Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GORDON-24
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210414

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 54.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2024 0 24.7N 54.9W 1008 20
1200UTC 21.09.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 42.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2024 0 26.4N 42.6W 1007 23
1200UTC 21.09.2024 12 26.0N 42.0W 1007 29
0000UTC 22.09.2024 24 26.0N 42.2W 1008 23
1200UTC 22.09.2024 36 26.9N 42.9W 1010 24
0000UTC 23.09.2024 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.9N 56.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2024 48 27.9N 56.0W 1007 19
1200UTC 23.09.2024 60 29.7N 55.6W 1008 21
0000UTC 24.09.2024 72 31.6N 54.7W 1008 21
1200UTC 24.09.2024 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 37.5N 67.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2024 60 36.3N 67.7W 1004 34
0000UTC 24.09.2024 72 35.5N 67.9W 1005 29
1200UTC 24.09.2024 84 33.4N 67.8W 1008 26
0000UTC 25.09.2024 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 21.7N 90.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2024 132 22.6N 91.2W 1001 33
0000UTC 27.09.2024 144 23.2N 91.9W 1001 32
1200UTC 27.09.2024 156 25.3N 92.1W 1000 34
0000UTC 28.09.2024 168 26.9N 92.8W 1000 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210413


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 210413

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 54.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2024 24.7N 54.9W WEAK
12UTC 21.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 42.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072024

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.09.2024 26.4N 42.6W WEAK
12UTC 21.09.2024 26.0N 42.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2024 26.0N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.09.2024 26.9N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.9N 56.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2024 27.9N 56.0W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2024 29.7N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2024 31.6N 54.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 37.5N 67.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2024 36.3N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2024 35.5N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2024 33.4N 67.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2024 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 21.7N 90.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2024 22.6N 91.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2024 23.2N 91.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2024 25.3N 92.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2024 26.9N 92.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210413


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 181612

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 18.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 49.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2024 0 24.6N 49.1W 1009 31
0000UTC 19.09.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 27.0N 52.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2024 0 27.0N 52.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 19.09.2024 12 26.5N 53.2W 1005 30
1200UTC 19.09.2024 24 25.9N 54.4W 1005 30
0000UTC 20.09.2024 36 25.6N 55.3W 1004 25
1200UTC 20.09.2024 48 25.8N 55.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 21.09.2024 60 26.1N 56.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.09.2024 72 26.6N 56.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 22.09.2024 84 27.1N 56.9W 1005 22
1200UTC 22.09.2024 96 27.8N 57.0W 1004 22
0000UTC 23.09.2024 108 28.9N 56.1W 1004 22
1200UTC 23.09.2024 120 30.9N 55.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 24.09.2024 132 33.1N 53.2W 1005 30
1200UTC 24.09.2024 144 35.0N 49.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 25.09.2024 156 37.4N 42.6W 1004 34
1200UTC 25.09.2024 168 39.5N 33.6W 1001 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 38.9N 69.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2024 72 38.9N 69.2W 1006 31
0000UTC 22.09.2024 84 37.9N 68.2W 1006 32
1200UTC 22.09.2024 96 38.0N 68.2W 1004 34
0000UTC 23.09.2024 108 36.1N 69.6W 1003 39
1200UTC 23.09.2024 120 34.3N 69.8W 1004 32
0000UTC 24.09.2024 132 32.4N 69.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 24.09.2024 144 30.9N 69.6W 1010 21
0000UTC 25.09.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 18.9N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2024 168 19.4N 86.0W 1004 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 181611


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 180411

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 18.09.2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON ANALYSED POSITION : 20.4N 48.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2024 0 20.4N 48.2W 1010 21
1200UTC 18.09.2024 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 28.1N 50.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2024 0 28.1N 50.4W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.09.2024 12 27.2N 51.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 19.09.2024 24 26.5N 53.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 19.09.2024 36 26.1N 53.9W 1005 29
0000UTC 20.09.2024 48 26.0N 54.4W 1004 25
1200UTC 20.09.2024 60 25.9N 55.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 21.09.2024 72 26.4N 55.3W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.09.2024 84 27.0N 56.4W 1006 23
0000UTC 22.09.2024 96 27.5N 56.5W 1006 22
1200UTC 22.09.2024 108 28.1N 56.7W 1006 20
0000UTC 23.09.2024 120 29.2N 56.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 23.09.2024 132 31.5N 55.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 24.09.2024 144 33.4N 54.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 24.09.2024 156 35.4N 51.7W 1008 30
0000UTC 25.09.2024 168 34.9N 49.8W 1010 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 26.5N 44.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2024 72 26.0N 43.6W 1008 21
1200UTC 21.09.2024 84 25.6N 43.1W 1008 21
0000UTC 22.09.2024 96 25.7N 43.6W 1009 18
1200UTC 22.09.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 180411


