Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ILEANA-24
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 109.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 109.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.1N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 27.3N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 109.7W.
15SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
587 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 11 FEET.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 151439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024

...ILEANA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM W OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana
was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.6 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow northwestward motion will continue through Monday. On
the forecast track, the remnant low will move over the Gulf of
California near the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is forecast to weaken today and dissipate on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ileana may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
to portions of northwest Sinaloa through today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the coasts of northern
Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will continue to subside along the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 151440
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024

Ileana has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday afternoon,
as the system has been within a strong wind shear and very dry
environment. Given the lack of convection, the system is being
designated as a post-tropical remnant low. An ASCAT-C pass from
late last night depicted winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of
California near northern Sinaloa. Given this, will hold the
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous.

The system has been meandering over the Gulf of California with a
motion of 310/3 kt. The remnant low will increase forward speed
later today as it continues northwestward. The remnant low will
continue to weaken throughout the day, and is forecast to dissipate
on Monday.

This is the last advisory on this system. For additional
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 25.7N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 151438
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KELLY




Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 012
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 25.4N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.8N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.5N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151000Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 109.5W.
15SEP24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
599 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150843
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ileana Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024

...ILEANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 109.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ileana
was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana
is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana
will move over the Gulf of California near the coasts of northern
Sinaloa and southern Sonora.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ileana is
expected to become a remnant low later this morning. The remnant
low is forecast to dissipate on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Ileana may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
to portions of northwest Sinaloa through today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the coasts of northern
Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will continue to subside along the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150844
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Ileana Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024

All of Ileana's deep convection dissipated yesterday afternoon, and
all that is left now is a swirl of low clouds off the coast of
northern Sinaloa. An ASCAT-C pass from 0410 UTC showed maximum
winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa,
and a weather station in Topolobampo is no longer reporting winds to
tropical storm force. As a result, Ileana is now designated as a
30-kt tropical depression, and all coastal warnings in Mexico have
been discontinued.

Ileana has been meandering, but the longer-term motion is
west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. Model guidance indicates that the
cyclone should turn northwestward later today but maintain a
generally slow motion while moving over the Gulf of California.
Due to strong southwesterly shear and a very dry atmosphere, deep
convection is not expected to redevelop, and it's likely that
Gordon will be declared a remnant low later this morning. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate on Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 25.5N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150843
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.8N 109.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.5N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 109.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150539
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA WEAKENING WHILE MEANDERING JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN
SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 109.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is
meandering off the coast of northern Sinaloa but has a longer-term
motion toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected soon with an increase in forward
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near
the coastal region of northern Sinaloa overnight, and then move over
the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have begun decreasing and are now near 40
mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast,
and Ileana is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday.
The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up
to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and
southern Sonora during the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 150400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 25.4N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 25.7N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.4N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 27.4N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
150400Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 109.1W.
15SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150237
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

Ileana has stalled near the coast of northwestern Mexico, offshore
of the state of Sinaloa. All of the deep convection has moved
inland, as indicated by both the radar and satellite imagery,
leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Surface observations
from Topolobampo and Los Mochis recently measured sustained winds of
39 kt, with higher gusts. Based on these data, the initial
intensity for this cycle is raised to 40 kt.

The storm is drifting with an uncertain motion of 360/1 kt. Ileana
is still expected to turn northwestward soon and gradually
accelerate, bringing the center across the northern coastal region
of Sinaloa during the next 12 h. By Sunday, the cyclone is forecast
to be near the coast of southern Sonora and stay roughly parallel to
the coast of Mexico over the Gulf of California until the system
dissipates. The new track forecast is again nudged to the north and
east of the previous track and lies near the various consensus
models.

