO ITS
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE ABLE TO RESUME DURING THE NIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. IDAI SHOULD LAND AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDING,
WHICH IS STILL FORECASTED ON FRIDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE
BETWEEN BEIRA AND QUELIMANE APPROXIMATELY. THE FIRST STORM SURGE
ESTIMATIONS EXCEED 6M OVER THE ZAMBEZE'S DELTA AND ARE CLOSE TO 4M
AROUND BEIRA AND QUELIMANE. TO THIS, WE MUST ADD A CYCLONIC SWELL
ALREADY PRESENT ON THE MALAGASY AND AFRICAN COASTS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW. SATELLITE WAVE MEASUREMENTS UNTIL 6 HOURS AGO
PROVIDED VALUES OF MORE THAN 7M (I.E. MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 12M)
NEAR IDAI. WAVES OF 12 METRES ARE EXPECTED ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS
DURING LANDING, REACHING MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 20 METRES.=

>

2019-03-12 00:14

WTIO24 FMEE 120016
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 12/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 42.3 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 170 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 85 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
18.8 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/13 AT 00 UTC:
19.3 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-11 18:43

WTIO31 FMEE 111819 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 42.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 16/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

>

2019-03-11 18:43

WTIO30 FMEE 111819 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 42.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/16 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

>

2019-03-11 18:40

WTIO31 FMEE 111819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 42.5 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
120H: 16/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL D'IDAI S'EST DEGRADE AINSI
QU'UNE CONVECTION ALENTOUR PLUS CHAUDE. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION,
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST VUE A LA BAISSE LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DE VENT
DE L'ORDRE DE 90KT, AU SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 1533UTC LAISSENT ENTREVOIR UN DEBUT
DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. CELA CONTRIBUE A LIMITER
L'INTENSITE DE IDAI, TOUT COMME LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN
QUI A BIEN ETE ENTAME SUITE AU DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME.

IDAI MAINTIENT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST.
LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT EGALEMENT UNE POURSUITE
DE CE RECOURBEMENT JEUDI, DONNANT UN CAP NORD-OUEST AU CYCLONE AU
MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. LE TIMING ET LA
LOCALISATION DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE D'IDAI RESTENT CEPENDANT
RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINS. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LA PLUPART DES
MODELES PROPOSENT UN RETOUR SUR MER DE LA CIRCULATION QUI POURRAIT A
NOUVEAU S'INTENSIFIER.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME PUISSE ENCORE SE RENFORCER, NOTAMMENT
MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR UNE GYRE OCEANIQUE CONCENTRANT
UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE ELEVE D'APRES LES DONNEES DU MODELE OCEANIQUE
PSY4 DE MERCATOR-OCEAN. CEPENDANT, LES INDICES D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL LAISSE PENSER A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
TEMPORAIRE DE L'INTENSITE DE IDAI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. PASSE
CE CYCLE, LE SYSTEME EVOLUANT SOUS UNE DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET
BENEFICIANT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE, SON INTENSIFICATION POURRA REPRENDRE DANS LA
NUIT DE MERCREDI A JEUDI. IDAI DEVRAIT ATTERRIR AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE,
TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE APPROXIMATIVEMENT ENTRE BEIRA
ET QUELIMANE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. LES PREMIERES ESTIMATIONS DE
SURCOTE DEPASSENT LES 6M SUR LE DELTA DU ZAMBEZE ET SONT PROCHES DE
4M AUTOUR DE BEIRA ET QUELIMANE. A CELA, IL FAUT AJOUTER UNE HOULE
CYCLONIQUE DEJA PRESENTE SUR LES COTES MALGACHES ET AFRICAINES QUI VA
CONTINUAIT DE GROSSIR. LES MESURES DE HOULE PAR SATELLITE FOURNISSENT
ACTUELLEMENT DES VALEURS DE PLUS DE 7M (SOIT DES HAUTEURS MAXIMALES
DE PRES DE 12 METRES) A PROXIMITE DE IDAI. DES VAGUES DE PRES DE 12
METRES SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES LORS DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE, POUVANT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS MAXIMALES DE 20
METRES.=

>

2019-03-11 18:40

WTIO30 FMEE 111819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 42.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 958 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 36.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/16 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE IDAI'S EYE HAS DETERIORATED AND THE
CONVECTION IS WARMER TOO. IN THIS PATTERN, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
SEEN DOWNWARDS LEAVING A WIND ESTIMATE OF AROUND 90KT, AT THE
THRESHOLD OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES
OF 1533UTC SHOW A BEGINNING OF THE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL.
THIS HELPS TO LIMIT THE IDAI'S INTENSITY, AS WELL AS THE ENERGY
POTENTIAL OF THE OCEAN, WHICH HAS BEEN WELL CONSUMED DUE TO THE SLOW
DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