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 171500
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Gordon Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024

Gordon is no longer a tropical cyclone. The convective structure has
degraded since the overnight hours, with only small bursts of
convection occurring to the south and east of the estimated center
position. More importantly, recent scatterometer data indicate the
system does not possess a well-defined, trackable center, with an
elongated structure more indicative of a trough of low pressure.
Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of
Gordon. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the
scatterometer data, although this could be generous.

The remnants are expected to move northward to north-northeastward
over open waters during the next few days while rotating around a
non-tropical low currently positioned to its north. While the
structure is unlikely to improve in the short term, there are
indications in the global models that the remnants of Gordon could
redevelop later this week once the system moves into a more moist
environment and gains some distance from the nearby frontal low. NHC
will continue to monitor the remnants of Gordon for signs of
organization and the possibility of redevelopment later this week.
Information on the potential for regeneration will be contained in
the Tropical Weather Outlook.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.5N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF GORDON
12H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 171458
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Gordon Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024

...GORDON DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Gordon were located near
latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are forecast to
move northward to north-northeastward at a similar forward speed for
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 171457
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 49.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170845
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024

After becoming a bit better organized Monday evening with persistent
deep convection over the low-level center, Gordon's convective
organization has been steady during the overnight hours. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates range from 25-35 kt, while recent
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 31-36 kt range. Based
on these intensity estimates as well as taking into account earlier
ASCAT data, Gordon's intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The ASCAT passes Monday evening helped locate the center, but the
center has been difficult to find since that time. Recent satellite
images suggest that the center may be near the northern edge of the
central convective area. The motion is still estimated to be
westward, or 265/3 kt, but models indicate that the northward turn
should begin within the next few hours. A frontal low currently
located several hundred miles north of Gordon has created a weakness
in the subtropical ridge, which will induce a northward and then a
north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed during the
next couple of days. Gordon should pass east of this feature
Wednesday night or Thursday as it is steered by mid-level high
pressure to the east of the cyclone. Some of the global models show
this ridge building to the northeast of Gordon, which could cause
Gordon to bend more toward the north in 4 to 5 days. There are
significant speed differences as well as cross-track spread at days
4 and 5. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one
through 48 h, but is nudged to the west of the previous official
forecast beyond 48 h, closer to the latest consensus aids. During
the 3 to 5 day time period, the NHC forecast is slower than the
latest GFS model and well to the east of the latest ECMWF global
model.

Gordon's intensity forecast is challenging. Environmental
conditions appear moist enough for Gordon to at least maintain its
intensity during the next couple of days, given the weak vertical
wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. However, global
models do not show Gordon intensifying much during the next couple
of days as the cyclone interacts with a weakening non-tropical low,
currently located north of Gordon. Some strengthening is likely
once Gordon moves past this feature, but there is quite a bit of
uncertainty in what the upper-level winds will look like over the
cyclone in the day 3 to 5 period. The GFS model shows moderate
southwesterly shear during that time, whereas the ECMWF and other
global models suggest stronger shear from the west or northwest,
which would be a less favorable direction and would likely prevent
further strengthening. As a result, there is a large spread in the
intensity guidance, leading to below average confidence in the NHC
intensity forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and remains near the low end of the intensity guidance
through the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 19.0N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 21.7N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 23.3N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 25.1N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 26.3N 45.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 27.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 30.0N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170838
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 49.0W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 49.0W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.4N 48.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.7N 48.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.3N 47.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.1N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.3N 45.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 27.6N 44.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 30.0N 44.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2024

...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 49.0W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 49.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected today, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gordon could gradually re-intensify and become a tropical storm
again later this week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 170238
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

Gordon has become a little better organized this evening, with
convection intensifying around the center-- a marked improvement
from 24 hours ago. A pair of scatterometer passes from 00-01 UTC
showed believable maximum winds of 25-30 kt, and 30 kt is chosen
out of continuity from the last advisory.

