Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MEKUNU-18
in Oman

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 252100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180525190617
2018052518 02A MEKUNU 016 01 300 04 SATL 010
T000 166N 0539E 100 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD
080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 175N 0533E 075
T024 182N 0528E 050
T036 186N 0523E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180525190617
2018052518 02A MEKUNU 016 01 300 04 SATL 010
T000 166N 0539E 100 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 175N 0533E 075
T024 182N 0528E 050
T036 186N 0523E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6N 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052512 164N 543E 100
0218052512 164N 543E 100
0218052512 164N 543E 100
0218052518 166N 539E 100
0218052518 166N 539E 100
0218052518 166N 539E 100


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 252100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.5N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.2N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6N 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 53.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 27 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 251715Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 7-NM EYE. THE
POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE IN BOTH INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS),
SLIGHTLY BELOW A 251428Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KTS. TC 02A IS NOW
LESS THAN 30NM FROM THE OMANI COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
SALALAH ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRANSITIONING TO
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 45 KT RANGE FOR SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING UP
TO 55-60 KTS. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR 26/00Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND. IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN AS A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE DRY,
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 251500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180525130412
2018052512 02A MEKUNU 015 01 340 08 SATL 020
T000 164N 0543E 100 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 174N 0537E 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD
100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 183N 0531E 060 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 125 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 188N 0525E 040
T048 191N 0517E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180525130412
2018052512 02A MEKUNU 015 01 340 08 SATL 020
T000 164N 0543E 100 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 174N 0537E 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 183N 0531E 060 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 005 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 188N 0525E 040
T048 191N 0517E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.3N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.8N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052512 164N 543E 100
0218052512 164N 543E 100
0218052512 164N 543E 100


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 251500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.4N 54.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 54.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.3N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.8N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.1N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 54.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250941Z AMSR-2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 15-NM
EYE. BASED ON THE RECENT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 100
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 02A
IS APPROACHING THE OMAN COAST THUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SALALAH
ARE INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 34 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS AS OF 25/1250Z. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
25/18Z AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND, TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AS A
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z,
260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180525075347
2018052506 02A MEKUNU 014 01 340 06 SATL 025
T000 157N 0546E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD
165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 167N 0541E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD
150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 178N 0535E 060 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 184N 0530E 040
T048 188N 0524E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180525075347
2018052506 02A MEKUNU 014 01 340 06 SATL 025
T000 157N 0546E 090 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 185 SE QD 165 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 167N 0541E 090 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 178N 0535E 060 R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 184N 0530E 040
T048 188N 0524E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.7N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.4N 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.8N 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052415 146N 552E 75
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052418 149N 549E 80
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052500 151N 548E 85
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052506 157N 546E 90
0218052506 157N 546E 90


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.7N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.7N 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.7N 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.4N 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.8N 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING 250315Z SSMIS 37 GHZ AND
250526Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGES, AS WELL AS A 250600Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
RECENT AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN
OMAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST FOLLOWING A
REASSESSMENT OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE DATA, INCLUDING THE IMAGERY CITED ABOVE. THE CENTER OF TC
02A IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SALALAH WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OVER LAND BY TAU 48. A SUPPORTIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW TC 02A TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL, DESPITE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND TERRAIN TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z,
260300Z AND 260900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 242100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524194935
2018052418 02A MEKUNU 012 01 335 09 SATL 060
T000 151N 0550E 080 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD
200 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 162N 0542E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 225 SE QD
225 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 171N 0535E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD
140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 0530E 060 R034 100 NE QD 155 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 186N 0521E 040
T072 192N 0508E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524194935
2018052418 02A MEKUNU 012 01 335 09 SATL 060
T000 151N 0550E 080 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 200 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 162N 0542E 090 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 225 SE QD 225 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 171N 0535E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 179N 0530E 060 R034 100 NE QD 155 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD
T048 186N 0521E 040
T072 192N 0508E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 55.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.9N 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.6N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052418 151N 550E 80
0218052418 151N 550E 80
0218052418 151N 550E 80


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 55.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 55.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.2N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.1N 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.9N 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.6N 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.2N 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 54.8E.


