Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for HELENE-24
in United States, Mexico, Belize

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone HELENE-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001101
Name HELENE-24
Glide number: TC-2024-000176-USA
From - To 23 Sep - 27 Sep
Exposed countries United States, Mexico, Belize
Exposed population 5.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 3.7 m (27 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 222 km/h 3.7 m n.a. 2.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 212 km/h 3.5 m 550 mm 0.5
GFS 155 km/h 3.3 m 1448 mm 0.5
ECMWF 180 km/h 3.3 m 1194 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico, Cuba, United States - Tropical cyclone HELENE (ECHO 27 Sep 2024)Wed, 25 Sep 2024 09:32

  • A new tropical cyclone named HELENE formed over the central-western Caribbean Sea on 23 September in the afternoon (UTC) and started moving north toward the Yucatán channel, between eastern Mexico and western Cuba, strenghtening. On 25 September at 6.00 UTC its centre was located over the sea in the Yucatán channel, approximately 100 km south-east of the Cancun city area, Mexico and around 1,000 km south of the Florida panhandle, north-western Florida, USA, with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h (tropical storm).
  • HELENE is expected to continue northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on 25-26 September, further strenghtening, with maximum sustained winds up to 167 km/h (category 2 hurricane). After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the Florida panhandle area on 27 September very early in the morning, with maximum sustained winds up to 194 km/h (category 3 hurricane).
  • Over the next 72 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over the Yucatán peninsula (Mexico), most of Cuba and the whole Florida (USA). NOAA issued hurricane warnings over these areas in Mexico and Florida.
Mexico, Belize, Cuba, United States - Hurricane HELENE (ECHO 27 Sep 2024)Thu, 26 Sep 2024 10:31

  • Hurricane HELENE passed over the Yucatán channel on 25 September as a hurricane (category 1) and is moving in the Gulf of Mexico towards northern Florida. On 26 September at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 620 km south-west of Tampa city, Florida, southern USA with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h.
  • Following its passage close to the Yucatan peninsula, floods and damage have been recorded in the Cancun city area while multiple counties in Florida are under mandatory evacuations considering its future landfall over the state.
  • HELENE will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and cross the Florida Big Bend coast on 26 September. After landfall, HELENE is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on 27-28 September.
  • For the next 48 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over Belize, the Yucatán peninsula, Mexico, most of Cuba, and the whole of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, USA.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Punta Gorda ferme ses bureaux et supprime la collecte des déchets 9/27/2024 1:05:00 AM.

IL EST PRÉVU RESTER À ENVIRON 102 150 MILLES AU LARGE DE NOS CÔTES. Je veux prendre un moment pour vous expliquer la chronologie et les impacts, d’accord ? ALORS, QU’ALLEZ-VOUS VOIR DANS VOTRE QUARTIER ? NOUS AVONS UN COMTÉ PAR COMTÉ. Regar
...(more)
TRACKING HELENE: Storm maintains Cat. 3 status; Tornado watch in effec.. 9/26/2024 10:24:00 PM.

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCSC) - Tropical storm force winds have begun battering northwestern Florida as Hurricane Helene prepares to make landfall. Forecasters warn that the enormous storm could create a “nightmare” surge along the coast and chur
...(more)
TRACKING HELENE: Tornado watch in effect for most of Lowcountry 9/26/2024 1:16:00 PM.

to download the free Live 5 First Alert Weather app. The tornado watch includes Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester, Beaufort, Colleton, Orangeburg, Jasper, Hampton, Bamberg, Barnwell, Aiken, Allendale, Caloun, Clarendon and Edgefield Counties
...(more)
Temps In The 80s On Thursday, Hurricane Helene Ramps Up In Florida 9/26/2024 1:14:00 PM.

Oklahoma Weather Forecast: Bookmark this page and refresh it often for the latest forecast and daily updates. Thursday, September 26th 2024, 7:38 am. By: News 9 The remainder of this week is warm and quiet across Oklahoma, with sunny skies
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),