Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for RUMBIA-18 in China, Japan from 15 Aug 2018 00:00 UTC to 17 Aug 2018 00:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RUMBIA-18

in China, Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

18/08 01:25 WTPQ23RJTD180000

17/08 22:25 WTPQ23RJTD172100

17/08 20:25 WTPQ33RJTD171800

17/08 19:25 WTPQ23RJTD171800

17/08 19:25 WTJP24RJTD171800

17/08 16:25 WTPQ23RJTD171500

17/08 14:25 WTPQ33RJTD171200

17/08 13:31 WTKO20RKSL171200

17/08 13:31 WTJP24RJTD171200

17/08 13:25 WTPQ23RJTD171200

17/08 10:25 WTPQ23RJTD170900

17/08 08:25 WTPQ33RJTD170600

17/08 07:31 WTKO20RKSL170600

17/08 07:31 WTJP24RJTD170600

17/08 07:25 WTPQ23RJTD170600

17/08 04:25 WTPQ23RJTD170300

17/08 02:31 WTPN54PGTW170300

17/08 02:25 WTPQ33RJTD170000

17/08 01:31 WTJP24RJTD170000

17/08 01:25 WTPQ23RJTD170000

16/08 22:25 WTPQ23RJTD162100

16/08 21:32 WTPN54PGTW162100

16/08 21:32 WTPN34PGTW162100

16/08 20:25 WTPQ33RJTD161800RRA

16/08 20:25 WTPQ33RJTD161800

16/08 19:32 WTJP24RJTD161800

16/08 19:25 WTPQ23RJTD161800

16/08 16:25 WTPQ23RJTD161500

16/08 14:31 WTPN54PGTW161500

16/08 14:31 WTPN34PGTW161500

16/08 14:25 WTPQ33RJTD161200RRA

16/08 14:25 WTPQ33RJTD161200

16/08 13:31 WTKO20RKSL161200

16/08 13:31 WTJP24RJTD161200

16/08 13:25 WTPQ23RJTD161200

16/08 11:31 WTPQ20VHHH161046

16/08 10:25 WTPQ23RJTD160900

16/08 09:32 WTPN54PGTW160900

16/08 09:32 WTPN34PGTW160900

16/08 08:31 WTPQ20VHHH160746

16/08 08:25 WTPQ33RJTD160600

16/08 07:31 WTKO20RKSL160600

16/08 07:31 WTJP24RJTD160600

16/08 07:25 WTPQ23RJTD160600

16/08 05:31 WTPQ20VHHH160446

16/08 04:25 WTPQ23RJTD160300

16/08 02:31 WTPQ20VHHH160146

16/08 02:31 WTPN54PGTW160300

16/08 02:31 WTPN34PGTW160300

16/08 02:25 WTPQ33RJTD160000

16/08 01:31 WTKO20RKSL160000

16/08 01:31 WTJP24RJTD160000

16/08 01:25 WTPQ23RJTD160000

15/08 23:31 WTPQ20VHHH152246

15/08 22:25 WTPQ23RJTD152100

15/08 20:31 WTPQ20VHHH151946

15/08 20:31 WTPN54PGTW152100

15/08 20:31 WTPN34PGTW152100

15/08 20:25 WTPQ33RJTD151800

15/08 19:32 WTJP24RJTD151800

15/08 19:25 WTPQ23RJTD151800

15/08 16:25 WTPQ23RJTD151500

15/08 15:31 WTPN54PGTW151500

15/08 15:31 WTPN34PGTW151500

15/08 14:25 WTPQ33RJTD151200

15/08 13:31 WTKO20RKSL151200

15/08 13:31 WTJP24RJTD151200

15/08 13:25 WTPQ23RJTD151200

15/08 10:25 WTPQ23RJTD150900

15/08 09:32 WTPN54PGTW150900

15/08 09:32 WTPN34PGTW150900

15/08 08:46 WTJP24RJTD150600

15/08 08:25 WTPQ33RJTD150600RRA

15/08 08:25 WTPQ33RJTD150600

15/08 07:25 WTPQ23RJTD150600

15/08 05:25 WTPQ23RJTD150300

15/08 03:31 WTPN54PGTW150300

15/08 03:31 WTPN34PGTW150300

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 32N 115E
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 992HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 32.0N 115.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 32.5N 114.2E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.7N, 116.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 31.7N 116.3E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 32.2N 114.3E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 990 HPA
AT 31.7N 116.3E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 32.2N 114.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 32.2N 114.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 31.6N 116.8E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 32.2N 114.3E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.6N, 117.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT24.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1818 RUMBIA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 31.7N 117.4E
MOVEMENT W 11KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 33.3N 113.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 23KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 990 HPA
AT 31.6N 117.3E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 32.2N 115.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.4N 114.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 31.6N 117.3E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 32.4N 114.3E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 31.5N 118.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 32.3N 114.5E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 31.5N, 118.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 1818 RUMBIA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170600UTC 31.6N 118.7E
MOVEMENT WNW 21KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 180600UTC 33.2N 114.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 985 HPA
AT 31.5N 118.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 32.0N 115.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 32.5N 114.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 31.5N 118.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 32.5N 114.6E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 31.4N 119.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 32.5N 114.9E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180817011436
2018081700 21W RUMBIA 009 03 305 12 SATL 060
T000 313N 1207E 045 R034 185 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 319N 1179E 035
T024 329N 1156E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 31.3N 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.9N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.9N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 31.5N 120.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM WEST OF
SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
2118081518 297N1253E 35
2118081600 299N1247E 35
2118081606 301N1241E 40
2118081612 304N1232E 40
2118081618 306N1218E 50
2118081618 306N1218E 50
2118081700 313N1207E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 31.1N, 121.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 985 HPA
AT 31.1N 121.3E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 31.8N 117.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 32.5N 115.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 31.1N 121.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 32.5N 115.8E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 30.8N 121.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 32.1N 115.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181800UTC 33.2N 113.1E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180816201309
2018081618 21W RUMBIA 008 03 265 12 SATL 060
T000 303N 1218E 050 R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 309N 1188E 045 R034 160 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 315N 1162E 035
T036 321N 1141E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.9N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 31.5N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 32.1N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 121.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
2118081518 297N1253E 35
2118081600 299N1247E 35
2118081606 301N1241E 40
2118081612 304N1232E 40
2118081618 303N1218E 50
2118081618 303N1218E 50
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 30.3N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.9N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 31.5N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 32.1N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 121.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 56 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 161800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 121.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF LAND IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND SOON.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 121.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF LAND IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND SOON.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 985 HPA
AT 30.5N 121.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.4N 118.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 32.0N 115.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 33.2N 113.1E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 30.5N 121.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 32.0N 115.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 181800UTC 33.2N 113.1E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 30.6N 122.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 32.0N 116.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181200UTC 32.8N 113.6E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180816132949
