Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FAKIR-18
in Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180425010053
2018042500 20S FAKIR 007 01 130 12 SATL 035
T000 246S 0591E 035 R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 254S 0602E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180425010053
2018042500 20S FAKIR 007 01 130 12 SATL 035
T000 246S 0591E 035 R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 085 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 254S 0602E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z
IS 12 FEET.
//
2018042112 81S 519E 25
2018042118 86S 512E 25
2018042200 93S 508E 25
2018042206 101S 506E 25
2018042212 111S 506E 25
2018042218 122S 510E 25
2018042300 133S 515E 25
2018042306 146S 521E 35
2018042312 160S 529E 40
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042412 227S 572E 60
2018042412 227S 572E 60
2018042418 238S 581E 50
2018042418 238S 581E 50
2018042500 246S 591E 35


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISSIPATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER 80NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 59.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 59.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.4S 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8S 59.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISSIPATING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION
SHEARED OVER 80NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A
LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE IN A 242323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY AND REFLECTS THE
DISSIPATING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TC 20S HAS POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS OFFSET BY VERY HIGH (60-70 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM,
REACHING FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND A
TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER MADAGASCAR AND SLOWS THE FORWARD
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, RETAINING THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH TAU
12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION AND ALONG TRACK SPEED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET.//


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 251217
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/04/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAKIR) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3 S / 60.6 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
27.2 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2018/04/26 AT 12 UTC:
27.4 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC ON EX-FAKIR. IT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE
FMEE AWIO20 BULLETINS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 250621
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/04/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAKIR) 1000 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7 S / 59.9 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
26.7 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/04/26 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 250017
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/04/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 25/04/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAKIR) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0 S / 59.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
26.1 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/04/26 AT 00 UTC:
26.3 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 242100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180424193236
2018042418 20S FAKIR 006 01 145 14 SATL 030
T000 238S 0581E 050 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034
145 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 252S 0592E 040 R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 263S 0605E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180424193236
2018042418 20S FAKIR 006 01 145 14 SATL 030
T000 238S 0581E 050 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 252S 0592E 040 R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 263S 0605E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
2018042112 81S 519E 25
2018042118 86S 512E 25
2018042200 93S 508E 25
2018042206 101S 506E 25
2018042212 111S 506E 25
2018042218 122S 510E 25
2018042300 133S 515E 25
2018042306 146S 521E 35
2018042312 160S 529E 40
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042412 227S 572E 60
2018042412 227S 572E 60
2018042418 238S 581E 50
2018042418 238S 581E 50


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 58.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 58.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.2S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.3S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 58.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AND A LOW REFLECTIVITY NOTCH FEATURE IN A
241746Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) WHICH REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
20S STILL HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (40-50
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (25-26
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DISORGANIZED,
DESPITE THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST MADAGASCAR. TC FAKIR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH TRANSITS TO THE EAST, A RIDGE BUILDS IN
BEHIND, OVER MADAGASCAR, WHICH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS ALONG ITS
FORECAST TRACK LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
DIRECTION WITH A FEW OUTLIERS (NAVGEM, GFS ENSEMBLE, JGSM) THAT
PREDICT TC 20S WILL HOOK BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM
IS SHEARED APART. TRACK SPEED ALSO VARIES SUBSTANTIALLY WITHIN THE
SOUTHEAST TRACKING CONSENSUS MODELS. DUE TO THESE OUTLIERS AND THE
VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241821

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/8/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 24/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.9 S / 59.1 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 25/04/2018 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 25/04/2018 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 26/04/2018 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 26/04/2018 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 27/04/2018 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.0- CI=3.5

LE PUISSANT CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST (ESTIME A 45KT SELON
LE CIMSS) CONTINUE D'AFFECTER LA STRUCTURE DE FAKIR. SUR LES 6
DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONVECTION A ETE EMPORTEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD. LA PRESENTATION NUAGEUSE EST DESORMAIS TRES CISAILLEE ET LE
CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES SEMBLE ETRE APPARU AU NORD-OUEST DE LA
CONVECTION PRINCIPALE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES. CE
POSITIONNEMENT EST COHERENT AVEC LA STRUCTURE DEGRADEE APPARAISSANT
SUR L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 89GHZ AMSU-B DE 1629Z.

DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLE ET ARRIVANT SUR DES
EAUX FRAICHES AU SUD DE 24S, LE SYSTEME VA COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES DANS LES HEURES QUI VIENNENT. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'AFFAIBLIR RAPIDEMENT CEPENDANT, AUCUN MODELE
DISOPONIBLE NE PROPOSANT DE CREUSEMENT EXTRA-TROPICAL.

FAKIR DEVRAIT ALORS SE COMBLER A LA LISIERE SUD DU DOMAINE TROPICAL.
LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT DERIVER VERS L'EST PUIS LE NORD-EST EN
SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE AVANT DE DISPARAITRE. UNE CERTAINE
DISPERSION EXISTE SUR LA FIN DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LA REMONTEE EN
DIRECTION GENERALE DU NORD ETANT ENCORE INCERTAINE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241821

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 59.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE
DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/25 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/04/25 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2018/04/26 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/04/26 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/04/27 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5

THE POWERFUL NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT (ESTIMATED AT 45KT BY THE
CIMSS) CONTINUES TO AFFECT FAKIR. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALL
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FAKIR
IS NOW IN A VERY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER SEEMS TO APPEAR ON THE LAST SAT IMAGES IN THE NORTH-WEST OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE AREA. THIS LOCATION IS COHERENT WITH THE
STRUCTURE DISPLAYED ON 1629Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MW IMAGE.

IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SST SOUTH
OF 24S, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT HOURS. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS NO AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEEPENING.

FAKIR IS THUS EXPECTED TO FILL-UP AS IT WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS AND THEN
NORTH-EASTWARDS LATER THIS WEEK SOMEWHERE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
THE TROPICAL DOMAIN BEFORE DISAPPEARING. SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
EXIST ON THE END OF THIS TRACK FORECAST, THE FINAL NORTHWARD TURN
BEING STILL UNCERTAIN.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241811
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/04/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.9 S / 59.1 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING
UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
25.5 S / 60.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 18 UTC:
26.7 S / 61.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 241500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180424134527
2018042412 20S FAKIR 005 01 150 18 SATL 030
T000 228S 0572E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 248S 0586E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
090 NE QD 145 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 261S 0598E 040 R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 270S 0612E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.8S 58.6E


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180424134527
2018042412 20S FAKIR 005 01 150 18 SATL 030
T000 228S 0572E 060 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 248S 0586E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 145 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 261S 0598E 040 R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 270S 0612E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.8S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.1S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.0S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 57.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
//
2018042112 81S 519E 25
2018042118 86S 512E 25
2018042200 93S 508E 25
2018042206 101S 506E 25
2018042212 111S 506E 25
2018042218 122S 510E 25
2018042300 133S 515E 25
2018042306 146S 521E 35
2018042312 160S 529E 40
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042412 228S 572E 60
2018042412 228S 572E 60


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 241500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.8S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 22.8S 57.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 57.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.8S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.1S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 27.0S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 57.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DISINTEGRATED SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 241105Z SSMIS
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS AN OPEN REMNANT OF A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK
MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS); FINAL T
VALUES OF T3.0 FROM KNES AND PGTW INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TREND
IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HIGH (40-50 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND BECOMING HIGHLY
DISORGANIZED, DESPITE A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. TC 20S IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE STR TO THE EAST RECEDES AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TC
20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COOLING
SSTS ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
DIRECTION FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A FEW OUTLIERS
PREDICT TC 20S HOOKING BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES SHEARED APART. TRACK SPEED ALSO VARIES WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST-
FAVORING MEMBER MODELS. DUE TO THESE OUTLIERS AND DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 241303

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/8/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 24/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.0 S / 57.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 20 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 40 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 25/04/2018 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 25/04/2018 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 26/04/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 26/04/2018 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 27/04/2018 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PUISSANT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, LA
STRUCTURE DE FAKIR A COMMENCE A SE DEGRADER AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES. LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES MONTRE UN CENTRE EN BORDURE
NORD-OUEST DE LA MASSE NUAGEUSE QUI COMMENCE SERIEUSEMENT A PERDRE DE
SON ORGANISATION. LA PETITE TAILLE DU COEUR DU SYSTEME JUSTIFIE UNE
LEGERE BAISSE DES VENTS MAX AU SEIN DU SYSTEME (FAIBLE INERTIE).

DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS DEFAVORABLE ET ARRIVANT SUR DES
EAUX FRAICHES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A PERDRE SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES AU COURS DE LA NUIT PROCHAINE.
L'ENVIRONNEMENT N'EST TOUTEFOIS PAS FAVORABLE A UN CREUSEMENT
EXTRA-TROPICAL ET FAKIR DEVRAIT SE COMBLER A LA LISIERE SUD DU
DOMAINE TROPICAL AVEC UN MINIMUM QUI DEVRAIT DERIVER VERS L'EST PUIS
LE NORD-EST EN SECONDE PARTIE DE SEMAINE AVANT DE DISPARAITRE. UNE
CERTAINE DISPERSION EXISTE MERCREDI / JEUDI SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DE
FIN DE VIE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 241303

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/8/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 57.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN
DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/25 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/04/25 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2018/04/26 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2018/04/26 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2018/04/27 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, FILLING UP


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 CI=4.0+

UNDER THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY
CONSTRAINT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FAKIR HAS STARTED TO DETERIORATE
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY SHOW THE CENTER
LOCATED ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS THAT IS
INCREASINGLY BECOMING ILL DEFINED. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE
JUSTIFY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE MAX WINDS (LOWER WINDS INERTIA).

IN AN INCREASING UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SST, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS PURE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
TONIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOWEVER UNFAVOURABLE FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL
DEEPENING AND FAKIR IS EXPECTED TO FILL-UP AS IT WILL DRIFT EASTWARDS
AND THEN NORTH-EASTWARDS LATER THIS WEEK ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
THE TROPICAL DOMAIN. SOME SPREAD EXIST ON THIS TRACK OF THE END OF
LIFE OF FAKIR.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 241215
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/04/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.0 S / 57.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
24.7 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 12 UTC:
25.8 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, LOW

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 240900 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180424082603
2018042406 20S FAKIR 004 01 150 21 SATL 020
T000 213S 0562E 065 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034
150 NE QD 135 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 237S 0579E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 253S 0591E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
105 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 267S 0605E 040 R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 272S 0622E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180424082603
2018042406 20S FAKIR 004 01 150 21 SATL 020
T000 213S 0562E 065 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 055 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 237S 0579E 060 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD
T024 253S 0591E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 267S 0605E 040 R034 075 NE QD 125 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 272S 0622E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
//
2018042112 81S 519E 25
2018042118 86S 512E 25
2018042200 93S 508E 25
2018042206 101S 506E 25
2018042212 111S 506E 25
2018042218 122S 510E 25
2018042300 133S 515E 25
2018042306 146S 521E 35
2018042312 160S 529E 40
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042318 176S 539E 50
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042400 195S 551E 60
2018042406 213S 562E 65
2018042406 213S 562E 65


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 21.3S 56.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 56.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.7S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 26.7S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 27.2S 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 21.9S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED
EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND REPLACED BY A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240229Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE.
THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN LOWER FREQUENCY MICROWAVE
IMAGES, SUGGESTING THAT HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (25-40
KNOTS) IS TILTING THE SYSTEM. THE HIGH VWS IS CURRENTLY BEING
OFFSET BY WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS), AND IS HEDGED AT THE
HIGHER CI VALUE OF T4.0 DUE TO A 240545Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 77 KTS. TC
20S IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST
AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE STR TO THE EAST RECEDES. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
WEAKENING DUE TO THE SEVERE VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COOLER SSTS ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE
WHERE TC 20S INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND UNDERGOES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM TAU 36 TO TAU 48. MESOSCALE MODELS
FAVOR THIS SCENARIO IN WHICH TC 20S REINTENSIFIES AFTER TAU 48, BUT
WINDS AT THIS POINT WILL LIKELY BE EXPANSIVE AND FRONTAL IN NATURE
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
DIRECTION FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERAL OUTLIERS
PREDICT TC 20S HOOKING BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST; AS VWS ERODES
THE SYSTEM, IT WILL BECOME MORE SUBJECT TO LOWER-LEVEL STEERING
FLOW WHICH AT THAT POINT WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER, IF TC 20S
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, IT WOULD ASSUME A MORE
EASTWARD, ACCELERATING TRACK. THE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240656

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/8/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 24/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 23 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 977 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 S0: 190 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 S0: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 S0: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/04/2018 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 25/04/2018 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2018 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2018 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/04/2018 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 27/04/2018 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0+

LE CENTRE DE FAKIR A TRANSITE A 05 UTC A ENVIRON 20 KM AU LARGE DE
PITON SAINTE-ROSE SUR LA COTE EST DE LA REUNION. LA ZONE DE VENTS LES
PLUS FORTS A LONGER TOUTE LA COTE EST DE L'A LE OU UNE PRESSION DE
981 HPA A ETE MESUREE (STATION NON OFFICIELLE) A PROXIMITE DU RAYON
DE VENT MAX. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A ETE AUGMENTEE EN CONSEQUENCE,
AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS PASSANT EN MER ENTRE LA REUNION ET
MAURICE, DU COTE GAUCHE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.