IDAI MAINTAIN A TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE STRENGTHENING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS TURN COULD CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY, GIVING A NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO IDAI AT THE MOMENT OF ITS
IMPACT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. THE TIMING AND LOCALISATION OF THE
IMPACT THUS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN. LATER, MOST MODELS OFFER A
RETURN TO SEA OF THE LOWLEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION THAT COULD
INTENSIFY AGAIN.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES OVER AN OCEANIC GYRE CONCENTRATING HIGH ENERGY
CONTENT, BASED ON DATA FROM THE PSY4 OCEAN MODEL OF MERCATOR-OCEAN.
HOWEVER, EVIDENCE OF A CYCLE OF EYE WALL REPLACEMENT SUGGESTS A
TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF IDAI'S INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS BENEFITS
FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, SO ITS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE ABLE TO
RESUME DURING THE NIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. IDAI SHOULD LAND
AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDING,
WHICH IS STILL FORECASTED ON FRIDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE
BETWEEN BEIRA AND QUELIMANE APPROXIMATELY. THE FIRST STORM SURGE
ESTIMATIONS EXCEED 6M OVER THE ZAMBEZE'S DELTA AND ARE CLOSE TO 4M
AROUND BEIRA AND QUELIMANE. TO THIS, WE MUST ADD A CYCLONIC SWELL
ALREADY PRESENT ON THE MALAGASY AND AFRICAN COASTS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO GROW. SATELLITE WAVE MEASUREMENTS CURRENTLY PROVIDE
VALUES OF MORE THAN 7M (I.E. MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF NEARLY 12M) NEAR
IDAI. WAVES OF 12 METRES ARE EXPECTED ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS DURING
LANDING, REACHING MAXIMUM HEIGHTS OF 20 METRES.=

>

2019-03-11 18:09

WTIO24 FMEE 111808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 958 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 42.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 170 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
18.5 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-11 13:18

WTIO31 FMEE 111225 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 42.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 16/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-11 13:18

WTIO30 FMEE 111225 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 42.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2019-03-11 12:43

WTIO31 FMEE 111225
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6 S / 42.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 955 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL TRES INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 16/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL D'IDAI EST DEVENUD E PLUS EN
PLUS SYMETRIQUE ET PLUS CLAIR SUR L'IMAGERIE SATELLITE IR ET VIS. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES SONT PARTICULIEREMENT IMPRESSIONNANTES.
CEPENDANT, LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK N'ONT PAS SIGNIFICATIVEMENT
AUGMENTE, NOTAMMENT A CAUSE DE SOMMETS NUAGEUX RELATIVEMENT PLUS
CHAUDS QUE PRECEDEMMENT, CE QUI POURRAIT ETRE LIE AU CYCLE DIURNE (CF
LE PRODUIT DIURNAL CLOCK DU CIMSS).

IDAI A COMMENCE A ACCELERE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, SITUEE AU SUD-OUEST. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST.
LA MAJORITE DES MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT EGALEMENT UNE POURSUITE
DE CE RECOURBEMENT JEUDI, DONNANT UN CAP NORD-OUEST AU CYCLONE AU
MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. A NOTER, IFS
(ECMWF) NE PREVOIT PAS UN RECOURBEMENT FINAL AUSSI MARQUE, AVEC
SEULEMENT UN VIRAGE FINAL VER L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST. LE TIMING ET LA
LOCALISATION DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE D'IDAI RESTENT AINSI
RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINS, D'AUTANT PLUS QUE LA DISPERSION ALONG-TRACK
A AUGMENTE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME PUISSE ENCORE SE RENFORCER, NOTAMMENT
MARDI ET MERCREDI AVEC LE PASSAGE SUR UNE GYRE OCEANIQUE CONCENTRANT
UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE ELEVE. AINSI, LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE POURRAIT MEME ETRE ATTEINT. LE SYSTEME EVOLUE SOUS UNE
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT
EGALEMENT VENIR MODULER L'INTENSITE D'IDAI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, UNE
LEGERE DE LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE COTE EQUATORIAL DEVRAIT FAIRE
PLAFONNER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. IDAI DEVRAIT ATTERRIR AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE,
TOUJOURS PREVU SUR LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE APPROXIMATIVEMENT ENTRE BEIRA
ET QUELIMANE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI. LES PREMIERES ESTIMATIONS DE
SURCOTE DEPASSENT LES 6M SUR LE DELTA DU ZAMBEZE ET SONT PROCHES DE
4M AUTOUR DE BEIRA ET QUELIMANE.=