2018081612 21W RUMBIA 007 03 285 07 SATL 030
T000 303N 1232E 040 R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 309N 1206E 040 R034 210 NE QD 100 SE QD 025 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 316N 1177E 030
T036 324N 1150E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 30.3N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.6N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.4N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 122.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
2118081518 297N1253E 35
2118081600 299N1247E 35
2118081606 301N1240E 40
2118081612 303N1232E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 30.3N 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.9N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.6N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 32.4N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 30.5N 122.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND
171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 161200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP AND LAND ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 123.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP AND LAND ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT12. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT36.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1818 RUMBIA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161200UTC 30.6N 123.5E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 171200UTC 31.6N 117.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 990 HPA
AT 30.4N 123.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 31.3N 120.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 31.8N 117.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 32.8N 113.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 30.4N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 31.8N 117.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 181200UTC 32.8N 113.6E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 161046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (30.3 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (31.4 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 30.2N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 31.6N 118.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180600UTC 32.6N 113.9E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180816073542
2018081606 21W RUMBIA 006 03 290 06 SATL 030
T000 301N 1240E 040 R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 085 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 306N 1218E 040 R034 195 NE QD 140 SE QD 065 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 313N 1188E 030
T036 321N 1159E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 30.1N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.3N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.1N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 123.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
2118081518 297N1253E 35
2118081600 299N1247E 35
2118081606 301N1240E 40
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 30.1N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.1N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.6N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.3N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.1N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 123.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 160746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
THREE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (31.3 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (32.1 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 29.9N, 124.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT18. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 1818 RUMBIA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160600UTC 30.0N 124.3E
MOVEMENT WNW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 170600UTC 31.1N 118.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 31KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 994 HPA
AT 29.9N 124.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.1N 122.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 31.1N 119.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 32.6N 113.9E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 29.9N 124.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 31.1N 119.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180600UTC 32.6N 113.9E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 160446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (31.1 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (32.1 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 29.9N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 31.3N 119.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 180000UTC 32.5N 114.4E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 160146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
THREE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (31.0 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (32.0 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (114.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180816013425
2018081600 21W RUMBIA 005 05 290 06 SATL 040
T000 299N 1247E 035 R034 135 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 305N 1228E 040 R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 312N 1202E 030
T036 321N 1171E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 29.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.5N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 31.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 32.1N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 124.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
2118081518 297N1253E 35
2118081600 299N1247E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 005
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 29.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.9N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.5N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 31.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 32.1N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 30.1N 124.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 29.8N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 1818 RUMBIA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160000UTC 29.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 170000UTC 30.8N 119.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
48HR
POSITION 180000UTC 31.8N 114.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 996 HPA
AT 29.8N 124.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 30.2N 123.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 31.1N 120.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 32.5N 114.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 29.8N 124.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 31.1N 120.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 32.5N 114.4E 110NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 152246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 152100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (30.8 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (31.9 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (114.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 29.9N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 30.9N 121.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 171800UTC 31.8N 116.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 181800UTC 33.1N 113.9E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 151946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 151800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (1818) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180815194920
2018081518 21W RUMBIA 004 05 310 09 SATL 040
T000 297N 1251E 035 R034 105 NE QD 190 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 304N 1235E 035 R034 155 NE QD 180 SE QD 025 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 309N 1214E 040 R034 180 NE QD 165 SE QD 015 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 317N 1183E 030
T048 323N 1157E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 004
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 29.7N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 30.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.7N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.3N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
2118081518 297N1251E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 004
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 29.7N 125.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.7N 125.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 30.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.7N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.3N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 29.9N 124.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA)
WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 124.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 996 HPA
AT 29.7N 124.8E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 30.1N 123.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 30.6N 121.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 31.8N 116.3E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 33.1N 113.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 29.7N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 30.6N 121.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171800UTC 31.8N 116.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181800UTC 33.1N 113.9E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 29.4N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 30.4N 122.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171200UTC 30.6N 117.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 181200UTC 31.4N 114.9E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180815141522
2018081512 21W RUMBIA 003 05 320 13 SATL 030
T000 291N 1259E 035 R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 000 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 300N 1244E 040 R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 055 SW QD 085 NW QD
T024 304N 1225E 045 R034 205 NE QD 150 SE QD 055 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 307N 1200E 035 R034 250 NE QD 145 SE QD 020 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 314N 1175E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 29.1N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.7N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 125.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
2118081512 291N1259E 35
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 29.1N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 30.0N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.4N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.7N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 31.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 125.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 186 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 1818 RUMBIA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151200UTC 29.3N 126.0E
MOVEMENT NW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 161200UTC 30.4N 122.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
48HR
POSITION 171200UTC 30.6N 117.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) 996 HPA
AT 29.3N 125.7E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 30.3N 124.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 30.4N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 30.6N 117.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 31.4N 114.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 29.3N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 30.4N 122.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 30.6N 117.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 181200UTC 31.4N 114.9E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 29.0N 126.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 30.4N 123.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170600UTC 30.2N 120.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 180600UTC 31.0N 116.2E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180815081532
2018081506 21W RUMBIA 002 04 340 12 SATL RADR 030
T000 281N 1269E 030
T012 296N 1257E 030
T024 302N 1240E 035 R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 085 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 305N 1218E 045 R034 225 NE QD 155 SE QD 075 SW QD 175 NW QD
T048 309N 1189E 030
T072 319N 1168E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 29.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 30.2N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.5N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.9N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.9N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1274E 30
2118081500 270N1274E 30
2118081506 281N1269E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA) WARNING NR 002
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 28.1N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 29.6N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 30.2N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.5N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 30.9N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 31.9N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 107 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTJP24 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1818 RUMBIA (1818) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
996 HPA
AT 28.0N 126.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 30.0N 123.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 30.2N 120.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 31.0N 116.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 150600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (RUMBIA) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 28.0N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN

Original Message :

WTPQ33 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (RUMBIA) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO. TS
RUMBIA IS LOCATED AT 28.0N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 28.0N 126.9E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 30.0N 123.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 30.2N 120.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 180600UTC 31.0N 116.2E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ23 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 27.4N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 29.0N 124.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPN54 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 180815023440
2018081500 21W TWENTYONE 001 04 005 13 SATL 060
T000 270N 1276E 030
T012 288N 1269E 030
T024 299N 1257E 035 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 303N 1242E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 306N 1226E 045 R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 318N 1186E 020
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 28.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 29.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 127.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2118081300 216N1302E 15
2118081306 218N1296E 15
2118081312 221N1290E 15
2118081318 224N1286E 15
2118081400 232N1279E 15
2118081406 240N1274E 15
2118081412 248N1270E 15
2118081418 257N1275E 30
2118081500 270N1276E 30
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN34 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 27.0N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0N 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 28.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 29.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 30.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 27.4N 127.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

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