Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for JOHN-24
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 270235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

The convection near the center of John has weakened significantly
over the past 12 hours. A curved band off to the southwest and west
of John's center is producing a continuous large area of deep
convection. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, but the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49 to 56 kt. Since the convection
over the center has warmed on infrared imagery and appears to be
less organized over the past 12 hours, the initial intensity is
being lowered to 60 kt for this advisory.

John has been moving northwestward, or 315/4 kt, which is a bit
faster than before. This slow motion is forecast to continue for
another 12 to 24 h, as John moves near the coastline or just inland
late tonight and early tomorrow. After that, a turn to the
west-northwest with some acceleration is forecast, if John survives
its interaction with the higher topography in this part of Mexico.
The latest track forecast is a little to the left and slightly
faster than the previous forecast, and is very near the lastest HCCA
corrected consensus aid.

It seems unlikely that John will be able to restrengthen since the
center is now just 20 miles from the coastline and is forecast to
move even closer to the coast over the next several hours. Since
John's core has been disrupted by the topography today, it is
unlikely to recover, despite relatively favorable environmental
conditions. Little change in strength, or perhaps slow weakening,
is likely over the next 12 hours until the center reaches the
coastline. Thereafter, faster weakening is expected on Friday as the
center moves near or along the coastline. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance suite. It is
quite possible that John could weaken to a remnant low and dissipate
sooner than forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions
across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 103.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 270233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.2W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 330SE 300SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 103.2W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 103.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 108.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 103.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 270234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
MICHOACAN...
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 103.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo has been
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 103.2 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through early Friday morning. On the forecast
track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the
coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight or early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight, with faster
weakening forecast on Friday while the center interacts more with
the topography of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of the Mexican
States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the Mexican
states of Colima and western Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding near
and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across
coastal portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area through Friday
afternoon.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through Friday
night or Saturday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip
currents. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262353
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...CENTER OF JOHN JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
MICHOACAN...
...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 103.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Zihuatanejo has
been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Zihuatanejo
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 103.0 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 3 mph (5 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of
southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. John is expected to remain a hurricane until the center
reaches the coast tonight. John is forecast to begin weakening
quickly on Friday as the center moves along the coast or just
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the
Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
Hurricane Warning area later tonight into early Friday. Winds to
tropical storm strength are already ongoing along the coast and will
continue to spread inland. Wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger
than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some
elevated locations could be even greater.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
on Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and should
continue through the night.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 262038
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 102.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 330SE 270SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 102.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 100SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 70SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 102.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 262038
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN MOVING SLOWLY...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 102.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 102.8 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of
southwestern Mexico or just inland later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible until the center moves along
the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause John
to quickly weaken on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall of
2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches is expected across the
Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
Hurricane Warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds to
tropical storm strength are already ongoing along the coast and will
continue to spread inland. Wind speeds atop and on the windward
sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger
than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some
elevated locations could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 262039
TCDEP5

Hurricane John Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

John has slowed its forward motion this afternoon. A scatterometer
pass late this morning confirmed that the motion had slowed and the
center is lingering offshore. The inner core of convection has
become less pronounced and the circulation may be feeling the
orographic effects of the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico. However, a strong convective curved band extends in the
southwest semi-circle. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have
remained fairly steady this afternoon between 65 to 75 kt. Given the
current satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity for
this advisory remains at 65 kt.

The hurricane has not been moving much since the previous advisory
and the estimated motion is 325/ 2 kt. This slow motion is forecast
to continue as John approaches the coastline, moving along the
coast or just inland later tonight or early tomorrow. Some of the
global model fields keep the system offshore near the coast a
little longer. In the long term, a turn back to the west-northwest
is anticipated as the system weakens and is steered by a high
pressure ridge located over northern Mexico.

The overall environment remains favorable for John to strengthen
with very warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear.
However, John's proximity to the coastline may continue to disrupt
the circulation and not allow for much additional strengthening. The
latest NHC intensity forecast shows some slight strengthening over
the next 12 h. Models are in fairly good agreement that steady
weakening will begin Friday, with the system becoming a depression
on Friday night.