PEU DE CHANGEMENT SUR L'EVOLUTION ULTERIEURE DE FAKIR, HORMIS UNE
TRAJECTOIRE ENCORE PLUS RAPIDE POUR TENIR COMPTE DU DEPLACEMENT
ACTUEL: PAR LA SUITE L'ACCELERATION RECENTE MODIFIE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU
VIRAGE A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC UN SYSTEME QUI S'EVACUE PLUS
RAPIDEMENT VERS L'EST TOUJOURS BLOQUE AU SUD PAR L'ARRIVEE D'UNE
NOUVELLE DORSALE PAR L'OUEST.

EN LIEN AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE, FAKIR RESISTE PLUS LONGUEMENT AU
CISAILLEMENT. LES DERNIERES IMAGES RADAR MONTRENT TOUTEFOIS QUE LA
STRUCTURE EN OEIL SE DEGRADE ET QUE LE CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT IMPACTER
PLUS SIGNIFICATIVEMENT LE SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES. EN
MERCREDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, LE MINIMUM
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. SE DEPLACANT SUR DES
EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE COMBLER A PARTIR DE
JEUDI.

L'AMELIORATION EST EN COURS SUR LES MASCAREIGNES ET PARTICULIEREMENT
SUR LA REUNION AVEC UNE BAISSE SIGNIFICATIVE DES PRECIPITATIONS ET
DES VENTS FORTS AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240656

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 977 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 300 SW: 190 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/24 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/25 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/04/25 18 UTC: 26.8 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/04/26 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/04/26 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2018/04/27 06 UTC: 24.4 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+

THE CENTER OF FAKIR HAS PASSED AT 05 UTC ABOUT 20 KM EAST OF PITON
ST-ROSE ON THE EASTERN COAST OF LA REUNION. THE STRONGEST WINDS HAS
PASSED VERY NEAR THE EASTERN COAST WHERE AN UNOFFICIAL STATION HAS
REPORTED A 981 HPA NEAR THE RMW. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRATED
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
ESTIMATED LOCATED ON THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

NO MAJOR CHANGE WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF FAKIR EXCEPTED A MORE FASTER
TRACK TO TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FAST MOTION: THE RECENT
ACCELERATION CHANGES THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE TURNING THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SYSTEM THAT EVOLVES FASTER EASTWARDS ALWAYS BLOCKED TO THE
SOUTH BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE FROM THE WEST.

IN CONNECTION WITH THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT, FAKIR RESISTS LONGER TO
WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE EYE PATTERN
IS LOOSING DEFINITION AND THE CURRENT STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASINGLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMISM WILL
EVEN MAKE EFFECT AND DURING WEDNESDAY, IN A MORE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOVING
OVER COOLER WATER AND ALWAYS UNDER A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER
CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FILL UP ON THURSDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE MASCEREIGNES ISLAND AND SPECIALLY LA
REUNION SHOULD IMPROVE FASTLY LATER TODAY.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 240619
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/04/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 56.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 23 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
23.8 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 06 UTC:
25.7 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 232100 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180423194055
2018042318 20S FAKIR 002 01 145 19 SATL 030
T000 175S 0541E 050 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
095 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 203S 0558E 055 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034
120 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 228S 0574E 055 R050 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
125 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 244S 0585E 045 R034 070 NE QD 145 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 252S 0596E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180423194055
2018042318 20S FAKIR 002 01 145 19 SATL 030
T000 175S 0541E 050 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 203S 0558E 055 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 228S 0574E 055 R050 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 055 NW QD
T036 244S 0585E 045 R034 070 NE QD 145 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 252S 0596E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.3S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.8S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.4S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.
//
2018042112 81S 519E 25
2018042118 86S 512E 25
2018042200 93S 508E 25
2018042206 101S 506E 25
2018042212 111S 506E 25
2018042218 122S 510E 25
2018042300 133S 515E 25
2018042306 146S 521E 35
2018042312 160S 529E 40
2018042318 175S 541E 50
2018042318 175S 541E 50