>

2019-03-11 12:43

WTIO30 FMEE 111225
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 42.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 35.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, IDAI'S EYE BECAME MORE AND MORE SYMMETRICAL
AND CLEARER ON THE IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LAST VIS IMAGES
ARE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, THE DVORAK ESTIMATES DID NOT
INCREASE MUCH, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY WARMER CLOUD TOPS
THAN THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD BE LINKED TO DIURNAL CYCLE PROCESSES
(CF CIMSS' DIURNAL CLOCK).

IDAI BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE STRENGTHENING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST. FROM
WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AVAILABLE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS TURN COULD CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY, GIVING A NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO IDAI AT THE MOMENT OF ITS
IMPACT ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. ONLY IFS (ECMWF) SUGGEST A LESS
SHARPER TURN WITH A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD DIRECTION FROM FRIDAY. THE
TIMING AND LOCALISATION OF THE IMPACT THUS REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN, AS THE ALONG-TRACK MODEL DISPERSION ALSO INCREASED.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT
48 H AS IT PASSES OVER AN OCEANIC GYRE CONCENTRATING HIGH ENERGY
CONTENT. THUS, THE VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MIGHT BE
REACHED. THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS
BENEFITS FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO MODULATE IDAI'S
INTENSITY. FROM WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE
EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD REACH A PLATEAU.
IDAI SHOULD LAND AT THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDING,
WHICH IS STILL FORECASTED ON FRIDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE
BETWEEN BEIRA AND QUELIMANE APPROXIMATELY. THE FIRST STORM SURGE
ESTIMATIONS EXCEED 6M OVER THE ZAMBEZE'S DELTA AND ARE CLOSE TO 4M
AROUND BEIRA AND QUELIMANE.=

>

2019-03-11 12:15

WTIO24 FMEE 111216
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 955 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 42.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-11 07:06

WTIO31 FMEE 110630 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 43.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 16/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

>

2019-03-11 07:06

WTIO30 FMEE 110630 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 43.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

>

2019-03-11 07:03

WTIO31 FMEE 110630
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 43.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 960 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SO: 160 NO: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 16/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE A PEU
CHANGE AVEC MEME TEMPORAIREMENT DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK BRUTES A 6.0
MAIS AUSSI DES ASYMMETRIES TEMPORAIRES DE L'OEIL. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES DES PASSES GMI 0436Z ET SSMIS 0047Z MONTRENT UNE
STRUCTURE CENTRALE SOLIDE AVEC UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION RELATIVEMENT
LARGE. LES IMAGES GMI MONTRENT MEME UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION
SECONDAIRE S'ENROULANT PAR L'OUEST. AVEC LA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE EN COURS, CES ELEMENTS POURRAIENT ETRE LES INDICES DU
DECLENCHEMENT DE LA PREMIERE PHASE D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL. EN ACCORD AVEC CETTE ANALYSE, LES PROBABILITES DU PRODUIT
M-PERC DU CIMSS COMMENCENT A AUGMENTER.

IDAI A BIEN ENTAME SON DEMI-TOUR AU COURS DE LA NUIT DERNIERE. UNE
TENDANCE DE DEPLACEMENT SUD-OUEST EST MONTREE SUR LES DERNIERES
IMAGES DISPONIBLES, ALORS QUE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, SITUEE AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, PREND PEU A PEU LA MAIN SUR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR.
IDAI DEVRAIT AINSI ACCELERER PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES AVEC L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST. LES
MODELES DISPONIBLES PROPOSENT EGALEMENT UNE POURSUITE DE CE
RECOURBEMENT JEUDI, DONNANT UN CAP NORD-OUEST AU CYCLONE AU MOMENT DE
L'ATTERRISAGE SUR LES COTES MOZAMBICAINES. CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGEE PAR PRATIQUEMENT TOUS LES MODELES, A
L'EXCEPTION NOTABLE D'IFS QUI NE PREVOIT PAS LE VIRAGE FINAL VERS LE
NORD-OUEST. LE TIMING ET LA LOCALISATION DU POINT D'ATTERRISSAGE
D'IDAI RESTENT AINSI RELATIVEMENT INCERTAINS.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME PUISSE ENCORE SE RENFORCER, NOTAMMENT
AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H AVEC UN PASSAGE PREVU SUR UNE GYRE
OCEANIQUE CONCENTRANT UN CONTENU ENERGETIQUE ELEVE. LE SYSTEME EVOLUE
SOUS UNE DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT
EGALEMENT MODULER L'INTENSITE D'IDAI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, AVEC UNE
BAISSE NOTABLE DE LA DIVERGENCE COTE NORD, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PLAFONNER VOIRE MA ME DIMINUER LEGEREMENT SELON LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES D'INTENSITE DISPONIBLES. IDAI DEVRAIT RESTER
CEPENDANT UN CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AU MOMENT DE SON ATTERRISSAGE.