John has a very large rain shield, and flooding impacts will extend
well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be
emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week
for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern
Mexico, where hurricane conditions are imminent. Tropical Storm
Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area, where
tropical storm conditions are ongoing or imminent.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 17.6N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.0N 103.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 19.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 20.6N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261747
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN STATIONARY...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is currently
stationary, a slow northwestward motion towards the coast is
anticipated later today. On the forecast track, the center of John
is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern
Mexico or just inland on later today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected until the center moves
along the coast or inland later today or tonight, which should cause
John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o
2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the
Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength within a few
hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 261439
TCDEP5

Hurricane John Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

John continues to depict a small inner core, with earlier microwave
images depicting a small eye feature. Since that microwave pass, the
eye feature has become more prevalent on infrared imagery. The
UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 65 to 75 kt. The
subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are both 65 kt,
respectively. Using a blend of the intensity estimates and the
continued improved satellite depiction, the intensity is set at 65
kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is estimated to be moving northwestward at 310/5 kt.
The official forecast is shifted slightly to the right in the near
term, which follows recent satellite trends and lies near the latest
HCCA consensus aid. On the forecast track, the center of John is
forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico
or just inland later today. However, some of the global model fields
do linger the system offshore near the coast a little longer,
particularly the ECMWF global model. In the long term, a turn back
to the west-northwest is anticipated as the system weakens and is
steered by the ridge over northern Mexico.

The overall environment remains favorable for John to continue to
strengthen until landfall with very warm sea surface temperatures,
low wind shear, abundant moisture throughout all levels of the
atmosphere. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to call for
strengthening up until landfall and shows a peak intensity of 75 kt,
which is slightly lower than previous intensity peak due to the
latest forecast showing the system moving inland a little faster
than the previous forecast.

John has very large rain shield and flooding impacts will extend
well outside where the system makes landfall. It cannot be
emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week
for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and
Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacán.

2. John is forecast to continue strengthening up until landfall, and
a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern
Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are imminent. Tropical
Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and
tropical storm are ongoing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.5N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261439
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...HURRICANE JOHN IS PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 102.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from west of
Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 18
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 102.7 West. John is moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should
continue through the remainder of today. On the forecast track,
the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast
of southwestern Mexico or just inland on later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the center moves
along the coast or inland later today, which should cause John to
quickly weaken to a depression Friday

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches across portions of
the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. Additional rainfall o
2 to 4 inches with locally up to 6 inches expected across the
Mexican States of Colima and western Oaxaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later within a few
hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 261438
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 360SE 300SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 102.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 102.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 102.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 103.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 80SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 102.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 261144
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 102.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 102.6 West. John is moving
toward the west-northwest near 4 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the
northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of
John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of
southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until the
center moves along the coast or inland on Friday, which should
cause John to quickly weaken to a depression Friday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (15 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Hurricane John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260919
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated
an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature.
The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt,
and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The
subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt,
respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend
of these data.

The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is
low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the
atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves
over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS
statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing
chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and
the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt
before landfall.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered
over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion
through today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this
evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to
approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just
inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted a little
to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the
skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has
been performing the best with this system.

The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based
on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass.

It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the
end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of
southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin
during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also
in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward
to Manzanillo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260909
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated
an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature.
The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt,
and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The
subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt,
respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend
of these data.

The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is
low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the
atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves
over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS
statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing
chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and
the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt
before landfall.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered
over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the
northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of
John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of
southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track
forecast is adjusted to a little to the left of the previous one and
follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the
ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this
system.

The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based
on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass.

It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the
end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of
southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin
during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also
in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward
to Manzanillo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260835
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated
an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature.
The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt,
and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The
subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt,
respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend
of these data.

The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is
low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the
atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves
over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS
statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing
chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and
the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt
before landfall.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered
over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the
northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of
John is forecast to approach and move along over Northern Mexico.
John should continue in this general motion is expected to continue
today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening.
On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach
and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on
Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted to a little to the
left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled
HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been
performing the best with this system.the coast of southwestern
Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is
adjusted to a little to the left of the previous one and follows a
compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global
model, which has been performing the best with this system.

The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based
on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass.

It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the
end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall,
and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of
southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin
during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also
in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward
to Manzanillo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260834
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 102.5 West. John is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a gradual turn to the
northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of
John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of
southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane later today,
with additional strengthening expected until the center moves along
the coast or inland on Friday and weaken to a depression Friday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260833
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 240SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 102.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260541
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024

...JOHN NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...28.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.4 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual
turn to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico by tonight and move along the coast or inland on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane
later today, with additional strengthening expected until the center
moves along the coast or inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (28.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area by tonight or early Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue through today.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260335 CCA
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

Corrected Hurricane to Tropical Storm John

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft just finished its
investigation of Tropical Storm John and found that the central
pressure has dropped to 984 mb. Dropsonde data and SFMR data
support an intensity of 55 kt, which is also the average of the
latest TAFB and SAB intensity estimates. Satellite imagery shows a
very large area of very cold cloud tops. Based on the available
data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.