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 231500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180423132729
2018042312 20S FAKIR 001 01 145 14 SATL 030
T000 158S 0529E 040 R034 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 185S 0543E 050 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034
115 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 210S 0559E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034
130 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 232S 0573E 040 R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 250S 0588E 035 R034 075 NE QD 140 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 245S 0611E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 20S SIO 180423132729
2018042312 20S FAKIR 001 01 145 14 SATL 030
T000 158S 0529E 040 R034 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 185S 0543E 050 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 210S 0559E 055 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 125 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 232S 0573E 040 R034 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 250S 0588E 035 R034 075 NE QD 140 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 245S 0611E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.5S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
2018042112 81S 519E 25
2018042118 86S 512E 25
2018042200 93S 508E 25
2018042206 101S 506E 25
2018042212 111S 506E 25
2018042218 122S 510E 25
2018042300 133S 515E 25
2018042306 146S 521E 35
2018042312 158S 529E 40


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 19.5S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.2S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 24.3S 58.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.7S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 26.6S 60.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 55.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 61 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED, FORMATIVE EYE
FEATURE PRESENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND A
232355Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
MICROWAVE EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC
20S HAS ENTERED AN AREA OF HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO
T4.0 (55-65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC FAKIR IS
CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN AN ENHANCED STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER, A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOW THE SYSTEMS FORWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 24. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 6 WITH HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU
6, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COMBINED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THAT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND
THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK DIRECTION THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH PREVIOUS OUTLIERS NOW AGREEING WITH THE CONSENSUS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEED AS
EACH MODEL BUILDS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AT A DIFFERENT TIME. THE
SPREAD IN ALONG TRACK SPEED LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.//


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 232100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.3S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.3S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.8S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 24.4S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 25.2S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES SATELLITE FIXES AND A
231642Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING, PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT, WRAPPING INTO
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS ENHANCED BY A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER MADAGASCAR. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 20S IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS TRACKING THROUGH 27-28
CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO
T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. TC FAKIR IS
CURRENTLY ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD IN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SLOWING AFTER
TAU 24 AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK OF
60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VWS, CAUSING A RAPID
WEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 20S IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 24, DIVERGING RAPIDLY WITH NAVGEM AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TURNING
THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z, AND 242100Z.//


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 231500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230252ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230252ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FAKIR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 52.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 52.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.0S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.2S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 25.0S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 24.5S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FAKIR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 231122Z SSMI 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
(20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
MADAGASCAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 28-29C REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
(35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 20S IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 24, THEREFORE THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS
BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 20S WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
TAU 48, TC 20S WILL SLOW, DISSIPATE AND TURN EQUATORWARD AS A STRONG
HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
EQUATORWARD AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THE EQUATORWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 230300).//


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 240018

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/8/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 24/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 55.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 22 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 S0: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 S0: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 S0: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/04/2018 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 25/04/2018 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 25/04/2018 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 26/04/2018 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 26/04/2018 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 27/04/2018 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0

DEPUIS 2000UTC, LE CENTRE DE FAKIR EST VISIBLE SUR LE RADAR DE LA
REUNION PERMETTANT DE CONFIRMER L'ACCELERATION PRISE PAR LE METERORE
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES. APRES UN PASSAGE EN CONFIGURATION
CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE, FAKIR EVOLUE VERS UNE CONFIGURATION
CISAILLEE AVEC UNE CONVECTION QUI FAIBLIT DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU
SYSTEME ET UN CENTRE SE SITUE EN LIMITE SUD DE LA CONVECTION LE PLUS
FORTE.

L'ORIENTATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FAKIR RESTE LA MEME JUSQU'A
MERCREDI MAIS S'EST ACCELERE AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-EST. LA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE CONFIRME UN PASSAGE DE FAKIR
LEGEREMENT A L'EST DE LA REUNION, LAISSANT LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS
ENTRE MAURICE ET LA REUNION. PAR LA SUITE L'ACCELERATION RECENTE
MODIFIE LA CHRONOLOGIE DU VIRAGE A PARTIR DE JEUDI, AVEC UN SYSTEME
QUI S'EVACUE PLUS RAPIDEMENT VERS L'EST TOUJOURS BLOQUE AU SUD PAR
L'ARRIVEE D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE PAR L'OUEST.

EN LIEN AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE, FAKIR RESISTE PLUS LONGUEMENT AU
CISAILLEMENT ET MAINTIENT UN PEU PLUS LONGTEMPS SON INTENSITE
MAXIMALE A PROXIMITE DIRECTE DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE. CEPENDANT,
LE DYNAMISME D'ALTITUDE VA TOUT DE MEME FAIRE SON EFFET ET EN COURS
DE JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, LE MINIMUM POURRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. SE DEPLACANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET TOUJOURS SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME EST
PREVU SE COMBLER A PARTIR DE JEUDI.