IDAI DEVRAIT ETRE UN SYSTEME TRES DANGEREUX LORS DE SON ATTERRISSAGE,
PREVU ACTUELLEMENT SUR LA COTE MOZAMBICAINE APPROXIMATIVEMENT ENTRE
BEIRA ET QUELIMANE. LES PREMIERES ESTIMATIONS DE SURCOTE DEPASSENT
LES 6M NOTAMMENT SUR LE DELTA DU ZAMBEZE.=

>

2019-03-11 07:03

WTIO30 FMEE 110630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 43.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 140 SW: 160 NW: 160
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 39.0 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 37.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 36.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 35.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT CHANGE WITH EVEN
BRUT DVORAK ESTIMATIONS REACHING 6.0 TEMPORARILY BUT ALSO SOME
TEMPORARY ASYMMETRIES IN THE EYE. THE MW IMAGES FROM THE 0436Z GMI
AND 0047Z SSMIS SWATHS SHOW A SOLID INNER CORE WITH A RELATIVELY WIDE
INNER CONVECTION RING. THE GMI IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SECONDARY
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. WITH ALSO
THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE, THESE ELEMENTS SUGGEST THAT
THE FIRST PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) MAY BE UNDER
WAY. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS ANALYSIS, THE CIMSS' M-PERC PROBABILITIES
BEGIN TO RISE.

IDAI HAS ALMOST FINISHED ITS U-TURN OVER LAST NIGHT. A SLOW
SOUTH-WESTERLY MOTION IS SUGGESTED BY THE LAST AVAILABLE IMAGES, AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, IS
GRADUALLY TAKING OVER THE STEERING FLOW. IDAI SHOULD THUS ACCELERATE
IN THE NEXT HOURS WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE MODELS
NOW SUGGEST ALSO THAT THIS TURN COULD CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, GIVING A
NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION TO IDAI AT THE MOMENT OF ITS IMPACT ON THE
MOZAMBICAN COASTS. THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS SHARED AMONGST THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, EXCEPT IFS (ECMWF) WHICH DO NOT FORECAST THE
FINAL NORTH-WESTWARD TURN. THE TIMING AND LOCALISATION OF THE IMPACT
POINT THUS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.

ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR THE
SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT
48 H AS IT PASSES OVER AN OCEANIC GYRE CONCENTRATING HIGH ENERGY
CONTENT. THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS
BENEFITS FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT. AN ERC COULD ALSO MODULATE IDAI'S INTENSITY. FROM
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE,
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD REACH A PLATEAU AND COULD EVEN DECREASE
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCES. IDAI SHOULD
NEVERTHELESS REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE TIME OF ITS
LANDING.

IDAI SHOULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM AT THE TIME OF ITS LANDING,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE BETWEEN
BEIRA AND QUELIMANE. THE FIRST STORM SURGE ESTIMATIONS EXCEED 6M,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ZAMBEZE'S DELTA.=

>

2019-03-11 06:23

WTIO24 FMEE 110622
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 960 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 43.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 06 UTC:
18.5 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-11 00:44

WTIO31 FMEE 110011 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-03-11 00:44

WTIO31 FMEE 110008 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-11 00:44

WTIO30 FMEE 110011 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

>

2019-03-11 00:44

WTIO30 FMEE 110008 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-11 00:08

WTIO31 FMEE 110011
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE SON
INTENSIFICATION. EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE, LES NOMBRES T BRUTS SONT
RESTES ENTRE 5 ET 6.0. POUR RESPECTER LES CONTRAINTES, LE CI EST
ESTIME A 5.0. LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A RECOURBE VERS LE SUD LENTEMENT.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, IDAI RESTE DANS DES
CONDITIONS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR QUASIMENT NUL. AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME
VA ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET PROGRESSIVEMENT
ACCELERER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST AVANT
D'ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN. CETTE
PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGEE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES.
MAIS LES MODA DES APPRA HENDENT DIFFICILEMENT LE VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST LIA AU CHANGEMENT DE FLUX DIRECTEUR. IL EN RESULTE UNE
INCERTITUDE IMPORTANTE A LA FOIS SUR LE TIMMING ET LE LIEU DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME PUISSE ENCORE SE RENFORCER ET
CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE A LEVEE. LE SYSTEME EVOLUE SOUS LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE
AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD.
LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON SUR CETTE ZONE DU CANAL. AINSI LA
PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE ATTERRISSE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST TRES FORTE.=

