Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENZO-19
in Portugal, Ireland, United Kingdom,

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone LORENZO-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000608
Name LORENZO-19
From - To 23 Sep - 02 Oct
Exposed countries Portugal, Ireland, United Kingdom,
Exposed population 2.7 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 259 km/h, Category 5
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (03 Oct 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Portugal)

GDACS Score

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+ Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS 259 km/h 2.4 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS 216 km/h 1.1 m 375 mm 0.5
ECMWF 155 km/h 1.1 m 918 mm 0.5
Beta Version - All weather systems in the area: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Ireland, United Kingdom - Extra-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO update (ECHO 04 Oct 2019)Fri, 04 Oct 2019 13:09

  • Extra-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO passed over Donegal and Northern Ireland late in the evening of 3 October. It is now moving across the Irish Sea towards northern Wales and south Liverpool.
  • Schools are closed in Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick and several flights were canceled in Dublin airport.
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge is forecast over central-east Ireland as well as heavy rain and strong winds over northern Wales, central England and southern Scotland.
Portugal (Azores), Ireland - Tropical Cyclone LORENZO update (ECHO 02 Oct 2019)Wed, 02 Oct 2019 13:03

  • Tropical Cyclone LORENZO continued north-east over the North Atlantic Ocean toward Flores and Corvo Islands (western Azores, Portugal). On 2 October at 3.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 125 km west-southwest of Flores, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (Category 2 hurricane).
  • According to media reports, local authorities have ordered schools and government offices to close as a precaution, and numerous roads are already closed.
  • LORENZO is expected to pass very close to Flores and Corvo (approximately 80 km west) on 2 October in the morning (UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 140-155 km/h before weakening to Category 1 as it approaches the west coast of Ireland on 4 October with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h.
  • A hurricane warning is in effect for central and western Azores as well as a tropical storm warning for eastern Azores.
Portugal (Azores) - Tropical Cyclone LORENZO update (ECHO 01 Oct 2019)Tue, 01 Oct 2019 13:07

  • Tropical Cyclone LORENZO continued north-east over the North Atlantic Ocean toward the Azores. On 1 October at 3.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 1,200 km south-west of Flores Island, with maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h (Category 2 hurricane).
  • LORENZO is forecast to continue north-east and to pass approximatley 70km east of Flores Island early on 2 October, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (Category 2).
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the Azores, particularly over central and western islands for 1-2 October. An hurricane warning is in effect for central and western Azores, as well as a tropical storm warning for eastern Azores.
Portugal (Azores) - Tropical Cyclone LORENZO (ECHO 30 Sep 2019)Mon, 30 Sep 2019 13:08

  • Tropical Cyclone LORENZO continued north-northeast over the North Atlantic Ocean. On 30 September at 3.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 1,850 km south-west of the Azores (Portugal), with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (Category 2 hurricane).
  • LORENZO should pass very close to Flores Island on 2 October with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (Category 2 hurricane).
  • A hurricane watch is in effect for central and western Azores as well as a tropical storm watch for eastern Azores.
  • Regional Civil Protection Services have put in place measures to cope, including by strengthening their operational response.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2015. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

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Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (2), JRC (56), (2), BOM (1), JTWC (1), NASA (1), NOAA (1), OCHA (1), TRMM (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),