LA DEGRADATION DU TEMPS SUR LES ILES DES MASCAREIGNES SE POURSUIT
POUR LA JOURNEE DE MARDI EN TERME DE PLUIE. DE PLUS, LES VENTS
RESTENT PLUS FORTS QUE PREVU INITIALEMENT SUITE A UNE RESISTANCE PLUS
FORTE DU SYSTEME A LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE. LES HABITANTS SONT DONC
INVITES A S'INFORMER REGULIEREMENT A PROPOS DE CE SYSTEME.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231818

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/8/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.3 S / 53.8 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 S0: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 S0: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 S0: 40 NO: 40


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/04/2018 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2018 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 25/04/2018 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/04/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/04/2018 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 26/04/2018 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX=020 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE PRECEDENTE EN BANDE INCURVEE TEND
PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE, AVEC TOUTEFOIS UNE
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE QUI RESTE TRES PROCHE DE LA CONVECTION LA PLUS
PROFONDE. LES IMAGES INFRAROUGE PERMETTENT DE NOTER QUE LA CONVECTION
COMMENCE A FAIBLIR DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU SYSTEME. LA PASSE ASCAT DE
1727UTC NE PERMET PAS UNE LOCALISATION PRECISE DU CENTRE DE FAKIR
MAIS LAISSE SUPPOSER UNE STRUCTURE ASSEZ COMPACTE DES VENTS LES PLUS
FORTS DONT LE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME AUGMENTE UN PEU LEURS
VALEURS. QUOIQU'IL EN SOIT, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PERMET D'ESTIMER DES
VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT ET AINSI DE CLASSER FAKIR EN FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LA TRAJECTOIRE DE FAKIR RESTE SENSIBLEMENT LA MEME AVEC UN
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, ENCADRE PAR UNE DORSALE A
L'EST ET UN PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE A L'OUEST. LES DERNIERES
LOCALISATION DU CENTRE OBTENUES PAR LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES LAISSE
VOIR UN LEGER DECALAGE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE INITIALE, FAISANT PASSER
FAKIR LEGEREMENT A L'EST DE LA REUNION. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI PUIS
JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UNE NOUVELLE
DORSALE PAR L'OUEST. FAKIR POURRAIT ALORS S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD-EST
MARQUANT LE DEBUT DU COMBLEMENT DU SYSTEME. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES
SONT TOUTEFOIS EN MOINS BON ACCORD SUR LE RALENTISSEMENT DE FIN
D'ECHEANCE.

FAKIR CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES,
BENEFICIANT D'UNE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE
SUD. LA FENETRE FAVORABLE POUR SON INTENSIFICATION TOUCHE CEPENDANT A
SA FIN SOUS L'ACTION DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU
TALWEG. UNE POSSIBLE ACCELERATION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT
TOUTEFOIS PERMETTRE A FAKIR DE RESISTER PLUS LONGUEMENT AU
CISAILLEMENT ET AINSI MAINTENIR UN PEU PLUS LONGTEMPS SON INTENSITE
MAXIMALE A PROXIMITE DIRECTE DE LA REUNION ET DE MAURICE. CEPENDANT,
LE DYNAMISME D'ALTITUDE VA TOUT DE MEME FAIRE SON EFFET ET EN COURS
DE JOURNEE DE MERCREDI, DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS
BAROCLINE, LE MINIMUM POURRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. SE DEPLACANT SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES ET TOUJOURS SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME EST
PREVU SE COMBLER A PARTIR DE JEUDI.

FAKIR VA ENTRAINER UNE NETTE DEGRADATION DU TEMPS SUR LES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES DES CETTE NUIT EN TERME DE PLUIE. DE PLUS, LES VENTS
POURRAIENT ETRE PLUS FORTS QUE PREVU INITIALEMENT SUITE A UNE
RESISTANCE PLUS FORTE DU SYSTEME A LA CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE. LES
HABITANTS SONT DONC INVITES A S'INFORMER REGULIEREMENT A PROPOS DE CE
SYSTEME=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 231316

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 2/8/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 23/04/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 52.9 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 17 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 S0: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 S0: 60 NO: 60



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 24/04/2018 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2018 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 25/04/2018 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/04/2018 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 26/04/2018 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 26/04/2018 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX=025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIOREE SOUS LA FORME D'UNE BANDE INCURVEE AVEC DES SOMMETS TRES
FROIDS. LA COURBURE S'EST ACCENTUEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES NOTAMMENT LA SSMI DE 1122Z MONTRENT EGALEMENT CETTE
INTENSIFICATION, AVEC VRAISEMBLABLEMENT UN OEIL EN 37GHZ. AU VU DE
CES DONNEES, LE SYSTEME 08 A ETE BAPTISE FAKIR PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR A 11Z.

FAKIR CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, ENCADRE
PAR UNE DORSALE A L'EST ET UN PROFOND THALWEG D'ALTITUDE A L'OUEST. A
PARTIR DE MERCREDI PUIS JEUDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT RALENTIR AVEC
L'ARRIVEE D'UNE NOUVELLE DORSALE PAR L'OUEST. LE MINIMUM POURRAIT
ALORS S'ORIENTER VERS LE NORD-EST. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN
TRES BON ACCORD SUR LA PREMIERE PARTIE DE CETTE TRAJECTOIRE. LA FIN
D'ECHEANCE EST PLUS INCERTAINE AVEC UN RALENTISSEMENT GERE
DIFFEREMENT PAR LES MODELES.

FAKIR S'EST INTENSIFIE RELATIVEMENT RAPIDEMENT AU COURS DES DERNIERES
HEURES, BENEFICIANT D'UNE EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. SA PETITE TAILLE A EGALEMENT FAVORISEE CE RYTHME. LA
FENETRE FAVORABLE POUR SON INTENSIFICATION TOUCHE CEPENDANT A SA FIN
CE SOIR. LA NUIT PROCHAINE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT
DU THALWEG, VA PROGRESSIVEMENT SE RENFORCER ET ENTRAINER L'INTRUSION
D'AIR PLUS SEC AU SEIN DE LA CIRCULATION INTERNE. DEMAIN, DANS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE PLUS EN PLUS BAROCLINE, LE MINIMUM POURRAIT PERDRE
TEMPORAIREMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. EN FIN DE SEMAINE,
SUR DES EAUX PLUS FRAICHES, TOUJOURS SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE COMBLER.

FAKIR VA ENTRAINER UNE NETTE DEGRADATION DU TEMPS SUR LES ILES DES
MASCAREIGNES DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. LES HABITANTS SONT DONC
INVITES A S'INFORMER RA GULIEREMENT A PROPOS DE CE SYSTEME=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 240018

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 55.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/24 12 UTC: 22.0 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/25 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/04/25 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/04/26 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
60H: 2018/04/26 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
72H: 2018/04/27 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0

SINCE 2000UTC, THE CENTER OF FAKIR IS VISIBLE ON THE RADAR SCOPE OF
THE REUNION ISLAND AND ALLOW TO CONFIRM THE ACCELERATION TAKEN BY THE
METERORE IN THE LAST HOURS. AFTER A PASSAGE INTO CDO CONFIGURATION,
FAKIR EVOLVE TOWARDS A SHEARED CONFIGURATION WITH A CONVECTION THAT
WEAKEN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM AND A CENTER LOCATES IN
LIMIT SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

ORIENTATION OF FAKIR'S TRACK REMAINS SAME UNTIL WEDNESDAY BUT HAS
ACCELERATED WITH RAPID MOVEMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT TRACK
CONFIRMS A PASSAGE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REUNION ISLAND, MAKING THE
STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN MAURITIUS AND THE REUNION ISLAND. THEN THE
RECENT ACCELERATION CHANGES THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE TURNING THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A SYSTEM THAT EVOLVES FASTER EASTWARDS ALWAYS BLOCKED
TO THE SOUTH BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE FROM THE WEST.

IN CONNECTION WITH THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT, FAKIR RESISTS LONGER TO
WINDSHEAR AND MAINTAINS FOR A LONGER ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY CLOSER
DIRECTLY FROM REUNION ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMISM WILL EVEN MAKE EFFECT AND DURING WEDNESDAY, IN AN MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND ALWAYS UNDER A STRONG
NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FILL UP ON
THURSDAY.

