Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FIFTEEN-24
in Cook Islands
17 Feb 2024 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FIFTEEN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries French Polynesia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Cook Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h n.a. 686 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 104 km/h n.a. 686 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormFrench Polynesia443 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 15 Feb 2024 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Cook Islands
GREEN 2 16 Feb 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Cook Islands
GREEN 3 16 Feb 2024 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Cook Islands
GREEN 4 16 Feb 2024 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Cook Islands
GREEN 5 16 Feb 2024 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Cook Islands, French Polynesia
GREEN 6 17 Feb 2024 00:00 86 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
GREEN 7 17 Feb 2024 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 17 Feb 2024 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Feb 2024 18:00 101 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmSamoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tonga145,200
+
Wallis and Futuna3,947 
Samoa64,073 
Fiji76,122 
Tonga1,056 
50-100 mmTokelau, Tuvalu, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Tonga285,656
+
Tokelau451 
Tuvalu21 
American Samoa55,537 
Wallis and Futuna9,203 
Samoa129,154 
Fiji71,827 
Tonga19,459 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 15 Feb 2024 18:00 153 -
- - - - - Samoa, American Samoa, Fiji, Cook Islands
Blue 2 16 Feb 2024 00:00 176 -
- - - - - Fiji
Blue 3 16 Feb 2024 06:00 150 6 thousand
- - - - Fiji
Blue 4 16 Feb 2024 12:00 265 30 thousand
- - - - Fiji
Blue 5 16 Feb 2024 18:00 170 Few people
- - - - Fiji
Blue 6 17 Feb 2024 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 17 Feb 2024 06:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 17 Feb 2024 12:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Feb 2024 18:00 383 150 thousand
- - - - Tokelau, Tuvalu, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    

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