>

2019-03-11 00:08

WTIO30 FMEE 110011
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. IN
INFRARED IMAGERY, RAW T-NUMBERS ARE REMAINED BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6. TO
RESPECT DVORAK CONSTRAINT, CI IS ESTIMATED AT 5.0. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO RECURVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IDAI REMAINS IN CONDITIONS OF ALMOST NO
GUIDING FLOW. TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, IDAI SHOULD BEND WESTWARD
BEFORE TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BUT MODELS
APPREHEND WITH DIFFICULTY THE CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD LINKED TO THE
STEERING FLOW CHANGING. SO, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE
LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL IS HIGH.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AND THEN KEEP ON ITS HIGH INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM,
SHOULD EVOLVE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY
GOOD. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A
HIGH INTENSITY MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS VERY HIGH.=

>

2019-03-11 00:05

WTIO31 FMEE 110008
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 968 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SO: 220 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
24H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 16/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME A CONTINUE SON
INTENSIFICATION. EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE, LES NOMBRES T BRUTS SONT
RESTES ENTRE 5 ET 6.0. POUR RESPECTER LES CONTRAINTES, LE CI EST
ESTIME A 5.0. LE SYSTEME COMMENCE A RECOURBE VERS LE SUD LENTEMENT.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, IDAI RESTE DANS DES
CONDITIONS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR QUASIMENT NUL. AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME
VA ORIENTE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST ET PROGRESSIVEMENT
ACCELERER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST AVANT
D'ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE VENDREDI MATIN. CETTE
PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGEE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES.
MAIS LES MODA DES APPRA HENDENT DIFFICILEMENT LE VIRAGE VERS LE
SUD-OUEST LIA AU CHANGEMENT DE FLUX DIRECTEUR. IL EN RESULTE UNE
INCERTITUDE IMPORTANTE A LA FOIS SUR LE TIMMING ET LE LIEU DE
L'ATTERRISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME PUISSE ENCORE SE RENFORCER ET
CONSERVER UNE INTENSITE A LEVEE. LE SYSTEME EVOLUE SOUS LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE
AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD.
LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON SUR CETTE ZONE DU CANAL. AINSI LA
PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE ATTERRISSE SUR LES COTES DU
MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST TRES FORTE.=

>

2019-03-11 00:05

WTIO30 FMEE 110008
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 220 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 38.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/16 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 33.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. IN
INFRARED IMAGERY, RAW T-NUMBERS ARE REMAINED BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6. TO
RESPECT DVORAK CONSTRAINT, CI IS ESTIMATED AT 5.0. THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO RECURVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IDAI REMAINS IN CONDITIONS OF ALMOST NO
GUIDING FLOW. TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND
PROGRESSIVELY ACCELERATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING MID
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, IDAI SHOULD BEND WESTWARD
BEFORE TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BUT MODELS
APPREHEND WITH DIFFICULTY THE CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD LINKED TO THE
STEERING FLOW CHANGING. SO, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE
LOCATION OF THE LANDFALL IS HIGH.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION AND THEN KEEP ON ITS HIGH INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM,
SHOULD EVOLVE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY
GOOD. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A
HIGH INTENSITY MAKES LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS VERY HIGH.=

>

2019-03-11 00:03

WTIO24 FMEE 110006
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 11/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 968 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 45 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
18.0 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/12 AT 00 UTC:
18.6 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-10 18:10

WTIO31 FMEE 101811 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-10 18:10

WTIO30 FMEE 101811 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

>

2019-03-10 18:10

WTIO24 FMEE 101809
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2019
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/03/2019 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 350 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.4 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 18 UTC:
18.2 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-10 18:08

WTIO31 FMEE 101811
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/11/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 43.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 13/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
120H: 15/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LE SYSTEME S'EST BIEN INTENSIFIE. UN
OEIL EST APPARU EN IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE A PARTIR DE 1400Z. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MONTRENT DES NOMBRES T BRUTS COMPRIS ENTRE 5.5 ET 6.
POUR RESPECTER LES CONTRAINTES, LE CI EST ESTIME A 4.5-. EN ACCORD
AVEC L'IMAGERIE TRADITIONNELLE, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 91 GHZ DE 1544Z
MONTRE UNE AMELIORATION DE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE AVEC UN ANNEAU
CENTRALE MAINTENANT BIEN FORMA .