The depression has been creeping westward recently, estimated at
about 3 kt. As mid-level high pressure builds to the northeast of
the cyclone, the tropical cyclone should turn northward on Tuesday
and move faster to the north-northeast for the next few days. A
frontal wave currently seen about 10 degrees north of Gordon should
also cause the cyclone to accelerate midweek as Gordon moves around
that feature. The biggest change to the guidance this evening is
that most are a bit faster, so the latest NHC prediction is trended
in that way.

Modest increases in low- to mid-level moisture around Gordon are
shown in the model fields during the next couple of days. In
combination with generally low shear during that time, these
factors suggest that Gordon will be primed for a comeback, and the
intensity guidance generally calls for it to become a tropical storm
again around midweek. The low-shear conditions should last
through late week, so the NHC forecast is nudged upward from 2-4
days, a touch below the model consensus. The shear could get
rather prohibitive by day 5 so the intensity forecast is leveled
off then, but considerable uncertainty exists at that time frame,
with model guidance ranging from a depression to a category 2
hurricane.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 19.0N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 22.3N 47.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 24.2N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 25.8N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 27.5N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 170236
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 48.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.8N 48.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.3N 47.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.2N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 44.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 29.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 48.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 170236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND COULD
RE-INTENSIFY BY MIDWEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 48.8W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected during the next day or so, followed by
a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon could gradually
re-intensify by midweek and become a tropical storm again.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 162140
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 48.5W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 162033
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

Gordon is producing only a few sporadic bursts of deep convection,
mainly over the southern and eastern portion of its circulation.
The vertical wind shear does not appear to be very strong at this
time, as evidenced by the relatively slow motions of the cirrus
clouds over the system. Since the cyclone is situated over a
warm ocean, the suppression of convection is probably due to a
stable air mass and/or dry air. The advisory intensity is held at
30 kt in accordance with an objective estimate of 32 kt from
UW-CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number of 30 kt
from TAFB.

Gordon continues to move slowly westward with a current motion
estimate of 270/5 kt. A high pressure area that was north of the
system over the past couple of days is shifting westward, and being
replaced by a mid-level trough within the next day or two. Also,
there is a frontal cyclone located about 10 degrees to the north of
Gordon. This feature, along with the trough, should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northward and north-northeastward during
the next couple of days. Although Gordon is expected to at least
briefly interact with the frontal wave, the global model guidance
indicates that it will retain its identity and move farther
north-northeastward over the Atlantic during the forecast period.
The official forecast is shifted a little more to the east of the
previous NHC prediction and is close to the corrected model
consensus, HCCA.

Output from the statistical-dynamical SHIPS models shows some
increase in the low- to mid-level relative humidity and also
suggests some increase in instability during the forecast period.
The SHIPS output also shows generally low to moderate vertical
shear for the next few days. The official forecast shows some
restrengthening after 48 hours, but not as much of an intensity
increase as called for by the SHIPS/LGEM predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 19.0N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 20.3N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 21.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 22.8N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 24.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 27.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 29.0N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 162032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.3N 48.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.6N 46.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 162032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 48.5W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 48.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest and north is expected during the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 161446
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 48.1W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 48.1W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.2N 48.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.6N 48.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.1N 47.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 45.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 28.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161447
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 48.1W
ABOUT 985 MI...1580 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 48.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slower
forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by
a turn toward the north and north-northeast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 161447
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

Deep convection has persisted, since last night, mainly over the
eastern portion of the circulation of Gordon. This activity is
limited and not particularly well organized however, with the
coldest cloud tops near -70 deg C. Based on a subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB and objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is set at 30 kt.

The cyclone has been moving generally westward over the past day or
so while embedded in the flow on the south and southeast side of a
mid-level ridge. During the next couple of days, the ridge is
forecast to shift westward and weaken while a trough digs to the
north and northeast of Gordon. This flow evolution, along with the
interaction with a developing frontal cyclone about 10 degrees to
the north of the tropical cyclone, should result in a turn toward
the north in 36 hours or so. Some of the global models are showing
a partial merger of Gordon with the frontal wave, but it appears
likely that the system will remain distinct as a tropical cyclone
throughout the forecast period. The official track forecast has
been shifted somewhat to the east of the previous NHC prediction,
and is near or west of the dynamical model consensus tracks.

Westerly vertical wind shear over Gordon has abated, but the
environment is still a bit dry. The dynamical guidance indicates a
further decrease in shear with some increase in low- to mid-level
humidities in a few days while the system remains over warm waters.
Therefore, restrengthening is forecast to begin around 60 hours,
in general agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 19.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 19.2N 48.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 21.6N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 23.1N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 26.0N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 28.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 47.5W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
westward motion is expected during the next day or so, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any
time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160844
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024

The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east
side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA
proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is
near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective
intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of
ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in
the previous NHC advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt.
Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated
to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should
continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today.
Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is
forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness
in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change,
Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn
toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The
consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right
and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that
direction.

Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental
dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself
overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is
forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few
days, although some slight moistening of the environment is
possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain
relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could
degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the
next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem
to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's
circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3
to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the
non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5
days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to
the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon
will survive in the short term.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160843
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.5W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 47.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 46.8W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 46.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west
to west-southwest motion is expected during the next day or so, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next
several days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low
at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160235
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While
the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the
convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely
meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and
objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the
initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory.

The tropical depression continues to move south of due west,
estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day
or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to
mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a
significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop,
related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards
Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical
cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn
poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast
period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and
faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once
again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior
advisory.

Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and
this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days.
In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant
low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more
prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is
forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is
expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to
re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take
advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC
intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside
from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive
in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160233
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 46.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 46.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

...GORDON BARLEY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 46.8W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 46.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west
to west-southwest motion is expected during the next day or so, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next
several days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low
at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 152030
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 46.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

...GORDON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 46.1W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 46.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west to
west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 152031
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon's center remains well displaced to the west of the area of
deep convection. There recently was a convective burst near the
center, and it remains to be seen if this is an intermittent pulse
of convection or if the system will try to maintain convection.
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have decreased between 25
to 35 kt. Using an average of these estimates, the intensity for
this advisory is set to 30 kt, and Gordon has weakened into a
tropical depression.

The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 260/7 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level
ridge to to the north. The steering flow is expected to weaken as
the ridge to the north becomes less pronounced, which should result
in Gordon slowing down considerably. By late in the forecast period,
a trough develops to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected
to cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, nudged
slightly to the right and a little faster towards the end of the
period near the HFIP corrected consensus.

Gordon continues to experience strong westerly vertical wind shear
and is within fairly stable airmass. It still remains possible that
the the system could degenerate into a remnant low, as it struggles
to produce convection. The environmental conditions improve towards
the end of the forecast period that depicts that the system could
re-strengthen. The current intensity forecast is similar to the
previous forecast but does show Gordon becoming a tropical storm
again towards the end of the period, if it can survive the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 19.1N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.2N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 19.5N 49.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 24.9N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151456
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

...GORDON POSES NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 45.5W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1855 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.5 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to
west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today
or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 151457
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Gordon's center remains displaced at least 120 n mi to the west of a
ragged-looking area of deep convection. Using a shear pattern from
satellite imagery, Dvorak data T-numbers correspond to an intensity
below tropical storm strength. However,scatterometer data, which
did not completely sample the circulation, suggest that the system's
intensity may still be close to to 35 kt, so Gordon is kept at
tropical storm status for this advisory.

The cyclone continues to move west-southwestward, with a current
motion estimate of 250/8 kt. Gordon is being steered by a mid-level
high pressure system to its north and northwest. This high is
forecast to gradually weaken which should result in a slowing of the
cyclone's forward speed over the next few days. In 3-4 days, the
high is predicted to shift farther west, resulting in a turn toward
the north. By late in the forecast period, a broad trough becomes
established to the west-northwest of Gordon. This is expected to
cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the north-northeast. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is
reasonably close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus.

Gordon has been experiencing strong westerly vertical wind shear
for the past couple of days, associated with a large upper-level
trough over the eastern Atlantic. The global models show this
trough moving eastward, away from the tropical cyclone. As a
result, there may be some relaxation of the shear over the next
several days. Although Gordon has been disrupted so much by the
shear that it could degenerate into a remnant low soon, the more
conducive upper-level environment predicted by the dynamical
guidance could result in some restrengthening. This is also
indicated by the latest SHIPS model output. As a compromise, the
official forecast shows little change in strength through the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 19.2N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.1N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 18.9N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 19.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.4N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 21.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 151455
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 46.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 49.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.0N 50.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.4N 50.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150900
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.8W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

Due to strong westerly shear, deep convection associated with
Gordon is located at least 120 n mi to the east of the exposed
center of circulation. An ASCAT-C pass from last evening revealed
that maximum winds were barely tropical storm force just to the
north of the center, and the latest satellite intensity estimates
suggest Gordon may have weakened further since that time. The
initial intensity is held at 35 kt for now, but additional ASCAT
data should help us re-assess Gordon's maximum winds later this
morning.

