Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUALOI-19 in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam from 19 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC to 24 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUALOI-19

in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BUALOI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	176 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

176 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2200 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Oct 2019 00:00	167	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
2	19 Oct 2019 06:00	130	50 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
3	19 Oct 2019 12:00	157	50 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	19 Oct 2019 18:00	194	60 thousand	4 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	20 Oct 2019 00:00	204	60 thousand	6 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	20 Oct 2019 06:00	213	60 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	20 Oct 2019 12:00	213	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	20 Oct 2019 18:00	213	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
9	21 Oct 2019 00:00	222	70 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
10	21 Oct 2019 06:00	231	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
11	21 Oct 2019 12:00	231	370 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
12	21 Oct 2019 18:00	222	90 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
13	22 Oct 2019 00:00	222	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
14	22 Oct 2019 06:00	231	90 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
15	22 Oct 2019 12:00	241	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
16	22 Oct 2019 18:00	231	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
17	23 Oct 2019 00:00	222	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
18	23 Oct 2019 06:00	185	90 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
19	23 Oct 2019 12:00	185	160 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
20	23 Oct 2019 18:00	185	50 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
21	24 Oct 2019 00:00	176	50 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
22	24 Oct 2019 06:00	176	50 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.3, 156.7
2	19 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.8, 155.2
3	19 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11, 153.7
4	19 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.4, 152.4
5	20 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.6, 151.3
6	20 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12.2, 150.4
7	20 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.7, 149.8
8	20 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	8700 people	13.3, 149	Northern Mariana Islands
9	21 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	51000 people	14.1, 148.2	Northern Mariana Islands
10	21 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	52000 people	14.7, 147.6	Northern Mariana Islands
11	21 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	51000 people	15.4, 146.8	Northern Mariana Islands
12	21 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	51000 people	16.3, 145.9	Northern Mariana Islands
13	22 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.1, 145
14	22 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18.1, 144.4
15	22 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	19.2, 143.5
16	22 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	20.4, 143.1
17	23 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	<1000 people	21.7, 142.2
18	23 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 3	185	<1000 people	2700 people	22.8, 142
19	23 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 3	185	2200 people	2800 people	24, 141.9
20	23 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 3	185	2200 people	2800 people	25.3, 142
21	24 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 2	176	2200 people	2300 people	26.9, 142.3
22	24 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	2200 people	28.2, 142.7
22	24 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	31, 144.5
22	25 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	34.1, 146.5
22	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	37.6, 148.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Muko		Japan
Omura		Japan
Haha		Japan
Minami Lo		Japan
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Oki, Japan. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2019 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (99 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 24 Oct 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Oct 2019 23:00	Oki	Japan	0.4
	23 Oct 2019 23:00	Hyogidaira	Japan	0.4
	24 Oct 2019 01:00	Omura	Japan	0.4
	24 Oct 2019 01:00	Ogigaura	Japan	0.4
	24 Oct 2019 01:00	Sakaiura	Japan	0.4
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Odaito	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tokotan	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Fushiko-tobuto	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Choshi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Okunoya	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Yatabe	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Bekkai	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Svetloye	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kashima	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Churuigenya	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kumbetsu	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Rukushibetsu	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Komagamine	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Nakumura	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Tsurishi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Haragama	Japan	0.2
	23 Oct 2019 16:00	Higashi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Omi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Hamatsuga	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Aotsuka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kyuchu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Koya	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Nishi-wada	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Golovnino	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Onaba	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kiyohashi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Taiyo	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Otake	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Dainigorisawa	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Muyokama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kyochikama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ruchi	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Protochnaya	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Sakamoto	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Iso	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Umekawa	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Isobe	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Takahira	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kayahama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tomioka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Oragahama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Naraha	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kami-Shigeoka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Hokota	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Katsuori	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Nemuro	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Moshirikeshi	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Zeikomae	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Noda	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Minami-Ibi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Tachiya	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kami-Asamigawa	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ide	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Shimo-Kitabo	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Aratame	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Shimo-Takaku	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Toyoma	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ena	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Omori	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 11:00	Asahi Yokaichiba	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tomoshiri	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Onirusu	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Yamashita	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Yokoyama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Odaka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Futaba	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Shirane	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Toyooka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kuji	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Mizuki	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ohahama	Japan	0.1
	23 Oct 2019 18:00	Ishinomura	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Hikiushi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Nassafu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Akiajiba	Russia	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Shibetsu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kamigama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Kaikomba	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Kasano	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Hanagama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Shibamachi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Warabi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Arahama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Arayashik	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Kabasaki	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Natsumi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Terashita	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Hirakata	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tokawacho	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Inuwaka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kubota	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Ueda	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Yotsukura	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kiritappu	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.