THE SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS OF THE MASCAREIGNES CONTINUES FOR THE DAY OF
TUESDAY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL. FURTHER, THE WINDS REMAINS STRONGER
THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF STRONGER STRENGTHENING TO THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. INHABITANTS ARE THUS, INVITED TO FOLLOW
REGULARLY THE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231818

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 53.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/24 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/24 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/04/25 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/04/25 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/04/26 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
72H: 2018/04/26 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5

THE PREVIOUS CLOUD PATTERN IN CURVED BAND TENDS PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS
A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH HOWEVER A LOCATION OF THE CENTER THAT REMAINS
VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INFRARED IMAGES ALLOW TO NOTICE
THAT CONVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
THE 1727UTC ASCAT SWATH DOES NOT ALLOW A PRECISE LOCATION OF FAKIR
CENTER BUT SUGGESTS A COMPACT STRUCTURE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
WHICH ARE INCREASED BY THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK
ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50KT AND FAKIR IS NOW
CLASSIFIED IN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

THE TRACK OF FAKIR REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY THE SAME WITH RAPID MOVEMENT
SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST, BETWEEN A RIDGE AT EAST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AT
WEST. THE LATEST LOCALIZATION OF THE CENTER OBTAINED BY THE MICROWAVE
IMAGES LEAVE A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE INITIAL TRACK, LOCATED THE
FORECASTED TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE REUNION ISLAND. FROM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
NEW RIDGE FROM THE WEST. FAKIR MAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST MARKING
THE BEGINNING OF THE SYSTEM FILLING. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE,
HOWEVER, IN LESS-GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SLOWING DOWN AT LONG RANGE.

FAKIR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN THE LAST HOURS, BENEFITING FROM
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE
FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR ITS INTENSIFICATION HAS BOUND TO END WITH THE
ACTION OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR BEFORE THE TALWEG. A POSSIBLE
ACCELERATION OF THE TRACK COULD ALLOW FAKIR TO RESIST LONGER TO THE
WINDSHEAR AND THUS TO MAINTAIN FOR A LONGER ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY
CLOSE DIRECTLY FROM THE REUNION ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. HOWEVER, UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMISM WILL EVEN MAKE EFFECT AND DURING WEDNESDAY, IN AN MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND ALWAYS UNDER A STRONG
NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FILL UP ON
THURSDAY.

FAKIR IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MASCARENE ISLANDS OF TONIGHT IN THE TERM OF
RAINFALL. FURTHERMORE, THE WINDS COULD BE STRONGER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF STRONGER STRENGTHENING TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS. INHABITANTS ARE THUS, INVITED TO FOLLOW REGULARLY THE
UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 231316

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR)

2.A POSITION 2018/04/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 310 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/04/24 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/04/24 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/04/25 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/04/25 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/04/26 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW
72H: 2018/04/26 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0+

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED WITH A CURVED BAND
WITH VERY COLD SUMMITS. CURVATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY INCREASED CLOSE
TO THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA AS IN 1122Z SSMI CONFIRM ALSO THE
DEEPENING, WITH APPARENTLY AN EYE IN 37GHZ. GIVEN THAT DATA, SYSTEM
WAS NAMED FAKIR BY MALAGASY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 11Z.

FAKIR KEEPS ON MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS, BETWEEN A RIDGE
AT EAST AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AT WEST. FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW RIDGE
FROM THE WEST. THE LOW MAY THEN MOVE NORTH-EASTWARD. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN A VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST PART OF THIS
SCENARIO. UNCERTAINTY IS MORE IMPORTANT AT LONG RANGE WITH
DIFFERENCES IN THE SLOWING DOWN AMONG THE GUIDANCE.

FAKIR INTENSIFIED RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST HOURS, BENEFITING FROM
AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ITS SMALL SIZE
ALSO HELPED IN THIS RHYTHM. HOWEVER THE CONDUCIVE PERIOD FOR
DEEPENING IS COMING TO AN END TONIGHT. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
DYNAMISM FROM THE WEST, THE SHEAR WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AND
INDUCE A DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE INNER CORE. TOMORROW, IN A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW MAY LOOSE TEMPORARILY SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, OVER COOLER WATER, STILL
UNDERGOING A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER CONSTRAINT, THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO FILL UP.

FAKIR IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, IN THE NEXT HOURS.
INHABITANTS ARE THUS, INVITED TO FOLLOW REGULARLY THE UPDATES ON THIS
SYSTEM.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 240002
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 24/04/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 24/04/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 55.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 22 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
22.0 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/25 AT 00 UTC:
24.4 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 231803
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/04/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 53.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 18 UTC:
22.6 S / 56.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 231211
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 23/04/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 002/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 23/04/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAKIR) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 52.9 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/04/24 AT 12 UTC:
21.5 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=