Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVARO-24 in Madagascar from 31 Dec 2023 12:00 UTC to 01 Jan 2024 04:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24

in Madagascar

01 Jan 2024 04 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	127 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (01 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	84 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	127 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

84 km/h Current Max.

Up to 280000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	63	No people	No people
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	74	No people	No people
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	84	No people	No people
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	84	280 thousand	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-20.1, 38.3
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-20.4, 39
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.7, 39.9
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	280000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-21, 40.8
4	01 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical depression	54	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	48	-21.3, 41.7

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	270000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Toliara	Madagascar	270000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar
Antongo		Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (85 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 01 Jan 2024 04:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 08:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 08:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 07:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.