Based on fixes from the Air Force plane, the initial motion is
estimated to be northwestward, or 325/4 kt. The model guidance has
made a big shift to the west on this cycle, which makes sense since
John has been moving significantly to the west of the previous NHC
forecast track. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted well
to the west, and currently lies slightly to the east of the latest
track consensus aids. The westward shift to the track has
necessitated the Hurricane Warnings to be shifted farther west
along the coast of Mexico. The new forecast shows landfall
occurring about 40 to 50 miles farther to the west compared to the
previous official forecast, with the forecast landfall now well to
the west of Lazaro Cardenas later Thursday night. It should be
noted that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the track
forecast.

Tropical Storm John is currently located over 31C sea-surface
temperatures, which is extremely warm. The tropical storm is also
in a moist environment and appears to also have a favorable
upper-level wind environment. Both the GFS-SHIPS and the
ECMWF-SHIPS Rapid-Intensity-Index shows a very high chance of rapid
intensification over the next 24 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast has been increased significantly from the previous official
forecast, and lies near the high end of the latest intensity
guidance suite. Given the extremely favorable environmental
conditions, it wouldn't be surprising if further increases to the
intensity forecast are needed on subsequent forecasts.

Although this forecast shows dissipation by hour 60, there is a
chance that John could survive a bit longer, moving
west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico.

It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the
end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall,
and the Hurricane Warning has been extended westward along the
coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions
could begin within the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are
also in effect for portions of the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.0N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.3N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.7N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 260234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 102.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Lazaro
Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.

The government of Mexico has canceled the Hurricane Watch from
Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 102.1 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a gradual
turn to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of
Mexico on Thursday and be inland on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by early
Thursday, with additional strengthening expected until the center
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area by late Thursday or Thursday night. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the next
few hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are currently occurring over portions of
the coast within the tropical storm warning area, and should
continue into Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 260235
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft just finished its
investigation of Hurricane John and found that the central pressure
has dropped to 984 mb. Dropsonde data and SFMR data support an
intensity of 55 kt, which is also the average of the latest TAFB
and SAB intensity estimates. Satellite imagery shows a very large
area of very cold cloud tops. Based on the available data, the
initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.

Based on fixes from the Air Force plane, the initial motion is
estimated to be northwestward, or 325/4 kt. The model guidance has
made a big shift to the west on this cycle, which makes sense since
John has been moving significantly to the west of the previous NHC
forecast track. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted well
to the west, and currently lies slightly to the east of the latest
track consensus aids. The westward shift to the track has
necessitated the Hurricane Warnings to be shifted farther west
along the coast of Mexico. The new forecast shows landfall
occurring about 40 to 50 miles farther to the west compared to the
previous official forecast, with the forecast landfall now well to
the west of Lazaro Cardenas later Thursday night. It should be
noted that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the track
forecast.

Hurricane John is currently located over 31C sea-surface
temperatures, which is extremely warm. The hurricane is also in a
moist environment and appears to also have a favorable upper-level
wind environment. Both the GFS-SHIPS and the ECMWF-SHIPS
Rapid-Intensity-Index shows a very high chance of rapid
intensification over the next 24 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast has been increased significantly from the previous
official forecast, and lies near the high end of the latest
intensity guidance suite. Given the extremely favorable
environmental conditions, it wouldn't be surprising if further
increases to the intensity forecast are needed on subsequent
forecasts.

Although this forecast shows dissipation by hour 60, there is a
chance that John could survive a bit longer, moving
west-northwestward near the coast of Mexico.

It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the
end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall,
and the Hurricane Warning has been extended westward along the
coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions
could begin within the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are
also in effect for portions of the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.0N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.3N 102.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.7N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 260234
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 110SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.3N 102.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 150SE 130SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.7N 102.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 103.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 102.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252336
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...JOHN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...THREAT OF CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 101.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, this is case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 101.8 West. John is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This motion
should continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn
to the west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of John is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico
early on Thursday and be inland on Friday.