Despite strong southwesterly vertical wind shear decoupling
Ileana's surface circulation from its deep convection, the surface
winds have yet to weaken. Global models indicated that deep
organized convection should not reform and therefore Ileana is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday. The system
should gradually weaken due to the interaction with land and
surrounding dry air and strong vertical wind shear. The official
forecast shows Ileana dissipating by late Monday, though some
numerical guidance suggests this could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall
will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 25.7N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 16/0000Z 26.4N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 109.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora
should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is
drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected soon with an increase in forward speed. On
the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near, or over
the coastal region of northern Sinaloa during the next several
hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel
to the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin overnight, and Ileana
is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. The remnant
low is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently
reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 58
mph (93 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up
to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150235
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 25.7N 109.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.4N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 109.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 142346
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
500 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA DRIFTING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING
INLAND OVER SINALOA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 109.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora
should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is
drifting toward the south near 2 mph (3 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected later tonight or on Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Ileana will move near, over the coastal region
of northern Sinaloa during the next several hours, and then move
over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin this evening, and Ileana is likely to
degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Sunday. The remnant low
is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently
reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 55
mph (89 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up
to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora into this
evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 142200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 108.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 108.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.1N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.6N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
142200Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 109.1W.
14SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 142032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
SOUTHEAST OF TOPOLOBAMPO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 108.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest and a slow forward speed are expected tonight and on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near
over the coastal region of northern Sinaloa during the next several
hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to
the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and
Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on
Sunday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently
reported sustained winds of 34 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of
47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up
to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

Data from the Mexican radar at Guasave indicates that the center of
Ileana has moved onto the coast of Mexico in the state of Sinaloa.
The system is still producing bursts of convection to the north
and northeast of the center, and surface observations show the
winds to the northwest of the center are in the 25-30 kt range.
Based on this, the intensity is held at 35 kt, with these winds
likely occuring along the coast near and east of the center.

The initial motion is now 360/5 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
a slow forward speed are expected during the next 6-12 h, with a
continued northwestward motion after that. This motion should
bring the center across the coastal region of the state of Sinaloa
for the next 12 h or so, followed by a motion over the Gulf of
California roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico, with this
motion continuing until the system dissipates. The new track
forecast is again nudged to the north and east of the previous
track and lies near the various consensus models.

Ileana is expected to weaken below tropical-storm strength in a
few hours due to a combination of shear and land interaction.
However, until that happens, the cyclone should continue to
bring bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern
coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora through this
afternoon. The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low
between 12-24 h, with the remnant low dissipating over the central
Gulf of California on Monday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall
will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 25.5N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 15/0600Z 26.1N 109.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 15/1800Z 26.6N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 27.2N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 142032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 108.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 108.9W AT 14/2100Z...INLAND
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 108.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.1N 109.4W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 109.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141734
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the
coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora during the next
several hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly
parallel to the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or
evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently
reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of
40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up
to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 109.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 109.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.6N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.3N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.9N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 27.7N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141600Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 109.1W.
14SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 638
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 141200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141438
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 108.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the
coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then
move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and
Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional
rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up
to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 141438
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Ileana is being affected by increasing
southwesterly shear. A large burst of convection that occurred in
the early morning hours has moved northeast of the exposed
low-level center, while new convection is forming to the north and
southeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt
based on various satellite intensity estimates and earlier surface
data from Topolobampo, Mexico.

The initial motion is just east of due north or 010/6 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next 6 hours or so, bringing
the center near or over the coast of Mexico near Topolobampo and Los
Mochis today. After that, Ileana should begin a slow motion toward
the northwest over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the
coast of Mexico, with this motion continuing until the system
dissipates. The new track forecast is nudged to the north and east
of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.

Ileana is expected to weaken below tropical-storm strength later
today due to a combination of shear and land interaction. However,
before that happens, the cyclone should bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and
southern coast of Sonora through this afternoon. The system is
expected to degenerate to a remnant low between 12-24 h, with the
remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California on
Monday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall
will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 24.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 25.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST
24H 15/1200Z 26.3N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 26.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 27.7N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 141438
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 108.9W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 108.9W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N 109.2W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 109.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.7N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141137
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
500 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 109.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the
north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the
coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later today, and then
move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or
evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently
reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 48
mph (77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring rainfall of 6
to 8 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches, across
northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this
morning and afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 141000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 23.9N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.1N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.9N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.6N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.4N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
141000Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 109.2W.
14SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 673
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140853
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

Ileana continues to produce bursts of deep convection, but a
sharpening of the west side of the cloud canopy suggests stronger
vertical shear is setting in. Maximum winds are still estimated to
be 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening, and the fact that
subjective and objective intensity estimates have not begun to
decrease much quite yet.

