Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVARO-24 in Madagascar from 31 Dec 2023 12:00 UTC to 04 Jan 2024 16:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24

in Madagascar

04 Jan 2024 16 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	127 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (03 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 01 Jan 2024 16:00 - 01 Jan 2024 22:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	95 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	127 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

95 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	63	No people	No people
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	74	No people	No people
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	84	No people	No people
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	84	280 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	01 Jan 2024 10:00	106	7.4 million	No people	Madagascar
6	01 Jan 2024 16:00	127	970 thousand	No people	Madagascar
7	01 Jan 2024 22:00	106	6.1 million	No people	Madagascar
8	02 Jan 2024 04:00	84	8.9 million	No people	Madagascar
9	02 Jan 2024 10:00	74	3.6 million	No people	Madagascar
10	02 Jan 2024 16:00	74	2.1 million	No people	Madagascar
11	02 Jan 2024 22:00	95	2 million	No people	Madagascar
12	03 Jan 2024 04:00	95	7.1 million	No people	Madagascar
13	03 Jan 2024 10:00	95	6.1 million	No people	Madagascar
14	03 Jan 2024 16:00	84	6.1 million	No people	Madagascar
15	03 Jan 2024 22:00	84	5 million	No people	Madagascar
16	04 Jan 2024 04:00	95	5 million	No people	Madagascar
17	04 Jan 2024 10:00	95	5 million	No people	Madagascar
18	04 Jan 2024 16:00	95	5 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-20.1, 38.3
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-20.4, 39
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.7, 39.9
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	280000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.9, 40.6
5	01 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.7 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-21.3, 41.6
6	01 Jan 2024 16:00	Category 1	127	no people	580000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-21.4, 42.7
7	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	2.6 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-21.3, 43.9	Madagascar
8	02 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.6 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-21.4, 45	Madagascar
9	02 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-21.4, 45.7	Madagascar
10	02 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-21.6, 47	Madagascar
11	02 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	90000 people	Overland Depression	56	-21.8, 48.5	Madagascar
12	03 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	5.1 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-22.3, 49.8
13	03 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-23.2, 50.6
14	03 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-24.3, 51.8
15	03 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-25.3, 53
16	04 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-26.6, 54.2
17	04 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-27.8, 55.6
18	04 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-29, 57.3
18	05 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-30.4, 60
18	05 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-30.6, 62.2
18	06 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-30.4, 63.4
18	06 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-30.1, 64.4
18	07 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-29.5, 65.1
18	07 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-28.7, 65.5

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	5 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Toliara	Madagascar	1.8 million people
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	3.2 million people
Toamasina	Madagascar	58000 people
Mahajanga	Madagascar	<1000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Farafangana	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	25000 people
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people
Tulear	Toliara	Madagascar	Major city	-
Manja	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Farafangana	RVA	8	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3400
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Toliara	TLE	8	Civ.	Paved	No	6500
Malaimbandy	WML	182	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Mandabe	WMD	290	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Ambatolahy	AHY	unknown				0
Manja	MJA	240	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Morondava	MOQ	7	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Belo Sur Tsiribihina	BMD	47	Civ.	Paved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farafangana	MGRVA	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Toliara	MGTLE	Madagascar
Manombo	MGMOB	Madagascar
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer		Madagascar
Antongo		Madagascar
Morondava	MGMOQ	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Tamotamo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 03 Jan 2024 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 04 Jan 2024 16:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.