Recent data from aircraft reconnaissance indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. John is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane as it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent dropsonde
data is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local
statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 252051
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...JOHN EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 101.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for
the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from west of Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Acapulco
* Lazaro Cardenas to Punta San Telmo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, this is case within 12 to 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.5 West. John is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This motion should
continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn to the
west-northwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of John
is forecast to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on early
Thursday and be inland on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the
coast of southern Mexico on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the
hurricane warning area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local
statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 252052
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

John is becoming more organized this afternoon. Satellite imagery
has shown deep bursts of convection forming near the center with
curved banding around the majority of the circulation. Subjective
Dvorak from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively,
and the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 45 kt to
represent a blend of these estimates. An Air Force Hurricane
Reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate John and gather
more information about the intensity, location, and structure. The
tropical-storm-force winds in the southeast quadrant have been
adjusted outward significantly based on an earlier partial ASCAT
pass.

Little has changed in the intensity forecast reasoning. Oceanic and
atmospheric conditions are conducive for further intensification, as
long as the storm remains over water. SHIPS-RII, a rapid
intensification indicator, shows about a 70 percent chance of rapid
intensification in the next 24 hours. The official intensity
forecast now shows John becoming a hurricane in 24 hours as it nears
the coast of southwestern Mexico. This forecast is near the top of
the guidance, closest to HCCA, but could still be conservative.

John is moving with an estimated motion of 355/3 kt. The track
forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance has shifted westward,
and is showing John either nearly stationary or slowly following the
coastline northwestward. This motion seems to depend on the
strength of the ridge to the north-northwest, which is centered over
the southwestern United States. However, the current motion
suggests John should move closer to the coast with the center
likely to move inland on Thursday afternoon or evening, though
this could occur sooner. Future adjustments to the track forecast
may be necessary, and there remains a large spread in the aids.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued by the government of Mexico for
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and interests there
should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. The Tropical
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca and Michoacan.

2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall,
and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the
coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions
could begin later today. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch have also been extended westward.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 252051
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 130SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.5W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 140SE 110SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 110SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 101.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/R. ZELINSKY




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...JOHN STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 101.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (5 km/h). A slow
motion to the north is expected later today. On the forecast track,
the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern and
southwestern coast of Mexico on early Thursday and be inland on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the
coast of southern Mexico on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca,
coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the
hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local
statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 251455
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...JOHN REFORMS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of Mexico from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is
moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion to the
north is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center
of the system is forecast to approach the southern and southwestern
coast of Mexico on Thursday and move inland on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of
southern Mexico on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce
additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals
around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca,
coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the
hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to
affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local
statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 251456
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The
CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity,
likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have
merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough.
Convection has gradually become better organized based on
geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass
at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a
well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has
given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this
advisory.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen
in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water.
Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining
weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea
surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is
an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification.
The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak
intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and
at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance
John may become a hurricane prior to landfall.

The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with
an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will
gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly
towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the
timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models
showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF
lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls
for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on
Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this
timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been
issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of
southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future
forecasts for updates.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca.

2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of
the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical
storm conditions could begin later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 251454
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 90SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 110SE 60SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 101.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 241900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 100.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 100.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.7N 100.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.5N 101.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 101.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.8N 101.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.4N 101.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 005 KT, GUSTS 015 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.9N 101.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 000 KT, GUSTS 010 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 100.5W.
24SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 10E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1278 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
241200Z IS 999 MB.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 241748
TCDEP5

Remnants Of John Special Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
low-level center of John has dissipated. Therefore, the system
is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last NHC
advisory. However, an elongated trough partly associated with
John's remnants appears to be forming off the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico. This system is now included in the Tropical
Weather Outlook with a medium chance of development.

Regardless of whether or not John re-forms or a new system
develops, heavy rainfall with the potential for significant flooding
is likely during the next several days over portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico, especially in areas of high terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 17.7N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 241747
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of John Special Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...JOHN DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS STILL EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the remnants of John were located
inland near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.6 West. The remnants
are moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the remnants of John are expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Information on possible tropical cyclone
development off the coast of Mexico will be contained in the
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 241747
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF JOHN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1800 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 100.6W AT 24/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 100.6W AT 24/1800Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z..DISSIPATED

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 241434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.5 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). Little motion
is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Tropical Storm John is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next couple
of hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so,
with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see
local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 241435
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

John has been rapidly weakening since it moved inland last night,
and the maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be around 35
kt. The storm still has a well-defined mid-level center, but
surface observations suggest that the low-level circulation is
less defined and could be opening into a trough. A strong band of
thunderstorms to the east of the estimated center continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the future of John. One
possibility is that the storm dissipates over Mexico, with a trough
or low reforming back offshore and lingering in that location for
much of the rest of the week. The other possibility is that John
itself hangs on as a tropical depression or storm. For now, the
official forecast generally follows the previous scenario and shows
John weakening to a tropical depression later today and lingering
near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico until the end of
the week. It is hoped that additional data and model runs later
today will help provide some clarity on the system's future.