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 241500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 55.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 55.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 55.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 55.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.1N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.0N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241132Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. EIR, HOWEVER, DEPICTS A NARROW BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND
AND LOSS OF AN EYE FEATURE, AND IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 02A IS TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS TC 02A TRACKS INLAND AFTER
TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AND TURN
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 241500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524132644
2018052412 02A MEKUNU 011 01 350 06 SATL 040
T000 143N 0554E 075 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD
200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 153N 0550E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
065 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD
210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 162N 0545E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD
170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 171N 0538E 060 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 178N 0531E 045 R034 085 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 190N 0515E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 55.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524132644
2018052412 02A MEKUNU 011 01 350 06 SATL 040
T000 143N 0554E 075 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 153N 0550E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 162N 0545E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 115 NW QD
T036 171N 0538E 060 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD
T048 178N 0531E 045 R034 085 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 190N 0515E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 55.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 55.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.3N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.2N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.1N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.0N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75
0218052412 143N 554E 75


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 240900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524074906
2018052406 02A MEKUNU 010 01 350 06 SATL 030
T000 137N 0555E 080 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD
200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 147N 0552E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD
235 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 156N 0548E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD
245 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 166N 0542E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD
165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 174N 0534E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 190 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 186N 0518E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524074906
2018052406 02A MEKUNU 010 01 350 06 SATL 030
T000 137N 0555E 080 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 147N 0552E 090 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD 235 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 156N 0548E 095 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 245 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 166N 0542E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD 165 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 174N 0534E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 125 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 186N 0518E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 55.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.6N 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.4N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 55.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80
0218052406 137N 555E 80


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 55.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 55.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 55.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.6N 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.4N 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.6N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 55.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 214 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED EYE WITH RAPIDLY-CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION.
THE 240446Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A SLIGHT TILT WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL (89GHZ) MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE LOCATED ABOUT 17NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL (36GHZ) MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE DUE TO
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS HEDGED CLOSE
TO THE LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES AS WELL AS A 240330Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 80
KNOTS. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS IT
TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU 36, TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE STEADILY
AND TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 240300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524021045
2018052400 02A MEKUNU 009 01 340 05 SATL 030
T000 131N 0556E 080 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
085 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD
200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 140N 0553E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD
235 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 150N 0550E 095 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD
210 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 160N 0545E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 169N 0538E 075 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 190 SE QD
140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 182N 0522E 040
T096 191N 0503E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180524021045
2018052400 02A MEKUNU 009 01 340 05 SATL 030
T000 131N 0556E 080 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 195 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 140N 0553E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 235 SE QD 235 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 150N 0550E 095 R064 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 210 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 160N 0545E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 169N 0538E 075 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 182N 0522E 040
T096 191N 0503E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.9N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.2N 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.1N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 55.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80
0218052400 131N 556E 80


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 240300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 13.1N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.0N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.0N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.9N 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.2N 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.1N 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 55.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON A TIGHT CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 232252Z SSMI MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 02A IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AROUND TAU 48.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). AS IT TRACKS INLAND AFTER TAU
48, TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE STEADILY AND TURN GRADUALLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 232100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523193435
2018052318 02A MEKUNU 008 01 340 06 SATL 040
T000 126N 0558E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD
145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 136N 0555E 085 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD
175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0552E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 210 SE QD
215 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 155N 0549E 095 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD
220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 166N 0542E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 190 SE QD
170 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 180N 0527E 045 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 193N 0510E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523193435
2018052318 02A MEKUNU 008 01 340 06 SATL 040
T000 126N 0558E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 145 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 136N 0555E 085 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 146N 0552E 090 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 210 SE QD 215 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 155N 0549E 095 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 215 SE QD 220 SW QD 115 NW QD
T048 166N 0542E 085 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 095 NW QD
T072 180N 0527E 045 R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 193N 0510E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.6N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.0N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.3N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75
0218052318 126N 558E 75


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 232100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 55.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 55.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.6N 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.6N 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.5N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.6N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.0N 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.3N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD SYMMETRY AROUND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY A 231714Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
POSITION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 231716Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BETWEEN THE PGTW, KNES, AND SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 TO 82 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (OVER 31
CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE
CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. TC 02A WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE CYCLONE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. TC 02A WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 231500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523134031
2018052312 02A MEKUNU 007 01 340 05 SATL 045
T000 120N 0560E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD
130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 131N 0557E 075 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
060 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD
185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 141N 0554E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD
225 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 151N 0550E 090 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 225 SE QD
235 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 161N 0545E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD
190 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 176N 0532E 055 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
075 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 189N 0515E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523134031
2018052312 02A MEKUNU 007 01 340 05 SATL 045
T000 120N 0560E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 131N 0557E 075 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 185 SE QD 185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 141N 0554E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 220 SE QD 225 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 151N 0550E 090 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 225 SE QD 235 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 161N 0545E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 176N 0532E 055 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD
T096 189N 0515E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.1N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.1N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.6N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052300 111N 562E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65
0218052312 120N 560E 65