Ileana's center is moving northward over the southern Gulf of
California, away from southern Baja California Sur, with an initial
motion of 360/8 kt. A northward motion is expected to continue
today, bringing Ileana's center near or over the coast of northern
Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday. The new NHC track
forecast is a bit to the east of the previous prediction during the
first 12 hours or so, mainly due to an adjustment of the initial
position. The track guidance indicates that Ileana should slow
down and turn north-northwestward and then northwestward tonight
and on Sunday, generally running up the length of the Gulf of
California.

Although deep-layer shear is beginning to increase, several models,
including the GFS and ECMWF, indicate that Ileana could maintain
tropical storm intensity and bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of
Sonora later this morning and early afternoon. These same models,
however, show Ileana's convection quickly being sheared away and
dissipating by this evening and tonight as the cyclone moves into a
much drier air mass. As a result, the NHC forecast shows Ileana
degenerating into a remnant low in about 24 hours, with the remnant
low dissipating over the central Gulf of California by early Monday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring
a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and
afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 24.3N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140852
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024

...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 109.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along
the coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito, and has
discontinued all watches and warnings for Baja California Sur.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altata to Huatabampito Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 109.2 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion
toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near
or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later
today, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel
to the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and
Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring rainfall of 6
to 8 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches, across
northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this
morning and afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the
Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern
Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140851
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 109.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 109.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140535
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...ILEANA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 109.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A steady northward to
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On
the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move over the southern and
central Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) was reported at
Cabo Pulmo, Baja California Sur, during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in between 6 to 8 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in southern Baja California Sur through early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by
early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 66.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2024 16.2N 66.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCINE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.8N 95.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2024 33.8N 95.0W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 39.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2024 19.9N 39.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2024 20.6N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2024 19.9N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2024 19.9N 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2024 20.5N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2024 20.3N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2024 19.8N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2024 19.7N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2024 19.5N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2024 20.3N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2024 20.8N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2024 21.4N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2024 22.6N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2024 24.1N 48.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2024 25.2N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2024 23.1N 108.8W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2024 24.5N 109.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2024 25.0N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 34.2N 74.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2024 34.4N 74.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 18.09.2024 35.8N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2024 36.7N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2024 38.8N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2024 39.8N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2024 40.5N 66.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2024 41.0N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140410


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 140400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 109.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 109.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.5N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.5N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.3N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.1N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140400Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 109.3W.
14SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140235
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...ILEANA SKIRTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 109.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A steady northward
to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and
over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in between 6 to 8 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in the southern Baja California Peninsula through this
evening and into early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140236
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Tropical Storm Ileana is gradually becoming less organized as it
skirts the southern coast of Baja California Sur. Infrared
satellite imagery shows convection being stripped away from the
low-level circulation and radar imagery from Cabo San Lucas still
shows a poorly organized, elongated center. Based on the degraded
presentation of the storm and the earlier ASCAT data, the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is moving northward at 8 kt, and the center is expected
to begin pulling away from the coast of Baja California Sur in the
next couple of hours. This motion should continue through most of
Saturday before the weakening cyclone turns more north-northwestward
over the Gulf of California. The track guidance has shifted
eastwards slightly, largely due to the initial position, and new NHC
track forecast lies between the consensus aids and the previous
prediction.

Vertical wind shear is expected to increase dramatically over Ileana
in the next day or so. The model guidance is in good agreement that
weakening should continue, and the official intensity forecast now
shows Ileana becoming a depression by Saturday, a remnant low by
Sunday, and dissipated by early next week. However, it is possible
this could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this
weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions could continue in portions of Baja
California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 23.5N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 25.5N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 26.3N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 27.1N 110.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140235
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 109.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.1N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 109.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 132347
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward
to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the
southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and
over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to
the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
warning area in southern Baja California Peninsula through this
evening and into early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 22.3N 109.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 109.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 23.7N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.9N 109.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.8N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 26.6N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 27.5N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132200Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 109.3W.
13SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 752
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 132040
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move near or
over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this
afternoon and evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of
California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning
area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 132041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas indicate that
Ileana remains poorly organized with poorly-defined convective
banding around the elongated center. The latest satellite and radar
imagery suggests the center is just east of the latest burst of
convection south of Cabo San Lucas, and this is in reasonable
agreement with positions from recently received ASCAT data. The
scatterometer passes show 30-35 kt winds to the east of the center,
and based on this and the possibility of undersampling, the initial
intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt.