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, IDAI RESTE DANS DES
CONDITIONS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR QUASIMENT NUL. IL FAUT ATTENDRE DEMAIN
POUR QUE LE SYSTEME REPRENNE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS
ACCA LERER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER VERS L'OUEST AVANT
D'ATTERRIR SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE JEUDI SOIR. CETTE PHILOSOPHIE
DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGEE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES. MAIS LES MODA
DES APPRA HENDENT DIFFICILEMENT LE VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST LIA AU
CHANGEMENT DE FLUX DIRECTEUR. IL EN RESULTE UNE INCERTITUDE
IMPORTANTE A LA FOIS SUR LE TIMMING ET LE LIEU DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME SE RENFORCE GRADUELLEMENT. LE SYSTEME
EVOLUE SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIE D'UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE
NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD. LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON
SUR CETTE ZONE DU CANAL. LA PERIODE DE DEPLACEMENT FAIBLE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24H VA TOUTEFOIS CONSOMMER LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE
L'OCEAN ET LIMITERA TEMPORAIREMENT L'INTENSIFICATION AVANT LA REPRISE
DU DEPLACEMENT DE IDAI. AINSI LA PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE
ATTERRISSE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST
TRES FORTE.=

>

2019-03-10 18:08

WTIO30 FMEE 101811
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 43.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 36.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED. IN INFRARED
IMAGERY, AN EYE FEATURE IS APPEARED AT 1400Z. THE LAST IMAGERIES SHOW
T-NUMBERS BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6. TO RESPECT DVORAK CONSTRAINT, CI IS
ESTIMATED AT 4.5-. ACCORDING WITH THE TRADITIONAL IMAGERY, 1544Z 91
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH A
CENTRAL RING OF CONVECTION WELL FORMED.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, IDAI REMAINS IN CONDITIONS OF ALMOST NO
GUIDING FLOW. IT IS NECESSARY TO WAIT TOMORROW FOR THE SYSTEM TO
RESUME A SOUTWESTWARD TRACK ACCELERATING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY, IDAI SHOULD BEND WESTWARD BEFORE TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BUT MODELS APPREHEND WITH
DIFFICULTY THE CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD LINKED TO THE STEERING FLOW
CHANGING. SO, THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF
THE LANDFALL IS HIGH.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM, SHOULD EVOLVE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY GOOD. THE PERIOD OF LIMITED DISPLACEMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HOWEVER CONSUME THE OCEAN'S ENERGY
POTENTIAL AND WILL TEMPORARILY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE
RESUMPTION OF THE IDAI'S DISPLACEMENT. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A HIGH INTENSITY MAKES LANDFALL
OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS VERY HIGH.=

>

2019-03-10 12:45

WTIO31 FMEE 101211 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 42.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2019-03-10 12:45

WTIO30 FMEE 101211 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 42.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

>

2019-03-10 12:23

WTIO31 FMEE 101211
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 42.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 200 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 11/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 13/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION DE BANDE INCURVEE SE MAINTIENT MAIS PRESENTE UNE
FORTE FLUCTUATION DE LA CONVECTION. AINSI, UN AMAS CONVECTIF BIEN
MARQUE S'EST DECLENCHE AU COURS DE LA DERNIERE HEURE A L'EST DU
CENTRE. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK DE 3.5- PEUT ETRE FAITE, LAISSANT IDAI A
LA LIMITE SUPERIEURE DU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE, AVEC DES
VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 45KT. LE CENTRE ESTIME DE IDAI SE SITUE A
12UTC A 30KM AU SUD DE L'ILE DE JUAN DE NOVA.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
IDAI RESTE DANS DES CONDITIONS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR QUASIMENT NUL. IL
FAUT ATTENDRE PRES DE 24H POUR QUE LE SYSTEME REPRENNE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE MIEUX DEFINIE EN DIRECTION DU OUEST-SUD-OUEST. EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME VA ALORS ACCELERER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. UN
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EST ENVISAGE JEUDI. CETTE
PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGEE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE EXISTE SUR LE TIMING ET UNE DISPERSION PLUS AU
SUD POSSIBLE SUR LE LIEU DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME SE RENFORCE AVEC UN TAUX
D'INTENSIFICATION LUI PERMETTANT D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL A ECHEANCE DE 24H. LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER SOUS LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE
AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD.
LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON SUR CETTE ZONE DU CANAL. LA
PERIODE DE DEPLACEMENT FAIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H VA
TOUTEFOIS CONSOMMER LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN ET LIMITERA
TEMPORAIREMENT L'INTENSIFICATION AVANT LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT DE
IDAI. AINSI LA PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE ATTERRISSE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST TRES FORTE.=

