Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000760
Name ELOISE-21
From - To 17 Jan - 23 Jan
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (23 Jan 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 139 km/h 2.2 m n.a. 1.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5
GFS 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5
ECMWF 104 km/h 2.3 m 907 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone ELOISE (ECHO 18 Jan 2021)Mon, 18 Jan 2021 02:00

  • Tropical Cyclone ELOISE formed over the Indian Ocean on 17 January and is moving west-south-west towards north-eastern Madagascar. On 18 January at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located 700 km north-east of Antalaha Commune (Sava Region), with maximum sustained wind of 83 km/h (tropical storm).
  • ELOISE is forecast to strengthen as it moves south-west, reaching the Masoala Peninsula (north-eastern Madagascar) in the evening of 19 January, with maximum sustained wind up to 110 km/h (tropical storm).
  • Heavy rainfall and strong wind are forecast over northern Madagascar from 19 January.
  • The weather system could reach the Mozambique Channel on 20 - 21 January, potentially impacting Mozambique's coast, according to the National Meteorological Institute of Mozambique (INAM). INAM continues to monitor the phenomenon and has called on the population to follow meteorological warnings issued by national authorities.
Madagascar, Mozambique - Tropical Cyclone ELOISE update (ECHO 19 Jan 2021)Tue, 19 Jan 2021 02:00

  • Tropical cyclone ELOISE is moving south-west over the Indian Ocean, approaching the north-eastern coast of Madagascar. On 18 January, its centre was located approximately 300 km north-east of Antalaha Commune (Sava Region), with maximum sustained wind of 93 km/h.
  • ELOISE is forecast to make landfall over the Masoala Peninsula, in an area south of Antalaha, in the evening of 19 January, with maximum sustained wind up to 95 km/h (tropical storm). After crossing northern Madagascar, ELOISE could enter the Mozambique Channel on 21 January, and move towards Mozambique, strengthening. 
  • In Madagascar, national authorities, and humanitarian partners are coordinating preparedness activities. 
  • Red alerts for imminent danger have been issued for several districts in Sava, Sofia and Analanjirofo Regions (north-eastern Madagascar). Strong wind and heavy rainfall are forecast over northern and central Madagascar from 19 January.
Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe - Tropical Cyclone ELOISE update (ECHO 20 Jan 2021)Wed, 20 Jan 2021 10:15

  • Tropical cyclone ELOISE made landfall close to the coastal town of Antalaha (south-eastern Antsiranana Province, northern Madagascar) on 19 January, with maximum sustained wind up to 95 km/h. 
  • ELOISE is forecast to continue south-west crossing the Provinces of Toamasina and Mahajanga (northern Madagascar) on 20-21 January. After that, it will strengthen moving across the Mozambique Channel and it could make landfall over southern Mozambique on 23-24 January.
  • National authorities and humanitarian partners are conducting response emergency mechanisms both in Madagascar and in Mozambique.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall and strong wind are forecast over most of central-northern Madagascar. Red alerts for imminent danger are in effect for several regions of north-eastern Madagascar. 
  • In Zimbabwe, the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) is monitoring progress of the storm, which may strengthen. Due to the significant amunt of rain that were recorded across most parts of the country during the first half of the season (October to December), the MSD has warned about the risk of flood-related disasters.
Madagascar, Mozambique - Tropical Cyclone ELOISE update Thu, 21 Jan 2021 02:00

  • After passing over northern Madagascar, Tropical Cyclone (TC) ELOISE has entered the Mozambique Channel. On 20 January at 18.00 UT, its center was located about 70 km north-west of Soalala Town (Boeny Region, north-western Madagascar), and 450 km east of the coast of Nampula Province (northern Mozambique), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (tropical storm).
  • As reported by UN OCHA, the passage of TC ELOISE in Madagascar has caused at least one fatality, more than 1,000 affected people, and at least 500 displaced individuals across Sava, Analanjirofo, and Atsinanana Regions. According to initial estimations, around 190 houses, and 100 classrooms have been damaged or destroyed by flooding.
  • TC ELOISE is forecast to strengthen, as it moves south-west over the Mozambique Channel, reaching the coast of central Mozambique (in an area between Sofala and Inhambane Provinces) on the evening of 22 January, with maximum sustained winds up to 170-190 km/h. Central Mozambique, and in particular Beira City, have been heavily affected by the passage of Tropical Cyclone IDAI in March 2019.
  • Response and evacuation operations are still ongoing in Madagascar, while in Mozambique, humanitarian partners and national authorities are coordinating preparedness and response tasks. 
  • Red warnings for heavy rainfall have been issued for the north-western Madagascar, and a red alert for tropical cyclone has been issued for coastal areas in Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Zambeza Provinces (Mozambique). 
  • Heavy rainfall with thunderstorms and strong winds are forecast over central-western and north-western Madagascar, and over northern, and central Mozambique on 21-22 January.
 
Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe - Tropical Cyclone ELOISE update (ECHO 22 Jan 2021)Fri, 22 Jan 2021 02:00

  • Tropical Cyclone (TC) ELOISE is moving south-west over the Mozambique Channel, towards the central coast of Mozambique and on 22 January at 6.00 UTC its centre was located about 350 km north-east of Beira City (Sofala Province, central Mozambique), with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h.
  • TC ELOISE is forecast to strengthen and to make landfall on the evening of 22 January over Beira City, in an area already affected by a TC in 2019.
  • In northern Madagascar, the passage of TC ELOISE caused at least one fatality, more than 1 000 affected people and about 190 damaged or destroyed houses. In Mozambique, pre-emptive evacuations were undertaken in Sofala Province, as reported by UN OCHA.
  • In Zimbabwe, some of the major rivers are expected to peak throughout the next week as a result of the fresh rainfall brought by the TC. Floods are expected across the border between Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
  • On 22-23 January, heavy rainfall, strong wind and storm surge could affect the areas from southern Nampula to Sofala Provinces of Mozambique. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast over north-western Madagascar.
Mozambique, Zimbabwe - Tropical cyclone ELOISE update (ECHO 25 Jan 2021)Mon, 25 Jan 2021 10:16

  • Tropical cyclone ELOISE made landfall over Sofala Province (central Mozambique) very close to Beira City on 23 January. After that, it crossed inland Mozambique and southeastern Zimbabwe on 23-24 January, resulting in casualties and widespread damage.
  • According to Mozambique's National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD), six people died, 12 injured, 8,363 have been displaced, at least 176,475 affected and more than 7,000 houses destroyed following heavy rain and widespread floods. The affected Provinces are Sofala, Zambezia, Inhambane and Manica.
  • In Zimbabwe, heavy rainfall and floods hit the Provinces of Manicaland, Mashonaland East and Central, Matabeleland South and Masvingo. At least three people died in Manicaland, and several people have been displaced across the country.
  • National Authorities and humanitarian partners are providing help for those affected.
  • For the next 24 hours moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast across southern Mozambique, most of Zimbabwe and northeastern South Africa. The Copernicus EMS was activated in rapid mapping mode () on 22 January, and two maps have been produced so far.
Southern Africa - Tropical Cyclone ELOISE update (ECHO 27 Jan 2021)Wed, 27 Jan 2021 02:00

  • After the passage of tropical cyclone ELOISE over southern Africa, at least 15 people died and more than 250, 000 people have been affected across Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, South Africa and Madagascar, as reported by UN OCHA.
  • In Mozambique, where ELOISE made landfall on 23 January, seven people were killed, at least 248,481 individuals have been affected, including 16,693 displaced people. Sofala Province is the worst affected area, with at least 16,967 destroyed or damaged houses.
  • In Zimbabwe, three people died and two fatalities occurred in Eswatini, where nearly 1,500 people were affected by the passage of ELOISE. One fatality and about 1,000 affected people were reported in Madagascar.
  • In South Africa, two fatalities were reported and search and rescue operations are ongoing for two missing people. According to South African authorities, the Gariep Dam, the biggest in the country, was spilling at 103.2%, as of 26 January.
  • On 27-29 January, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast over eastern South Africa, central Mozambique and Zimbabwe and north-western Madagascar.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

250000 personnes touchées par le cyclone Eloise au Mozambique 1/27/2021 3:41:00 AM.

NATIONS UNIES (AP) – Le cyclone Eloise a touché 250 000 personnes dans la ville portuaire de Beira et ses environs au Mozambique et a endommagé ou détruit 76 centres de santé et 400 salles de classe, a déclaré mardi un haut responsable de l
...(more)
Mozambique: 250.000 personnes sinistrées après le cyclone Eloïse (ONU) 1/27/2021 12:37:00 AM.

This handout picture released by UNICEF shows residents of the Praia Nova neighbourhood in Beira seeking shelter and protection as Cyclone Eloise hits the country, on January 23, 2021. - Tropical Cyclone Eloise made landfall around 2:30am o
...(more)
Thirteen dead, thousands homeless in southern Africa after storm Elois.. 1/27/2021 12:21:00 AM.

Johannesburg. The death toll from storm Eloise rose to at least 13 on Tuesday after heavy winds, rain and flooding destroyed buildings, drowned crops and displaced thousands in parts of southern Africa. Eloise weakened from a cyclone to a t
...(more)
Cyclone Eloïse : six morts et des milliers de personnes sans foyer au .. 1/26/2021 11:02:00 PM.

« Selon les chiffres préliminaires du gouvernement mozambicain, au moins six personnes ont été tuées, dont un enfant de moins de 2 ans, et douze ont été blessées », a déclaré lors d’un point de presse en visioconférence depuis Genève, Jens
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (6), EC-JRC (38), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),