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 231500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.1N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.1N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.1N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.6N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9N 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT BANDING
CONVECTION AROUND TC 02A WHICH IS NO LONGER EXHIBITING AN EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 231200Z METEOSAT-8
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS TC 02A HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A 230949Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 66
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TC 02A IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN VERY WARM (31-32 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AND WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02A WILL
CONTINUE TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR WILL BUILD TO THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 02A TO TRACK MORE
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES LAND. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS
BY TAU 36. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR JUST WEST OF SALALAH, OMAN NEAR TAU 60
WITH WINDS NEAR 80 KNOTS. BY TAU 72 THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE TO 55
KNOTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. BY TAU 96 TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE OVER
LAND AS THE INTENSITY DECREASES TO 30 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER,
DESPITE THE IMPROVEMENT IN MODEL AGREEMENT THERE IS STILL A LARGE
MODEL SPREAD OF 110 NM AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. DUE TO THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 230900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523075655
2018052306 02A MEKUNU 006 01 345 04 SATL 030
T000 115N 0562E 060 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 122N 0560E 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 195 SE QD
190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 132N 0558E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 210 SE QD
210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 141N 0554E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 215 SE QD
220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 151N 0549E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD
235 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 169N 0537E 075 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD
120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 183N 0520E 050
T120 190N 0502E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523075655
2018052306 02A MEKUNU 006 01 345 04 SATL 030
T000 115N 0562E 060 R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 122N 0560E 070 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 195 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 132N 0558E 075 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 141N 0554E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 215 SE QD 220 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 151N 0549E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD 235 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 169N 0537E 075 R064 015 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T096 183N 0520E 050
T120 190N 0502E 025
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.2N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.1N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.1N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.3N 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.0N 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 111N 563E 55
0218052300 111N 563E 55
0218052306 115N 562E 60
0218052306 115N 562E 60


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 230900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.2N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.2N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.2N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.1N 55.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.1N 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.9N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.3N 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.0N 50.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 56.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT AND DEEP CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02A. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT
TC MEKUNU HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
230536Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS) BASED ON THE RECENT EYE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS). TC 02A IS ALSO BENEFITING FROM
VERY GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN VERY WARM (31-32 DEGREES CELSIUS)
AND WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02A WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THE STR WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND ALLOW TC 02A TO TRACK MORE TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR TC
02A TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR
JUST WEST OF SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 WITH WINDS NEAR 80
KNOTS. BY TAU 72 THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE TO 75 KNOTS DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. INTENSITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TAU 120
AS TC 02A BEGINS TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD OF 215 NM AT THE TIME OF
LANDFALL. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48 THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z,
240300Z AND 240900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 230300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523022648
2018052300 02A MEKUNU 005 01 295 04 SATL 060
T000 109N 0560E 055 R050 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 113N 0556E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD
165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 119N 0551E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD
190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 125N 0547E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD
185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 137N 0544E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD
175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 161N 0533E 085 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD
145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 176N 0518E 055 R034 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 182N 0501E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180523022648
2018052300 02A MEKUNU 005 01 295 04 SATL 060
T000 109N 0560E 055 R050 065 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 113N 0556E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 119N 0551E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 145 NW QD
T036 125N 0547E 075 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 090 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 137N 0544E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 175 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 161N 0533E 085 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD 145 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 176N 0518E 055 R034 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 182N 0501E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.3N 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.9N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.5N 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.7N 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.1N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2N 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45
0218052300 109N 560E 55
0218052300 109N 560E 55