The scatterometer and and an earlier microwave image show that
Ileana is moving slower than thought previously, and the initial
motion is now 345/6. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion
should continue until the cyclone dissipates, with the center
passing near or over the southern end of the Baja California
peninsula during the next 6-12 h and then moving over the central
and southern Gulf of California. The track guidance shifted a
little to the east of the previous guidance, and the new forecast
track is a little to the east of the previous track.

The cyclone should be moving into an environment of increasing
southwesterly to westerly shear and a drier airmass as it moves
into the Gulf of California. The intensity guidance is in good
agreement that Ileana should weaken, and the new intensity forecast
follows this trend. The forecast now calls for the system to become
a depression by 36 h, a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h.
It is possible that Ileana could decay to a remnant low by 36 h, as
the GFS and ECMWF forecast the associated convection to dissipate by
that time.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 132040
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131741
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 109.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this
afternoon and over the southern and central Gulf of California this
weekend.

Recently-received satellite wind data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja
California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and
Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning
area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 131600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 109.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 109.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.5N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.8N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.8N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 26.7N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.6N 111.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
131600Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 109.3W.
13SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 109.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over
the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the
Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend,
and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning
area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 131435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Recent satellite imagery shows that Ileana is producing a large
convective canopy with clouds top temperatures as cold as -80C.
However, data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas shows that
the convective banding under the canopy is poorly organized and
suggests that the circulation center is still broad and elongated.
The various satellite intensity estimates are little changed since
the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt.

The initial motion is 335/8 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next 12 h or so, bringing the center across the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the
southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. After that, a slower
northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast until the
cyclone dissipates over the weekend. There are no significant
changes to either the track forecast guidance and the forecast
track.

Ileana currently appears too disorganized to take advantage of the
current environment of light to moderate shear, good moisture, and
warm water. Thus, little change in strength is expected before
landfall in Baja California Sur. When the cyclone reaches the Gulf
of California, it is forecast to move into increasing westerly shear
and a drier airmass, which should cause weakening despite the very
warm sea surface temperatures. Based on this scenario and the
intensity guidance, the intensity forecast continues to show
weakening, with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h
and dissipate by 72 hr.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 131434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 109.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131135
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
500 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 109.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over
the Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches
the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the
weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 108.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 108.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.8N 109.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.2N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.3N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.2N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 27.1N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
131000Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 109.0W.
13SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 823
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF ILEANA SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 108.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over
the Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja
California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and
Ileana is forecast to dissipate by early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California Sur. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning
area this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 130836
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024

Recent passive microwave images of Ileana reveal a small area of
deep convection near the center of the storm, and as a result Ileana
has maintained a cold central dense overcast overnight. However, the
sharp edge to the cloud pattern suggests some south-southeasterly
shear is impinging on the storm. Radar data from Los Cabos show
outer rainbands are spreading across the southern portion of the
Baja California peninsula. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt
for this advisory, which is consistent with recent scatterometer
data that showed several tropical-storm-force wind vectors in the
southeastern quadrant of the storm.

The estimated initial motion of Ileana is north-northwestward at
330/9 kt. The storm is expected to remain on this general heading in
the near term, bringing the center across the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf
of California by early Saturday. Then, a slower northward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast over the weekend. Little
change was made to the updated NHC track forecast, which remains
between the TVCE and HCCA aids.

The structure of Ileana in microwave and radar imagery does not
suggest much, if any, strengthening is likely before the storm
reaches the coast of Baja California Sur. Deep-layer wind shear is
forecast to substantially increase thereafter, and land interaction
along with potential intrusions of dry air should induce weakening
through the weekend. The increasingly hostile environmental
conditions will likely make it difficult for Ileana to sustain
organized deep convection while it moves northward over the Gulf of
California. Thus, the updated NHC forecast shows degeneration to a
remnant low at 48 h and dissipation by 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of
western Mexico and southern Baja California Sur through this
weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding
and mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
Baja California Sur later this morning, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 21.5N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 24.2N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1800Z 27.1N 110.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 130834
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 108.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.2N 109.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.2N 110.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.1N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130543
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 108.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.6 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and
over the Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches
the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to
begin by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with
localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday
through Sunday, Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized
higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For
northwest coastal Sinaloa, Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall
will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning
area Friday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast
of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California
Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 130400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 108.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 108.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.3N 109.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.7N 109.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 25.0N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 26.1N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 27.0N 110.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.9N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
130400Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 108.6W.
13SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 130000Z IS
999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 108.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next
few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across
the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and
over the Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However,
weakening is expected to begin by late Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal
areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From
Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6
inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across
southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical
Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 130233
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

Ileana continues to slowly gain strength. Deep convection has been
increasing near the center and in some fragmented curved bands
around the central dense overcast. The latest objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt,
and based on that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to
40 kt. Some of the outer bands are moving across west-central
Mexico and nearing the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt toward a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. A north-northwestward to northward motion
but at a slower pace is expected during the next few days, taking
Ileana across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
on Friday and into the Gulf of California this weekend. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA and
TVCE aids.

Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches
Baja California and most of the models show the storm peaking in
intensity in about 12 hours. Around the time the cyclone makes
landfall in Baja, a pronounced increase in wind shear and
intrusions of dry air, along with land interaction, should cause
steady weakening. The shear is expected to increase to near 30 kt
in a couple of days, and that should cause Ileana to degenerate to
a remnant low by 60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the majority of the
models.

Key Messages:

1. Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico
and southern Baja California through the weekend. This heavy
rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to
portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 21.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 130231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 108.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 109.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.7N 109.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.9N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 108.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 122332
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
500 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...ILEANA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THERE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.2 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night
before emerging over the southern Gulf of California by early
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected before the storm reaches Baja
California Sur. After that, gradual weakening is forecast while the
cyclone is near or over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal
areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From
Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6
inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across
southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical
Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions
of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern
Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 107.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 107.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.1N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.7N 109.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.1N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 25.3N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 26.3N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 27.2N 110.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 29.4N 111.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 108.1W.
12SEP24. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ILEANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 939 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 122043 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

Corrected for rainfall statement

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San
Evaristo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to
Loreto.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night
before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday
night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours until
Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is
possible while the cyclone is near or over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches
with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal
areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From
Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6
inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across
southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical
Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher
amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of
flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 122038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ILEANA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 108.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz to San
Evaristo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula north of San Evaristo to
Loreto.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo
southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to
Loreto
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Storm Ileana.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 108.0 West. Ileana is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north
at a slightly slower forward speed is expected Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Ileana should pass near or over the
southern portion of Baja California Sur Friday and Friday night
before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday
night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours until
Ileana reaches Baja California Sur. After that, some weakening is
possible while the cyclone is near or over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6
inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across
the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early
Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to
produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will
bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 122038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared
imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier
today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone
displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of
curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt.
Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the
depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an
initial intensity estimate of 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which
is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern
is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough
located over the western United States will continue to steer the
cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the
system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that
time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering
currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion
toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of
California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the
first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to
the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit
farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving
north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving
inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged
slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the
consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period.

Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean
waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low-
to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water
vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are
unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on
Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening.
When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface
temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible
after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't
have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is
expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is
forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone
becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the
cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried
as a remnant low for continuity.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 122037
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN




Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 121745
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Depression Nine-E.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 107.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected through
early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight
decrease in forward speed by Friday night. On the forecast track,
the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California
Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of
California late Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical
storm later today. After that, slight additional strengthening is
possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California
peninsula.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6
inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across
the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early
Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to
produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will
bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 121530
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN




Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 121459
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of
deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the
coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with
increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective
intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the
system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression.

The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is
a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center,
but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based
on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the
western United States will steer the cyclone toward the
north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the
deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause
steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a
slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of
the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the
coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday.
The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first
48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the
southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the
track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of
Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.

Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an
environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind
shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere.
However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the
northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change
before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary
weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California
are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the
cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h,
westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves
into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water
at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone
losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows
weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low
beyond 72 h.

Key Messages:
1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend.
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and
mudslides to portions of the area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings
have been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen



Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 121458
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward
on the west coast and La Paz southward on the east coast.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along
the east coast of Baja California Sur north of La Paz to San
Evaristo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Depression Nine-E.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed
by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed.
On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near
or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging
over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and
the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later
today, with some slight additional strengthening possible before
the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6
inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across
the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early
Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to
produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will
bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen