Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELIAKIM-18
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 201500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 180320132328
2018032012 14S ELIAKIM 023 02 150 13 SATL 025
T000 287S 0538E 045 R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 314S 0548E 045 R034 245 NE QD 285 SE QD 185 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 28.7S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.4S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS


Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 14S SIO 180320132328
2018032012 14S ELIAKIM 023 02 150 13 SATL 025
T000 287S 0538E 045 R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 314S 0548E 045 R034 245 NE QD 285 SE QD 185 SW QD 105 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 28.7S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.4S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
1418031206 117S 583E 20
1418031212 119S 577E 20
1418031218 125S 576E 20
1418031300 126S 581E 20
1418031306 122S 575E 25
1418031312 121S 572E 25
1418031318 121S 569E 25
1418031400 125S 564E 30
1418031406 129S 560E 30
1418031412 134S 556E 30
1418031418 139S 551E 30
1418031500 144S 545E 35
1418031506 149S 539E 45
1418031512 152S 530E 50
1418031512 152S 530E 50
1418031518 157S 519E 50
1418031518 157S 519E 50
1418031600 158S 512E 55
1418031600 158S 512E 55
1418031606 158S 505E 55
1418031606 158S 505E 55
1418031612 158S 500E 60
1418031618 158S 498E 55
1418031618 158S 498E 55
1418031700 158S 496E 45
1418031706 159S 494E 45
1418031712 165S 492E 40
1418031718 173S 495E 35
1418031800 184S 495E 40
1418031806 192S 495E 45
1418031812 201S 495E 45
1418031818 212S 495E 45
1418031900 222S 497E 45
1418031906 233S 502E 45
1418031912 246S 508E 45
1418031918 254S 515E 45
1418032000 263S 521E 45
1418032006 276S 530E 45
1418032012 287S 538E 45


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 201500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 28.7S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.4S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED AS
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL


Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (ELIAKIM) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 28.7S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 31.4S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 54.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (ELIAKIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM
SOUTH OF ST. DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND ELONGATED AS
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND UNRAVELING CONDITION OF THE LLC IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE
201146Z GPM 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED
ON RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS. TC
ELIAKIM HAS BEGUN RAPID ETT AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG GALE-
FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S
(MARCUS) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 201206
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-ELIAKIM) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 53.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 450 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS LOCALLY IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/21 AT 00 UTC:
31.8 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/21 AT 12 UTC:
33.9 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY THE RSMC ON THE SYSTEM EX-ELIAKIM, WHICH WILL
BE MONITORED BY FMEE FQIO20 BULLETINS.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200607
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-ELIAKIM) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.2 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 175 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 320 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 18 UTC:
30.3 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/21 AT 06 UTC:
32.9 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 200016

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 20/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 52.0 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :111 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SO: 430 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 300 NO: 200



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 21/03/2018 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 22/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 22/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.0 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A ELIAKIM FAIBLIT DEPUIS QUELQUES
HEURES MAIS EST PLUS PROCHE DU CENTRE. ELLE RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT
LOCALISEE DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK PEUT ETRE MAINTENANT ESTIMEE A
3.0, AVEC TOUJOURS DES VENTS ATTEIGNANT LES 45KT.

IL N'Y A PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE LA TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE ELIAKIM, AVEC UN BON ACCORD DE L'ENSEMBLE DES MODELES
NUMERIQUES DISPONIBLES. LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR LE CMRS SE POURSUIT
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST SUR LA BORDURE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI A L'APPROCHE DU 35 SUD, ELIAKIM
S'ORIENTERA VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG AU SEIN DU FLUX
PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

EN TERME D'INTENSITE, LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EST BIEN PRESENT
ET EMPECHE UNE REELLE INTENSIFICATION. EN FIN DE JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME
ENTAMERA SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC DES
EAUX SOUS-JACENTES PLUS FROIDES AU SUD DE 27S ET UNE ANOMALIE
D'ALTITUDE. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE MINIMUM DEVRAIT SE FONDRE
PROGRESSIVEMENT AU FLUX PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PUIS QUITTER
NOTRE ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 200016

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 52.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 560 SW: 430 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 300 NW: 200



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.8 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 36.4 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/22 12 UTC: 40.0 S / 60.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ELIAKIM WEAKEN FOR A FEW
HOURS BUT IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. IT REMAINS LOCALLY LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST SECTOR. IN THIS SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN, DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN
BE NOW ESTIMATED AT 3.0 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 45KT.

THERE IS NO CHANGE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
ELIAKIM, WITH A GOOD AGREEMENT OF ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS. THE
RSMC TRACK CONTINUES SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY ON APPROACH TO 35 SOUTH,
ELIAKIM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE
DISTURBED MID LATITUDES FLOW.

IN TERM OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHWEST WIND-SHEAR IS WELL PRESENT AND
PREVENTS A REAL INTENSIFICATION. BY THE END OF THE DAY, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL PHASE BY INTERACTING WITH COLDER
UNDERLYING WATERS SOUTH OF 27S AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER ANOMALY.
FROM THURSDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEAR WITHIN
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND LEAVE OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 200007
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 20/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 20/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 52.0 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 12 UTC:
29.8 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/21 AT 00 UTC:
32.4 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191853

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 19/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.2 S / 51.3 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 190



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 22/03/2018 06 UTC: 38.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
72H: 22/03/2018 18 UTC: 41.9 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE ASSOCIEE A
ELIAKIM A REPRIS DE LA VIGUEUR, PRINCIPALEMENT DANS LE SUD-OUEST. LE
CENTRE RESTANT ELOIGNE DE PLUS 0.5 DEGRE DE CETTE ACTIVITE
CONVECTIVE, ELIAKIM PRESENTE UNE CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE
DONT L'ANALYSE DVORAK NE PEUT DEPASSER 2.5 AVEC TOUTEFOIS DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX ATTEIGNANT LES 45KT ET UNE CIRCULATION QUI RESTE ASSEZ
LARGE.

AIDE PAR UN BON ACCORD ENTRE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES, LA TRAJECTOIRE
PREVUE PAR LE CMRS SE POURSUIT AVEC UNE TRES BONNE CONFIANCE VERS LE
SUD-SUD-EST SUR LA BORDURE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI A L'APPROCHE DU 35 SUD, ELIAKIM
S'ORIENTERA VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG AU SEIN DU FLUX
PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EST EN HAUSSE ET EMPECHE UN REEL REGAIN
D'INTENSITE BIEN QUE LA CONVECTION AIT REPRIS DE LA VIGUEUR DANS LE
SECTEUR SUD-OUEST. DANS LES 24 HEURES, LE SYSTEME AURA ENTAME SA
PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC DES EAUX
SOUS-JACENTES PLUS FROIDES AU SUD DE 27S ET UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE MINIMUM DEVRAIT SE FONDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU
FLUX PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ET QUITTER NOTRE ZONE DE
RESPONSABILITE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191853

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 51.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 190



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 31.2 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 35.5 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/22 06 UTC: 38.3 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/22 18 UTC: 41.9 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
ELIAKIM INTENSIFIED, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE CENTER REMAINS FAR
FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MORE THAN 0.5 DEGREE, SO ELIAKIM
PRESENTS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN NOT
EXCEED 2.5 WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS REACHING 45KT AND A WIDE
CIRCULATION.

ASSISTED BY A GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT NUMERICAL MODELS,
THE RSMC'S TRACK CONTINUES, WITH VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE,
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE. FROM WEDNESDAY ON APPROACH TO 35 SOUTH, ELIAKIM WILL TRACK
MORE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE DISTURBED MID
LATITUDES FLOW.

THE NORTHWEST WIND-SHEAR IS INCREASING AND PREVENTS FROM ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS TAKEN OVER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SECTOR. WITHIN 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION WITH COOLER UNDERNEATH WATERS SOUTH OF 27S AND
THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER ANOMALY. FROM THURSDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEAR WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND
LEAVE OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191805
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.2 S / 51.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT WITHIN A 180 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 06 UTC:
28.1 S / 52.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 18 UTC:
31.2 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 191228

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 19/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 50.8 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 190



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/03/2018 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 22/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=2.5+ CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'ELIAKIM A
PEU EVOLUE. L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE PRA SENTE DANS LE
QUADRANT SUD-OUEST, S'EST NEANMOINS ELOIGNEE DU CENTRE. CETTE
STRUCTURE CISAILLEE EST DUE A UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-OUEST ANALYSEE
PAR LE CIMSS VERS 09Z A 20/25KT. L'INTENSITE A ETE RECALEE A 45KT
APRES LA PRISE EN COMPTE DE DONNEES COMPLEMENTAIRES DES PASSES ASCAT
DE CE MATIN. LA POSITION DU CENTRE EST QUANT A ELLE ASSEZ INCERTAINE
EN RAISON DU MANQUE DE DONNEES MICRO-ONDES.

ELIAKIM POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST PUIS SUD-SUD-EST SUR
LA BORDURE SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE AVEC UNE TRES BONNE CONFIANCE
(EXCELLENT ACCORD DES MODELES NUMERIQUES). EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG AU
SEIN DU FLUX PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ELIAKIM BENEFICIE ENCORE D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE AVEC UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. CEPENDANT,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE DEVRAIT EMPECHER UN REEL
REGAIN D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC DES EAUX
SOUS-JACENTES PLUS FROIDES AU SUD DE 27S ET UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE MINIMUM DEVRAIT SE FONDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU
SEIN D'UNE LARGE DEPRESSION ET QUITTER NOTRE ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 191228

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 50.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 190



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 36.5 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/22 12 UTC: 40.2 S / 60.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5+ CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN BARELY EVOLVED. DEEP CONVECTION
STILL LOCATED IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, BUT IS NOW FURTHER FROM
THE CENTER. THIS SHEARED STRUCTURE IS THE CONSEQUENCE OF AN UPPER
CONSTRAINT ANALYSED BY CIMSS AT 09Z AROUND 20/25KT. INTENSITY WAS
UPGRADED TO 45KT BECAUSE OF COMPLEMENTARY DATA FROM THIS MORNING
ASCAT SWATHS. REGARDING THE CURRENT POSITION, IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE LACK OF RELIABLE DATA (MICROWAVE).

ELIAKIM CONTINUES ITS SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK
ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. IT IS FORECAST
TO KEEP THIS COURSE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE). LATER THIS WEEK, THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE
SOUTH-EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE DISTURBED MID
LATITUDES FLOW.

THE SYSTEM STILL BENEFITS FOR THE MOMENT OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
PREVENT FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING. TOMORROW, ELIAKIM SHOULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION WITH COOLER UNDERNEATH WATERS SOUTH OF
27S AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER ANOMALY. FROM THURSDAY, THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEAR WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND LEAVE OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 191215
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 50.8 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 500 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 00 UTC:
26.8 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 12 UTC:
29.9 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190635

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 19/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 49.8 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 190



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/03/2018 06 UTC: 38.7 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:



2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE S'EST CONCENTREE
PRINCIPALEMENT AU SUD-OUEST DU CENTRE. AILLEURS, NOTAMMENT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE SONT RECHAUFFES SANS DOUTE EN
LIEN AVEC L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST
(20/25KT A 03Z SELON LE CIMSS). LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (WINDSAT
0257Z) ET LA PASSE ASCAT DE CE MATIN, MONTRENT QUE LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE RESTE TOUJOURS LARGE ET N'A PAS BENEFICIE DU REGAIN DE
CONVECTION.

ELIAKIM A COMMENCE A S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST SUR LA BORDURE
SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CETTE TRAJECTOIRE EST
PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE AVEC UNE TRES BONNE CONFIANCE (EXCELLENT ACCORD
DES MODELES NUMERIQUES). EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
S'ORIENTER VERS LE SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG AU SEIN DU FLUX
PERTURBE DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ELIAKIM BENEFICIE ENCORE D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE AVEC UN CANAL
D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. CEPENDANT,
LE CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST EN HAUSSE DEVRAIT EMPECHER UN REEL
REGAIN D'INTENSITE. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC DES EAUX
SOUS-JACENTES PLUS FROIDES AU SUD DE 27S ET UNE ANOMALIE D'ALTITUDE.
A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LE MINIMUM DEVRAIT SE FONDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT AU
SEIN D'UNE LARGE DEPRESSION ET QUITTER NOTRE ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190635

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 49.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE
DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 190



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 35.8 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/22 06 UTC: 38.7 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED CONCENTRATED
MAINLY AT THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE CENTER. ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CLOUDS TOPS GOT WARMER LIKELY DUE TO THE
INCREASE OF THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (20-25KT ACCORDING
TO CIMSS AT 03Z). MICROWAVE IMAEGRY (WINDSAT 0257Z) AND THIS MORNING
ASCAT SWATH, SHOW STILL A BROAD INNER CORE, THAT DID NOT BENEFIT FROM
THE CONVECTIVE BURST.

ELIAKIM STARTED TO BEND SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. IT IS FORECAST TO KEEP THIS COURSE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE).
LATER THIS WEEK, THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK MORE SOUTH-EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN THE DISTURBED MID LATITUDES FLOW.

THE SYSTEM STILL BENEFITS FOR THE MOMENT OF A GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO
PREVENT FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION WITH COOLER UNDERNEATH
WATERS SOUTH OF 27S AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER ANOMALY. FROM
THURSDAY, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DISAPPEAR WITHIN A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND LEAVE OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 190615
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 49.8 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 350 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 18 UTC:
25.6 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 06 UTC:
28.3 S / 52.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 190119

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 19/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 49.5 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SO: 150 NO: 110



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/03/2018 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 22/03/2018 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 23/03/2018 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
RENFORCA E, PROFITANT DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DES COTES MALGACHE, EN
COMMENCE A S'ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVEE. LES DERNIERES DONNA ES
ASCAT DE 1854Z PERMETTENT DE CONFIRMER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME AVEC
DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

ELIAKIM EST PREVU SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD PUIS DU
SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVANT D'INTEGRER LE COURANT PERTURBE DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE POUR LE MOMENT D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA COTE
DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. MAIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG ENCOURS DE JOURNA E DE LUNDI DEVRAIT
LIMITER CETTE INTENSIFICATION.

A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE LORS
DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 190119

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 150 NW: 110



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.7 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 37.0 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/23 00 UTC: 42.9 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY
STRENGTHENED, AS THE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST BECOME GREATER, AND
BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE. LAST ASCAT DATA AT
1854Z CONFIRM THE INTENSITY OF ELIAKIM WITH WINDS OF 40KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENNERALLY SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.

THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FOR THE MOMENT OF A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. AS IT GETS FARER FROM THE
COAST, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. BUT THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY LIMIT THIS
INTENSIFICATION.

FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 182356

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2018 18 UTC: 40.1 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
RENFORCA E, PROFITANT DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DES COTES MALGACHE, EN
COMMENCE A S'ORGANISER EN BANDE INCURVEE. LES DERNIERES DONNA ES
ASCAT DE 1854Z PERMETTENT DE CONFIRMER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME AVEC
DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

ELIAKIM EST PREVU SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD PUIS DU
SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVANT D'INTEGRER LE COURANT PERTURBE DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE POUR LE MOMENT D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA COTE
DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. MAIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG ENCOURS DE JOURNA E DE LUNDI DEVRAIT
LIMITER CETTE INTENSIFICATION.

A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE LORS
DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 182356

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/22 18 UTC: 40.1 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY
STRENGTHENED, AS THE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST BECOME GREATER, AND
BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE. LAST ASCAT DATA AT
1854Z CONFIRM THE INTENSITY OF ELIAKIM WITH WINDS OF 40KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENNERALLY SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.

THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FOR THE MOMENT OF A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. AS IT GETS FARER FROM THE
COAST, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. BUT THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY LIMIT THIS
INTENSIFICATION.

FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 190022
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 19/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 49.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER,
EXTENDING UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 12 UTC:
24.4 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/20 AT 00 UTC:
26.7 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181831

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 18/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2018 18 UTC: 40.1 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES LA CONVECTION S'EST NETTEMENT
RENFORCA E, PROFITANT DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DES COTES MALGACHE, EN
COMMENCE A S'ORGANISER NE BANDE INCURVEE.

ELIAKIM EST PREVU SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD PUIS DU
SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVANT D'INTEGRER LE COURANT PERTURBE DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE POUR LE MOMENT D'UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE
POLAIRE A L'AVANT DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE. L'ELOIGNEMENT DE LA COTE
DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES. MAIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE
NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG ENCOURS DE JOURNA E DE LUNDI DEVRAIT
LIMITER CETTE INTENSIFICATION.

A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE LORS
DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181831

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.6 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.2 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 35.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/22 18 UTC: 40.1 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY
STRENGTHENED, AS THE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST BECOME GREATER, AND
BEGIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE.

ELIAKIM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENNERALLY SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.

THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FOR THE MOMENT OF A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. AS IT GETS FARER FROM THE
COAST, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT HOURS. BUT THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY LIMITE THIS INTENSIFICATION.

FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 181829
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.2 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.2 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 18 UTC:
25.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 181219

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.1 S / 49.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SO: 220 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 150 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 19/03/2018 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/03/2018 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2018 12 UTC: 39.5 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE


2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES LAISSENT APPARAITRE LA CIRCULATION DE
BASSES COUCHES PERMETTANT D'ESTIMER QUE L'ELOIGNEMENT DES COTES EST
ENCORE TIMIDE AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES. LA CONVECTION PEINE ALORS A SE REMETTRE EN PLACE, GENEE PAR
LE RELIEF DE LA COTE MALGACHE ET L'ARRIVEE PAR LE NORD-OUEST D'AIR
PLUS SEC EN PROVENANCE DES HAUTS PLATEAUX. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK SERAIT
TRES LIMITATIVE ET NE PERMETTRAIT PAS UNE REPRESENTATION CORRECTE DE
L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME, DONT LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0625UTC PERMET
D'ESTIMER DES VENTS MAXIMAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU
SYSTEME.

PAS DE MODIFICATION EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE POUR ELIAKIM
SI CE N'EST UN DEPLACEMENT UN PEU PLUS LENT JUSQU'EN COURS DE JOURNEE
DE LUNDI : LE SYSTEME VA DONC SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD PUIS DU SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVANT D'INTEGRER LE COURANT PERTURBE
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ENTRE TERME D'INTENSITE ET DE STRUCTURE, ELIAKIM RESTE TRES AFFAIBLI
DE SON PASSAGE LE LONG DES COTES MALGACHES. LES CONDITIONS ENCORE
FAVORABLES EN TERME DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET DE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE NE PERMETTRONT QU'UNE LEGERE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME A
LA FAVEUR DE SON ELOIGNEMENT DES COTES EN COURS DE NUIT DE DIMANCHE A
LUNDI. PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST
A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DEVRAIT REFERMER LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLES POUR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT
ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE
GRANDISSANTE LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 181219

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :93 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 330 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 28.8 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 31.8 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.5 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/22 12 UTC: 39.5 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES ALLOW TO NOTICE THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX AND TO
ESTIMATE THAT THE PROGRESSIVE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST IS STILL QUIET
WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
INTENSIFYING DIFFICULTLY, LIMITED BY THE RELIEF AND THE AIR DRY
ARRIVAL COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND FROM THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS WOULD BE VERY LIMITATIVE AND WOULD NOT PERMIT A
CORRECT REPRESENTATION OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH THE
0625UTC ASCAT SWATH ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40KT IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.

NO MODIFICATION IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST FOR ELIAKIM, EXCEPT A SLOW
MOTION UNTIL MONDAY : THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH-EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS VERY IMPACTED
BY ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE COASTS OF MADAGASCAR. THE CONDITIONS
STILL FAVORABLE IN THE TERM OF WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WEAK INTENSIFICATION IN FAVOR OF ITS TRACK OVER
SEA DURING THE NIGHT FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. THEN THE STRENGTHENING OF
A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL
DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE
SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 181209
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 49.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN A 370 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.0 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 12 UTC:
23.8 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180620

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.5 S / 49.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 410 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/03/2018 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2018 06 UTC: 38.0 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 23/03/2018 06 UTC: 44.8 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
MALGRE UN REGAIN DU A SON ELOIGNEMENT PROGRESSIF DE LA COTE, LA
SIGNATURE CONVECTIVE RESTE ENCORE TRES DEGRADEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES ET UNE ANALYSE DVORAK NE PERMET PAS ENCORE UNE
REPRESENTATION CORRECTE DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME. LA PASSE
MICRO-ONDE DE 0322UTC PERMET D'ESTIMER UN DEBUT DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DES
COTES BIEN QUE LES OBSERVATIONS DE VENT DE TOAMASINA CONCERVENT UNE
ORIENTATION NORD POUVANT ETRE EN LIEN AVEC DES EFFETS COMPLEXES
D'INTERACTION AVEC LE RELIEF ET LA CONVECTION PRESENTS DANS LA PARTIE
OUEST DU SYSTEME. LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DE 0543UTC VALIDE BIEN
CETTE LOCALISATION EN MER AVEC UNE COMPOSANTE EST DES VENTS VERS
20S/49.3E.

LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE POUR LA PREVISION DE LA TRAJECTOIRE D'ELIAKIM
RESTE LA MEME : LE SYSTEME VA SE DEPLACER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD PUIS DU SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST D'UNE
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVANT D'INTEGRER LE COURANT PERTURBE
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

ENTRE TERME D'INTENSITE ET DE STRUCTURE, ELIAKIM RESTE TRES AFFAIBLI
DE SON PASSAGE SUR TERRE ET DE SA TRAJECTOIRE ACTUELLE LE LONG DES
COTES. LES CONDITIONS ENCORE FAVORABLES EN TERME DE CISAILLEMENT DE
VENT ET DE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE NE PERMETTRONT QU'UNE LEGERE
INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME A LA FAVEUR DE SON ELOINGNEMENT DES COTES
EN COURS DE CE DIMANCHE. CE SOIR PUIS LUNDI, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN TALWEG DEVRAIT
REFERMER LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR LE SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE LORS
DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LAITTUDES PLUS SUD.

LES FORTES PLUIES SE MAINTIENNENT SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR DANS
UN RAYON DE 200KM DU CENTRE D'ELIAKIM.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180620

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 49.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 410 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/22 06 UTC: 38.0 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/23 06 UTC: 44.8 S / 65.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DESPITE ITS PROGRESSIVE DISTANCE FROM THE COAST, THE CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE IS STILL VERY DEGRADED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND A DVORAK
ANALYSIS STILL DOES NOT PERMIT A CORRECT REPRESENTATION OF THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. 0322UTC MICROWAVE DATA ALLOW TO SAY THAT
ELIAKIM TRACK OVER SEA, ALTHOUGH TOAMASINA WIND OBSERVATIONS RELATE
TO A NORTHERN ORIENTATION THAT CAN BE RELATED TO COMPLEX EFFECTS OF
INTERACTION WITH THE RELIEF AND CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0543UTC ASCAT SWATH VALID WELL THIS LOCATION
OVER SEA WITH A WIND OF EAST NEAR 20S/49.3E

THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY FOR THE ELAIKIM'S TRACK PREDICTION REMAINS THE
SAME: THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-EASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE
ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.

FOR INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS VERY IMPACTED
BY ITS PASSAGE ON LAND AND ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR. THE CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE IN THE TERM OF WIND SHEAR
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WEAK INTENSIFICATION
IN FAVOR OF ITS TRACK OVER SEA DURING THIS SUNDAY. SUNDAY EVENING AND
THEN MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING
BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE DURING ITS SOUTHERN TRACK.

HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE STILL ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN A
200KM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER OF ELIAKIM.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 180605
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5 S / 49.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 18 UTC:
21.4 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
23.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 180110

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 49.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/03/2018 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2018 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 22/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 23/03/2018 00 UTC: 43.1 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
ELIAKIM A ETE SUIVI CETTE NUIT GRACE AUX OBSERVATIONS DE L'ILE
SAINTE-MARIE ET DE TAMATAVE.LE VENT FAIBLE A TAMATAVE QUI A TOURNE DU
SECTEUR SUD AU SECTEUR NORD EN CETTE FIN DE NUIT AVEC UNE PRESSION
MER CORRIGEE DE L'ORDRE DE 995 HPA LAISSE A PENSER QUE LE CENTRE EST
PASSE SUR LA VILLE. DEPUIS SON RETOUR SUR LA COTE EN FIN DE JOURNEE
D'HIER, ELIAKIM SEMBLE POUR L'INSTANT CONTINUER DE LONGER LE LITTORAL
EST MALGACHE. COMPTE TENU DE LA MAUVAISE DEFINITION DU CENTRE, LA
POSITION RESTE MALGRE TOUT ASSEZ INCERTAINE (CONFIANCE MOYENNE).

PAS DE CHANGEMENT DANS L'ESTIMATION DE L'INTENSITE PUISQUE LES
OBSERVATIONS DE PRESSIONS N'INDIQUENT PAS DE TENDANCE AU COMBLEMENT.
UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION PROFONDE, FORMEE PEU AVANT 18TU, S'ENROULE A
0.3AO SUR UNE SPIRALE LOG10 SUR LA MOITIE SUD DE LA CIRCULATION. LA
SIGNATURE SATELLITE RESTE ENCORE TRES DEGRADEE SUITE A L'INTERACTION
AVEC LES TERRES ET N'EST PAS REPRESENTATIVE DE L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT FONDAMENTAL DANS LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE DE LA
PREVISION: ELIALIM SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD PUIS DU
SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST PUIS SUD-OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AVANT D'INTEGRER LE COURANT PERTURBE DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

LA STRUCTURE D'ELIAKIM EST TRES DEGRADEE SUITE AU PASSAGE SUR TERRE.
DE PLUS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER TROP PRES DE LA COTE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 18H POUR PROFITER SENSIBLEMENT DES CONDITIONS ENCORE
FAVORABLES EN TERME DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET DE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. CE SOIR PUIS LUNDI, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE
D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DEVRAIT REFERMER LA
FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR LE SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MARDI,
ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE
INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

LES FORTES PLUIES CONTINUENT D'ETRE LE FACTEUR PREOCCUPANT POUR LES
CONSEQUENCES SUR MADAGASCAR.ELLES SE MAINTIENNENT SUR LE NORD-OUEST
DE LA GRANDE ILE EN LIEN AVEC LE FLUX DE MOUSSON ET CONTINUENT DE SE
PROPAGER VERS LE SUD, AU SUD DU CENTRE, LE LONG DE LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 180110

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 49.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.6 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 36.7 S / 58.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/23 00 UTC: 43.1 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELIAKIM HAS BEEN TRACKED TONIGHT WITH SURFACE OBS FROM SAINTE-MARIE
AND TAMATAVE. AT THIS LOCATION, LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVAILED MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS. AT
00Z, CORRECTED FROM BAROMETRIC TIDE PRESSURE IS NEAR 995 HPA,
SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER HAS PASSED OVER THE CITY. SINCE THE SYSTEM
IS BACK OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINES YESTERDAY EVENING, IT SEEMS THAT
IT MOVES OVER THE SHORELINE ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK. GIVEN THE
ILL-DEFINED CENTER, POSITION CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIR.

THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS THE SAME AS SURFACE PRESSURE OBS DO
NOT SHOW ANY FILL-UP TENDENCY. A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION, FORMED JUST
BEFORE 18Z, WRAPPED NOW 0.3AO ON LOG10 SPIRAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE
IS STILL NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE GENERAL REASONING . ELIAKIM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN AND THEN SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BEFORE ENTERING WITHIN THE MID-LAT WESTERLIES LATER THIS WEEK.

THE STRUCTURE OF ELIAKIM HAS BEEN HIGHLY IMPACTED BY LAND
INTERACTION. MOREOVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHORE OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE FROM THE STILL
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS. SUNDAY EVENING
AND THEN MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING
BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE STILL THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM ELIAKIM. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALLS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MONSOON FLOW AND ALONG THE CENTRAL EAST COAST
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 180030
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 18/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 49.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 12 UTC:
20.5 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
22.3 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171912

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 49.7 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 18/03/2018 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/03/2018 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
ELIALIM A ETE LOCALISEE GRACE AUX OBSERVATIONS DE SAINTE-MARIE ET DE
TAMATAVE AINSI QUE LES DONNEES D'UNE BOUEE PRESENTE AU SUD DE LA BAIE
D'ANTONGIL. LA TRAJECTOIRE DE LA JOURNEE A ETE REVUE LEGEREMENT PLUS
A L'EST QUE PRECEDEMMENT ESTIMEE.
ELIAKIM ACCELERE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE ORIENTEE AU SUD MAINTENANT ET
LES OBSERVATIONS DISPONIBLES MONTRENT QUE LE SYSTEME SE TROUVE
QUASIMENT SUR LE TRAIT DE COTE ET COMMENCE A S'ELOIGNER DE L'ILE
SAINTE-MARIE. L'APPELATION DEPRESSION SUR TERRE EST ABANDONNEE ET LA
FAUCHEE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE 1735Z MONTRE DES VENTS A 30-35 KT ASSEZ
LOIN DU CENTRE LAISSANT SUGGERER QUE DU COUP DE VENT PLUS ETABLI
EXISTE PLUS PRES DU CENTRE. ELIAKIM EST A NOUVEAU CONSIDERE COMME UNE
TEMPETE TROPICALE.

LA RELOCALISATION PLUS EST A DECALE QUELQUE PEU LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE
VERS L'EST SUR LES DEUX PREMIERS JOURS SANS CHANGER FONDAMENTALEMENT
LA PHILOSOPHIE GENERALE.ELIALIM SE DEPLACE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD PUIS DU SUD-EST LE LONG DE LA FACADE OUEST D'UNE DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PRESENTE A L'EST.

LA STRUCTURE D'ELIAKIM EST TRES DEGRADEE SUITE AU PASSAGE SUR TERRE.
DE PLUS, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER TROP PRES DE LA COTE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H POUR PROFITER SENSIBLEMENT DES CONDITIONS ENCORE
FAVORABLES EN TERME DE CISAILLEMENT DE VENT ET DE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE. DIMANCHE SOIR PUIS LUNDI, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DEVRAIT
REFERMER LA FENETRE DE CONDITIONS FAVORABLES POUR LE SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

LES FORTES PLUIES CONTINUENT D'ETRE LE FACTEUR PREOCCUPANT POUR LES
CONSEQUENCES SUR MADAGASCAR.ELLES SE MAINTIENNENT SUR LE NORD-OUEST
DE LA GRANDE ILE ET CONTINUENT DE SE PROPAGER VERS LE SUD, AU SUD DU
CENTRE, LE LONG DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171912

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 49.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 460 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.6 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 27.9 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 36.4 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/22 18 UTC: 42.2 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELIAKIM HAS BEEN TRACKED ACCORDING TO SURFACE OBS SAINTE-MARIE
ISLAND, TAMATAVE ALONG WITH A BUOY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ANTONGIL BAY. ACCORDINGLY TO ALL THIS DATA, THE OBSERVED TRACK TODAY
HAS BEEN SHIFT EASTWARDS.
ELIAKIM HAS FASTEN ALONG A SOUTHWARDS TRACK AND THE SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED NOW OVER THE COASTLINES OF EAST MADAGASCAR, SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST
OF THE SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND. PARTIAL ASCAT DATA OF 1735Z SHOW 30-35 KT
WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL
PRESENT.THEREFORE ELIAKIM IS CONSIDERED AGAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE RELOCATION HAS SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS
FURTHER EAST BUT THE GENERAL REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. ELIAKIM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE.

THE STRUCTURE OF ELIAKIM HAS BEEN HIGHLY IMPACTED BY LAND
INTERACTION. MOREOVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO
THE SHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE FROM THE STILL
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN
MONDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD WILL DEFINITIVELY END THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AROUND THE SYSTEM. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND, ELIAKIM SHOULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

HEAVY RAINFALLS ARE STILL THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM ELIAKIM. THIS HEAVY
RAINFALLS ARE CURRENTLY SPREADING OVER NORTH-WESTERN MADAGASCAR AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL EAST COAST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 171831
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 49.7 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 06 UTC:
19.7 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 18 UTC:
21.6 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER EAST. IT IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
MOVE BACK OVER WATERS SO THE SYSTEM IS RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
STORM.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 171306

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/7/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.5 S / 49.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 410 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 18/03/2018 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 18/03/2018 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2018 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/03/2018 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/03/2018 12 UTC: 40.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ELIAKIM S'EST LENTEMENT ENFONCE DANS
LES TERRES EN DIRECTION DU SUD, QUASIMENT PARRALELEMENT A LA COTE.
LA CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE S'EST NETTEMENT ATTENUEE, MAIS DES
BANDES PERIPHERIQUES RESTENT BIEN ACTIVES SUR TERRE, ET UNE ACTIVITE
ORAGEUSE MARQUEE RESTE PRESENTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD,
PRINCIPALEMENT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL.

ELIAKIM DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND INCERTAINES LES
POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE DISPARITION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. LA RECONSTITUTION D'UNE DORSALE DANS
LE SUD-EST PUIS DANS L'EST DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE PUIS UNE
ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST LA NUIT PROCHAINE ET DEMAIN

DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER. ENSUITE, SA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER GRADUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-EST LUNDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
AU SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE
SCENARIO, MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR
MER RESTENT SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

DIMANCHE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT RESSORTIR SUR MER ET BENEFICIER DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE, PUIS LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU
THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE RE-INTENSIFICATION.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

ELIAKIM APPORTE DE FORTES PLUIES SUR UNE LARGE MOITIE NORD DE
MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 171306

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 49.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 410 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/18 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.8 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.2 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.8 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/22 12 UTC: 40.5 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELIAKIM SLOWLY MOVED INLAND SOUTHWARDS QUITE
IN PARALLEL TO THE COAST.
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS ATTENUATING, BUT PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS
REMAINS STRONG OVER LAND, AND THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER
SEAS WITHIN NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEN PART OF
THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL

ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, SO THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE RECONSTITUTION OF A RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST THEN IN
THE EAST SHOULD DRIVE A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN NEXT NIGHT END
TOMORROW.

SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA. ITS TRACK
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF
THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY EVENING, ELIAKIM SHOULD CAME BACK OVER SEA, AND BENEFITE IN A
FIRST TIME OF GOOD POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVENGENCE, THEN THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A
GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

ELIAKIM BRINGS IMPORTANT RAINFALL OVER A LARGE NORTHERN HALF OF
MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 171221
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5 S / 49.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 12 UTC:
20.4 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170640

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/7/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.7 S / 49.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :NEANT

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 420 SO: 0 NO: 460
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/03/2018 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 18/03/2018 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/03/2018 06 UTC: 37.3 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ELIAKIM S'EST LENTEMENT ENFONCE DANS
LES TERRES. LA CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE S'EST NETTEMENT ATTENUEE,
MAIS DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES A L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE MARQUEE, RESTENT
BIEN ACTIVES SUR TERRE, MAIS EGALEMENT SUR LE NORD DU CANAL ET LE
LONG DE LA COTE EST MALGACHE.AU VU DES DERNIERES IMAGES VISIBLES, LA
POSITION DU CENTRE A ETE LEGEREMENT DECALEE PLUS A L'EST.

AUJOURD'HUI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND
INCERTAINES LES POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE
DISPARITION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. LA RECONSTITUTION
D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE PUIS UNE ACCELERATION
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS DE JOURNEE.



DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER. ENSUITE, SA
TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER GRADUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-EST LUNDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES
AU SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE
SCENARIO, MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR
MER RESTENT SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME VA S'AFFAIBLIR ALORS QU'IL EVOLUE SUR TERRE.
DIMANCHE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT RESSORTIR SUR MER ET BENEFICIER DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS D'UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE COTE POLAIRE, PUIS LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU
THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE RE-INTENSIFICATION.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

LES RAFALES DEVRAIENT AVOISINER LES 100KM/H AUJOURD'HUI SUR LA COTE
ENTRE TAMATAVE ET L'ILE STE MARIE. ELIAKIM APPORTE DE FORTES PLUIES
SUR UNE LARGE MOITIE NORD DE MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170640

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/7/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 49.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 420 SW: 0 NW: 460
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 27.7 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.8 S / 55.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/22 06 UTC: 37.3 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELIAKIM SLOWLY MOVED INLAND. CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER IS ATTENUATING, BUT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE
PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS REMAINS STRONG, OVER LAND, AND ALSO OVER THE
NORTHEN PART OF THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL, AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF MALAGASY.CONSIDERING THE LAST VIOSIBLE SATELITE IMAGERY, THE LAST
POSITION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED EASTWARDS.

TODAY, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE RECONSTITUTION OF A RIDGE IN THE EAST SHOULD DRIVE A
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN IN THE COURSE OF THE DAY.



SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA. ITS TRACK
SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF
THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVERLAND.
SUNDAY EVENING, ELIAKIM SHOULD CAME BACK OVER SEA, AND BENEFITE IN
A FIRST TIME OF GOOD POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVENGENCE, THEN THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.
FROM TUESDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A
GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD STILL REACH 100 KM/H IN THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN
TOAMASINA AND STE MARIE ISLAND TODAY. ELIAKIM BRINGS IMPORTANT
RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 170625
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 49.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 225 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 18 UTC:
16.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 170023

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/7/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 49.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 420 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 0



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/03/2018 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 18/03/2018 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 18/03/2018 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2018 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 49.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 22/03/2018 00 UTC: 36.6 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, ELIAKIM S'EST LENTEMENT ENFONCE DANS
LES TERRES. LA CONVECTION RESTE PRESENTE PRES DU CENTRE, MAIS AVEC
UNE INTENSITE DESORMAIS LIMITEE. LE PSEUDO-OEIL EN BANDES ENCORE
VISIBLE A 18Z A DISPARU, SIGNE QUE LE SYSTEME COMMENCE SON
AFFFAIBLISSEMENT. PAR CONTRE, L'ACTIVITE ORAGEUSE DES BANDES
PERIPHERIQUES RESTE MARQUEE.


AUJOURD'HUI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND
INCERTAINES LES POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE
DISPARITION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. LA RECONSTITUTION
D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE PUIS UNE ACCELERATION
VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS DE JOURNEE. AU VU DU COMPORTEMENT DU
SYSTEME AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA PREVISION OFFICIELLE A ETE
LEGEREMENT DECALEE VERS L'EST. DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER. ENSUITE, SA TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT SE REDRESSER
GRADUELLEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST LUNDI, AVEC L'ARRIVEE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT
EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE
TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR MER RESTENT SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE
INCERTITUDE.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME VA S'AFFAIBLIR ALORS QU'IL EVOLUE SUR TERRE.
DIMANCHE, ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR MER, LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU
THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE RE-INTENSIFICATION.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

LES RAFALES DEVRAIENT AVOISINER LES 100KM/H AUJOURD'HUI SUR LA COTE
ENTRE TAMATAVE ET L'ILE STE MARIE. ELIAKIM APPORTE DE FORTES PLUIES
SUR UNE LARGE MOITIE NORD DE MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 170023

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 49.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 420 SE: 420 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/17 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/18 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 27.0 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 31.9 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/22 00 UTC: 36.6 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, ELIAKIM SLOWLY MOVED INLAND. CONVECTION IS
STILL TRIGGERING WITHIN THE SYSTEM'S CORE, BUT WITH A LIMITED
STRENGTH NOW. THE PSEUDO-BANDING EYE THAT WAS STILL VISIBLE AT 18Z
DISAPPEARED, SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN. HOWEVER, THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL
RAINBANDS REMAINS STRONG.

TODAY, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE RECONSTITUTION OF A RIDGE IN THE EAST SHOULD DRIVE A
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN IN THE COURSE OF THE DAY. CONSIDERING THE
BEHAVIOUR OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED EASTWARDS. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED
SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA. ITS TRACK SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDES
TROUGH ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE LOCALISATION
AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVERLAND. SUNDAY EVENING,
AS ELIAKIM SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF
A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT
THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. FROM TUESDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

WIND GUSTS SHOULD STILL REACH 100 KM/H IN THE COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN
TOAMASINA AND STE MARIE ISLAND TODAY. ELIAKIM BRINGS IMPORTANT
RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 170009
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 17/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 49.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 225 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/18 AT 00 UTC:
18.8 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161835

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/7/20172018
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 49.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SO: 0 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 17/03/2018 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 18/03/2018 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 21/03/2018 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, ELIAKIM A TRAVERSE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL.
UNE FOIS QUE SON CENTRE A ATTERRI SUR LA RIVE OUEST VERS 16Z, LE
SYSTEME A DE NOUVEAU TARDER A S'ENFONCER DANS LES TERRES ET EST MEME
LEGEREMENT REMONTE VERS LE NORD LE LONG DE LA COTE AU COURS DES 2
DERNIERES HEURES. DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT
PENETRER PLUS FRANCHEMENT DANS LES TERRES. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE
SONT NETTEMENT RECHAUFFES MAIS LA STRUCTURE INTERNE DU SYSTEME A
ENCORE PEU EVOLUE COMME LE MONTRE L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 91GHZ SSMIS DE
1446Z.

SAMEDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND INCERTAINES
LES POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE DISPARITION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. LA RECONSTITUTION D'UNE DORSALE A
L'EST DEVRAIT PILOTER UN VIRAGE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST EN COURS DE
JOURNEE. DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN MER ET
REDRESSER PROGRESSIVEMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU
SUD-EST AVEC L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST. LES
MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO, MEME SI LA
LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR MER RESTENT SOUMIS A
UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

CETTE NUIT ET SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME VA S'AFFAIBLIR ALORS QU'IL EVOLUE
SUR TERRE. DIMANCHE, ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR MER,
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT
DU THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE
RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE
GRANDISSANTE.

EN PREMIERE PARTIE DE NUIT, LA COTE SITUEE ENTRE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL
ET TAMATAVE VA RESTER CONCERNEE PAR DES RAFALES DE VENT ATTEIGNANT
LES 120-130KM/H LOCALEMENT. ELIAKIM APPORTE EGALEMENT DE FORTES
PLUIES SUR UNE LARGE MOITIE NORD DE MADAGASCAR. DES SURCOTES DE
L'ORDRE DE 1M SONT RESTENT POSSIBLES AU SUD DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL CE
SOIR. ATTENTION, CETTE VALEUR NE PREND PAS EN COMPTE LE SET-UP DES
VAGUES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161835

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20172018
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 49.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.7 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 26.1 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 31.1 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/21 18 UTC: 36.9 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST HOURS, ELIAKIM CROSSED THE ANTONGIL BAY. ONCE ITS
CIRCULATION CENTER LANDED ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE BAY, THE SYSTEM
DELAYED AGAIN ITS ADVANCE INLAND AND EVEN TRACKED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS. IN THE NEXT HOURS, ELIAKIM IS
EXPECTED TO GO INLAND MORE FRANKLY. THE CLOUD TOPS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMED BUT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE REMAINS RATHER UNCHANGED YET, AS
SHOWN BY THE 1446Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE.

SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE RECONSTITUTION OF A RIDGE IN THE EAST SHOULD
DRIVE A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TURN IN THE COURSE OF THE DAY. SUNDAY,
THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AND ITS TRACK SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE LOCALISATION
AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVERLANDAU
. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE
STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG
RANGE, ELIAKIM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING
BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, COASTAL REGIONS LOCATED BETWEEN
THE ANTONGIL BAY AND TOAMASINA SHOULD STILL UNDERGO WIND GUSTS UP TO
120-130KM/H LOCALLY. ELIAKIM ALSO BRINGS IMPORTANT RAINFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR. THE STORM SURGE COULD STILL REACH 1M ON
THE COAST TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE ANTONGIL BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE
DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP.=


Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 161824
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELIAKIM) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 49.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING
UP TO 200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 18 UTC:
17.9 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 161312

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/7/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 50.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : NEANT

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 290 SO: 190 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/03/2018 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 17/03/2018 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 18/03/2018 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 18/03/2018 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2018 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 21/03/2018 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
LE RELIEF DE LA PENINSULE DU CAP MASAOLA A FORTEMENT CONTRARIE LE
DEPLACEMENT GENERAL DU SYSTEME AVEC UN DEPLACEMENT QUI A SENSIBLEMENT
RALENTI DEPUIS LA MI-JOURNEE ET S'EST ORIENTE AU SUD DONNANT
L'IMPRESSION QUE LE SYSTEME CONTOURNE LE CAP PAR LE SUD.
UN BURST DE CONVECTION EST APPARU AU SEIN DE LA ZONE CENTRALE ET
EVOLUE RAPIDEMENT EN OEIL EN BANDE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES.LES VENTS
LES PLUS FORTS ETANT RESTES SUR MER DANS LA PARTIE EST DU SYSTEME
DURANT L'ESSENTIEL DE L'APRES-MIDI, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 55
KT. DES VENTS FORTS SONT ACTUELLEMENT REPORTES A 12 TU A ANTALAHA SUR
LA FACADE EST DU CAP MASAOLA.

LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT REPRENDRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES HEURES L'EMMENANT A CIRCULER SUR LA
BAIE D'ANTONGIL AVANT DE RENTRER FRANCHEMENT DANS LES TERRES EN
SOIREE.

SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND INCERTAIN
LES POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE DISPARATION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. DIMANCHE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN
MER ET CONTINUER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE A L'EST ET DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO,
MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR MER RESTENT
SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME VA PERDRE EN INTENSITE. DIMANCHE,
ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR MER, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU THALWEG DEVRAIT
FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, ELIAKIM POURRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION
SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

ELIAKIM RESTE UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS (RAFALES
130-150 KM/H) TOUCHENT L'EST ET LE SUD DE LA PENINSULE DE MASAOLA. LE
RISQUE DE SURCOTE VA ENFIN GRADUELLEMENT DIMINUER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES DANS LE FOND DE BAIE D'ANTONGIL AVEC LA BASCULE DES VENTS AU
NORD ENSUITE. DES SURCOTES DE L'ORDRE DE 1M SONT PAR CONTRE POSSIBLES
AU SUD DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL CE SOIR. ATTENTION, CETTE VALEUR NE
PREND PAS EN COMPTE LE SET-UP DES VAGUES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 161312

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/7/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 50.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 290 SW: 190 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/17 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/17 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/18 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/21 12 UTC: 34.0 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA HAS STRONGLY IMPACTED THE
FORWARD MOTION OF ELIAKIM WITH A SLOW DOWN OF THE TRACK AND NOW A
SOUTHWARDS TURN. IT SEEMS THAT THE THE SYSTEM IS PASSING TO THE SOUTH
OF THE PENINSULA. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS APPEARED WITHIN THE
CENTRAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS EVOLVED TOWARDS A BANDING EYE
FEATURE ON THE VERY LAST IMAGE. AS THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CENTER HAS REMAINED MOSTLY OVERSEAS, THE
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. AT 12 UTC, STRONG WINDS ARE REPORTED AT
ANTALAHA ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CAP MASAOLA.

THE TRACK SHOULD RESUME A MORE WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ANTONGIL BAY BEFORE A SECOND
LANDFALL LATER THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER
SEA AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE RIDGE AT EAST
AND THE ARRIVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF
THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN.

ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM
SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT
THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG RANGE, ELIAKIM MAY BEGIN
ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

ELIAKIM REMAINS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS (WITH
ASSOCIATED GUSTS UP TO 130-150 KM/H) ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE STORM SURGE THREAT IN THE BOTTOM
OF THE ANTONGIL BAY SHOULD GRADUALLY AND FINALLY EASE IN THE NEXT
HOURS AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AFTER THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE BAY.
THE STORM SURGE COULD STILL REACH 1M ON THE COAST LATER TONIGHT SOUTH
OF THE ANTONGIL BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE WAVE SET-UP.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 161225
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 50.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 205 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 00 UTC:
16.2 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 12 UTC:
17.0 S / 47.9 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160705

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 50.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SO: 370 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 290 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/03/2018 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
24H: 17/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 17/03/2018 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 18/03/2018 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 21/03/2018 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0

ELIAKIM EST ENTRAIN D'ATTERRIR SUR LA PRESQU'ILE DE MASAOLA. L'OEIL
DECHIQUETE ASSEZ LARGE QUI S'EST CONSTITUE DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT EST
ACTUELLEMENT EN BONNE PARTIE SUR TERRE. LES ESTIMATIONS SATELLITES
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER UNE
INTENSITE DANS LA GAMME DES 50-55 KT.

LA TRAJECTOIRE S'EST REDRESSEE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DEPUIS LA
SECONDE PARTIE DE NUIT (POSSIBLE INTERACTION AVEC LES TERRES). CET
APRES-MIDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CIRCULER SUR LE NORD DE LA BAIE
D'ANTONGIL AVANT DE RENTRER FRANCHEMENT DANS LES TERRES. BIEN QUE LE
COEUR DU SYSTEME SOIT EN COURS DE CONTRACTION, CE PASSAGE SUR MER A
PEU DE CHANCE D'ABOUTIR A UNE RE-INTENSIFICATION,TANT L'INTERACTION
AVEC LE RELIEF EST MAINTENANT IMPORTANTE.

SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND INCERTAIN
LES POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE DISPARATION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. DIMANCHE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN
MER ET CONTINUER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE A L'EST ET DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO,
MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR MER RESTENT
SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME VA PERDRE EN INTENSITE. DIMANCHE SOIR,
ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR MER, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU THALWEG DEVRAIT
FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN FIN
D'ECHEANCE, ELIAKIM POURRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION
SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

ELIAKIM RESTE UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX. LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS (RAFALES
130-150 KM/H) SONT VRAISEMBLABLEMENT SITUES DANS LA PARTIE ARRIERE DU
SYSTEME ET VONT GAGNER SUR TERRE SUITE A L'ACCALMIE LIEE AU PASSAGE
DU CENTRE. LE RISQUE DE SURCOTE VA GRADUELLEMENT DIMINUER DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES DANS LE FOND DE BAIE D'ANTONGIL AVEC LE CALME
CENTRAL ET LA BASCULE DES VENTS AU NORD ENSUITE. DES SURCOTES DE
L'ORDRE DE 1M SONT PAR CONTRE POSSIBLES AU SUD DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL
CET APRES-MIDI. ATTENTION, CETTE VALEUR NE PREND PAS EN COMPTE LE
SET-UP DES VAGUES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160705

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 50.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 520 SW: 370 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 300 SE: 290 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 47.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 28.0 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/21 06 UTC: 33.4 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

ELIAKIM IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE RAGGED AND
STILL LARGE EYE, THAT HAS FORMED LAST NIGHT, IS NOW MOSTLY OVERLAND.
AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE
50-55 KT RANGE.

THE TRACK HAS BEND WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS SINCE A FEW HOURS AS A
POSSIBLE LAND EFFECT. THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ANTONGIL BAY BEFORE A SECOND LANDFALL.
ALTHOUGH THE INNERCORE IS CONTRACTING, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD
PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE FORECAST POSITIONS ARE
THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER
SEA AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD, STEERED BY THE RIDGE AT EAST
AND THE ARRIVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF
THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN.

ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM
SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT
THE CHANCES FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG RANGE, ELIAKIM MAY BEGIN
ITS EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

ELIAKIM REMAINS A DANGEROUS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS (WITH
ASSOCIATED GUSTS UP TO 130-150 KM/H) ARE ESTIMATED IN THE REAR PART
OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AFTER THE CENTRAL CALM. THE STORM SURGE THREAT IN THE BOTTOM OF
THE ANTONGIL BAY SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE AFTER THE CENTER PASSED OVER
AND WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AFTER. THE STORM SURGE COULD STILL REACH 1M
ON THE COAST LATER TODAY SOUTH OF THE ANTONGIL BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS
VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE NOR THE WAVE SET-UP.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 160626
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 50.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 155 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 205 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 280 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 18 UTC:
16.0 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 06 UTC:
16.8 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 160030

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/7/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 50.9 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 410 SO: 330 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 130


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/03/2018 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2018 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 17/03/2018 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 18/03/2018 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 18/03/2018 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
72H: 19/03/2018 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2018 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 21/03/2018 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
NETTEMENT AMELIOREE AVEC A PRESENT, UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE TOUT
AUTOUR DU CENTRE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, LE COEUR DU SYSTEME SE
RETROUVE NOYE DANS LA MASSE. GRACE AUX IMAGES MICRO-ONDES (SSMI
2248Z), ON PEUT CONSTATER UNE NETTE CONSOLIDATION DE LA CIRCULATION
INTERNE NOTAMMENT EN BASSES COUCHES. L'INTENSIFICATION SE POURSUIT
DONC ALORS QUE LE MUR OCCIDENTALE ABORDE LA PENINSULE DE MASOALA.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, ELIAKIM RESTE GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE AU SUD-EST ET CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER GLOBALEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR AUJOURD'HUI
ENTRE LA PENINSULE DE MASOALA ET DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE. SAMEDI, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND INCERTAIN LES
POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE DISPARATION DE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. DIMANCHE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT RESSORTIR EN
MER ET CONTINUER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE
LA DORSALE A L'EST ET DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO,
MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR MER RESTENT
SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-EST MALGACHE AUJOURD'HUI,
AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A SON
ATTERRISSAGE. UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME VA PERDRE EN INTENSITE.
DIMANCHE SOIR, ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR MER, LE
RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A L'AVANT DU
THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE RE-INTENSIFICATION.
EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ELIAKIM POURRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE
D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

ELIAKIM EST UN SYSTEME DANGEREUX ET LES CONDITIONS VONT CONTINUER DE
SE DEGRADER A PROXIMITE DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL ET DE L'ILE SAINTE
MARIE. LA SURCOTE OCCASIONNEE PAR ELIAKIM POURRAIT ATTEINDRE 1M SUR
LA COTE, ET LOCALEMENT 2M VERS MAROANTSETRA. ATTENTION, CETTE VALEUR
NE PREND PAS EN COMPTE LE SET-UP DES VAGUES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 160030

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 50.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 410 SE: 410 SW: 330 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 130


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/16 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2018/03/17 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/17 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/18 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2018/03/19 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/20 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2018/03/21 00 UTC: 31.3 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
CURRENTLY, DEEP CONVECTION ALL AROUND THE CENTER. ON THE LATEST
IMAGES, THE CORE IS EVEN EMBEDDED. MICROWAVE IMAGERY (SSMI 2248Z)
CONFIRMS A CLEAR CONSOLIDATION OF THE INNER CIRCULATION ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LEVELS. DEEPENING KEEPS ON GOING AS THE WESTERN WALL REACH
MASOALA PENINSULA.


FOR THE TRACK FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL
ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR TODAY BETWEEN MASOALA PENINSULA AND STE
MARIE ISLAND. ON SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE
FORECAST POSITIONS ARE THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED
SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD,
STEERED BY THE RIDGE AT EAST AND THE ARRIVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN
OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM UP TO ITS LANDING ON THE MALAGASY NORTH-EASTERN COASTS TODAY,
THANKS TO A GREAT UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACH THE
MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE JUST BEFORE LANDING. ONCE OVERLAND,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD HAVE JUST
CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG RANGE, ELIAKIM MAY BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

ELIAKIM IS A THREATENING SYSTEM AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO WORSEN NEAR ANTONGIL BAY AND SAINTE MARIE ISLAND. THE STORM SURGE
COULD REACH 1M ON THE COAST AND LOCALLY 2M NEAR MAROANTSETRA. BEWARE
THAT THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE NOR THE WAVE
SET-UP.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 160018
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2018
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 16/03/2018 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 50.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A RADIUS OF 150 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2018/03/17 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151909

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/7/20172018
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 15/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 51.8 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 983 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SO: 370 NO: 330
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SO: 220 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
36H: 17/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 17/03/2018 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 18/03/2018 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2018 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 20/03/2018 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, APRES AVOIR CONNU UNE PHASE
D'AMELIORATION, AVEC L'ENROULEMENT DU BANDE DE LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LE
SYSTEME A PERDU EN ORGANISATION EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. LES IMAGES
MICRO-ONDES (SSMIS 1456Z) CONFIRMENT LA PREMIERE IMPRESSION AVEC UN
LARGE COEUR ENVELOPPE DANS PLUS D'UN DEMI-ANNEAU DE CONVECTION.
ELIAKIM A DONC ETE CLASSE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
NE REFLETE PAS L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A CAUSE DE SA STRUCTURE LARGE.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, ELIAKIM RESTE GUIDE PAR UNE
DORSALE AU SUD-EST ET CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI ENTRE LA PENINSULE DE MASOALA ET DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE. EN
JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT EVOLUER SUR TERRE, CE QUI REND
INCERTAIN LES POSITIONS PREVUES EN RAISON DE LA POSSIBLE DISPARATION
DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES. DIMANCHE, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT
RESSORTIR EN MER ET CONTINUER EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE A L'EST ET DE L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR
CE SCENARIO, MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR
MER RESTENT SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-EST MALGACHE VENDREDI, AVEC
NOTAMMENT UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA STRUCTURE INTERNE
LARGE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT CONTINUER A EMPECHER UN CREUSEMENT RAPIDE. LE
SYSTEME POURRAIT ETRE PROCHE DU STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A
SON ATTERRISSAGE. UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME VA PERDRE DE SON
INTENSITE. DIMANCHE SOIR, ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR
MER, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A
L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER UNE EVENTUELLE
RE-INTENSIFICATION. EN FIN D'ECHEANCE, ELIAKIM POURRAIT ENTAMER SA
PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE
GRANDISSANTE.

LE LARGE COEUR DU SYSTEME COMMENCE A APPROCHER LA PENINSULE DE
MASOALA. LES CONDITIONS VONT DONC CONTINUER DE SE DEGRADER ET DEVENIR
DANGEUREUSES. LA SURCOTE OCCASIONNEE PAR ELIAKIM POURRAIT ATTEINDRE
1M SUR LA COTE, ET LOCALEMENT 2M AU FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL, VERS
MAROANTSETRA. ATTENTION, CETTE VALEUR NE PREND PAS EN COMPTE LE
SET-UP DES VAGUES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151909

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20172018
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 51.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 370 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/16 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/18 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 49.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/19 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/03/20 18 UTC: 30.0 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AFTER AN IMPROVEMENT, WITH A BAND WRAPPING
IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE SYSTEM LOST ORGANIZATION IN INFRARED
IMAGERY. MICROWAVE DATA (SSMIS 1456Z) CONFIRM THE FIRST IMPRESSION
WITH A BROAD CORE SURROUNDED BY HALF A RING OF CONVECTION. ELIAKIM
WAS SO UPGRADED TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATE DO NOT
REFLECT THE SYSTEM INTENSITY BECAUSE OF ITS LARGE STRUCTURE.

FOR THE TRACK FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL
ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR FRIDAY BETWEEN MASOALA PENINSULA AND STE
MARIE ISLAND. ON SATURDAY, ELIAKIM SHOULD EVOLVE OVERLAND, THE
FORECAST POSITIONS ARE THEREFORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
DISAPPEARING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED
SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD,
STEERED BY THE RIDGE AT EAST AND THE ARRIVING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH-WEST. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN
OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE MALAGASY NORTH-EASTERN COASTS FRIDAY,
THANKS TO A GREAT UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER THE WIDE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE SHOULD PREVENT A RAPID DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSE
TO THE MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE JUST BEFORE LANDING. ONCE
OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD
HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION. AT LONG RANGE, ELIAKIM MAY BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

THE SYSTEM BROAD CORE IS COMING CLOSER TO THE MASOALA PENINSULA. THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN, AND WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS. THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH 1M ON THE COAST AND LOCALLY 2M
IN THE BOTTOM OF ANTONGIL BAY NEAR MAROANTSETRA. BEWARE THAT THIS
VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE NOR THE WAVE SET-UP.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 151815
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2018
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/03/2018 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 983 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 51.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 120 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.1 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 18 UTC:
16.3 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 151243

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 53.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 986 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO: 320
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 90



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 16/03/2018 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.9 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2018 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 17/03/2018 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 17/03/2018 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX=045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 18/03/2018 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 18/03/2018 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2018 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 20/03/2018 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU
EVOLUE. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX ONT EU LEGEREMENT TENDANCE A SE
RECHAUFFER MAIS LA CONVECTION CONTINUE DE S'ENROULER PRES DU CENTRE.
LES NUAGES CIRRIFORMES TEMOIGNENT DE LA FORTE DIVERGENCE DONT
BENEFICIE ELIAKIM, AVEC DES CANAUX D'EVACUATION COTE POLAIRE ET
EQUATORIAL.

PAS D'EVOLUTION SIGNIFICATIVE EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE,
ELIAKIM RESTE GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE AU SUD-EST ET CONTINUE DE SE
DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI DANS LA REGION DE LA
PENINSULE DE MASOALA ET DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE. LORS DE SON PASSAGE
SUR TERRE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT TOURNER EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-EST ALORS QUE LA DORSALE S'EFFACE VERS L'EST ET QU'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST. DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME
AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR SUR MER ET CONTINUER EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-EST. LES MODELES RESTENT EN ASSEZ BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO,
MEME SI LA LOCALISATION ET LE TIMING DE LA RESSORTIE SUR MER RESTENT
SOUMIS A UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-EST MALGACHE VENDREDI, AVEC
NOTAMMENT UNE BELLE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA STRUCTURE INTERNE LARGE
DEVRAIT CEPENDANT EMPECHER UN CREUSEMENT TRES RAPIDE. LE SYSTEME
POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A SON
ATTERRISSAGE. UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME VA PERDRE DE SON
INTENSITE. DIMANCHE SOIR, ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR
MER, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A
L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER SA RE-INTENSIFICATION.
MARDI, ELIAKIM POURRAIT ENTAMER SA PHASE D'EXTRATROPICALISATION SOUS
UNE INFLUENCE BAROCLINE GRANDISSANTE.

LES PREMIERES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES D'ELIAKIM COMMENCENT A ATTEINDRE
LA COTE NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. LES CONDITIONS VONT CONTINUER DE SE
DEGRADER, ET VONT DEVENIR PARTICULIEREMENT DANGEREUSES VENDREDI LORS
DE SON ATTERRISSAGE. LA SURCOTE OCCASIONNEE PAR ELIAKIM POURRAIT
ATTEINDRE 2M AU FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL, VERS MAROANTSETRA.
ATTENTION, CETTE VALEUR NE PREND PAS EN COMPTE LE SET-UP DES VAGUES.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 151243

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 320
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/16 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2018/03/17 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/17 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/18 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/18 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/19 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/03/20 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN DID NOT EVOLVE MUCH. THE
CLOUD TOPS SLIGHTLY WARMED BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE CENTER. CIRRUS CLOUDS STILL MATERIALIZE THE STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER ELIAKIM, WITH BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
EVACUATION CHANNELS.

NO SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION IN THE TRACK FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR FRIDAY IN THE
REGION OF THE MASOALA PENINSULA AND STE MARIE ISLAND. DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER LAND, ELIAKIM SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO, EVEN IF THE
LOCALISATION AND TIMING OF THE RETURN OVER SEA REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE MALAGASY NORTH-EASTERN COASTS FRIDAY,
THANKS TO A GREAT UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER THE WIDE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE SHOULD PREVENT A RAPID DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH
THE MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE JUST BEFORE LANDING. ONCE
OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM SHOULD
HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTH-WESTERLY
SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT ITS
RE-INTENSIFICATION. TUESDAY, ELIAKIM MAY BEGIN ITS
EXTRATROPICALISATION UNDER A GROWING BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE.

THE FIRST PERIPHERAL BANDS OF ELIAKIM ARE CURRENTLY REACHING THE
NORTH-EASTERN MALAGASY COASTS. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO WORSEN, AND WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FRIDAY DURING ITS
LANDING. THE STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2M IN THE BOTTOM OF ANTONGIL BAY
NEAR MAROANTSETRA. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
THE TIDE NOR THE WAVE SET-UP.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 151212
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2018
AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/03/2018 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 986 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 53.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
AND NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 175
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
15.9 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.0 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=


Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 150626

CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/7/20172018
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 54.2 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 460 SO: 370 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SO: 90 NO:



7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 15/03/2018 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 16/03/2018 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
48H: 17/03/2018 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
60H: 17/03/2018 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
72H: 18/03/2018 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX=035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2018 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
120H: 20/03/2018 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 24H, UNE BANDE DE CONVECTION INTENSE S'EST
ENROULEE AUTOUR DU CENTRE, FAISANT GRADUELLEMENT AUGMENTER LES
ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE DVORAK. LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE BAPTISE
"ELIAKIM" CE MATIN A 02Z PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE NATIONAL DE
MADAGASCAR. LES OBSERVATIONS AU SOL DE L'ILOT DE TROMELIN CONFIRMENT
LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT AUTOUR D'ELIAKIM, AVEC UN VENT MOYEN
ATTEIGNANT MEME 45KT SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES. L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
A DONC ETE LEGEREMENT RELEVEE PAR RAPPORT A CELLE DONNEE PAR
L'ESTIMATION DVORAK. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDES WINDSAT DE 0227Z MONTRE QUE
LE COEUR DU SYSTEME RESTE PLUTOT LARGE.

PAS D'EVOLUTION SIGNIFICATIVE EN TERMES DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE,
ELIAKIM RESTE GUIDE PAR UNE DORSALE AU SUD-EST ET CONTINUE DE SE
DEPLACER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE VENDREDI DANS LA REGION DE LA
PENINSULE DE MASOALA ET DE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE. LORS DE SON PASSAGE
SUR TERRE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI, ELIAKIM DEVRAIT TOURNER EN DIRECTION
DU SUD-EST ALORS QUE LA DORSALE S'EFFACE VERS L'EST ET QU'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVE PAR LE SUD-OUEST. DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME
AFFAIBLI DEVRAIT RESSORTIR SUR MER ET CONTINUER EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DU SUD-EST. LES MODELES SONT DESORMAIS EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

L'ENVIRONNEMENT RESTE FAVORABLE A UNE INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME
JUSQU'A SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE MALGACHE VENDREDI OU SAMEDI
MATIN, AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE BELLE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE. LA STRUCTURE
INTERNE LARGE DEVRAIT CEPENDANT EMPECHER UN CREUSEMENT TRES RAPIDE.
LE SYSTEME POURRAIT ATTEINDRE LE STADE MINIMAL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL A
SON ATTERRISSAGE. UNE FOIS SUR TERRE, LE SYSTEME VA PERDRE DE SON
INTENSITE. DIMANCHE SOIR, ALORS QU'ELIAKIM DEVRAIT ETRE RESSORTI SUR
MER, LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE DE NORD-OUEST A
L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DEVRAIT FORTEMENT LIMITER SA RE-INTENSIFICATION.

LES PREMIERES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES D'ELIAKIM COMMENCE A ATTEINDRE LA
COTE NORD-EST DE MADAGASCAR. LES CONDITIONS VONT CONTINUER DE SE
DEGRADER, ET VONT DEVENIR PARTICULIEREMENT DANGEREUSES VENDREDI LORS
DE SON ATTERRISSAGE.=


Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 150626

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20172018
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM)

2.A POSITION 2018/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 460 SW: 370 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 190 SW: 90 NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2018/03/15 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2018/03/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2018/03/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2018/03/17 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 48.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
60H: 2018/03/17 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
72H: 2018/03/18 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2018/03/19 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2018/03/20 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND
THE CIRCULATION CENTER, GRADUALLY INCREASING THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATIONS. AS A CONSEQUENCE, THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
MADAGASCAR PROCEEDED TO THE NAMING OF THE STORM AT 02Z THIS MORNING.
THE GROUND OBSERVATION DATA OF TROMELIN ISLAND CONFIRM THE PRESENCE
OF GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND ELIAKIM WITH 10MN MEAN WINDS REACHING 45KT
IN THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED A BIT
COMPARED TO THE DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE 0227Z WINDSAT MW IMAGE SHOWS
THAT ELIAKIM'S INNER CORE REMAINS RATHER WIDE.

NO SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION IN THE TRACK FORECAST, ELIAKIM REMAINS
STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST AND CONTINUES TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD UNTIL ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR FRIDAY IN THE
REGION OF THE MASOALA PENINSULA AND STE MARIE ISLAND. DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER LAND, ELIAKIM SHOULD TURN SOUTH-EASTWARD AS THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. SUNDAY, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-EASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS
NOW IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SCENARIO.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM UNTIL ITS LANDING ON THE MALAGASY NORTH-EASTERN COASTS FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY MORNING, THANKS TO A GREAT UPPER DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER THE
WIDE INNER CORE STRUCTURE SHOULD PREVENT A RAPID DEEPENING. THE
SYSTEM COULD REACH THE MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE LANDING.
ONCE OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN. SUNDAY EVENING, AS ELIAKIM
SHOULD HAVE JUST CAME BACK OVER SEA, THE STRENGTHENING OF A
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT
ITS RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE FIRST PERIPHERAL BAND OF ELIAKIM ARE CURRENTLY REACHING THE
NORTH-EASTERN MALAGASY COASTS. THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO WORSEN, AND WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FRIDAY DURING ITS
LANDING.=


Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 150616
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2018
AT
0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 15/03/2018 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELIAKIM) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 54.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 85 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 175 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2018/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
15.9 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2018/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=