Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NIRAN-21
in New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone NIRAN-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000772
Name NIRAN-21
Glide number: TC-2021-000069-NCL
From - To 01 Mar - 07 Mar
Exposed countries New Caledonia, Australia, Norfolk Island, Vanuatu
Exposed population 240 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 259 km/h Category 5
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (01 Mar 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 93 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 274 km/h 1.2 m 864 mm 2.5
GFS 349 km/h 1.1 m 1134 mm 2.5
ECMWF 202 km/h 0.9 m 1018 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Australia - Tropical Cyclone NIRAN (ECHO 03 Mar 2021)Wed, 03 Mar 2021 13:43

  • On 1 March, the new Tropical Cyclone NIRAN formed in the Coral Sea. On 3 March at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located about 300 km east of the far-north eastern Queensland coast, with maximum sustained wind of 120 km/h.
  • Strong wind and heavy rain have been reported in the Cairns Region (eastern Queensland). According to media, about 42,000 residents experienced power outages. Material damage was reported to several buildings and crops.
  • NIRAN is forecast to move south-east over the Coral Sea and could approach New Caledonia on 6 March.
  • Warnings for strong wind have been issued for eastern coastal areas in far-north Queensland, specifically from Cape Flattery to Innisfail. Moderate rain is forecast over eastern far-north Queensland on 3-4 March.
Australia, New Caledonia - Tropical Cyclone NIRAN update Thu, 04 Mar 2021 10:00

  • Tropical Cyclone NIRAN continues to strengthen over the Coral Sea and on 4 March at 0.00 UTC its centre was located about 365 km northeast of Cairns City (Far North Queensland Region) with maximum sustained wind of 155 km/h.
  • NIRAN is forecast to rapidly intensify moving east-southeast away from the Queensland coast since 4 March and it will approach New Caledonia on 6-7 March.
  • On 4-5 March, strong wind warnings are in effect over the Cooktown and Cairns coastal area (Queensland). Over the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain is forecast over eastern far-north Queensland Region.
New Caledonia - Tropical Cyclone NIRAN update (ECHO 08 Mar 2021)Mon, 08 Mar 2021 14:31

  • On 5-6 March, the passage of Tropical Cyclone NIRAN over the Coral Sea, along the western coast of New Caledonia resulted in casualties.
  • As reported by media, one person was injured and up to 400 people were sheltered to accommodation centres in Nouméa (south-western Grande Terre). Several buildings, including one school, were damaged across Grande Terre and Loyalty Islands. About 39,000 houses experienced power outages and water shortage was reported in Marè Municipality (Loyalty Islands). 
  • Light to moderate rain is forecast over Loyalty Islands on 8-9 March.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Articles: 116 | About casualties: 1 | Last hour: 0

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Planète Le cyclone Niran a balayé la Nouvelle-Calédonie La Nouvelle-Ca ... Mon, 08 Mar 2021 12:45:00 +0100.

La Nouvelle-Calédonie a été balayée samedi 6 mars par les vents violents générés par le cyclone Niran, associés à de fortes pluies et une marée de tempête, causant d'importants dégâts. Une rafale à 189 km/h a été enregistrée à Nessadiou sur
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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),