Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HEROLD-20
in Mauritius, Madagascar

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone HEROLD-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000660
Name HEROLD-20
From - To 13 Mar - 19 Mar
Exposed countries Mauritius, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h Category 3
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Mar 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 56 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 205 km/h 0.7 m 1031 mm 0.5
GFS 184 km/h 0.6 m 920 mm 0.5
ECMWF 151 km/h 0.8 m 1026 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar, Mauritius, Rodrigues - Tropical Cyclone HEROLD (ECHO 17 Mar 2020)Tue, 17 Mar 2020 10:56

  • Following the passage of Tropical Cyclone HEROLD close to the north-east coast of Madagascar on 13-15 March, at least 4 people died in Sava region and approximately 3,200 people have been affected. More than 100 schools have been flooded.
  • On 16 March at 18.00 UTC, the cyclone's centre was approximately 360 km north-west of Mauritius, with maximum sustained winds of 148 km/h. HEROLD will move south-east passing close to Rodrigues Island (approximately 90 km south), bringing heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge.
Mauritius - Tropical Cyclone HEROLD update (ECHO 18 Mar 2020)Wed, 18 Mar 2020 10:54

  • Tropical cyclone HEROLD continued moving south-west over the Indian Ocean, passing approximately 130 km south of Rodrigues Island (Mauritius) on 17 March. Media reports that, as of 18 March, power outages and schools preventively closed across the island.
  • On 18 March at 6.00 UTC, cyclone's centre was located approximately 395 km south-west of Rodrigues, with maximum sustained winds up to 100 km/h (tropical storm). On the forecast track, HEROLD is forecast to continue moving south-west, as a tropical storm, weakening.
  • Over the next 24 hours, moderate rainfall could still affect Rodrigues. The Mauritius Meteorological Services has lifted the previous warning for cyclone over the island.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

NASA find Herold a fading ex-tropical cyclone 3/20/2020 5:48:00 PM.

IMAGE: On Mar. 20, 2020, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite provided a visible image ex-tropical cyclone Herold in the Southern Indian Ocean. Credit: Credit: NASA Worldview. Former Tropical Cyclone Herold is now
...(more)
NASA finds little strength left in Tropical Cyclone Herold 3/19/2020 4:36:00 PM.

IMAGE: On March 19, 2020, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua satellite gathered infrared data on Herold. MODIS showed minimal associated strong convection (rising air that forms the thunderstorms... Credit: NASA/NRL. Wind
...(more)
NASA analyzes tropical cyclone Herold's water vapor concentration 3/18/2020 8:38:00 PM.

Credit: Credits: NASA/NRL. When NASA's Aqua satellite passed over the Southern Indian Ocean on Mar. 18, it gathered water vapor data that showed wind shear was adversely affecting Tropical Cyclone Herold. In general, wind shear is a measure
...(more)
Météo : Retour d’un anticyclone à partir de lundi 3/18/2020 5:19:00 PM.

Des rafales de 130 km/h enregistrés à Plaine-Corail. Après le passage de Herold à Maurice, qui a causé une légère baisse de la température, le soleil a refait son apparition depuis hier. La chaleur a ainsi repris ses droits et la températur
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),