>

2019-03-10 12:23

WTIO30 FMEE 101211
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 42.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 200 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/11 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 35.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

THE CURVED BAND PATTERN IS MAINTAINED BUT SHOWS A STRONG FLUCTUATION
IN CONVECTION. SO, A WELL-MARKED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS TRIGGERED IN
THE LAST HOUR EAST OF THE CENTER. A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.5- CAN BE
DONE, LEAVING IDAI AT THE UPPER LIMIT OF THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
THRESHOLD, WITH ESTIMATED WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 45KT. AT 12UTC,
IDAI'S ESTIMATED CENTRE IS LOCATED AT 30KM SOUTH OF NOVA JUAN ISLAND.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IDAI REMAINS IN
CONDITIONS OF ALMOST NO GUIDING FLOW. IT IS NECESSARY TO WAIT ALMOST
24 HOURS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RESUME A BETTER DEFINED TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. AT THE END OF MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERING BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TIMING AND DISPERSION FURTHER SOUTH AT THE LANDFALL AREA.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH AN INTENSIFICATION RATE ALLOWING IT TO REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM, SHOULD EVOLVE
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A
GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY GOOD. THE
PERIOD OF LIMITED DISPLACEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HOWEVER
CONSUME THE OCEAN'S ENERGY POTENTIAL AND WILL TEMPORARILY LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE RESUMPTION OF THE IDAI'S DISPLACEMENT. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A HIGH
INTENSITY LANDS OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS VERY HIGH.=

>

2019-03-10 12:01

WTIO24 FMEE 101202
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 42.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.5 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 12 UTC:
17.7 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-10 07:08

WTIO31 FMEE 100708 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 42.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 11/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

>

2019-03-10 07:08

WTIO30 FMEE 100708 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 42.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/11 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

>

2019-03-10 07:05

WTIO31 FMEE 100708
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 42.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 11/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 11/03/2019 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 12/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 12/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 13/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE CONTINUE DE
SE PRESENTER EN CONFIGURATION DE BANDE INCURVEE, AVEC UNE FORTE
CONVECTION ELOIGNEE DU CENTRE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-EST SUR LA COTE
MALGACHE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0556UTC PERMET DE VALIDER L'ANALYSE
DVORAK DE 3.0+ AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT.

AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET LE
RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, LA TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
IDAI SE TROUVE DANS DES CONDITIONS DE FLUX DIRECTEUR QUASIMENT NUL.
IL FAUT ATTENDRE PRES DE 30H POUR QUE LE SYSTEME REPRENNE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE MIEUX DEFINIE EN DIRECTION DU OUEST-SUD-OUEST. EN FIN DE
JOURNEE DE LUNDI, LE SYSTEME VA ALORS ACCELERER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. UN
ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE EST ENVISAGE JEUDI. CETTE
PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGEE PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
MAIS UNE INCERTITUDE EXISTE SUR LE TIMING ET UNE DISPERSION PLUS AU
SUD POSSIBLE SUR LE LIEU DE L'ATTERRISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME SE RENFORCE AVEC UN TAUX
D'INTENSIFICATION LUI PERMETTANT D'ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL A ECHEANCE DE 24H. LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER SOUS LA DORSALE
D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT FAIBLE
AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD.
LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON SUR CETTE ZONE DU CANAL. LA
PERIODE DE DEPLACEMENT FAIBLE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 30H VA
TOUTEFOIS CONSOMMER LE POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE DE L'OCEAN ET LIMITERA
TEMPORAIRMENT L'INTENSIFICATION AVANT LA REPRISE DU DEPLACEMENT DE
IDAI. AINSI LA PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE ATTERRISSE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST TRES FORTE.=

>

2019-03-10 07:05

WTIO30 FMEE 100708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 42.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/10 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/11 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/11 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/12 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 38.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 35.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 33.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN A
CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH STRONG CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN
THE NORTHEAST SECTOR ON THE MALAGASY COAST. THE 0556UTC ASCAT SWATH
ALLOWS TO VALIDATE THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 3.0+ WITH WINDS OF ABOUT
40KT.

WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IDAI IS IN
CONDITIONS OF ALMOST NO GUIDING FLOW. IT IS NECESSARY TO WAIT ALMOST
30 HOURS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RESUME A BETTER DEFINED TRACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. AT THE END OF MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERING BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE TIMING AND DISPERSION FURTHER SOUTH AT THE LANDFALL AREA.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION WITH AN INTENSIFICATION RATE ALLOWING IT TO REACH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THRESHOLD WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM, SHOULD EVOLVE
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A
GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY GOOD. THE
PERIOD OF LIMITED DISPLACEMENT OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS WILL HOWEVER
CONSUME THE OCEAN'S ENERGY POTENTIAL AND WILL TEMPORARILY LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE RESUMPTION OF THE IDAI'S DISPLACEMENT. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A HIGH
INTENSITY LANDS OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS VERY HIGH.=

>

2019-03-10 06:20

WTIO24 FMEE 100619
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2019
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/03/2019 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 42.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 280 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/10 AT 18 UTC:
17.4 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 06 UTC:
17.5 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2019-03-10 00:59

WTIO31 FMEE 100100 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 42.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 11/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-03-10 00:59

WTIO30 FMEE 100100 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 42.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/10 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/11 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

>

2019-03-10 00:57

WTIO31 FMEE 100100
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/11/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 10/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 42.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 10/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 11/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 11/03/2019 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 12/03/2019 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 12/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 13/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 15/03/2019 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE SEMBLE MIEUX
S'ORGANISER PRES DU CENTRE, ET PRESENTE MAINTENANT UNE BANDE INCURVEE
DE 07/08 TOUR. L'INTENSITE ATTEINTE A DONC PERMIS SON BAPTEME A 23Z.
DEPUIS 18Z LE SYSTEME A RALENTI SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION DE
L'EST, LAISSANT PRESAGER D'UN VIRAGE EN COURS DE JOURNA E.

AUJOURD'HUI, LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE VA FAIBLIR TANDIS QUE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT SE RENFORCER AU SUD DU CANAL. LE SYSTEME
A COMMENCE A RALENTIR, IL DEVRAIT ENSUITE INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME VA ALORS ACCELERER
VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LES CA TES DU MOZAMBIQUE EST ENVISAGE JEUDI.
CETTE PHILOSOPHIE DE TRAJECTOIRE EST PARTAGA E PAR L'ENSEMBLE DES
MODELES MAIS LA LONGITUDE DU VIRAGE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST RESTE
ENCORE UN PEU INCERTAINE AVEC UNE DISPERSION DES MODELES SUR LA
PROGRESSION VERS L'OUEST, AINSI QUE SUR LA ZONE ET LE TIMING
D'ATTERISSAGE.

SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES POUR QUE LE SYSTEME SE RENFORCE. LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE ET BENEFICIER D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
DE VENT FAIBLE AVEC UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NOTAMMENT DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD. LE CONTENU ENERGETIQUE EST TRES BON SUR CETTE ZONE DU
CANAL. AINSI LA PROBABILITE QU'UN SYSTEME MATURE ATTERRISSE SUR LES
COTES DU MOZAMBIQUE AVEC UNE INTENSITE ELEVEE EST TRES FORTE.=

>

2019-03-10 00:57

WTIO30 FMEE 100100
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/10 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 42.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/10 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/11 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/11 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/12 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/12 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/13 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/14 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 36.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/15 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 34.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE ORGANISATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED, INTO A 07/08 BI PATTERN. SO THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED IDAI AT 23Z.
SINCE 18Z THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWNED DOWN, AS IT IS EXPECTED TO CURVED IN
THE DAYTIME.

TODAY, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGAN TO SLOW DOWN AND SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD STEERING BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO LAND OVER MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINES THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT THE LONGITUDE OF THE
TURN WESTSOUTHWESTWARD REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, WITH A DISPERSAL
OF THE MODELE IN THE WESTWARDS MOTION, AND ALSO THE AREA AND TIMING
OF THE LANDFALL.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM, SHOULD EVOLVE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD POLERWARD DIVERGENCE.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS VERY GOOD. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT A MATURE SYSTEM WITH A HIGH INTENSITY LANDS OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS
VERY HIGH.=

>

2019-03-10 00:44

WTIO24 FMEE 100021
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/03/2019
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 10/03/2019 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IDAI) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 42.3 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/10 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2019/03/11 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>