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 230300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.3N 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.3N 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.9N 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 12.5N 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.7N 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 16.1N 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.6N 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2N 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (MEKUNU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 592 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SIGNATURE WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 230012Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 89
GHZ BAND, AND A SOMEWHAT LESS WELL DEFINED EYE IN THE 37 GHZ
CHANNEL. THERE IS A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST TILT WITH HEIGHT EVIDENT
IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DUE TO LIGHT EASTERLY VWS OVER THE SYSTEM.
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
QUADRANTS AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES AND
SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.4 (54
KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT POLEWARD OUTLFOW REMAINS ROBUST, WHILE
EQUATORWARD FLOW HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WESTWARD CHANNEL ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. VWS IN THE AREA IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) THOUGH BEING OFFSET
BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE VERY WARM (31-32
CELSIUS) AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
LANDFALL. THE STR HAS REMAINED IN PLACE FROM WESTERN INDIA INTO
WESTERN OMAN LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, LEADING TO A SLOWING
IN FORWARD MOTION AND A TURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC MEKUNU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
PASSING JUST EAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN,
ALLOWING TC 02A TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN/OMAN BORDER REGION
JUST AFTER TAU 72. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH
TAU 48, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36 DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VWS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. VWS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY TAU 48, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD
OF MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85
KNOTS BY TAU 48. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FLATLINE THROUGH TAU 72
AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DECREASES NEAR THE COAST AND VWS INCREASES
NEAR THE COASTLINE. THERE EXISTS A POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 WHICH IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE
FORECAST TAUS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO
TERRAIN INTERACTION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT REFLECT THE
CURRENT MOTION AND IS INDICATING A RAPID TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH OR
EVEN NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR-TERM, WITH ONLY GFS AND COAMPS
INDICATING A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK LIES WELL
WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 BUT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS FROM TAU 72 TO 120. IN VIEW OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 222100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522202135
2018052218 02A TWO 004 01 305 05 SATL 045
T000 107N 0564E 045 R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 117N 0562E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 127N 0560E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD
180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 139N 0557E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 055 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD
210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 147N 0553E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 205 SE QD
185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 160N 0545E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
030 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 175 SE QD
135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 176N 0531E 055 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 186N 0512E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522202135
2018052218 02A TWO 004 01 305 05 SATL 045
T000 107N 0564E 045 R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 117N 0562E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 127N 0560E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 139N 0557E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 147N 0553E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 205 SE QD 185 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 160N 0545E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 176N 0531E 055 R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 186N 0512E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.9N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.6N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.6N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 56.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 568E 40
0218052218 107N 564E 45


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 222100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.7N 56.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 56.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.7N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.7N 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 13.9N 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.7N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 16.0N 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.6N 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.6N 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 56.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 221806Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL 45 KNOT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE OVERALL FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (31-32
CELSIUS). THROUGH TAU 72, TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EDGE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 02A WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR BUILDS TO
THE NORTH. THE CYLCONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GALWEM TRACKS FURTHER TO THE EAST WHILE NAVGEM
IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST (IN LATER TAUS) OF THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS
TRACK. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD PRESENTED BY THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 221500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522131303
2018052212 02A TWO 003 01 335 07 SATL 045
T000 104N 0569E 040 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 114N 0566E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 124N 0565E 060 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
140 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 134N 0563E 070 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 205 SE QD
200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 148N 0558E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD
215 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 161N 0550E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 255 SE QD
180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 174N 0537E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
080 NE QD 140 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 185N 0520E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522131303
2018052212 02A TWO 003 01 335 07 SATL 045
T000 104N 0569E 040 R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 114N 0566E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 180 SE QD 165 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 124N 0565E 060 R050 035 NE QD 065 SE QD 080 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 134N 0563E 070 R064 005 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 205 SE QD 200 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 148N 0558E 075 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 230 SE QD 215 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 161N 0550E 080 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 255 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 174N 0537E 060 R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 140 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 185N 0520E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.4N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.4N 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.8N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5N 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 56.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 98N 572E 35
0218052212 104N 569E 40


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 221500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.4N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.4N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.4N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.4N 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 14.8N 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.1N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.4N 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.5N 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 56.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH
OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME DEEPER AND MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A 221134Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC AND DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 220918Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02A IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BETWEEN 10 AND 15
KNOTS. POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM
31 TO 32 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO
CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE INTENSIFYING. AFTER TAU
48 TC 02A WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKENING LOCATED
BETWEEN THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL STR TO THE
NORTHWEST. EXTREMELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF TC
02A AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSES. TC 02A WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY
BEFORE TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL TC 02A WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NAVGM AND AFUI OUTLIERS
TO THE EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST
OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY FORECAST. OVERALL THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z,
230900Z AND 231500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522073538
2018052206 02A TWO 002 01 350 05 SATL 045
T000 096N 0572E 035 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 105N 0568E 045 R034 115 NE QD 200 SE QD 175 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 116N 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
135 NE QD 205 SE QD 175 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 129N 0565E 070 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD
185 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 140N 0562E 075 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD
220 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 159N 0550E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD
215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 171N 0539E 060 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 181N 0525E 035
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522073538
2018052206 02A TWO 002 01 350 05 SATL 045
T000 096N 0572E 035 R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 105N 0568E 045 R034 115 NE QD 200 SE QD 175 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 116N 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 205 SE QD 175 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 129N 0565E 070 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 140N 0562E 075 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 230 SE QD 220 SW QD 155 NW QD
T072 159N 0550E 075 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 240 SE QD 215 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 171N 0539E 060 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 095 NW QD
T120 181N 0525E 035
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.9N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.9N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1N 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.1N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35
0218052206 96N 572E 35