Gordon has been moving west-southwestward (255/9 kt), steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is forecast to
turn westward later today, but the ridge is expected to weaken
during the next few days, which should cause Gordon to slow down
considerably. A mid- to upper-level trough is expected to amplify
northeast of the Leeward Islands by the middle of the week, and
Gordon is likely to respond by slowing down to speeds of less than
5 kt while gradually turning northwestward and then northward on
days 3-5. The updated NHC forecast has been shifted slightly south
of the previous prediction during the first 3 days of the forecast,
trending toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and then shows a
slightly sharper recurvature on days 4 and 5.

Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident
upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a
tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models
show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple
of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate
into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If
Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a
little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150838
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 44.8W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 44.8 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to
west-southwest motion is expected during the next few days, with
Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gordon is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today,
and it could degenerate into a remnant low at any time during the
next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150238
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Gordon's surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening
and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective
mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the
past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this
advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity
T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and
global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle
and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh
thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that
the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as
it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the
surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is
expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric
conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity
forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5
in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The
Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to
show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently,
subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global
models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above.

Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or
245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge
extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North
Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west
during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response
to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone
approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually
turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This
forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone
will survive during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150236
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

...GORDON WEAKENS AND TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 43.8W
ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 43.8 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly
slower west-southwestward or westward motion is forecast during the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to become a depression later
tonight or on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150236
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 142032
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Over the past couple of hours, the center of Gordon had been
exposed to the west of the convective canopy. However, there have
been recent bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm
and the overall satellite presentation of the system has improved.
The environment surrounding Gordon is still unfavorable, with
moderate westerly vertical wind shear and a dry stable airmass
continuing to have some impact on the cyclone. Gordon is likely in
somewhat of a steady state, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt
for this advisory. This agrees with the subjective and objective
intensity estimates.

The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday,
as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more
stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of
the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement
with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued
to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is
possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough
by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps
Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could
be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future
advisories.

Gordon is tracking westward at 270/9 kt, and a gradual turn toward
the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the
next couple of days, in agreement with the latest track guidance. A
shortwave trough approaching from the northwest of Gordon will open
a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge and allow the tropical
cyclone to turn slowly northward. The new track forecast is nearly
the same as the previous forecast, except with a slightly slower
forward motion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 20.3N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 142031
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142031
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

...GORDON GOING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 42.9W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 42.9 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower
westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gordon is forecast to weaken tonight and become a tropical
depression on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 141444
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection.
This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind
shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also
struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite
these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows
the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is
the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees
with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The
scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical
storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In
the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs
of elongation.

The cyclone continues to move into a dry and stable airmass, which
in conjunction with the ongoing shear is forecast to induce
weakening today and tonight. Gordon is forecast to become a tropical
depression on Sunday. Thereafter, the forecast maintains the cyclone
as a tropical depression through the early part of next week, but it
is possible that the system degenerates into a remnant low or a
surface trough during that time. In fact, the GFS model indicates
convection could collapse as soon as tonight or early Sunday. The
ECMWF model maintains pulsing convection a bit longer. By the middle
of next week, the environment should become less hostile and allow
for some re-strengthening of Gordon. The intensity forecast is
largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains on the
lower end of the guidance beyond 72 h due to the uncertain future of
the cyclone.

Gordon is tracking westward 280/8 kt, and a gradual turn toward the
west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next
couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance.
Model spread increases beyond 72 h due to differences in intensity
and the overall structure of Gordon at that time. The current
forecast continues the system slowly west-southwestward due to lack
of steering flow. Towards the end of the forecast period, an
approaching shortwave trough will weaken the mid-level subtropical
ridge and would allow the system to turn northward. The updated
track forecast is close to the previous advisory near the simple
consensus aids, and shows a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north beyond Day 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141443
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 41.7W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 41.7 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower
westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gordon is forecast to continue to weaken and become a depression on
Sunday. Gradual re-strengthening is possible by the middle part of
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 141442
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 41.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 41.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140843
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

The center of Gordon appears to be racing out ahead of the deep
convective mass to its east in recent proxy-visible satellite
images. This appearance is consistent with moderate deep-layer
westerly shear over the cyclone as indicated by model soundings.
Earlier scatterometer data showed the extent of tropical-storm-force
winds was about 100 n mi in the northern semicircle of the storm.
The circulation on the southwest side of the storm was not as well
defined, with relatively weak winds and signs of elongation. A blend
of the latest subjective TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates and objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which
is also consistent with the scatterometer winds.