Even though the future of John is uncertain, there is high
confidence that heavy rains will continue in portions of southern
and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. See the Key
Messages below for additional information on that hazard.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Slow-moving John will continue to bring very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the
upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and
possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion
of areas of higher terrain.

2. John could still produce tropical storm conditions for the next
couple of hours in the tropical storm warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.7N 100.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 25/0000Z 17.7N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1200Z 17.3N 101.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/0000Z 17.7N 100.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 241434
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 100.5W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 100.5W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 100.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 101.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 101.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 100.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.7N 100.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 100.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 241146
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 100.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has adjusted the Tropical Storm
Warning westward from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.3 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is
expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Tropical Storm John is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few
hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so,
with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see
local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240852
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

John moved inland at around 0315 UTC as a 105 kt Category 3
Hurricane. Since that time, the the storm has apparently turned more
leftward and remains just inland, skirting the southern coast of
Mexico. While surface observations have been sparse, my best guess
is that the storm recently passed just to the north of Acapulco,
where the airport earlier reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts
and west winds as the pressure dropped to 998 mb. Assuming the
small core has continued to quickly weaken, John is being
downgraded to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 60 kt
this advisory.

Following fixes from earlier microwave and more recent geostationary
satellite imagery, John now appears to be moving northwestward at
310/7 kt. The track forecast, which has been problematic with John
from the start, is just as difficult now. John has continued to
deviate westward of the previous forecast track and is now moving
roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. To make matters worse, a
decent chunk of the of the global models guidance (ECMWF, UKMET) and
hurricane regional models (HWRF, HMON) suggest the circulation could
continue turning westward and attempt to re-emerge over the Eastern
Pacific. Even the GFS and CMC solutions, which appear to dissipate
the surface circulation inland over Mexico, show the mid-level
circulation persisting and drifting back offshore, leading to the
development of a new low-level circulation. Because it is becoming
distinctly possible that John does not move far enough inland to
dissipate entirely, and the aforementioned continued leftward
trends, the latest NHC track forecast is altered quite a bit form
the prior forecast, and now shows the possibility that John, albeit
as a tropical depression, moving back offshore as it becomes tangled
in the larger monsoonal flow. By 72 h, most of the track guidance
shows the system moving back inland. The updated track forecast is
roughly in between the HCCA and ECMWF trackers, and is of very low
confidence given John's track history. It also remains possible the
system could dissipate later today if it moves further inland.

Intensity-wise, John should continue to rapidly weaken as long as
it remains onshore, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the
tropical cyclone weakening to a tropical depression later today.
However, the new NHC forecast now maintains the system as a
depression and does not show dissipation beyond 24 h given the
latest track forecast taking the system along the coast of Mexico
and not far enough inland to completely dissipate. Some of the
models (notably the ECMWF) attempt to also re-intensify John as it
gets far enough back offshore, but given the large changes made on
this forecast cycle, the NHC intensity will not show that solution
quite yet.

Even if John remains inland, larger-scale moist monsoonal
southeasterly flow will persist along the southern coast of Mexico,
likely contributing to catastrophic rainfall both along the coast
and inland over the up-slope portion of the mountainous terrain.
This is a very dangerous life-threatening flooding scenario.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John could still producing tropical storm
conditions for the next few hours in the tropical storm warning
area.

2. Slow-moving John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal
portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy
rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic,
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States
of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas
near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 17.3N 100.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240850
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN
MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 100.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the the Hurricane Warning from
east of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 100.0 West. John is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A very slow
motion westward followed by very little motion is forecasted over
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is
expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the
tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few
hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface
winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations
could be even greater.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240849
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 99.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 100.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240554
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024

...HURRICANE JOHN JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 99.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...90 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
east of Lagunas de Chacahua and the whole Tropical Storm
Warning area.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 99.2 West. John is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast
track, the center of John is forecast to move further inland near
the coast of southern Mexico later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (160 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening over the high terrain of
southern Mexico is forecast now that the core of John has moved
inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km). Recently, the Acapulco International Airport reported a
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in the warning area for the next few
hours. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the
hurricane warning area and should continue for the next few hours.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 240322
TCUEP5

Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
920 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO...

Satellite data indicates that Hurricane John has made landfall
along the southern coast of Mexico just to the south-southwest of
Marquelia, Mexico in the state of Guerrero at around 915 PM CST
(0315 UTC). The maximum sustained winds at landfall are estimated
to be 120 mph (195 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is
estimated at 959 mb (28.32 inches). This makes John a category 3
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.


SUMMARY OF 920 PM CST...0320 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 240232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 98.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
couple of hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next couple hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 98.8 West. John is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of
John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico
in the next couple of hours. John will continue to move inland over
southern Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. John is now a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible the next couple of hours before John makes landfall.
After landfall, the system will rapidly weaken over the high terrain
of southern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing within portions of the
hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already
occuring within the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the
windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and
in some elevated locations could be even greater.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 240233
TCDEP5

Hurricane John Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

John has continued to strengthen this evening with a small tight
inner core, which was well depicted in SSMIS microwave images around
00z. Infrared imagery depicts an eye with cold cloud tops near -80 C
wrapping around the core. Subjective intensity estimates have
continued to increase this evening with data-T values of T5.5 from
both SAB and TAFB, with final-T values constrained due to the rapid
intensification. Given the most recent satellite depiction and using
the data-T values, the intensity for this advisory is increased to
105 kt. John is now a major category 3 hurricane.

The hurricane could still strengthen some more over the next couple
of hours before it makes landfall along the coast of southern
Mexico. After John moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast over
the higher terrain with the small inner core quickly deteriorating.
The rate of weakening could occur faster than what is currently
forecast and the 24 h forecast point is held for continuity inland
as it is possible the system could dissipate sooner.

John continues to move northward around 7 kt. This current motion
should continue as John nears the coast, making landfall in the next
couple of hours and will continue to move inland on Tuesday. The
cyclone is forecast to slow its forward motion as it moves inland
and dissipates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. John is expected to be a major hurricane as it reaches the coast
of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area in the next
couple of hours. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area.

2. Slow-moving Hurricane John will bring very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This
heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.3N 98.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 240231
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 98.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 232348
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 98.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. John is moving toward
the north near 8 mph (15 km/h). A slow motion to the north or
north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible over the next few hours and John could become a major
hurricane before making landfall along the coast of southern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45
miles (75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the
coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast
to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with
isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are imminent within portions of
the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already
occuring within the warning area.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 232048
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 98.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from west of
Punta Maldonado to east of Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion to the north or
north-northeast is expected during the next 24 hours. On the
forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along
the coast of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast
to continue, and John is expected to become a major hurricane as it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the
coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast
to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with
isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area this evening.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 232049
TCDEP5

Hurricane John Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

John continues to rapidly strengthen. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, while the latest
objective intensity estimates are a little higher, in the 79 to 90
kt range. On infrared satellite imagery, the area of cold cloud
tops continues to grow, and the inner core is becoming more
symmetric. The latest visible images have shown hints of a small
eye, that has become a little more apparent in the last few hours.
Based on the above data and recent satellite trends, the initial
intensity is increased to 85 kt, making John a category 2 hurricane.

Environmental parameters continue to be ripe for additional rapid
intensification, with very warm ocean temperatures, weak vertical
wind shear and a moist atmosphere. The only potential limiting
factor could be how John might interact with the mountainous
topography of Mexico as the hurricane approaches the coastline. The
DSHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models remain at the higher
end of the guidance envelope and show John becoming a major
hurricane as it approaches the coast. The EC SHIPS Rapid Intensity
Index is depicting a high likelihood of continued rapid
intensification over next 12 hours. The latest NHC forecast is near
the high end of the intensity guidance and continues to show John
strengthening to a 105-kt hurricane. It is possible that John could
peak even higher than shown below between the 12 h forecast point
and when it reaches the coast.

John continues to move due northward, now at 5 kt. The current
motion and the latest model guidance has again necessitated a
westward track shift to the NHC forecast. Given the updated track
forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane
warning westward.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is
forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the
coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area tonight
or early Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a
life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area.

2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of
southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely
cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 98.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 232047
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 98.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 98.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN




Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 231758
TCDEP5

Hurricane John Special Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images
suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery.
Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from
65 to 85 kt. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt.
The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major
hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. It is possible
that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast.

Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to
show landfall occurring a bit sooner. Residents of Mexico in the
hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this
afternoon.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is
forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the
coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on
Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge
are expected within portions of the warning area.

2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of
southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely
cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231756
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Special Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz
* West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located
near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. John is moving toward
the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast
or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the
southern coast of Mexico tonight, and move inland on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to
become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of
southern Mexico on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the
coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast
to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with
isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight or early Tuesday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area early Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 231756
TCMEP5

HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 98.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN




Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 231747
TCUEP5

Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1145 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that John continues to rapidly
strengthen with estimated maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140
km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC)
to reflect this intensity change and update the track and intensity
forecast. The special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 1200
PM CST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231447
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 98.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the
north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast
to approach the southern coast of Mexico late tonight and early
Tuesday, and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to
become a hurricane by this afternoon, with additional strengthening
expected before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the
coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast
to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with
isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of
days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of
the week. Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 231447
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

Satellite images show that John has been strengthening quickly. A
large area of cold cloud tops between -70C and -85C is present over
the tropical cyclone, with tight curved bands wrapping around the
center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are
T-3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T-3.0/45 kt from SAB. Recent objective
Dvorak intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been ranging between
57 and 76 kt. A 23/0836 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass shows that the
inner core has become much better defined, showing a small eye-like
feature on microwave imagery, although there are no signs of an eye
showing up yet in infrared or visible images. A 23/1011 UTC SSMIS
pass showed a similar structure to the AMSR-2 pass. Based on the
above data and imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

John will continue to be located within an environment of extremely
warm ocean temperatures, light wind shear and a moist low- to
mid-level troposphere as it approaches the coast of Mexico. While
the hurricane regional and dynamical models show a more limited
amount of additional strengthening, the statistical models like
SHIPS and LGEM are at the high end of the guidance suite. Given
that the system has already intensified by 30 kt in the past 18 h,
and given that the SHIPS rapid intensity index is showing greater
than an 85 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 h, the
NHC intensity forecast will now explicitly show rapid strengthening
over the next 24 h. This intensity forecast is at the high end of
the guidance suite. It is possible that John could peak even
higher than shown below between the 24 h forecast point and when it
is forecast to move inland around 36 hours. Interests along the
coast of southern Mexico should closely monitor future forecast
updates on John.

Based on center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, John's motion is
estimated to be northward, or 0 degrees at 3 kt. John is embedded
in very weak steering currents, and the primary steering mechanism
is likely the southwesterly monsoonal flow that the cyclone is
embedded in. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the
west of the previous official forecast and now lies very near the
latest model consensus. It should be noted that the track forecast
and timing of when the center reaches the coast is more uncertain
than normal.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. John is expected to become a hurricane later today and
additional strengthening is likely before the center reaches the
coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on
Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge
are expected within portions of the warning area.

2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of
southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely
cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and
southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.8N 98.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.7N 97.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 16.2N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 231447
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 98.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 98.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.2N 98.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 97.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW.
50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.2N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 98.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN




Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 231342
TCUEP5

Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become
better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later
today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches
the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area.
This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity
that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the
National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC).

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 231154
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 98.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from east of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next
day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches
the coast of southern Mexico, and the chances of it becoming a
hurricane before landfall are increasing.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the
coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast
to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with
isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area early Tuesday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast
within the tropical storm warning area on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin
to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230853
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

Satellite images indicate that John continues to become better
organized, with very deep convection near the center and some tight
curved band features. Earlier microwave imagery also showed some
inner core development, with perhaps a partial eyewall trying to
form. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 06z were 35 kt from both
TAFB/SAB, though the objective values were between 40-50 kt. The
intensity is set to 40 kt as a blend of these data.

The storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast, caught in the
large-scale southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough
near Central America. There has been a big change in most of the
track guidance since yesterday, with a fair number of the models
now showing a steadier northeastward motion with less eastward
steering from the incipient tropical cyclone in the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the models have shifted leftward and
faster. The official forecast is also trended in that direction,
but could still be too far to the east.

John is forecast to be over very warm waters with light shear while
it approaches the coast of Mexico over the next day or so. While
none of the regional hurricane models make John a hurricane before
landfall, the rapid intensification indices are indicating at least
a 50 percent chance that this system strengthens 30 kt in the next
24 hours, which would indicate hurricane-strength. Given the
uncertainties involved, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm
Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of
the coast of southern Mexico on this advisory, and interests there
should closely monitor for future forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Slow-moving Tropical Storm John will bring very heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the
upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant
and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast
Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.

2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion
of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm
conditions could begin late today.

3. John could strengthen more than forecast depending on how
long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern
Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as Hurricane
Warnings could be required for a portion of the coastline later
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230852
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 98.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado
to Bahias de Huatulco.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next
day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen over the next
day or two, and could become a hurricane before landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the
coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast
to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with
isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday.
This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the
Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero,
particularly in areas near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible early Tuesday within the
Hurricane Watch area.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to start within portions of
the warning area late today or early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin
to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 230851
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 98.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 98.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230539 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

Corrected to add size of tropical storm force winds

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN...
...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.5 West. The system
has been recently drifting northward, but a slow north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is then anticipated on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days until landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km/h)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
John (formerly Tropical Depression Ten-E), please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin
to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230532
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN...
...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.5 West. The system
has been recently drifting northward, but a slow north-northeastward
motion is expected to begin later today. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is then anticipated on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days until landfall.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12
inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
John (formerly Tropical Depression Ten-E), please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin
to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 230232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 98.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is
expected later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the Tropical Depression is expected to
produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches
across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the
Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain
with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Ten, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells associated with the depression are forecast to begin
to affect the coast of southern Mexico on Monday, with the
potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week.
Please see local statements for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 230233
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

Satellite images show that the depression is gradually becoming
better organized, with some convective banding features developing
around the circulation and a small area of very cold cloud tops
over the estimated center. Upper-level outflow is fairly well
defined over the southern semicircle of the system. Subjective
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB indicate a T-number of
2.0, so the advisory intensity is held at 30 kt for now.

Center fixes indicate little movement since earlier today, so the
initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. As noted earlier,
the track forecast for this tropical cyclone is quite problematic,
with a large spread in the guidance models. The regional hurricane
models are generally east of the global guidance, with the ECMWF on
the western side of the model tracks. The most recent run of the
GFS takes the cyclone inland in a couple of days but later
develops one or two new centers offshore. Since the dominant
steering mechanism seems to be the Central American Gyre, the
official track forecast shows a mainly east-northeastward motion
during the forecast period, along the southern periphery of the
Gyre. This track moves the center close to the southern coast of
Mexico for several days before making landfall, and lies between
the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions.

During most of the forecast period, the system should remain over
very warm waters with low vertical wind shear and in a moist low-
to mid-level air mass. Therefore strengthening is likely, and the
official intensity forecast is similar to the statistical-dynamical
LGEM guidance. One major source of uncertainty in the forecast is
how much the system interacts with land during the next few days.
Given the favorable environment, it is possible that the system
could become a hurricane before landfall. Interests along the coast
of southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates for this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a
portion of the coast now covered by a Tropical Storm Watch.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the
upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant
and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast
Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
tonight or on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for a
portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm
conditions could begin on Tuesday.

3. The system could strengthen more than forecast depending on how
long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern
Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane
Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight
or on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 230231
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 222332
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

...DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.7 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is
expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
system will likely become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the depression is expected to produce 6
to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across
the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca
coast, between 10 and 20 inches of rain can be expected through
Thursday, with localized higher amounts near 30 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 222057
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

Convection has gradually become better organized today in
association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been
monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer
pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and
peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a
new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin.

The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift
is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is
challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding
the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows
the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes
captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central
American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET)
instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC
track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between
the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track
forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models,
and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances.

The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be
conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next
couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and
HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models
indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is
not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the
environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast
of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The
peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long
the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is
quite uncertain given the track challenges described above.

Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta
Maldonado to Salina Cruz.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico
through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of
Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while
moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline,
where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday.

3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains
over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should
monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be
required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 222050
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E
was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.7 West. The
depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is
expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.

Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during
the next few days while the center of the system remains over water.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the depression is expected to produce 6
to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across
the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca
coast, between 10 and 20 inches of rain can be expected through
Thursday, with localized higher amounts near 30 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the
watch area beginning on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 222050
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024

Convection has gradually become better organized today in
association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been
monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer
pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and
peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a
new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin.

The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift
is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is
challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding
the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows
the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes
captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central
American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET)
instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC
track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between
the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track
forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models,
and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances.

The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be
conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next
couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and
HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models
indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is
not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the
environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast
of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The
peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long
the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is
quite uncertain given the track challenges described above.

Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta
Maldonado to Salina Cruz.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Slow moving Tropical Depression Ten will bring very heavy
rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico
through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of
Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while
moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline,
where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday.

3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains
over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should
monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be
required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 222049
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 98.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART