Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BOUCHRA-18
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 150 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE IR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 200348Z 89GHZ

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 150 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE IR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 200348Z 89GHZ
MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS IN LINE
WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM
PGTW, AND AGREES WITH A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS HIGH
(25-30 KTS) AND IS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LLCC
AND THE NEAREST CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HOWEVER, IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AND COOLING
(26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 04S HAS SLOWED AND TURNED
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION HAS
DECREASED AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH
SLIGHT NORTH AND SOUTH VARIATIONS DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
STEERING FLOW. THE HIGH VWS AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DESPITE
THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 16 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.9S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.1S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
EIR LOOP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 192158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BELOW THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND AGREES WITH THE
192311Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 39 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS, FURTHER
SEPARATING THE LLCC AND THE CONVECTION. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRUGGLING CONVECTION WITH THE HIGH VWS.
TC 04S HAS SLOWED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AS THE LLCC
SEPARATES FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS STEERED BY SLOWER, LOWER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. THE LLCC AND CONVECTION ARE ALREADY WELL
SEPARATED, AND TC 04S WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE
TO 25C AFTER TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24
UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 200018
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 3 (EX-BOUCHRA) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 78.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UP TO 350 TO 400
NM FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.


FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2018/11/21 AT 00 UTC:
16.2 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC
LA REUNION ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO
THE DAILY BULLETIN AWIO20 AND TO THE SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR METAREA
VIII(S) FQIO26.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 192100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.3S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 191641Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS, AND A FEW 40-44 KT WIND BARBS,
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AGREES WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AND IS
BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) AND THE 191638Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS NOT ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEADING TO SLIGHT WEAKENING.
TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS
THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE
TO 25C AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36
UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191858

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 79.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 998 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 250 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SO: 180 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
24H: 20/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
36H: 21/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
48H: 21/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 22/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 22/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.0 CI=3.0

LE RENFORCEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ASSOCIE A DE
D'ADVECTION D'AIR TRES SEC SUR UNE GRANDE EPAISSEUR DE LA TROPOSPHERE
A COMPLETEMENT DESTRUCTURE LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE. LES
DIFFERENTES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECUES DEPUIS CET APRES-MIDI
ILLUSTRENT UN DECOUPLAGE RAPIDE ENTRE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES ET L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE RESIDUELLE. LES 2 PASS ASCAT DE LA
SOIREE ONT PERMIS D'EN SAVOIR PLUS SUR L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DE
BOUCHRA. DES VENTS DE 38 KT ONT ETE RELEVES ET CES VENTS FORTS SONT
UNIQUEMENT PRESENTS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE SE
BASE ESSENTIELLEMENT SUR LES VENTS ASCAT ET EST EN BON ACCORD AVEC
LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

AVEC LA DESTRUCTURATION EN COURS, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR EST DEJA REPASSE
A DES NIVEAUX INFERIEURS ET LA TRAJECTOIRE EST MAINTENANT ORIENTEE A
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL QUI DEVRAIT RAPIDEMENT DEVENIR
EX-BOUCHRA, VA SE COMBLER AU COURS DES JOURS SUIVANTS EN SE DEPLACANT
EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191858

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 79.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 180 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/20 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H: 2018/11/20 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, REMNANT LOW
36H: 2018/11/21 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2018/11/21 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/11/22 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/22 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=3.0

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION HAVE
COMPLETELY DESTROYED BOUCHRA'S CIRCULATION. MW IMAGERY SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS QUICKLY DECOUPLING
WITH THE RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TWO ASCAT PASS TONIGHT WERE
HELPFUL TO ASSESS BOTH INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. ASCAT READS WINDS UP
TO 38 KT AND STRONG WINDS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA THAT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH BOTH AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

WITH THE ONGOING COLLAPSE OF THE CIRCULATION, THE STEERING LEVEL HAS
ALREADY SHIFT TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL WITH A NEWLY ESTABLISHED
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS MOTION. THE REMNANT OF THE ANTICIPATED
EX-BOUCHRA SHOULD GRADUALLY FILLED UP AS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191823
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 79.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UP TO 350 TO 400
NM FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 135 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 06 UTC:
16.0 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 18 UTC:
16.4 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, REMNANT LOW

OTHER INFORMATION:
RAPID WEAKENING TREND UNDERWAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 191500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 191159Z F-18
SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 25C. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191231

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.4 S / 80.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 70 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/11/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/11/2018 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 21/11/2018 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
48H: 21/11/2018 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 22/11/2018 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 22/11/2018 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0 CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EN LIEN AVEC
BOUCHRA S'EST EFFONDREE. SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DU
VENT, LA CONVECTION SE LIMITE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST DU SYSTEME.
COMME PREVUE, L'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA EST A LA BAISSE AVEC UNE
ESTIMATION DE VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BOUCHRA EST TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE STRUCTURES
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. SON DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST SE MAINTIENT ENCORE PUIS S'ORIENTE UN PEU PLUS VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST EN JOURNEE DE MARDI. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI SUITE A
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME SERA PLUS CONTROLEE
PAR LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES : LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL
S'ORIENTERA GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST. PAR LA SUITE, BOUCHRA
REPRENDRA UNE COMPOSANTE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ALORS QU'IL NE DEVRAIT PLUS
ETRE QU'UNE FAIBLE CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE.

AVEC L'APPROCHE DU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AFFECTE FRANCHEMENT LE SYSTEME EN CETTE FIN DE
JOURNEE DE LUNDI. SOUS L'EFFET DE CE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST,
L'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA DEVRAIT CONTINUER A DIMINUER RAPIDEMENT AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. LORS DE SON DEPLACEMENT, BOUCHRA
TRANSITE SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES LIMITANT GRANDEMENT LA CONVECTION
AU SEIN DU SYSTEME. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE POURSUIVANT, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PASSER LE SEUIL DE DEPRESSION TROPICALE DANS LES 36 HEURES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191231

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 80.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 70 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/20 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/20 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/21 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/11/21 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/11/22 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/22 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO BOUCHRA HAS
COLLAPSED. DUE TO THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. AS EXPECTED, THE BOUCHRA'S
INTENSITY IS SEEN DOWNWARDS WITH AN ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF
AROUND 40KT.

THE BOUCHRA'S TRACK IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
STRUCTURES. ITS GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT IS STILL MAINTAINED
AND THEN TURNS WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWING
ITS WEAKENING, THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE MORE CONTROLLED BY THE
STEERING FLOW OF LOW LEVEL, TAKING A WESTWARD TRACK. LATER, THE
SYSTEM DRIVE A GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, WHILE THE BOUCHRA
SHOULD HAVE BECAME A WEAK RESIDUAL LOW.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST, THE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR IS CLEARLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THIS NORTHWEST WINDSHEAR, THE BOUCHRA INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING ITS
MOVEMENT, BOUCHRA TRANSITS ON COOLER WATERS GREATLY LIMITING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AS THE WEAKENING CONTINUES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THRESHOLD WITHIN 36 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 191208
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 80.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN A 150 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, REACHING 360 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 00 UTC:
15.9 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 12 UTC:
16.6 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 190900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.0S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.1S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 674 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190408Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND AND DEFINED CENTER,
HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS DECOUPLED DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED IN A
190409Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 50 TO 55
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS RECENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 25C. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 167NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE,
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z,
192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190616

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/3/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.6 S / 80.7 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 280 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 90 NO: 40
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/11/2018 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 21/11/2018 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 21/11/2018 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 22/11/2018 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/11/2018 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 24/11/2018 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION EN CDO S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6
HEURES MAIS AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX QUI SE RECHAUFFENT. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES DE 0052UTC PERMETTENT DE SUPPOSER UNE LEGERE INTRUSION
D'AIR SEC DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK DE 3.5 EST
MAINTENUE, AVEC UNE PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 0408UTC ESTIMANT DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX DE PLUS DE 45KT.

LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES CONTINUENT DE GOUVERNER LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE BOUCHRA, TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE STRUCTURES DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. UN DEPLACEMENT LENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-OUEST SE MAINTIENT LUNDI ET MARDI, POUVANT PRESENTER QUELQUES
VARIATIONS AU COURS DE CETTE PERIODE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI AVEC
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DES BASSES COUCHES
DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT LA MAIN, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMENER LE
MINIMUM RESIDUEL A S'ORIENTER GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST. PAR LA
SUITE, BOUCHRA REPRENDRA UNE COMPOSANTE OUEST-SUD-OUEST ALORS QU'IL
NE DEVRAIT PLUS ETRE QU'UNE FAIBLE CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE.

BOUCHRA RESTE PROTEGE SOUS L'AXE DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN
BENEFICIANT D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE COTE SUD. AVEC L'APPROCHE DU
TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST, DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
AFFECTE LE SYSTEME ET L'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA DEVRAIT DONC PLAFONNER
PENDANT ENCORE LES 6 PROCHAINES HEURES. SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT
ET AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT PEU RAPIDE, BOUCHRA DEVRAIT PERDRE RAPIDEMENT
EN INTENSITE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES. L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SE
POURSUIVANT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER LE SEUIL DE DEPRESSION
TROPICALE DANS LES 48 HEURES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190616

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 80.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 280 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 90 NW: 40
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/19 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/20 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/20 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/21 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/11/21 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/22 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/23 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/24 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CDO PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT WITH
CLOUDY SUMMITS WARMING. THE 0052UTC MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHT
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS OF 3.5 IS MAINTAINED, WITH A PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH OF 0408UTC
ESTIMATING MAXIMUM WINDS OF MORE THAN 45KT.

HIGH SUBTROPICAL PRESSURES CONTINUE TO GOVERN THE BOUCHRA'S TRACK,
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVELS STRUCTURES. A SLOW GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT CONTINUES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH SOME
CHANGES. FROM WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW AND DRIVE A GRADUAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, WHILE THE BOUCHRA SHOULD HAVE BECAME A WEAK
RESIDUAL LOW.

BOUCHRA REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHILE BENEFITING FROM A
VERY GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TALWEG FROM THE WEST, THE MID-LEVEL WINDSHEAR AFFECTS THE
SYSTEM AND THE BOUCHRA'S INTENSITY IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. UNDER THE EFFECT OF VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND WITH SLOW MOVEMENT, BOUCHRA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE WEAKENING
CONTINUES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THRESHOLD
WITHIN 48 HOURS.IS INTENSITY FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE ICNW
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190604
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 80.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, REACHING 280
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 25 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.5 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 190300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.6S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.6S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.7S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.7S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 182341Z GMI
36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 55 KTS, BASED ON
A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KTS)
FROM KNES, T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (27 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 KTS
THROUGH TAU 24 IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU
24, VWS WILL INCREASE, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE, AND SSTS
WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AFTER TAU 48, RESULTING IN
THE STEADY WEAKENING OF TC 04S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190031

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/3/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.3 S / 81.1 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT UN DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 110 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/11/2018 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/11/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/11/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 21/11/2018 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 21/11/2018 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 22/11/2018 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/11/2018 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 24/11/2018 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DU CDO SONT
RESTES TRES FROIDS, GRACE AU MAINTIEN D'UNE CONVECTION INTENSE PRES
DU CENTRE. L'ANALYSE DE DVORAK EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS
SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE
2210Z MONTRE CEPENDANT UNE STRUCTURE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE QUI RESTE
RELATIVEMENT PEU ORGANISEE AVEC DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE QUADRANT
NORD-OUEST. AU VU DE CETTE IMAGE ET EN ACCORD AVEC L'ANALYSE DE
CERTAINS MODELES DONT IFS, UN CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE POURRAIT MEME DEJA COMMENCER A AFFECTER BOUCHRA.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. AUJOURD'HUI, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE LA TEMPETE
DEVRAIT RESTER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
: UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVA E D'UN THALWEG PAR L'OUEST PILOTENT
UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST. A PARTIR DE CE
SOIR, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT
REDESCENDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES BASSES-COUCHES, CE QUI DEVRAIT
AMENER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL A BIFURQUER GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST.
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LA DISPERSION AUGMENTE ALORS QUE BOUCHRA NE
DEVRAIT PLUS ETRE QU'UNE FAIBLE CIRCULATION RESIDUELLE.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES, BOUCHRA RESTE PROTEGE SOUS L'AXE DE
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN BENEFICIANT D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE COTE
SUD, QUI DEVRAIT ETRE ENCORE RENFORCEE TEMPORAIREMENT PAR L'APPROCHE
DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST. CEPENDANT, CERTAINS MODELES
SUGGERENT QUE DU CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AFFECTE DEJA LE
SYSTEME. L'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA DEVRAIT DONC PLAFONNER DANS LES
HEURES A VENIR.
A PARTIR DE CETTE APRES-MIDI, UNE HAUSSE IMPORTANTE DU CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL PROFOND DE NORD PUIS DE NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ET DEVRAIT
PROVOQUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE ET DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST PRINCIPALEMENT BASEE SUR LE
CONSENSUS ICNW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190031

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 81.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/19 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/20 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/20 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/21 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/11/21 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/22 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/23 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/24 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS REMAINED VERY COLD DUE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. 2210Z SSMIS MW
IMAGE SHOWS HOWEVER THAT THE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE REMAINS LITTLE
ORGANIZED WITH DRY AIR LOCATED NEAR THE INNER-CORE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. GIVEN THIS IMAGE AND THE LAST MODELS ANALYSIS
INCLUDING IFS, A NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR COULD EVEN BEGIN TO AFFECT
BOUCHRA.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TODAY, THE STORM SHOULD KEEP ON GOING
SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVELS
STRUCTURES : A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. FROM TONIGHT, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, THE
LOW-LEVELS SHOULD TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW AND DRIVE A GRADUAL
WESTWARD TURN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL-UP. FROM FRIDAY, THE MODEL
DISPERSION INCREASES AS BOUCHRA SHOULD HAVE BECAME A WEAK RESIDUAL
LOW.

DURING THE NEXT HOURS, BOUCHRA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WHILE BENEFITING FROM A VERY GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, THAT COULD EVEN BE STRENGTHENED BY THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. BOUCHRA'S
INTENSITY IS THUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FROM THIS AFTERNOON, A NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY AND DEFINITIVELY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON THE
ICNW INTENSITY CONSENSUS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 190021
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 81.1 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, REACHING 225
NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 12 UTC:
15.0 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/20 AT 00 UTC:
15.9 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 182100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.0S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 181557Z AMSU
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 181541Z OSCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS, BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (PGTW) AND T3.5
(FMEE/KNES). THIS ASSESSMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER A REGION
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES C. TC 04S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24,
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE,
TOGETHER WITH DECREASING SSTS, RESULTING IN THE STEADY WEAKENING
OF TC 04S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
TURNING TOWARD THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND BEYOND, SO THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDNECE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181821

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/3/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.7 S / 82.1 E
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :26 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/11/2018 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/11/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 21/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 21/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/11/2018 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 23/11/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0+;CI=3.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERS 6H, DES POUSSEES DE CONVECTION SE SONT
PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE DE BOUCHRA. CELLES-CI ONT TRANSFORME LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN UN PETIT CDO, RENDANT AINSI L'ESTIMATION
DVORAK MOINS OBJECTIVE. LES PASSES ASCAT DE LA SOIREE SONT ENCORE
PASSEES A L'EST DU SYSTEME, LES ESTIMATIONS D'EXTENSIONS DE VENT
RESTENT DONC RELATIVEMENT GROSSIERES. LES BANDES DE CIRRUS PRESENTES
SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE EST TEMOIGNENT TOUJOURS DE LA FORTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE ACTUELLEMENT SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES
PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, LA TRAJECTOIRE DE LA
TEMPETE DEVRAIT RESTER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES STRUCTURES DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE : UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET L'ARRIVA E D'UN THALWEG PAR
L'OUEST PILOTENT UN DEPLACEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST. A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR, AVEC L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME, LE FLUX
DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REDESCENDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT DANS LES
BASSES-COUCHES, CE QUI DEVRAIT AMENER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL A BIFURQUER
GRADUELLEMENT VERS L'OUEST.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H, BOUCHRA RESTE PROTEGE SOUS L'AXE DE LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE EN BENEFICIANT D'UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE COTE
SUD, QUI DEVRAIT ETRE ENCORE RENFORCEE TEMPORAIREMENT PAR L'APPROCHE
DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR L'OUEST. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT AINSI PROFITER
DE CETTE COURTE FENETRE POUR S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE UN PEU. TOUTEFOIS
LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO LAISSE TOUJOURS PLANER UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE MAX QUI SERA FINALEMENT ATTEINTE. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LE CONSENSUS ICNW QUI NE
PROPOSENT PAS D'INTENSIFICATION MARQUEE SUR LA FENETRE FAVORABLE.

EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE, UNE HAUSSE IMPORTANTE
DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL PROFOND DE NORD PUIS DE NORD-OUEST EST
ATTENDUE ET DEVRAIT PROVOQUER L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181821

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 82.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/19 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/19 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/20 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 77.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/20 18 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/21 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/21 18 UTC: 16.8 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/22 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/23 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+;CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURED NEAR THE CENTER
OF BOUCHRA. THE CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED TO BECOME A SMALL CDO, MAKING
THE DVORAK ESTIMATION LESS OBJECTIVE. THE ASCAT EVENING SWATHS PASSED
ONCE AGAIN EAST OF THE SYSTEM, THE ESTIMATIONS OF THE EXTENSIONS OF
WINDS THUS REMAIN RATHER COARSE. THE CIRRUS ARCS LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE SHOW THE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FIRST, THE STORM SHOULD KEEP ON GOING
SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURROUNDING MID-LEVELS
STRUCTURES : A RIDGE IN THE EAST AND THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP TROUGH
FROM THE WEST. FROM TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, THE LOW-LEVELS SHOULD TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW AND DRIVE A
GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL-UP.

DURING THE NEXT 12H, BOUCHRA SHOULD REMAIN SHIELDED FROM THE VWS
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHILE BENEFITING FROM A VERY GOOD POLEWARD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THAT COULD EVEN BE STRENGTHENED BY THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM COULD THUS BENEFIT FROM
THIS SHORT WINDOW TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE FURTHER. HOWEVER, THE
ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVELS DRY AIR CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
MAXIMUM INTENSITY THAT WILL FINALLY BE REACHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE ICNW INTENSITY CONSENSUS, WHICH DOES NOT SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAVORABLE PERIOD.

FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT, A NORTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO DEFINITIVELY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181809
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 82.1 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, REACHING 200
NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 06 UTC:
14.9 S / 80.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 79.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 181500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
TOP OF THE LLCC IN ADDITION TO THE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 181218Z SSMIS 37 GHZ COLOR-COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (5-15 KNOTS), AND FAVORABLE SSTS (27 CELSIUS).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST WITH AN EXTENSION
TO THE SOUTH OF TC 04S. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OFFSET BY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26-27 CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW OHC WILL ALLOW
TC BOUCHRA TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS AND THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, NORTHWESTERLY VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CAUSING
STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 60, CONTRIBUTING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER
(APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT TAU 48). DESPITE THE ONE
OUTLIER, THERE IS LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z
AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181259

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/3/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.1 S / 83.6 E
(TREIZE DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SO: 200 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/11/2018 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/11/2018 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 80.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 20/11/2018 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/11/2018 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 21/11/2018 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/11/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/11/2018 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 23/11/2018 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DU SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE CET APRES-MIDI
AVEC UN ENROULEMENT PLUS PRONONCE DE LA BANDE INCURVEE ET
L'APPARITION DEPUIS 10 UTC, D'UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE TRES PRES DU
CENTRE SUGGERANT QU'UN PETIT COEUR INTERNE EST ENTRAIN DE SE
CONSTITUER. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES VONT TOUJOURS DE 40 KT
A 50 KT (CI DE 3.0 A 3.5). COMPTE TENU DES ELEMENTS CI-DESSUS,
L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE A 50 KT. LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST
SPECTACULAIRE SURTOUT COTE NORD ET VA SE RENFORCER DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES COTE SUD AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG D'ALTITUDE PAR
LE SUD-OUEST.

LE SYSTEME A INCURVE VERS LE SUD-OUEST CET APRES-MIDI SUR LA FACADE
NORD-OUEST DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS
SUD-OUEST DANS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PROCHE DU NIVEAU 500 HPA, EST
ENVISAGEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H EN DIRECTION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE GENEREE PAR UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A
MOYENNE TROPO SITUEE ACTUELLEMENT A L'OUEST DE 65E. AU-DELA, UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET UNE REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LES
BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT AMENER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL A REDRESSER VERS
L'OUEST.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12/18H, BOUCHRA A ENCORE UNE OPPORTUNITE DE
S'INTENSIFIER SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE COTE SUD. TOUTEFOIS LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO
LAISSE PLANER UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE MAX QUI SERA FINALEMENT
ATTEINTE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST BASEE SUR LE
CONSENSUS ICNW QUI NE PROPOSENT PAS D'INTENSIFICATION MARQUEE SUR LA
FENETRE FAVORABLE.

EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI OU LA NUIT SUIVANTE, UNE HAUSSE IMPORTANTE
DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD PUIS DE NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ET
DEVRAIT PROVOQUER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181259

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 83.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL
SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/19 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/19 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/20 00 UTC: 16.0 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 77.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/21 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 74.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/22 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/23 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BOUCHRA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH FURTHER WRAPPING OF THE CURVED BAND. VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED RECENTLY VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT AN INNER
CORE MAY DEVELOP. AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 40 TO
50 KT 10-MIN WINDS (CI FROM 3.0 TO 3.5) BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
ELEMENTS, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS IMPRESSIVE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART LATER AS A RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE SYSTEM HAS CURVED SOUTH-WESTWARDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A CONTINUED
SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24H TOWARDS A
MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE STR DUE TO A DEEP UPPER TO MID LEVELS
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF 65AOE. AFTER THAT TIME, A WEAKER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE WESTWARDS WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL STEERING FLOW.

DURING THE NEXT 12/18H, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
POLEWARDS. HOWEVER, THE ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INDUCE SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE ICNW INTENSITY CONSENSUS, WHICH DOES NOT SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OVER THE FAVORABLE PERIOD.

LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE (FROM THE NORTH AND THEN FROM THE NORTH-WEST) AND IS
EXPECTED TO DEFINITIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 181227
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 83.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 TO 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 00 UTC:
14.6 S / 82.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 80.5 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 180900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.2S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.2S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.0S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.3S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.8S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 767 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THEN TIGHTLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
180324Z METOP-A AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE LOW END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55
KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (5-15 KNOTS), AND
FAVORABLE SSTS (27 CELSIUS) WHICH ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STEADY
DEVELOPMENT. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR EXTENSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. WESTERLY VWS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 36 AND WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AS TC 04S TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO STEADILY DEVELOP UNTIL TAU 24 AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
TAU 36 BEFORE BEGINNING TO STEADILY WEAKEN. IN ADDITION, SSTS WILL
DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS BY TAU 72, CONTRIBUTING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
96. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE
REGENERATION OF TC 04S, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 172230).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180715

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 84.5 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 330 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/11/2018 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 19/11/2018 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 19/11/2018 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/11/2018 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/11/2018 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 21/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
120H: 23/11/2018 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 48H, EX-BOUCHRA S'EST GRADUELLEMENT MIEUX
ORGANISE ET A TIRE PROFIT DE LA BAISSE DE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL. LES
POUSSEES DE CONVECTION PROFONDE AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION LA NUIT
DERNIERE ONT PU AINSI NOTABLEMENT MIEUX S'ORGANISER QUE LES JOURS
PRECEDENTS. LE SYSTEME PRESENTE MAINTENANT L'ALLURE D'UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE S'ENROULANT A 0.7 / 0.8 TOUR. LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES VONT DE 40 KT A 50 KT EN VENTS 10-MIN
(CI DE 3.0 A 3.5). L'INTENSITE EST FIXEE A 40 KT DE MANIERE PEUT ETRE
UN PEU CONSERVATRICE. L'IMAGE VISIBLE HAUTE RESOLUTION MONTRE QUE DE
L'AIR SEC SEMBLE NEANMOINS S'INSERER AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION VIA
LES SECTEURS SUD ET OUEST.

LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SUR LA FACADE NORD-OUEST
DES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. UNE TRAJECTOIRE PLUS SUD-OUEST
DANS UN FLUX DIRECTEUR PROCHE DU NIVEAU 500 HPA, EST ENVISAGEE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 24/36H EN DIRECTION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE GENEREE PAR UN PROFOND TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE
TROPO SITUEE ACTUELLEMENT A L'OUEST DE 65E. AU-DELA, UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ET UNE REPRISE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR PAR LES
BASSES COUCHES DEVRAIT AMENER LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL A REDRESSER VERS
L'OUEST.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H, BOUCHRA A ENCORE UNE OPPORTUNITE
D'INTENSIFICATION SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE
DIVERGENCE COTE SUD. TOUTEFOIS LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPO
(SEMBLANT DEJA S'INSERER AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION), LAISSE PLANER
UNE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE MAX QUI SERA FINALEMENT ATTEINTE. LA
PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST AU-DESSUS DU CONSENSUS DES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES. EN FIN DE JOURNEE DE LUNDI OU LA NUIT
SUIVANTE, UNE HAUSSE IMPORTANTE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD A
NORD-OUEST EST ATTENDUE ET DEVRAIT PROVOQUER UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT
DEFINITIF DU SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180715

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 84.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 330 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/18 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/19 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/19 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/20 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/20 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2018/11/21 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/22 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2018/11/23 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS, EX-BOUCHRA HAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED WITH THE
SLOW DECREASE OF THE VWS. LAST NIGHT, THE FLARE UP OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. THE SYSTEM SHOW NOW A CURVED BAND PATTERN THAT WRAPS
0.7/0.8 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL. AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 40
TO 50 KT 10-MIN WINDS (CI FROM 3.0 TO 3.5). THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KT AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. HR VIS IMAGERY DEPICT SOME
DRY AIR THAT SEEMS TO WRAP WITHIN THE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SECTORS.

THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MORE SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK IS ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT 24/36H TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE STR DUE TO A
DEEP UPPER TO MID LEVELS TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF 65AOE.
AFTER TAU 36H, A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRACK MORE
WESTWARDS WITHIN A LOWER STEERING LEVEL.

UP TO TOMORROW, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN A
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS.
HOWEVER, THE ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVELS DRY AIR INDUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ABOVE THE ICNW
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE (FROM THE NORTH AND THEN FROM THE
NORTH-WEST) AND IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN DEFINITIVELY THE
SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 180634
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 84.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 TO 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/18 AT 18 UTC:
13.3 S / 82.9 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/19 AT 06 UTC:
14.4 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 130900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 7.2S 90.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 90.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.3S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW DISORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 130327Z
ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK
FIX FROM PGTW OF T1.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING
CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 7.2S 90.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 90.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.3S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW DISORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 130327Z
ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK
FIX FROM PGTW OF T1.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING
CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 130300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 6.9S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 7.1S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.3S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 6.9S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 7.1S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.3S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 7.7S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 8.4S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.5S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.1S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.8S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1036 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON BROAD TURNING OF WARMEST CLOUDS
IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS BARELY AT WARNING CRITERIA AT
35 KNOTS, WHICH MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS, GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW ARE T2.0. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28 TO 29 DEGREES C), TC 04S CONTINUES TO
FIGHT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEYOND TAU 48 AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH FILLS AND THE STR BUILDS
EASTWARD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NO
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRONG, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TC 04S WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED,
DESPITE CONTINUED GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE FUTURE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 130007
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 13/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3 (EX-BOUCHRA) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7 S / 89.4 E
(SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 12 UTC:
6.8 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER
24H, VALID 2018/11/14 AT 00 UTC:
7.3 S / 90.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EXCEPT REINTENSIFICATION, THIS IS LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA
REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM. FOR FUTHER INFORMATION REFER TO
METEAREA VIII SHIPPING BULLETIN (FQIO26).=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 122100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 6.6S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.9S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 6.6S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.9S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.5S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.1S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.3S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.7S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 6.7S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1001 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED AROUND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.5 TO 3.5 AND CORROBORATED BY A 121548Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING
A REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 04S
CONTINUES TO FIGHT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS),
WHICH IS PROVIDING DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT RESTRICTING THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28
TO 29 DEGREES C). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEYOND
TAU 48 AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FILLS
AND BUILDS EASTWARD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NO
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
BUT GIVEN THE UPCOMING CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z,AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121808
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BOUCHRA) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.3 S / 89.4 E
(SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 06 UTC:
6.7 S / 89.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 18 UTC:
7.0 S / 90.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 121500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 6.2S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.9S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 6.2S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.9S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.6S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.3S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.1S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.1S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 6.3S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1003 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121147Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
121145Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KNOTS) AND HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
FMEE AND A CI OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT TC 04S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
TO 35 KNOTS). TC 04S HAS A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04S IS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36,
TC 04S WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, AN STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE TC
04S TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC 04S WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40 AND 45
KNOTS THROUGH TAU 120. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NVGM AND HWRF HAVE A
SPREAD OF GREATER THAN 1300 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING AFUM. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 121210
SECURITE
NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

NEAR GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 (EX-BOUCHRA) 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.2 S / 89.4 E
(SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 00 UTC:
6.5 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 12 UTC:
6.6 S / 90.0 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 5.9S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 6.3S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.7S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 5.9S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 6.3S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.7S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.2S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.0S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.3S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.3S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.6S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 6.0S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1004 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 120311Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWING
A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
120348Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 04S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 04S HAS A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL BUT HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
04S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36,
TC 04S WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, AN STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE TC
04S TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 04S WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS THROUGH
TAU 120. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NVGM AND HWRF HAVE A SPREAD OF 1200NM
BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, FAVORING AFUM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120622

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 12/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.8 S / 89.3 E
(CINQ DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 60 SO: NO: 220
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SO: NO: 70



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 6.2 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 6.6 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 13/11/2018 18 UTC: 7.0 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/11/2018 06 UTC: 7.6 S / 91.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 14/11/2018 18 UTC: 8.3 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 15/11/2018 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 91.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
120H: 17/11/2018 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA FORTE POUSSEE DE CONVECTION S'EST
MAINTENUE AU-DESSUS DU CENTRE MALGRE LA PRESENCE DU CISAILLEMENT
MODERE DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST. CETTE CONTRAINTE EST EVIDENTE SUR LES
ANIMATIONS SATELLITES, AVEC LA MOITIE EST DE LA CIRCULATION EXPOSEE.
LA PASSE ASCAT METOP-B DE 0310Z CE MATIN MONTRAIT TOUJOURS DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX DE 35/40KTS DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. LES DERNIERS IMAGES
SATELLITES SUGGERENT UN ESSOUFLEMENT DE LA CONVECTION, COHERENT AVEC
LE CYCLE DIURNE.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER ENCORE BLOQUE AU SEIN DU
THALWEG PROCHE EQUATORIAL (TPE) ENTRE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS
CONTRADICTOIRES. DES ZONES DE VORTICITE SECONDAIRES SONT EGALEMENT
PRESENTE SUR L'AXE DU TPE, AVEC DES LOCALISATIONS ET DES STRUCTURES
DIFFERENTES SUIVANT LES RESEAUX ET LES MODELES CONSIDERES. CES ZONES
INFLUENT SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE DE BOUCHRA ET RENDENT CELLE-CI
INCERTAINES A COURTE ECHEANCE. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR, BOUCHRA
DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS REGULIER VERS LE SUD-EST PILOTE
PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EQUATORIAL. JEUDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE
VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN BUTANT SUR LA
FACE NORD-OUEST D'UNE ZONE DE HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DES MODELES
DISPONIBLES. LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE, COMME MONTRE PAR LES RUNS
DE LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CEP. LA DATE DU PASSAGE DANS LA ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE INDONESIENNE (A L'EST DE 90E) RESTE DIFFICILE A
DETERMINER.

SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE, LES CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE RESTENT
DEFAVORABLES AU DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST PERSISTE MAIS AVEC QUELQUES VARIATIONS
D'INTENSITE. LA PETITE TAILLE DE LA CIRCULATION POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS
PERMETTRE DES PHASES TEMPORAIRES D'INTENSIFICATION GRACE NOTAMMENT A
UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. LA
PRESENCE DES ZONES DE VORTICITE SECONDAIRES PRECITEES POURRAIT
EGALEMENT CONDUIRE A UNE DIMINUTION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE. LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES PRINCIPAUX
DETERMINISTES QUI SUGGERENT UNE INTENSITE STATIONNAIRE AUJOURD'HUI
PUIS UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A PARTIR DE DEMAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120622

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.8 S / 89.3 E
(FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 60 SW: NW: 220
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SW: NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 6.2 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 6.6 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 7.0 S / 90.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/14 06 UTC: 7.6 S / 91.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/14 18 UTC: 8.3 S / 92.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/15 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 92.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/16 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 91.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/11/17 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 89.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6H, THE STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST MAINTAINED OVER THE
CENTER DESPITE THE MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS
CONSTRAINT IS OBVIOUS ON THE SAT IMAGES, WITH THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE CIRCULATION EXPOSED. THIS MORNING, THE 0310Z METOP-B ASCAT
SWATH STILL SHOWED MAX WINDS AROUND 35/40KTS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SAT IMAGES SUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION, CONSISTENT WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED WITHIN THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) BETWEEN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING
FLOWS. SOME SECONDARY VORTICITY AREAS ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE NET
AXIS, WITH DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND STRUCTURES DEPENDING ON THE RUNS
AND THE MODELS CONSIDERED. THESE AREAS ARE INFLUENCING BOUCHRA'S
TRAJECTORY AND MAKE IT UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM. FROM TUESDAY,
BOUCHRA SHOULD START TO MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS MORE STEADILY, DRIVEN BY
THE EQUATORIAL NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW. FROM THURSDAY, BOUCHRA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AT LONG RANGE, AS
IT BUMPS INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES. DISPERSION IS HIGH, AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION. THE TIMING OF THE CROSSING INTO THE INDONESIAN AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF 90E) REMAINS HARD TO DETERMINE.

OVER ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD, UPPER CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
PERSISTS ALTHOUGH WITH SOME STRENGTH VARIATIONS. HOWEVER, THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALLOW SOME TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION PHASES
THANKS TO THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY AREAS OF VORTICITY COULD
ALSO INDUCE A DECREASE OF THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST A STATIONARY INTENSITY TODAY AND A SLOW
WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120612
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.8 S / 89.3 E
(FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 18 UTC:
6.2 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 06 UTC:
6.6 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 5.2S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 5.2S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.5S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.1S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 8.6S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.0S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 5.3S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1003 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF, AND
OBSCURING, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF THE
EIR IMAGERY AND A 112158Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE TO IDENTIFY
THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE LLCC UNDER THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AT 28-29 CELSIUS, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 04S IS MEANDERING
SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY
TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 120. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST, HIGH VWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGES,
LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 120024

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 12/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.5 S / 89.2 E
(CINQ DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 6.1 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 13/11/2018 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 13/11/2018 12 UTC: 6.5 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 14/11/2018 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
60H: 14/11/2018 12 UTC: 7.6 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 15/11/2018 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 16/11/2018 00 UTC: 9.8 S / 92.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 17/11/2018 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 90.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A VIOLEMMENT
REPRIS PRES DU CENTRE DE BOUCHRA AVEC DES SOMMETS FROIDS (-90C). LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRENT QUE LE CENTRE EST DE PLUS EN PLUS INCLUS
SOUS LE CDO (SSMIS 2158Z). DE PLUS, LES DONNEES COMPLEMENTAIRES DE LA
PASSE ASCAT DE 1506Z ONT MONTRE LA PRESENCE DE VENTS SUPERIEURS A
40KT. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A DONC ETE RECALE.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER ENCORE BLOQUE AU SEIN DU
THALWEG PROCHE EQUATORIAL ENTRE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES.
LA TRAJECTOIRE EST D'AUTANT PLUS INCERTAINE QUE LA CIRCULATION DE
BOUCHRA POURRAIT FUSIONNER AVEC UNE ZONE DE VORTICITE APPROCHANT PAR
L'OUEST. UN NOUVEAU MINIMUM AU SEIN DE CETTE ZONE DE BASSES PRESSIONS
POURRAIT ALORS PRENDRE LE DESSUS SUR LE MINIMUM SUIVI ACTUELLEMENT.
POUR LA SUITE, BOUCHRA DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS REGULIER
VERS LE SUD-EST DIRIGE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EQUATORIAL. A PARTIR
DE JEUDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN BUTANT SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST D'UNE ZONE DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST EN RELATIF ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES NUMERIQUES, MAIS LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE. IL EST DONC
ENCORE DIFFICILE DE DETERMINER LA DATE DU PASSAGE DANS LA ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE INDONESIENNE.

SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE, LES CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE NE DEVRAIENT
PAS ETRE FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT DANS LA DUREE DE BOUCHRA, AVEC
LA PERSISTANCE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST.
MALGRE TOUT, LA PETITE TAILLE DE LA CIRCULATION ET LA BONNE
DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE POURRAIT PERMETTRE DES PHASES TEMPORAIRES
D'INTENSIFICATION. LA FUSION AVEC LA DEUXIEME ZONE DE VORTICITE
POURRAIT EGALEMENT CONDUIRE A UNE DIMINUTION DE LA CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES SORTIES DES
PRINCIPAUX DETERMINISTES QUI SUGGERENT UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT A
PARTIR DE DEMAIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 120024

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/12 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5 S / 89.2 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 6.1 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/13 00 UTC: 6.5 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/13 12 UTC: 6.5 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/14 00 UTC: 6.8 S / 90.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/11/14 12 UTC: 7.6 S / 91.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/15 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 92.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/16 00 UTC: 9.8 S / 92.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2018/11/17 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 90.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
CLOSE TO BOUCHRA CENTER WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS (-90C). MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS MORE AND MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO
(SSMIS 2158Z). FUTHERMORE, COMPLEMENTARY DATA FROM 1506Z ASCAT SWATH
SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 40KT. BOUCHRA INTENSITY WAS THUS
READJUSTED.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BLOCKED AGAIN WITHIN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THE TRACK IS
RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT BOUCHRA FLOW MAY MERGE WITH AN OTHER
VORTITY AREA COMING FROM WEST. A NEW MINIMUM WITHIN THIS VAST LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE AREA, MAY THEN REPLACE THE CURRENT MONITORED CENTER.
NEXT, BOUCHRA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE REGULARLY SOUTH-EASTERWARD,
STEERED BY THE NORTH-WESTERLY EQUATORIAL FLOW. FROM THURSDAY, BOUCHRA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AT LONG RANGE,
AS IT BUMPS INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS IN A RELATIVE AGREEMENT WHIT MAIN
GUIDANCE, BUT THE DISPERSION IS QUITE IMPORTANT. IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TRANSITION TIMING INTO THE INDONESIAN AREA.

FOR ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD, UPPER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LONG-TERM DEEPENING WITH A THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE AND THE GOOD
DIVERGENCE, MAY TRIGGER TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE MERGE
WITH THE SECOND BROAD CIRCULATION MAY ALSO INDUCE A DIMINUTION OF THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MAIN GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST A SLOW
WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 120015
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 12/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 12/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 1002 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5 S / 89.2 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 12 UTC:
6.1 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/13 AT 00 UTC:
6.5 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 112100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 5.3S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 6.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 5.3S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 6.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.3S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 6.7S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.7S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.7S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 5.4S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH REVEALS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-
45 KNOTS). HIGH (25-35 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS COUNTERACTING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TRACK EASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN THE LATER TAUS, COMPETING
INFLUENCE FROM A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO TURN TC 04S POLEWARD. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL, INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD SOONER THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED DISSIPATION AT TAU
120. SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE (880 NM) BY
TAU 120 DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. FOR THAT REASON,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z,
120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 111832

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 11/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.1 S / 89.1 E
(CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 1003 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SO: 40 NO: 40



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 5.8 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 6.3 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 13/11/2018 18 UTC: 6.4 S / 89.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 14/11/2018 06 UTC: 7.0 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
72H: 14/11/2018 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/11/2018 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 92.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
120H: 16/11/2018 18 UTC: 10.3 S / 91.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.0- CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES SIX HEURES, BOUCHRA A CONTINUE DE SUBIR UN
FORT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST, ANALYSE PAR LE CIMSS A 15Z
AUTOUR DE 25/30KT. DANS CET ENVIRONNEMENT HOSTILE, L'ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE TRES ELOIGNEE DU CENTRE QUI EST TOTALEMENT
EXPOSE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1504Z A PERMIS DE CONFIRMER LA BAISSE
D'INTENSITE, AVEC SEULEMENT 35KT MESURE PROCHE DU CENTRE. MALGFRE
TOUT, LA CIRCULATION DE SURFACE RESTE ENCORE TRES BIEN DEFINIE ET LA
CONVECTION PROFONDE VIENT DE REDEMARRER A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE.

DEMAIN, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RESTER ENCORE BLOQUE AU SEIN DU THALWEG
PROCHE EQUATORIAL ENTRE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. LA
TRAJECTOIRE EST D'AUTANT PLUS INCERTAINE QUE LA CIRCULATION D'ALCIDE
POURRAIT FUSIONNER AVEC UNE ZONE DE VORTICITE APPROCHANT PAR L'OUEST.
UN NOUVEAU MINIMUM AU SEIN DE CETTE ZONE DE BASSES PRESSIONS POURRAIT
ALORS PRENDRE LE DESSUS SUR LE MINIMUM SUIVI ACTUELLEMENT.
POUR LA SUITE, BOUCHRA DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS REGULIER
VERS LE SUD-EST DIRIGE PAR LE FLUX DE NORD-OUEST EQUATORIAL. A PARTIR
DE JEUDI, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INCURVE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST EN
FIN D'ECHEANCE, EN BUTANT SUR LA FACE NORD-OUEST D'UNE ZONE DE HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS.
LA PRESENTE PREVISION EST EN RELATIF ACCORD AVEC LES PRINCIPAUX
MODELES NUMERIQUES, MAIS LA DISPERSION EST IMPORTANTE. IL EST DONC
ENCORE DIFFICILE DE DETERMINER LA DATE DU PASSAGE DANS LA ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE INDONESIENNE.

SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PERIODE, LES CONDITIONS EN ALTITUDE NE DEVRAIENT
PAS ETRE FAVORABLE A UN DEVELOPPEMENT DANS LA DUREE DE BOUCHRA, AVEC
LA PERSISTANCE DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR EST-NORD-EST.
MALGRE TOUT, LA PETITE TAILLE DE LA CIRCULATION ET LA BONNE
DIVERGENCE EN ALTITUDE POURRAIT PERMETTRE DES PHASES TEMPORAIRES
D'INTENSIFICATION. LA FUSION AVEC LA DEUXIEME ZONE DE VORTICITE
POURRAIT EGALEMENT CONDUIRE A UNE DIMINUTION DE LA CONVERGENCE.
LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE SE BASE PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LES SORTIES DES
PRINCIPAUX DETERMINISTES QUI SUGGERENT UN LENT AFFAIBLISSEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 111832

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/11 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 89.1 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 5.8 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 6.3 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 6.4 S / 89.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/14 06 UTC: 7.0 S / 90.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/11/14 18 UTC: 7.5 S / 91.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/15 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 92.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW
120H: 2018/11/16 18 UTC: 10.3 S / 91.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=2.5+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BOUCHRA UNDERWENT A STRONG
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ANALYSED BY CIMMS AT 15Z
AROUND 25/30KT. WITH THIS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
REMAINED FAR FROM THE CENTER WHICH IS TOTALLY EXPOSED. 1504Z ASCAT
SWATH CONFIRMED THE DECAY OF BOUCHRA WITH ONLY 35KT CLOSE TO THE
CENTER. NEVERTHELESS, SURFACE INNER CIRCULATION IS STILL WELL DEFINED
AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS JUST RESUMED NEAR THE CENTER.

TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE BLOCKED AGAIN WITHIN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THE
TRACK IS RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THAT ALCIDE FLOW MAY MERGE WITH
AN OTHER VORTITY AREA COMING FROM WEST. A NEW MINIMUM WITHIN THIS
VAST LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AREA, MAY THEN REPLACE THE CURRENT MONITORED
CENTER.
NEXT, BOUCHRA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE REGULARLY SOUTH-EASTERWARD,
STEERED BY THE NORTH-WESTERLY EQUATORIAL FLOW. FROM THURSDAY, BOUCHRA
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AT LONG RANGE,
AS IT BUMPS INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA.
THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS IN A RELATIVE AGREEMENT WHIT MAIN
GUIDANCE, BUT THE DISPERSION IS QUITE IMPORTANT. IT IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE TRANSITION TIMING INTO THE INDONESIAN AREA.

FOR ALL THE FORECAST PERIOD, UPPER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
LONG-TERM DEEPENING WITH A THE PERSISTENCE OF AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE AND THE GOOD
DIVERGENCE, MAY TRIGGER TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE MERGE
WITH THE SECOND BROAD CIRCULATION MAY ALSO INDUCE A DIMINUITION OF
THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
INTENSITYY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MAIN GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGET A SLOW
WEAKENING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111819
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 89.1 E
(FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 06 UTC:
5.8 S / 89.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 18 UTC:
6.1 S / 89.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 111500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 5.3S 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 078 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.4S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 5.3S 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 078 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.4S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 5.9S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.3S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 7.4S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 8.7S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 5.3S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO LOOP POLEWARD AS IT MAINTAINED
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW BRIGHTNESS CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 111200Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL
AT 27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 72, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWESTWARD. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VWS WILL
ENHANCE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO 50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
ERODE THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
OUT UP TO OVER 620 NM WITH HWRF ON THE EXTREME LEFT AND EGRR ON THE
RIGHT. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 111216
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 998 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.3 S / 88.5 E
(FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 00 UTC:
5.5 S / 89.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 12 UTC:
5.9 S / 89.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.3S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.3S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 5.6S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.0S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.2S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 8.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.3S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 88.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BACK-TRACK EQUATORWARD AS
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW BRIGHTNESS
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 110331Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT
IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE UP TO TAU 48 AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY AS A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER STEERING AND DRIVE
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING
VWS WILL ENHANCE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. IN VIEW OF
THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110630

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 11/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.7 S / 88.7 E
(CINQ DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 5.9 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 6.3 S / 90.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/11/2018 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 14/11/2018 06 UTC: 7.3 S / 92.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/11/2018 06 UTC: 8.8 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
120H: 16/11/2018 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0-;CI=3.0+

L'INFLUENCE DE LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST EST DE
PLUS EN PLUS VISIBLE SUR LES ANIMATIONS SATELLITES. LA CONVECTION EST
DESORMAIS CONCENTREE DANS UN LARGE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST.
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK DU CMRS EST EN ACCORD AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES 85GHZ SSMIS DE 0055Z
EST MOINS IMPRESSIONNANTE QUE CELLE DE 2319Z, AVEC UNE STRUCTURE
D'OEIL BIEN MOINS DEFINIE. L'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA EST DONC RABAISSEE
AU STADE MAXIMAL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE. LES PASSES ASCAT DE CE MATIN
NE COUVRENT PAS LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE BOUCHRA MAIS EN
L'ENCADRANT, ELLES CONFIRMENT QUE CELLE-CI EST PEU ETENDUE.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME RESTE AU SEIN DU THALWEG PROCHE-EQUATORIAL,
ENTRE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LE FLUX D'EST GENERE
PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET LE FLUX D'OUEST EPAIS PRESENT AU
NIVEAU DE L'EQUATEUR, PROBABLEMENT GENERE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDE
EQUATORIALE DE KELVIN. LUNDI, CE DERNIER DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET
RENVOYER BOUCHRA VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD-EST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE EN MOYENNE TROPO. LA PREVISION D'ENSEMBLE DU CENTRE
EUROPEEN CONFIRME CE SCENARIO, AVEC UNE DISPERSION IMPORTANTE.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA EST SOUMISE A UNE INCERTITUDE
PLUS ELEVEE QUE LA NORMALE, ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME DE PETITE TAILLE
EVOLUE EN LIMITE OUEST D'UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT
MODERE PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME PROFITE POUR
L'INSTANT D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE QUI LUI PERMET DE
SUBSISTER. LUNDI, ALORS QUE BOUCHRA ENTAME SON DEPLACEMENT VERS
L'EST, LE CISAILLEMENT RELATIF VA SIGNIFICATIVEMENT AUGMENTER CE QUI
DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT LEGEREMENT DEFAVORABLES, AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE DE SECTEUR NORD-EST FAIBLE A MODERE ET UNE
DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE INTERMITTENTE. CEPENDANT, LA PETITE TAILLE DE
BOUCHRA LE REND PLUS SENSIBLE AUX AMELIORATIONS DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT,
MEME TEMPORAIRES. L'INTENSITE DE BOUCHRA POURRAIT AINSI CONNAITRE
QUELQUES FLUCTUATIONS, AUTOUR D'UNE TENDANCE MOYENNE A UN LENT
AFFAIBLISSEMENT, COMME PROPOSE PAR LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110630

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 88.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 5.9 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 6.3 S / 90.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 91.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/14 06 UTC: 7.3 S / 92.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/15 06 UTC: 8.8 S / 94.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/11/16 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 94.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0-;CI=3.0+

THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT IS MORE AND MORE
VISIBLE ON THE SAT ANIMATIONS. CONVECTION IS NOW CONCENTRATED IN A
WIDE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CMRS DVORAK ESTIMATE IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DATA. THE 0055Z
85GHZ SSMIS MW IMAGE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE 2319Z ONE, WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE PATTERN. BOUCHRA'S CURRENT INTENSITY IS
THUS DECREASED TO THE MAXIMUM TROPICAL STORM STAGE. THIS MORNING
ASCAT SWATH DO NOT COVER THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BUT THIS CONFIRM
THAT THE CIRCULATION IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM WILL STAY WITHIN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH AXIS,
BETWEEN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (EASTERLY FLOW) AND THE DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES, PROBABLY
STRENGTHENED BY AN EQUATORIAL KELVIN WAVE. FROM TOMORROW, THE LATTER
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT AND STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THEN
SOUTH-EASTWARDS AS BOUCHRA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST
CONFIRMS THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH WITH A HIGH DISPERSION.

BOUCHRA'S INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECTED TO A HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
THAN USUAL, AS THE SMALL-SIZED SYSTEM TRACKS ON THE WESTERN BORDER OF
A MODERATE VWS AREA DRIVEN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL UPPER RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE THAT
ALLOWS A STATIONARY INTENSITY. MONDAY, AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK
EASTWARDS, THE RELATIVE WINDSHEAR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE AND A
WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD BEGIN. FROM TUESDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY UNCONDUCIVE, WITH A WEAK TO MODERATE VWS
AND AN INTERMITTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BOUCHRA'S SMALL SIZE MAKES IT
MORE SENSIBLE TO THE IMPROVEMENTS OF ITS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
EVEN IF THEY REMAIN TEMPORARY. BOUCHRA'S INTENSITY COULD THUS
FLUCTUATE BUT THE MAIN TREND SHOULD REMAIN A SLOW WEAKENING, AS
SUGGESTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110627
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.7 S / 88.7 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 18 UTC:
5.4 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 06 UTC:
5.6 S / 89.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 5.4S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.3S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 5.4S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.3S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.1S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.4S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.1S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.3S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 988 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 102319Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS HEAVY PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
TC 04S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO REVERSE COURSE AND TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A STR
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
ALLOWS FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RANGE
OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FROM A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK (NAVGEM) TO
AN EASTWARD TRACK (HWRF). MOST OF THE MEMBERS DEPICT A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
BECAUSE OF THE WIDE SPREAD (OVER 500NM WHEN IGNORING NAVGEM AND
HWRF) IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 110143

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/3/20182019
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 11/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.6 S / 89.0 E
(CINQ DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 11/11/2018 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 12/11/2018 00 UTC: 5.2 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 12/11/2018 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 13/11/2018 00 UTC: 6.1 S / 90.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/11/2018 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 91.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 14/11/2018 00 UTC: 7.4 S / 92.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 15/11/2018 00 UTC: 8.7 S / 94.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 16/11/2018 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 94.4 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE INTERNE
DE BOUCHRA S'EST FORTEMENT AMELIOREE DURANT LA NUIT AVEC LA
CONSTITUTION D'UN OEIL D'UN DIAMETRE MOYEN DE 20 MN SUR LES DERNIERES
SSMIS PROCHES DE 00Z. LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE SUR L'IMAGERIE
CLASSIQUE EST EN AMELIORATION MAIS PAS DE FACON AUSSI SPECTACULAIRE
QUE SUR LES MICRO-ONDES. L'ENSEMBLE DES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK VONT DE 30
KT (CI 2.5) A 50 KT (CI 3.5). L'ADT EST A 43 KT. COMPTE TENU DES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES, L'INTENSITE FINALE RETENUE EST FIXEE A
50 KT.

CETTE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION PROCHE DU SEUIL D'INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE (RI) (30 KT/24HR) N'A PAS ETE APPREHENDEE PAR LES GUIDANCES
SPECIFIQUES RI.

L'IMAGERIE VAPEUR D'EAU MONTRE QUE L'OUTFLOW DE LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE REUSSIT A CONTRECARRER LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE MODEREE
D'EST-NORD-EST.
COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE, LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE A ETE
SIGNIFICATIVEMENT REVUE EN PLACANT LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION
PLUS A COURTE QU'A MOYENNE ECHEANCE. EN EFFET LORSQUE D'ICI LUNDI LE
SYSTEME REPRENDRA UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST, LE CISAILLEMENT RELATIF
SERA EN HAUSSE ET DEVRAIT AMORCER UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT.

AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME EVOLUE ENTRE DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES AVEC LE FLUX D'EST GENERE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET LES LE FLUX D'OUEST EPAIS PRESENT AU NIVEAU DE
L'EQUATEUR, GENERE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDE EQUATORIALE DE KELVIN.
C'EST A TERME CE DERNIER QUI DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET RENVOYER
BOUCHRA VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD-EST ALORS QUE BOUCHRA DEVRAIT EVOLUER
SUR LA FACE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE EN MOYENNE
TROPO.

COMPTE TENU DE L'EVOLUTION IMPREVUE DE LA SITUATION, IL EXISTE UNE
INCERTITUDE PLUS FORTE QUE LA NORMALE SUR L'ENSEMBLE DE LA PREVISION.
=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 110143

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20182019
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 89.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/11 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/12 00 UTC: 5.2 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/12 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/13 00 UTC: 6.1 S / 90.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/13 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 91.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/14 00 UTC: 7.4 S / 92.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/15 00 UTC: 8.7 S / 94.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/16 00 UTC: 10.6 S / 94.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0+

MW IMAGERY OF LAST NIGHT HAS SHOWN SOME GREAT IMPROVEMENT OF THE
INTERNAL STRUCTURE WITH THE BUILDING OF A SMALL INNERCORE AND A 85
GHZ 20 NM WIDE MW EYE SEEN ON THE SSMIS NEAR 00Z. THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS IMPROVED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON MW IMAGERY.
AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 00Z RANGE FROM 30 KT (CI 2.5) TO 50 KT
(CI 3.5). ADT IS AT 43 KT. GIVEN THE MW PATTERN, THE FINAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 50 KT.

THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND CLOSE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THRESHOLD (30 KT/24HR) WAS NOT ANTICIPATED BY THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

THE WV IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE OUTFLOW HAS LESSEN THE MODERATE
ENVIRONMENTAL EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN REVISED WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL AT SHORT RANGE THAN LONG RANGE
BASED AN INCREASING RELATIVE SHEAR LATER ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARDS. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BETWEEN TWO
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(EASTERLY FLOW) AND THE DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES GENERATED BY AN
EQUATORIAL KELVIN WAVE. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN ONE AFTER
24 TO 36H AND MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS AS
BOUCHRA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID
LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

OVERALL,THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 110039
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/11/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 11/11/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 89.0 E
(FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 12 UTC:
5.4 S / 88.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/12 AT 00 UTC:
5.2 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.4S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.4S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.4S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 5.7S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.1S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.4S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.1S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND MOST OF THE RAIN BANDS TO THE
WEST OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A
101525Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 04S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING INHIBITED BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO AN
EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS A STR BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RANGE OF DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS FROM A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK (NAVGEM) TO TRACKS RANGING
FROM EASTWARD (HWRF) TO NORTHWESTWARD (BULK OF THE REMAINING
MEMBERS). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 101947

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/3/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 10/11/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 5.4 S / 89.5 E
(CINQ DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 11/11/2018 06 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 11/11/2018 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 12/11/2018 06 UTC: 5.1 S / 88.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 12/11/2018 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 89.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 13/11/2018 06 UTC: 5.5 S / 91.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 13/11/2018 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 92.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 14/11/2018 18 UTC: 7.7 S / 94.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
120H: 15/11/2018 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 95.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

CE SYSTEME S'EST SIGNIFICATIVEMENT ORGANISE AU COURS DES DERNIERES
24H, NOTAMMENT DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT DERNIERE OU IL A PRESENTE UNE
ORGANISATION EN AMELIORATION CROISSANTE AVANT UNE LEGERE PERTE
D'ORGANISATION EN FIN DE JOURNEE. CE SOIR LE SYSTEME PRESENTE UNE
CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE. LES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SONT A 30-40
KT (VENTS 10-MIN) (CI ALLANT DE 2.5 A 3.0 EN FONCTION DES AGENCES),
LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES A 35-40 KT ET UNE PASS SMAP AUX ENVIRON DE
12Z ESTIME DES VENTS MAX A 40 KT (POSSIBLE CONTAMINATION DES PLUIES).
EN SE BASANT SUR TOUS CES ELEMENTS, L'INTENSITE EST ESTIMEE AU STADE
MINIMALE DE TEMPETE TROPICALE (PROBABLEMENT ATTEINT DEPUIS 12Z) ET LE
SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE A 18Z.

LE SYSTEME EVOLUE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ CISAILLE DE SECTEUR
EST-NORD-EST ET CE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT SE MAINTENIR A UN NIVEAU
MODERE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS ET C'EST DONC A UNE
INTENSIFICATION LENTE QUI EST SUGEREE SUR CETTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE
AVEC UNE POSSIBLE TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN FIN D'ECHEANCE
ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT EVOLUER DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUS SEC
EN MOYENNE TROPO.

APRES AVOIR DERIVER VERS L'EST DEPUIS HIER POUR EVOLUER UNE BONNE
PARTIE DE LA JOURNEE EN ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE DE JAKARTA, LE SYSTEME
EST REVENU SUR CES PAS POUR RENTRER SUR NOTRE ZONE EN FIN DE JOURNEE.
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS, LE SYSTEME VA EVOLUER ENTRE DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE LE FLUX D'EST GENERE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET LES LE FLUX D'OUEST EPAIS PRESENT AU NIVEAU DE
L'EQUATEUR ET GENERE PAR LE PASSAGE D'UNE ONDE EQUATORIALE DE KELVIN.
C'EST A TERME CE DERNIER QUI DEVRAIT PRENDRE LA MAIN ET RENVOYER
BOUCHRA VERS L'EST PUIS LE SUD-EST.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 101947

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA)

2.A POSITION 2018/11/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.4 S / 89.5 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/11/11 06 UTC: 5.4 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/11/11 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/11/12 06 UTC: 5.1 S / 88.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/11/12 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 89.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/11/13 06 UTC: 5.5 S / 91.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/11/13 18 UTC: 6.1 S / 92.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/11/14 18 UTC: 7.7 S / 94.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/11/15 18 UTC: 10.5 S / 95.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN ORGANISATION OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS AND SPECIALLY SINCE THE END OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT,WITH A
STAEDY IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF
THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE EVENING. TONIGHT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A
CURVED BAND. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT (10 MIN WINDS)
(CI FROM 2.5 TO 3.0). OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 KT AND
A SMAP PASS AROUND 12Z SHOW MAX WINDS AT 40 KT (WITH SOME POSSIBLE
RAIN CONTAMINATION). BASED ON ALL OF THIS, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 35 KT (LIKELY REACHED SINCE 12Z) AND THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED BY THE
MAURITIUS NWS AT 18Z.

THE SYSTEM IS WITHIN A RATHER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH A POTENTIAL WEAKENING TREND AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WITHIN A DRY
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

AFTER AN INITIAL EASTWARDS DRIFT SINCE YESTERDAY THAT MOVED THE
SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF OUR AOR, THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED BACK AND RE-ENTER
IN OUR AOR THIS EVENING. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE BETWEEN TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (EASTERLY FLOW) AND THE DEEP EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES
GENERATED BY AN EQUATORIAL KELVIN WAVE. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE
MAIN ONE AFTER 24 TO 36H AND MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS AND THEN
SOUTH-EASTWARDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 101835
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 10/11/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 10/11/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOUCHRA) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.4 S / 89.5 E
(FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 45
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 06 UTC:
5.4 S / 88.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/11/11 AT 18 UTC:
5.2 S / 88.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED BOUCHRA BY THE MAURITIUS NWS AT 18Z.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 5.6S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 5.5S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 5.6S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 5.5S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.3S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.5S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.5S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.4S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON LOW BRIGHTNESS CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE
100924Z SSMI AND 101024Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT
45 KNOTS AROUND TAUS 48-72, FUELED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND TRAJECTORIES IN
THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 90.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 5.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.6S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 90.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 5.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.6S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.4S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.1S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.3S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100353Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>