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.6N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.9N 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.0N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.9N 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.1N 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 18.1N 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM SOUTH
OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
CONVECTION LOCATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 220530Z
METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND HEDGED ABOVE A KNES DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 02A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WHICH CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT,
RANGING FROM 31 TO 32 DEGREE CELSIUS. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TC 02A TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK WHILE INTENSIFYING. BY TAU 48 TC 02A WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKENING LOCATED BETWEEN THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AN ADDITIONAL STR TO THE NORTHWEST. EXTREMELY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02A AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSES. TC
02A WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. LANDFALL WILL
OCCUR NEAR SALALAH, OMAN SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96. AFTER LANDFALL TC 02A
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH SEVERAL OUTLIERS TO THE EAST (NVGM, COTI, AND AFUI). THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK.
THERE IS A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO
INTENSITY. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS INTENSITY, FAVORING HWRF. THEREFORE, OVERALL THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z,
230300Z AND 230900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522022403
2018052200 02A TWO 001 01 305 07 SATL 060
T000 091N 0573E 035 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 098N 0566E 045 R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 109N 0564E 055 R050 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034
155 NE QD 165 SE QD 175 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 121N 0564E 065 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050
040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD
155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 135N 0562E 070 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD
185 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 157N 0553E 085 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050
055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD
200 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 174N 0542E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050
045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 175 SE QD
095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 185N 0528E 035 R034 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 57.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 180522022403
2018052200 02A TWO 001 01 305 07 SATL 060
T000 091N 0573E 035 R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 098N 0566E 045 R034 150 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD
T024 109N 0564E 055 R050 025 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 165 SE QD 175 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 121N 0564E 065 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 175 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 135N 0562E 070 R064 015 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 185 SE QD 185 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 157N 0553E 085 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 174N 0542E 070 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 175 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T120 185N 0528E 035 R034 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 57.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 57.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.8N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.9N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.1N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.5N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.5N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM SOUTH OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
//
0218052018 75N 591E 25
0218052100 77N 588E 25
0218052106 79N 585E 25
0218052112 83N 582E 25
0218052118 87N 579E 30
0218052200 91N 573E 35


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZMAY2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 57.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 57.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.8N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.9N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZMAY2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.1N 57.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1N 57.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 9.8N 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.9N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 12.1N 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.5N 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 15.7N 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.5N 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM SOUTH OF
MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, DISPLACED MAINLY TO THE WEST OF
A THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FEATURES AND A 212324Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A RELATIVELY
WELL DEFINED LLCC AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES T2.0
(30 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY IS SET HIGHER THAN
THE DVORAK BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AND A PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS FROM 211730Z WHICH REVEALED 30-35 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH ONLY 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE OTHER QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
IS SUPPORTED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONGEST TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH, WITH SOME IMPINGEMENT ON THE OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE. VWS IN THE AREA IS LOW (10-15 KNOTS), WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. SSTS IN
THE AREA ARE VERY WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) AND PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12. THE
STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, RETREAT TOWARDS THE EAST AND
REORIENT TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH AXIS, ALLOWING TC 02A TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWARD AFTER THROUGH TAU 48. THE TRACK BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND TAU 48 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST IN THE
ARABIAN SEA AND ANOTHER STR EXTENSION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SAUDI PENINSULA. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH TAU
72, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN
TAUS 36 AND 48 DUE TO A REDUCTION IN THE OUTFLOW DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. OUTFLOW IMPROVES THEREAFTER AND TC 02A IS FORECAST TO REACH
PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 72 AT 85 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
SALALAH, OMAN AROUND TAU 90. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT IS NOT CAPTURED IN THE FORECAST
TAUS. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO A DRYING
OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION, REACHING ONLY 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY POOR AGREEMENT, THOUGH
ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK. ECMWF AND BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES DELINEATE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, TAKING THE SYSTEM
INTO EASTERN YEMEN. THE GALWEM AND COAMPS MODELS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS, TAKING THE SYSTEM INLAND NEAR DUQM, OMAN. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED BETWEEN THE OUTLIERS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, BUT WITHIN THE
DENSE CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INCREASING BIFURCATION IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A