Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000639
Name BELNA-19
Glide number: TC-2019-000164-MDG
From - To 04 Dec - 11 Dec
Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h Category 3
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (09 Dec 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 56 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 212 km/h 0.5 m 661 mm 0.5
GFS 198 km/h 1 m 515 mm 1.5
ECMWF 144 km/h 0.8 m 530 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar, Mayotte, Comoros, Mozambique, La Reunion, Mauritius - Tropical Cyclones BELNA and AMBALI update (ECHO 06 Dec 2019)Fri, 06 Dec 2019 11:07

  • Tropical cyclone BELNA is strengthening as it moves southwest towards the Mozambique Channel. On 6 December at 6.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 470 km north of the northern coast of Madagascar with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h.
  • On 7-8 December, BELNA will continue south-west across the Mozambique Channel passing between Madagascar and Mayotte, after that, on 8 December evening it will make landfall in the north-western coast of Madagascar close to Soalala Town (Soalala District, Boeny Region).
  • Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone AMBALI, formed over south-western Indian Ocean on 2 December, is moving south-west offshore toward Mauritius. On 6 December at 0.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 1,200 km north-east of Mauritius with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h. On the forecast track, AMBALI will continue moving south-west, weakening.
  • For the next 48 hours, heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are expected in northern Madagascar, north-eastern Mozambique, Mayotte and Comoros while moderate rain is forecast over Mauritius and La Reunion.
Madagascar, Mayotte, Comoros, French Southern Territories - Tropical Cyclone BELNA update (ECHO 09 Dec 2019)Mon, 09 Dec 2019 11:09

  • Tropical Cyclone BELNA continued moving south over the Mozambique Channel passing between the Glorioso Islands and Mayotte, with maximum sustained winds up to 165 km/h. On 9 December at 6:00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 155 km north of Soalala and approximately 135 km north-west of Mahajanga, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h.
  • BELNA is forecast to make landfall over the Soalala on 9 December late in the afternoon (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 120 km/h. It is forecast to move southand weaken.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms are forecast over most of Madagascar as well as Mayotte.
Madagascar, Mayotte - Tropical Cyclone BELNA update (ECHO 10 Dec 2019)Tue, 10 Dec 2019 11:10

  • Tropical Cyclone BELNA made landfall over Soalala District (Boeny Region, west of Madagascar) on 9 November with maximum sustained winds up to 140 km/h. On 10 December at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 30 km north of Antsalova Town (Melaky Region), with maximum sustained winds up to 110 km/h.
  • BELNA will move inland across western and central Madagascar, weakening to a tropical depression on 11 December before dissipating.
  • Schools along the west coast of Madagascar have been closed. Emergency teams from national authorities and international partners have been deployed to Boeny Region and to Mayotte Island, were the passage BELNA brought heavy rain.
  • Heavy rain will continue to affect central-western Madagascar over 10-11 December, while moderate rain is forecast over Mayotte.
  • The European Commission's Copernicus emergency satellite mapping service (EMSR415) was activated on 8 December for Mayotte Island, producing  satellite maps for 5 eastern areas.
Madagascar-Tropical Cyclone BELNA (ECHO 11 Dec 2019)Wed, 11 Dec 2019 11:07

  • After Tropical Cyclone BELNA's passage over Soalala District (Boeny Region, west of Madagascar), 2 have died and at least 3 people are missing.
  • More than 14,000 people have been displaced in Soalala, while other 170 have been evacuated to sites in Mahajanga District. Buildings and infrastructure are damaged, including a protective dyke, which caused flooding in Soalala. Various government authorities and international partners are currently responding with food and relief items to assist the affected population.
  • BELNA is moving across central-southern Madagascar with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h but is forecast to weaken and dissipate this afternoon.
  • Heavy rain will continue to affect most of Madagascar over 11-13 December.
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone BELNA update (ECHO 12 Dec 2019)Thu, 12 Dec 2019 11:01

  • Following Tropical Cyclone BELNA's passage over Soalala District (Boeny Region) on 9 November, 1 person is dead, 2 people are missing and 2,693 have been injured. The most affected regions are Boeny, Diana and Melaky.
  • According to the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management, 2,352 people have been displaced as a result, 12 houses have been destroyed, 650 damaged and 55 flooded.
  • National authorities and NGOs are planning to provide food and non-food items to those affected.
  • For the next 24 hours, heavy rain is forecast across central and eastern Madagascar.
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone BELNA update (ECHO 13 Dec 2019)Fri, 13 Dec 2019 10:58

  • 2 people are dead and 3 p are still missing in Soalala District following Tropical Cyclone BELNA's passage on 9 December. Approximately 1,570 people are displaced (1,440 in Soalala District and 170 in Mahajanga District) and a number of buildings damaged as well as a protective sea dyke in Soalala. 55 buildings were damaged in Diana Region and 22 in Melaky Region.
  • Over the next 24 hours, more heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern Madagascar.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Accèdez aux articles de la rubrique Monde 12/15/2019 5:22:00 AM.

Le président américain se rapproche de la procédure de destitution. Donald Trump et ses partisans dénoncent une "mascarade" et un "coup monté". L'ancien chef de gouvernement d'Abdelaziz Bouteflika, âgé de 74 ans, a été élu dès le premier
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Accèdez aux articles de la rubrique Monde 12/15/2019 5:05:00 AM.

Le président américain se rapproche de la procédure de destitution. Donald Trump et ses partisans dénoncent une "mascarade" et un "coup monté". L'ancien chef de gouvernement d'Abdelaziz Bouteflika, âgé de 74 ans, a été élu dès le premier
...(more)
Accèdez aux articles de la rubrique Monde 12/15/2019 4:41:00 AM.

Le président américain se rapproche de la procédure de destitution. Donald Trump et ses partisans dénoncent une "mascarade" et un "coup monté". L'ancien chef de gouvernement d'Abdelaziz Bouteflika, âgé de 74 ans, a été élu dès le premier
...(more)
Accèdez aux articles de la rubrique Monde 12/15/2019 4:17:00 AM.

Le président américain se rapproche de la procédure de destitution. Donald Trump et ses partisans dénoncent une "mascarade" et un "coup monté". L'ancien chef de gouvernement d'Abdelaziz Bouteflika, âgé de 74 ans, a été élu dès le premier
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (2), EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),