Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for BELAL-24 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar from 12 Jan 2024 16:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2024 04:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BELAL-24

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELAL-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
Exposed population	960 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	158 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (15 Jan 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Reunion)
Landfall	between 15 Jan 2024 04:00 - 15 Jan 2024 10:00 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	63 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	158 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

63 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	12 Jan 2024 16:00	201	2.3 million	420 thousand	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	12 Jan 2024 22:00	179	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	13 Jan 2024 04:00	201	2.3 million	860 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	13 Jan 2024 10:00	232	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
5	13 Jan 2024 16:00	232	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
6	13 Jan 2024 22:00	211	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	14 Jan 2024 04:00	190	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	14 Jan 2024 10:00	190	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
9	14 Jan 2024 16:00	137	16.9 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Mauritius
10	14 Jan 2024 22:00	190	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
11	15 Jan 2024 04:00	169	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
12	15 Jan 2024 10:00	158	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
13	15 Jan 2024 16:00	137	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
14	15 Jan 2024 22:00	137	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
15	16 Jan 2024 04:00	137	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
16	16 Jan 2024 10:00	116	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
17	16 Jan 2024 16:00	106	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
18	16 Jan 2024 22:00	116	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
19	17 Jan 2024 04:00	116	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
20	17 Jan 2024 10:00	106	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
21	17 Jan 2024 16:00	95	2.2 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
22	17 Jan 2024 22:00	95	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
23	18 Jan 2024 04:00	95	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
24	18 Jan 2024 10:00	106	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
25	18 Jan 2024 16:00	106	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
26	18 Jan 2024 22:00	84	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
27	19 Jan 2024 04:00	63	2.3 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	12 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.2, 56.7
2	12 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.6, 56.3
3	13 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-14.8, 55.8
4	13 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-15.8, 54.9
5	13 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-16.7, 54.2
6	13 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-17.5, 53.8
7	14 Jan 2024 04:00	Category 1	137	no people	44000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-18.4, 53.5
8	14 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 1	137	no people	960000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-19.1, 53.4
9	14 Jan 2024 13:00	Category 1	137	no people	16.9 million people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-19.4, 53.5
9	14 Jan 2024 16:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-19.7, 53.5
10	14 Jan 2024 16:00	Category 1	137	no people	960000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-19.7, 53.6
10	14 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 2	158	no people	960000 people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-20, 53.8
11	15 Jan 2024 04:00	Category 2	158	960000 people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-20.3, 54.4
12	15 Jan 2024 10:00	Category 2	158	960000 people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	139	-20.8, 55.4	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
13	15 Jan 2024 16:00	Category 1	137	880000 people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-21.4, 56
14	15 Jan 2024 22:00	Category 1	137	no people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-21.6, 57
15	16 Jan 2024 04:00	Category 1	137	no people	2.2 million people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-22.2, 58.2
16	16 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	1.7 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-23, 59.1
17	16 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	580000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-23.2, 60.3
18	16 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-23.4, 61.4
19	17 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	42000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-23.8, 62.6
20	17 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-23.9, 63.2
21	17 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-24, 63.8
22	17 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	42000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-24, 64.6
23	18 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-23.9, 65.2
24	18 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-23.7, 65.8
25	18 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-23.8, 65.8
26	18 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-23.8, 65
27	19 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-23.6, 64.5
27	19 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-23.7, 63.5
27	20 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-24.3, 62.4
27	20 Jan 2024 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-25.3, 60.6

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mauritius	1.3 million people
Reunion	880000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mauritius	Mauritius	1.3 million people
Reunion	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands	880000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Port Louis		Mauritius	Capital	150000 people
Saint-Denis		Reunion	Capital	140000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Rodrigues Plaine Corail	RRG	40	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3300
Plaisance International	MRU	57	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9900
St Pierre Pierrefonds	ZSE	16				0
Saint Denis Gillot	RUN	20				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Port Mathurin		Mauritius
Mahebourg		Mauritius
Port Louis	MUPLU	Mauritius
Saint Pierre		Reunion
Saint Denis		Reunion
Pointe Des Galets	REPDG	Reunion

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Le Port, Reunion. This height is estimated for 15 Jan 2024 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (46 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 26 of 18 Jan 2024 10:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 Jan 2024 22:00	Le Port	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 22:00	La Possession	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 22:00	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 23:00	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.3
	15 Jan 2024 22:00	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.3
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.3
	16 Jan 2024 03:00	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.3
	16 Jan 2024 03:00	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 02:00	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 02:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 02:00	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 00:00	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 01:00	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Choisy	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Black River	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Souillac	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 02:00	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 02:00	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.2
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.2
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Grande Reviere Sud Est	Mauritius	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 08:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 08:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 11:00	Saint-Antoine	Mauritius	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 00:00	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.1
	16 Jan 2024 07:00	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Jan 2024 06:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2024 16:00	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.1
	17 Jan 2024 16:00	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.