Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000523
Name WILLA-18
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
From - To 20 Oct - 24 Oct
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (24 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 37 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 269 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
GFS 172 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
ECMWF 113 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico - Tropical Cyclone WILLA update (ECHO 25 Oct 2018)Thu, 25 Oct 2018 12:48

  • Hurricane WILLA made landfall near Isla del Bosque village (Escuinapa Municipality, Sinaloa State) on 24 October. As of 25 October at 7.30 UTC, more than 4 000 people have been temporarily evacuated, a hospital has been damaged and there have been power outages in Escuinapa Municipality.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds could affect Sinaloa, Nayarit and Durango States.
  • Copernicus, the EU's emergency satellite mapping service was activated on 23 October for Nayarit and Sinaloa States and three delineation maps have been produced so far.
Mexico - Tropical Cyclone WILLA update (ECHO 24 Oct 2018)Wed, 24 Oct 2018 12:59

  • Tropical cyclone WILLA made landfall near Isla del Bosque village (Sinaloa State) early on 24 October (UTC) with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h (Category 3 hurricane). Very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are affecting the coast of south-western Mexico (southern Sinaloa, western Nayarit and western Jalisco States). On 24 October at 3.00 UTC its centre was located inland approx. 125 km south-west of Durango (Durango State), with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (Category 3 hurricane).
  • Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to continue north-east over western Mexico, significantly weakening and dissipating. Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge could affect coastal areas. Heavy rainfall could also affect southern Durango State.
  • A hurricane warning remains in effect from San Blas to Mazatlan.
  • According to media reports, as of 24 October at 7.30 UTC, there have been power-cuts in affected coastal areas and flights from Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlán have been cancelled.
  • Copernicus, the EU's rapid mapping service, was activated on 23 October at 16.49 UTC, for Nayarit and Sinaloa States.
Mexico - Tropical cyclone WILLA and VICENTE update (ECHO 23 Oct 2018)Tue, 23 Oct 2018 12:59

  • Tropical cyclone WILLA continued toward the coast of southern Mexico, strengthening. On 23 October at 3.00 UTC its centre was located approx. 125 km south-west of the Islas Marias (Nayarit State) and 310 km south-south-west of Mazatlán town (Sinaloa State), with maximum sustained winds of 231 km/h (equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane). On 21 October, the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) issued a RED alert for WILLA for 23 October.
  • WILLA is forecast to pass over the Islas Marias as an intense major hurricane, before making landfall between Mazatlán (Sinaloa State) and San Blas (Nayarit) on 23 October evening as a Category 2 hurricane. It will weaken to a tropical depression as it moves inland on 24 October.
  • Meanwhile, tropical cyclone VICENTE continued west-north-west along the coast of southern Mexico, as a tropical storm. On 23 October at 3.00 UTC its centre was located approx. 220 km south-east of the coast of Michoacán State, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h.
  • VICENTE is forecast to make landfall as a tropical depression on 23 October afternoon - at the same time as WILLA - over the coast of Michoacán State, approx. 590 km south-east of WILLA's projected landfall.
  • Very strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge could affect several areas of south-western, central and north-eastern Mexico, especially Nayarit (including Islas Marias), Jalisco and Sinaloa States on 23-24 October. Around five million people could be exposed to heavy rain and winds, and over 100 000 could be directly affected.
Mexico - Tropical cyclone WILLA (ECHO 22 Oct 2018)Mon, 22 Oct 2018 13:00

  • Tropical cyclone WILLA formed over the Eastern Pacific Ocean on 20 October and started moving north-north-west, off the coast of southern Mexico, strengthening. On 22 October at 3.00 UTC its centre was located approximately 385 km south-west of Puerto Vallarta (Jalisco State, Mexico) and 530 km south-west of Novillero town (Nayarit State, Mexico), with maximum sustained winds of 231 km/h (equivalent to Category 4 in the Saffir Simpson Scale).
  • Over the next 24 hours, it is forecast to move north toward the Bahía de Banderas (Nayarit and Jalisco States) and may reach the Islas Marias (Nayarit State) on 23 October as a Category 4 hurricane. It may continue to Nayarit and coastal areas of northern Jalisco States on 24 October as a Category 3 hurricane.
  • Heavy rain, strong wind and storm surge could affect western Jalisco, western Nayarit and southern Sinaloa States (Mexico) on 23-24 October.
  • As of 22 October, a hurricane warning is in effect from San Blas (Nayarit State) to Mazatlan (Sinaloa State), including the Islas Marias.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Analytical products

Tropical Cyclones WILLA and VICENTE - JRC Emergency Report

22/Oct/2018 13:20 UTC

Two Tropical Cyclone systems are active in the eastern North Pacific ( WILLA and VICENTE ) and are moving towards the coast of Mexico. In this report, an analysis of the possible impact of these two TCs is presented. WILLA is currently a Category 5 Hurricane and is forecast to reach the Islas Marias and the coast of Nayarit / Sinaloa States (Mexico) on 23 October afternoon/evening (UTC), as a dangerous Category 4 (max. sustained winds up to 250 km/h). In the meantime, a Tropical Storm, VICENTE, is moving off the coast of south-western Mexico, and is forecast to reach the coast of Jalisco/Colima (approx. 400 km south of the landfall area of WILLA) at the same time of the landfall of WILLA. Very strong winds, heavy rainfall (risk of flash floods and landslides) and storm surge could affect several areas of south-western, central and north-eastern Mexico, during the passage of WILLA, especially the states of Nayarit , including Islas Marias , Jalisco and Sinaloa on 23-24 October. In addition, VICENTE could produce additional rainfall that could worsen the situation. Preparedness actions are taking place, as local authorities closed the schools by today 22 Oct in several municipalities of the state of Sinaloa and the national civil protection provided on 22 Oct at 05:00 local time, a “GREEN” alert for specific areas of Isla Marías, Sinaloa, Nayarit and Jalisco and “BLUE” for further surrounding areas. The Joint Research Centre (JRC) is following the event through the information automatically collected and analysed in the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS). GDACS issued a RED alert for TC WILLA on 21 October and a Green Alert for VICENTE.

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EMSR (2), EC-JRC (38), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),