Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FIFTEEN-24 in Cook Islands from 15 Feb 2024 18:00 UTC to 17 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FIFTEEN-24

in Cook Islands

17 Feb 2024 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FIFTEEN-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Cook Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (16 Feb 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Cook Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	83 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 17000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	93	20 thousand	No people	Cook Islands
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	83	20 thousand	No people	Cook Islands
3	16 Feb 2024 12:00	74	20 thousand	No people	Cook Islands
4	17 Feb 2024 00:00	83	20 thousand	No people	Cook Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	15 Feb 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	14000 people	-17, -164.5
2	16 Feb 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	15000 people	-17.8, -163.3
3	16 Feb 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	13000 people	-20.3, -160.6
4	17 Feb 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	-23.4, -155
4	17 Feb 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-27.3, -152.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Cook Is.	8200 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Cook Is.	Cook Islands	8200 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Avarua		Cook Islands	Capital	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mangaia	MGS	14	Priv.	Unpaved	Yes	3400
Akatoka Manava	MUK	8	Priv.	Unpaved	Yes	5900
Mitiaro	MOI	unknown				0
Atiu	AIU	unknown				0
Rarotonga International	RAR	7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Avatiu		Cook Islands
Arutunga		Cook Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Avarua, Cook Islands. This height is estimated for 16 Feb 2024 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (8 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 16 Feb 2024 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 Feb 2024 15:00	Avarua	Cook Islands	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 15:00	Muri	Cook Islands	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 15:00	Arorangi	Cook Islands	0.3
	16 Feb 2024 19:00	Oneroa	Cook Islands	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 19:00	Ivirua	Cook Islands	0.2
	16 Feb 2024 09:00	Arutunga	Cook Islands	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 09:00	Tautu	Cook Islands	0.1
	16 Feb 2024 15:00	Tengatangi	Cook Islands	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.