The sheared storm is moving into a drier and more stable air mass,
which is likely to induce some weakening during the next couple of
days. In fact, some models continue to show the possibility of
Gordon losing organized convection and degenerating to a remnant
low. The official NHC forecast brings Gordon to a depression in 24 h
but maintains it as a tropical cyclone for now. Environmental
conditions should become less hostile by the middle of next week,
and the NHC forecast indicates some re-strengthening could occur
during that time. This part of the forecast remains conservative,
as there are still several dynamical models that show little, if
any, re-intensification later next week.

Gordon appears to be moving west-northwestward (285/8 kt), but a
gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast over
the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track
guidance. Track forecast confidence decreases at days 3-5, where
the motion appears more sensitive to whether or not Gordon
restrengthens. A weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge is
forecast to develop, which would allow the system to gain some
latitude if its vertical depth matches that steering level.
However, a shallower system could continue moving slowly westward
within the low-level flow. The updated NHC forecast shows a more
gradual turn toward the northwest and north at days 3-5, in best
agreement with the TVCA simple consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 20.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140843
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024

...POORLY ORGANIZED GORDON MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN
WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 40.9W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 40.9 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly
slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is anticipated over the next day or so, and Gordon is
forecast to become a depression by early Sunday. Gradual
restrengthening is possible by the middle part of next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 40.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 40.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 42.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.7N 45.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 46.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 48.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 40.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 40.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

A 13/2045 UTC CSA RADARSAT Constellation Mission VH polarization
image indicated that Gordon's surface center was farther east than
previously indicated. Subsequently, the surface center has become
more obscured while the convective mass has expanded somewhat over
the western portion of the cyclone. A blend of the subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an
intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.

Although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows the westerly
shear gradually diminishing through the period, the dry, stable
thermodynamic surrounding environment is expected to be the primary
inhibiting parameter. Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low
around mid-period, although not shown explicitly in the NHC
forecast. Beyond day 3, the official forecast shows gradual
re-strengthening while atmospheric conditions become less hostile.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
based on the IVCN intensity consensus and below the Decay SHIPS
statistical guidance.

Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 280/8 kt
and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending
west-southwestward from high pressure over the Azores. The cyclone
should continue slowly toward the west to west-southwest during
the next 72 hours. Afterward, a break in the subtropical ridge over
the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid-
to upper-level trough. As Gordon approaches this growing weakness
in the ridge, the cyclone should turn toward the northwest and
north. This forecast track scenario, however, assumes that the
cyclone strengthens toward the end of the period. Only a slight
adjustment to the left of the previous forecast beyond day 3 was
made to lie closer to the TVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.8N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 19.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 19.4N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.1N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 21.2N 50.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140240
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

...GORDON A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 40.3W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a continued
westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early
Saturday, then Gordon should weaken to a depression by Saturday
evening. Gradual re-intensification is forecast by the middle part
of next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 132039
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

Gordon continues to produce a convective canopy of cold cloud
tops near -75 C mainly to the east of the center, due to some
moderate westerly wind shear. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
depicted some banding features forming as well. Subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have remained steady
around 35 kt. Thus, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm continues to deal with some westerly wind shear
and has about 18 hours before encountering a drier airmass across
the central tropical Atlantic. So the current forecast shows the
potential for some slight strengthening before the unfavorable
airmass. Models depict that the cyclones wind field will weaken and
the system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression. Simulated
satellite depicts that the cyclone will struggle convectively
through the middle part of the period and there is a chance that
Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official
forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire
forecast period. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the
system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear
environment.

Gordon is moving slightly slower toward the west-northwest at 290/9
kt. The system is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge
which will cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more
westward by tonight. This slow westward to west-southwestward motion
will continue through much of the forecast period. An amplified
trough is forecast to move to the north of Gordon towards the end of
the period which could cause a turn toward the northwest and
northward by the end of the period. However, there is quite a spread
in the model guidance towards the end of the period due to the
differences in intensity and if Gordon is able to regain strength
toward the end of the period. The latest NHC forecast track is
slightly to the left of the previous and near the simple consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 19.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.8N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.7N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 19.5N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 19.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 19.3N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.3N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.9N 49.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 132037
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 39.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 39.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.8N 40.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.7N 42.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.5N 44.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.4N 45.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 46.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.3N 47.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 49.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 49.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132037
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

...GORDON HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 39.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 39.5 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
westward is forecast by later tonight, with the system slowing down
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible today or tonight, before a
weakening trend begins on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 131440
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 38.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 38.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 38.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 38.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 131438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

While some west-northwesterly shear exists over the cyclone,
a combination of Dvorak satellite estimates and improved structure
on satellite imagery since earlier this morning has led to the
depression being upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon. The initial
wind speed is set to 35 kt, based on consensus Dvorak estimates
around that value.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest
(295/10 kt). While a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the
north of Gordon is becoming more pronounced due to the possible
retrogression of an upper low to its east-northeast, this appears to
be only slowing the storm down. The track guidance indicates that
the cyclone should turn westward by tonight and move slowly
throughout much of the forecast period. By days 4 and 5, an
amplifying shortwave trough to the north could cause Gordon to
gradually turn northwestward, assuming the system can re-intensify.
The official forecast is close to the previous prediction during the
first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward on days 3 through 5
following the latest model trends.

Gordon has some chance to intensify today before moving deeper into
the moisture-starved environment across the tropical Atlantic, and
some weakening is anticipated this weekend. While the shear isn't
expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week
is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could
degenerate into a remnant low. For now, the official forecast keeps
the system as a tropical cyclone for the entire forecast period.
Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system reaches a
slightly more moist, unstable and low-shear environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 19.8N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 42.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 20.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131436
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GORDON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 38.6W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 38.6 West. Gordon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and the
storm is expected to move more to the west this weekend and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected today before a
weakening trend begins on Saturday,

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 130836
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

The depression has an asymmetric structure due to moderate
west-northwesterly shear, with the center lying west of generally
shapeless convective clusters. Because there has largely been
little change in the system's organization, and there is quite a
range among the subjective and objective estimates, the intensity
remains 30 kt out of respect for continuity.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest
(290/12 kt). A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of
the depression is becoming more pronounced, and the track guidance
indicates that the system should turn westward by tonight and slow
down further through much of the forecast period as it moves across
the central tropical Atlantic. In fact, by days 4 and 5, an
amplifying shortwave trough to the north is likely to cause the
cyclone to crawl at speeds near or less than 5 kt and gradually turn
northwestward. The official forecast is close to the previous
prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward
on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends.

In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic
has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months.
The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the
depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an
even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to
continue struggling convectively. In fact, all of the global models
show the cyclone's wind field weakening over the weekend, with the
GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low.
For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for
the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple
of days. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system
reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 130835
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 37.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 38.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 130835
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY BUT STRUGGLES
LIKELY LIE AHEAD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 38.2W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 38.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A turn toward the west is forecast by tonight, with the
system gradually slowing down through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm later today, however
little change in strength overall is anticipated through the
weekend.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 130252
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 37.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 36.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 37.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 130252
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 37.0W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 37.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 130253
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

The depression has been holding steady this evening. After a lull
in the convective activity which exposed the low-level circulation,
thunderstorms have been building steadily to the east of the center.
Unfortunately, the scatterometer pass missed the core of the system
once again. The initial intensity remains at 30 kt, close to the
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

A subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is steering the
system west-northwestward at about 14 kt. As the ridge weakens
during the next few days, the cyclone should gradually slow and turn
more westward. There is still a large spread in the track guidance
envelope early next week, which seems partially related to the depth
of the vortex. The ECMWF solution shows a much stronger system that
turns the cyclone to the north sooner compared to the GFS and
GFS-based regional models showing a weaker system that moves faster
and stays in the low-level westerly flow. The latest NHC track
forecast has been nudged a little to the south and lies between the
previous prediction and the consensus aids.

Marginal environmental conditions appear to be preventing the
depression from making any appreciable intensity changes. Visible
satellite imagery from earlier today showed a band of Saharan dust
wrapping around the northern semicircle of the circulation. The
intensity guidance has shifted downward again this cycle, with many
models showing a steady-to-weakening system over the next 3-4 days.
By the end of the forecast period, there is quite a bit of spread in
the intensity guidance as noted earlier. The latest NHC intensity
forecast has been decreased slightly but remains on the high side of
the various aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.7N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 19.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 40.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.7N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 19.7N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.6N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 122022
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

Tropical Depression Seven appears somewhat more organized on
satellite imagery this afternoon, with a compact circulation
and a couple bursts of deeper convection near the center, though it
has been exposed for portions of the day. Subjective and objective
Dvorak numbers indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical
storm. However, the initial intensity will stay 30 kt, at the lower
end of the estimates, until we get a little more definitive
evidence of a tropical storm.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. The GFS-based guidance has
trended much farther west and faster, showing a weakening system at
long range. However, the ECMWF and its ensemble members still show
a risk of a stronger system, so the forecast will stay on the
northeastern side of the track guidance. The new NHC forecast is
faster and left of the previous one owing to the bulk of the
guidance shifts during this cycle.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance is even lower than the
last cycle. Slight strengthening seems most probable within the
marginal environment, and the forecast continues to show a 45-kt
peak in 5 days. There is also the potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The latest intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
one, on the high side of the guidance envelope.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hurley/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 122021
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 35.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 35.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 35.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 44.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.8N 46.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.3N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 35.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HURLEY/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 122021
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 35.9W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 35.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hurley/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 121449
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

Tropical Depression Seven looks more organized on satellite imagery
this morning, with a compact circulation and a small curved band
with some deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak numbers
indicate the system is close to becoming a tropical storm. However,
given the relatively small size of ongoing convection near the
center, the initial intensity was conservatively held at 30 knots,
or at the lower end of the estimates.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading, and the
general motion is expected to continue over the next 2-3 days. The
forward speed should gradually slow as the subtropical ridge to the
north of the system weakens. Track guidance diverges considerably
early next week, related to uncertainties with an amplifying trough
over the north-central Atlantic Ocean and another ridge centered
northeast of the Leeward Islands. This track forecast stays close
to the global model consensus and places less weight on the
regional hurricane models which depict a considerably weaker
and less organized system. This produces a track forecast that is
slightly faster and to the left of the previous forecast.

While environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for gradual
strengthening, with low-moderate vertical wind shear and
marginally warm SSTs, intensity guidance came in lower for this
cycle. We show the system becoming a tropical storm in the next
day, followed by the intensity only slowly increasing to 45 knots in
the next five days. However, there is potential for greater
strengthening beyond what is shown early next week as the cyclone
will be in an environment characterized by lower shear, warmer SSTs
around 28C, slightly more instability, but plentiful dry air aloft.
The new forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but
above the latest model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.8N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 121448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 34.6W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 34.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Bann/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 121447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 34.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 34.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 33.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.5N 36.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.2N 38.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.7N 42.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.1N 44.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 46.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN/LAMERS/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 120846
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

The system has changed little in organization overnight, with
limited deep convection and slight banding features. An
AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still
somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt
and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30
kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is
also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from
UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an
estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion
with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the
forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the
ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to
the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4-
to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow
motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus
solutions.

Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual
strengthening during the next few days, with low- to
moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the
models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of
the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass
over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but
shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 120846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 33.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 33.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed
is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 120845
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0900 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 33.0W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 32.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 33.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 120235
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the
tropical depression this evening. Earlier microwave imagery from
SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern
and western portion of the circulation. Subjective estimates from
TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based
on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the
southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern
Atlantic. This motion should continue for the next day or so until
the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an
amplifying mid-level trough. By the end of the forecast period, the
system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge.
Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance
due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north. The
latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and
lies near the various consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual
strengthening for the next couple of days. Afterwards The
depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could
experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions. The
long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few
changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies
near HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 16.5N 31.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 120234
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.3W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.3W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 30.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 31.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 120234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 31.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 31.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward
speed is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 112043
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

Satellite images show there has been little change with the
depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded
some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind
speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and
subjective Dvorak classifications.

The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the
motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward
speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying
mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is
that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to
recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward).
The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future
adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend
(continuity prevents a larger change).

Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of
days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time.
Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air
intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still
a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track
uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and
the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 112042
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT
OR ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 30.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 30.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward
speed is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 112041
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 29.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 30.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 111455
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic
today. This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a
closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on
TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also
indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath
the mid-level center based upon visible imagery The initial
intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data.

The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt. The system
should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days
with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of
the Azores. Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens
beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more
complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between
hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level
ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser
Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North
Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the
depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward
will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly
track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast
was placed just south of consensus this forecast period.

Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its
development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will
generally be around 27C. Thus gradually intensification is shown
for the first couple of days. However, shear is forecast to
increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions.
This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models
which show more modest intensification than the statistical
dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on
how much latitude the system gains.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 111454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 28.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward
speed is anticipated over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 111452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 28.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 28.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 27.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 28.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE