Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DORIAN-19
in Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone DORIAN-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000588
Name DORIAN-19
Glide number: TC-2019-000099-BHS
From - To 24 Aug - 09 Sep
Exposed countries Canada, United States, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, U.S., British, Puerto Rico, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Haiti, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Exposed population 2.7 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 296 km/h Category 5
Maximum storm surge 2 m (06 Sep 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (The Bahamas)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 93 km/h 2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 288 km/h 5.7 m 2295 mm 1.5
GFS 194 km/h 1.6 m 1655 mm 0.5
ECMWF 169 km/h 2.9 m 1617 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Lesser Antilles - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 27 Aug 2019)Tue, 27 Aug 2019 13:03

  • Tropical Cyclone DORIAN's centre was approximately 7 km west of Barbados and 145 km south-east of St. Lucia on 27 August at 3.00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 83 km/h.
  • DORIAN is expected to strengthen slightly as it passes over St. Lucia before continuing north-west towards Puerto Rico later in the afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 110-120 km/h.
  • Heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge are forecast over Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, and Grenada over the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge could also affect Puerto Rico and St. Croix.
  • A hurricane watch is in effect for St. Lucia, and a tropical storm warning for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The Caribbean, Bahamas, USA - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 29 Aug 2019)Thu, 29 Aug 2019 13:11

  • Tropical Cyclone DORIAN continued north-west, passing over the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico on the afternoon of 28 August, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h. On 29 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 130 km north of San Juan (Puerto Rico) and approximately 560 km south-east of Turks and Caicos Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 139 km/h. 
  • The risk of heavy rain and storm surge is increasing in the Bahamas and Turk and Caicos with maximum sustained winds of 139 km/h as well as in the north-east Dominican Republic. It could reach the east of Florida on 2 September, with maximum sustained winds up to 180 km/h.
Bahamas, USA - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 30 Aug 2019)Fri, 30 Aug 2019 13:12

  • Tropical Cyclone DORIAN's centre on 30 August at 3.00 UTC was approximately 900 km east-southeast of Nassau (Bahamas) and approximately 1,100 km esouth-east of West Palm Beach (Florida, USA), with maximum sustained winds of 167 km/h.
  • DORIAN is forecast to approach the Abaco Islands (northern Bahamas) on 1 September, with maximum sustained winds of 210-220 km/h and the south-eastern Florida coast on 3 September, with maximum sustained winds up to 220 km/h.
  • Heavy rain is forecast over the central and northern Bahamas and coastal Florida and Georgia from 30 August - 2 September.
  • A state of emergency has been declared in parts of Florida and Georgia.
DORIAN-19 - Copernicus EMS activation (EMSR385)Sun, 01 Sep 2019 12:45

EMSR385: Copernicus Emergency Management Service has been activated
The Bahamas, USA - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 02 Sep 2019)Mon, 02 Sep 2019 13:07

  • Tropical Cyclone DORIAN passed over the Abaco islands (northern Bahamas) on 1 September as a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 295 km/h. On 2 September at 3.00 UTC, its centre was over Grand Bahama Island with maximum sustained winds of 285 km/h.
  • Parts of Marsh Harbour are flooded, and power and water outages reported.
  • DORIAN is forecast to pass close to east Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, continuing towards the Georgian and South Carolina coast, as a Category 3 hurricane. 
  • A storm surge warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Brevard County and a hurricane warning for the north-west Bahamas and east coast Florida.
  • Mandatory evacuation notices have been issued for coastal areas of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, and a state of emergency declared for coastal Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
  • The European Commission's Copernicus emergency satelite mapping service was activated on 1 September at 8.12 UTC to provide satellite maps for the Abaco Islands.
The Bahamas, USA - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN (ECHO 03 Sep 2019)Tue, 03 Sep 2019 13:03

  • On 3 September at 3.00 UTC, Tropical Cyclone Dorian's centre was 40 km north-northeast of Freeport City and 150 km east of West Palm Beach (Florida), with maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h.
  • According to UN OCHA, at least 5 people died and 13,000 homes were destroyed or damaged across the Abacos and Grand Bahama. 21 people were injured, power, water and roads affected and Grand Bahama, Abacos, Bimini and Nassau airports closed.
  • DORIAN will weaken to a category 3 hurricane as it passes the east coast of Florida before further weakening to a category 2 along coastal Georgia, South Carolina and southern North Carolina.
  • A storm surge warning is in effect for West Palm Beach (Florida), north and central Georgia and a hurricane warning for the Abacos, Grand Bahama and Jacksonville (Florida).
  • A state of emergency has been declared the South and North Carolinas, Florida and Georgia and mandatory evacuation orders are in effect for Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
  • The European Commission's Copernicus emergency satelite mapping service has been activated (EMSR385) to map the affected areas. 
USA, The Bahamas - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 05 Sep 2019)Wed, 04 Sep 2019 13:06

  • On 4 september at 3.00 UTC Tropical Cyclone DORIAN's centre was approximately 150 km east of Cape Canaveral (Florida), with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h.
  • In Grand Bahama and the Abacos, media report 7 fatalities. According to the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC), more than 13,250 houses are destroyed or severely damaged, and around 62,700 people are in need of fresh water. 34 shelters have been established across the islands.
  • DORIAN is forecast to continue north and north-east along the Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts as a Category 2 hurricane.
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge will affect coastal areas of Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas over 4-6 September, as well as heavy rain in the northern Bahamas.
  • Storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect for north West Palm Beach (Florida) and southern North Carolina.
  • The European Commission's Copernicus emergency mapping service was activated on 1 September and 2 first estimates have already been produced of the affected areas.
USA, The Bahamas - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update Thu, 05 Sep 2019 13:05

  • DORIAN passed 140-150 km east of Florida on 4 September as a Category 2 hurricane. On 5 September at 3.00 UTC, its centre was 155 km east of Georgia's central coast, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (Category 3 hurricane).
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are affecting the coast of central Florida, north and central South Carolina.
  • At least 20 fatalities have been reported in the Bahamas, 17 in the Abacos and 3 in Grand Bahama. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), more than 76,000 people were affected and are in need of immediate humanitarian relief. Power outages have been reported across Florida's east coast.
  • On 4 September, the Bahamas requested assistance through the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism to respond to DORIAN, which has devastated the country.
  • DORIAN will continue north-northeast, off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane before turning north-east on 6 September, weakening slightly as it approaches the North Carolina coast as a Category 2 hurricane.
  • A DG ECHO humanitarian expert deployed to the Bahamas on 5 September.
USA, The Bahamas - Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 06 Sep 2019)Fri, 06 Sep 2019 13:09

  • DORIAN continued north-east off the coast of northern Georgia and South Carolina, slighty weakening. On 6 September at 3.00 UTC, its centre was approximately 50 km south-east of Wilmington (North Carolina), with maximum sustained winds of 157 km/h (Category 2 hurricane).
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are affecting the coastal area of the Carolinas.
  • According to the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, 30 deaths were reported in the Abacos and Grand Bahama, more than 76,200 people are affected and 2,000 sheltering in Marsh Harbour area. 60% of homes in norther Abaco were destroyed or severely damaged.
  • In the United States, media report 2 deaths in Florida and 2 in North Carolina. More than 250,000 people are without power across the Carolinas.
  • DORIAN will pass very close to Pamlico Sound (North Carolina) as a Category 1 before moving off the coast of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, the New England, and the Nova Scotia Island on 7-8 September.
  • Heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over coastal areas from North Carolina and Massachusetts on 6-8 September.
The Bahamas -Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 10 Sep 2019)Tue, 10 Sep 2019 13:04

  • The number of fatalities following Tropical Cyclone DORIAN's passage in The Bahamas has reached 45, including 37 in Abaco and 8 in Grand Bahama.
  • Most Abaco residents have evacuated to New Providence Island, while shelters in Nassau City are at maximum capacity, as reported by U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance. Various government authorities and humanitarian partners are assisting the affected population with food and relief kits.
  • The EU Civil Protection Mechanism was activated on 4 September following a request from the Bahamian government and relief, logistics and communications support are being sent by The Netherlands and Luxembourg. 2 Liaison Officers from the EU's Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) are deploying to the islands in the coming days to coordinate the incoming assistance. DG ECHO has allocated €500,000 to assist with immediate response efforts. A DG ECHO humanitarian expert is already in Nassau. 
  • The European Commission’s Copernicus emergency satellite mapping service was activated for the affected area.
The Bahamas -Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 11 Sep 2019)Wed, 11 Sep 2019 12:58

  • The number of fatalities following Tropical Cyclone Dorian's devastating passage over the Bahamas stands at 45 but the number is expected to rise as search and rescue operations continue.
  • Humanitarian relief efforts continue to focus on Grand Bahama and the Abacos where approximately 3,300 are in shelters, while 4,800 people are sheltering in the capital Nassau.
  • The Bahamas requested assistance from the EU Civil Protection Mechanism on 4 September and 2 ERCC Liaison Officers are arriving in Nassau. 2 Dutch vessels with significant logistical and technical capacity as well as relief items and a satellite communications team from Luxembourg have been sent to Nassau to contribute to the response. 
  • A DG ECHO humanitarian expert is in Nassau participating in the needs assessment. The European Commission allocated €500,000 in humanitarian funding to immediate response efforts.
  • The Copernicus emergency satellite mapping service was activated for the affected area (EMSR385) and several grading maps to assess the damage have been produced so far.
The Bahamas -Tropical Cyclone DORIAN (ECHO 12 Sep 2019)Thu, 12 Sep 2019 13:03

  • The death toll following Tropical Cyclone DORIAN's impact on the Abacos and Grand Bahama have increased to 50 according to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), as of 10 September, 42 in the Abacos and 8 in Grand Bahama. The government also announced on 11 September that 2,500 people have been reported missing. The National Emergency Management Agency has registered 4,800 evacuees in Nassau, 2,043 of whom are sheltering in six shelters. 
  • Following activation of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism on 4 September, a satellite communications team from Luxembourg and two Dutch vessels with a cargo of two helicopters, trucks and relief goods, accompanied by 650 marines, arrived in Nassau on 10 and 11 September. A liaison officer from the Emergency Response Coordination Centre is also in country, coordinating with the national authorities and the teams from the Netherlands and Luxembourg.
  • A DG ECHO humanitarian expert is contributing to the humanitarian needs assessment and the EU mobilised €500,000 in humanitarian aid funding. Approximately 15,000 people are considered in need of assistance. 
The Bahamas, USA -Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update and Tropical Cyclone NINE (ECHO 13 Sep 2019)Fri, 13 Sep 2019 13:09

  • Search and rescue operations are ongoing on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama following Tropical Cyclone Dorian's passage. 50 are confirmed dead and 2,500 people have been reported missing. Immediate food needs are being largely met by private individuals, local organisations and the WFP.
  • A liaison officer from the EU's Emergency Response Coordination Centre is now in Marsh Harbour, together with the team from the Dutch vessels mobilised through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, while the satellite communications team from Luxembourg are supporting the emergency operations centre in Freeport. DG ECHO's humanitarian experts are assessing the humanitarian situation of evacuees housed in displacement centres.
  • A new tropical cyclone NINE is forming over the south-east Bahamas and is currently located approximately 310 km south-east of Nassau.
  • Heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over the central and north-west Bahamas, the Florida peninsula and south-east Georgia.
  • A tropical storm warning is in effect for the north-west Bahamas and a tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of the Florida coast.
The Bahamas -Tropical Cyclone DORIAN update (ECHO 16 Sep 2019)Mon, 16 Sep 2019 13:07

  • The death toll in the Bahamas following Tropical Cyclone DORIAN stands at 50, but the number is expected to rise.
  • According to UN OCHA, as of 15 September, more than 1,300 people are missing and 2,100 are in temporary shelters. The national authorities have established 13 shelters in New Providence, 6 in Grand Bahama and 1 in Abaco.
  • Following a request for assistance from The Bahamas to the on 4 September, two Dutch vessels and a team from Luxembourg are providing emergency relief, logistical and communications assistance, inlcuding repairing critical infrastructure. 
  • Two liasion officers from the and an ECHO humanitarian expert are coordinating with the national authorities in conducting assessments and assisting the teams working on the ground. 
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Tropical storm warning issued for Bahamas; 1,300 still missing 9/13/2019 2:55:00 AM.

(Adds comments from aid groups) By Zach Fagenson. NASSAU, Sept 12 (Reuters) - A tropical cyclone was forecast to move across the northwestern Bahamas in the coming days, potentially bringing more rain and wind to islands already devastated
...(more)
REUTERS - UPDATE 3-Tropical storm warning issued for Bahamas; 1,300 st.. 9/13/2019 2:51:00 AM.

UPDATE 3-Tropical storm warning issued for Bahamas; 1,300 still missing. (Adds comments from aid groups) By Zach Fagenson NASSAU, Sept 12 (Reuters) - A tropical cyclone was forecast to move across the northwestern Bahamas in the coming d
...(more)
4 days in Bahamas: Vic Micolucci visits devastated islands 32 Mins Aft.. 9/13/2019 2:35:00 AM.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - After 11 days, the death toll since Hurricane Dorian devastated the Bahamas as a Category 5 storm remains at 50, but more than 1,000 people are missing. News4Jax spent four days on the ground in the hardest hit areas in
...(more)
Hurricane Center sees storm reaching Florida this weekend 33 Mins Afte.. 9/13/2019 2:35:00 AM.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - After what the Bahamas just endured with Hurricane Dorian, all eyes are keeping watch on what the National Hurricane Center just upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. The NHC's forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclon
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Analytical products

Hurricane DORIAN - JRC Emergency Report

03/Sep/2019 08:33 UTC

Hurricane DORIAN is moving over the Atlantic Ocean towards the Bahamas and USA, strengthening. On 30 August at 09:00 UTC, its center is located approximately 800 km South-East of Nassau (Bahamas) and 1100 km south-east of West Palm Beach (Florida, USA). According to the latest forecast, it could move across the north-western Bahamas on 1-2 September and reach the south-eastern coast of Florida on 3 September morning (UTC), as a Major Hurricane (most probably as a Category 4 Hurricane, with max. sustained winds up to 210-220 km/h). The precise landfall location in Florida is not yet known exactly as there is still a large uncertainty on the forecast track and intensity. Based on the last forecast, strong winds (up to 220 km/h), heavy rainfall and storm surge (up to 2.2m) could affect north-western Bahamas and south-eastern Florida state (USA) during its passage. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) is following the event through the information automatically collected and analysed in the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS). GDACS issued a RED alert for TC DORIAN in the USA and Bahamas on 30 August.

Hurricane DORIAN - Update1

02/Sep/2019 16:54 UTC

As of 02 Sept at 15 UTC, the Hurricane DORIAN is moving slowly through the north-western Bahamas as a devastating Category 5 Hurricane , with very strong winds , large storm surge and very heavy rainfall . On 02 Sep at 09:00 UTC, its center is located near Freeport (Grand Bahama) and had max. sustained winds of 270 km/h. Its slow movement tends to increase the impact on the Bahamas islands. According to the latest forecast, its centre could leave the Bahamas on 3 September morning (UTC) and move close to the coast of south-eastern USA (Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina) on 3-6 September, still as an intense Hurricane. The track uncertainty is still large, but it should be noted that although the eye is currently predicted to remain over the sea, the effects of DORIAN could be widely felt along the south-eastern coast of the USA. Based on this forecast, very strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge could still affect north-western Bahamas on 2-3 September, and south-eastern USA on 3-6 September. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) is following the event through the information automatically collected and analysed in the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) and by creating dedicated Emergency Reports. GDACS issued a RED alert for TC DORIAN in the USA and Bahamas on 30 August.

Daily Maps:

13/Sep/2019 05:40 UTC

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (2), UNOSAT (1), EC-JRC (38), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),